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Housing bubble.
 

[Closed] Housing bubble.

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Where? I'll buy it right now.
Whitley and Oxford Road areas of Reading for a starter.

Our flat in Woosehill in Wokingham is a 3 bed + rooftop garden + garage and only valued at £250k.

are you sure there isn't a '0' missing from that price?

Nope, there was also converted/renovated watermill near Skinningrove on for the same price, that didn't sell and eventually went to auction. Mouseprice hasn't got a record for it so I don't know if it sold at auction either.

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/old-kilton-mill/mill-lane/skinningrove/saltburn-by-the-sea/ts13-4aj/36163762


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 12:55 pm
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The FT had a statistic the other day 54,000 - £1 million properties are planned or under construction, slightly less than 4,000 in that price bracket sold last year - what do you think is going to happen to prices?


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:01 pm
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thisisnotaspoon - Member

Nope,

gosh.

in an attempt to see something positive in all this, London stamp duty now generates something like £2.5Billion / year.

(national total approx £5billion+)


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:02 pm
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[quote="thisisnotaspoon"]Whitley and Oxford Road areas of Reading for a starter.
Can I borrow your bargepole ? I don't want to use mine !


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:12 pm
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London stamp duty now generates something like £2.5Billion / year.

The sale of one house in London generated more stamp duty than the whole of the city of liverpool.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:15 pm
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Can I borrow your bargepole ? I don't want to use mine !

Whitley has some nicer areas now, Oxford road on the other hand, some of the purpose built flats are Ok, with their locked parking garages etc, but.........

Still, under £300k you're looking at 2-3 beds in Wokingham or Lower Earley, Ok it's not a Farmstead in Teesside or a mannor house in surrey, but it's an Ok house in one of the more expensive postcodes locally, and affordable on a Nurse/Teacher/Fireman salary.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:18 pm
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"thisisnotaspoon » Whitley and Oxford Road areas of Reading for a starter.

Can I borrow your bargepole ? I don't want to use mine !"

reminds me of my mates when it was car driving time i want my first car but it must be a nearly new white audi with black wheels..... Realistically they got what they could afford.

How ever these days you can rent a white audi with black wheels quite cheaply compared to the repayments on one that isnt new so why not rent the nicer car and live the dream while demolishing the chances of owning your own white audi with black wheels.

guess its the same as i could buy a house in northfield and wake up to stolen white audis on the road outside every other day and spend 80k for a 2 up 2 down.....


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:21 pm
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every person I know lives around here, I work in Fetcham, my entire life is here and I'm absolutely going to have to throw all of that away and uproot entirely if I want to own my own home.

Fancy a nice over-shop duplex in the heart of Leatherhead? Yours for £220k.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:27 pm
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Still, under £300k ... affordable on a Nurse/Teacher/Fireman salary.

only if they have a huge deposit from somewhere ?


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:31 pm
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There are still <£200k houses, they're just not in nice desirable leafy suburbs.
Where? I'll buy it right now.

I was going to suggest Aldershat but even 10 years ago pokey wee 2 bed terraces were knocking on the door of £200k.
You might find a flat but I doubt you'll find a house for that price.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:32 pm
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Just out of interest why do people think a crash would be such a good thing?
If you can afford the payments and don't need to move then you have lost some notional value and it won't feel good. You would probably be less inclined to sell and may drift into a BTL because you can move on for less.
If there is a crash and people start defaulting then this hurts then banks which will in turn hurt everyone again. Also if houses start flooding onto the market due to defaults many of these would go to the cash buyers and the BTL corporations who seem to have the estate agents in their pockets.
Prices are driven by demand. This demand comes from proximity to work/schools etc. In an urban area without demolishing streets of houses and replacing terraces with high rise apartments supply is mostly fixed. The type of financial crash that would bring down prices in the South East would have such horrible repercussions that the reduced prices wouldn't compensate for.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:34 pm
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cornholio98 - Member

Just out of interest why do people think a crash would be such a good thing?

1) if people can buy cheap houses, they'll have more to spend in the 'real' economy, rather than handing over 30%+ of their take home pay to a landlord.

2) i/we would like a slightly bigger house, maybe with a garage/shed, but nothing grand. Right now we'd need to borrow an extra £100k (or more) to pay for it. We can't really afford that, so we're sort of stuck. If prices came down, the gap would be smaller, and we'd be moving.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:36 pm
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Just for a bit of balance on the South east, I've lived in a 3 bed terrace on the edge of Chatham for 10 years and the values here are probably only up 20-30 percent since I bought. Yes it has a certain reputation but it's not all bad and it is good to commute from. Lots of development work in this area is one reason but houses here still sell within a week.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:45 pm
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Just out of interest why do people think a crash would be such a good thing?

To piggyback this, where I live in Surrey, I would say the vast majority of the home owners here got their houses back when they were dirt cheap and it was the area to be.

They've since remortgaged to their eyeballs so they can buy their flash BMW's and Audi's and live like the rest of the folk in the street. There is very much a keeping up with the Jones' attitude here and people are willing to fully indebt themselves so that they can.

I've got money, actual real money with real numbers however they don't match the numbers that are attached to the houses here.

However I've got more money than that guy down the street with a 3 bed house that's "worth" £500k with a BMW parked on the drive.

A crash would turf these people out and allow me to jump in honestly with my actual money.

It's an extremely sad state of affairs where one would wish life changing consequences on others for ones own benefit, but alas this is the state of affairs for a young person in this country today. We're absolutely buggered.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:48 pm
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A crash would not be a good thing insofar as it will collapse the UK economy.
Blame the central banks and the politicians for creating this mess.
It can't end well either way.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:49 pm
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If prices came down, the gap would be smaller, and we'd be moving.

that’s assuming you have job, a house price crash would be triggered by an event that would impact on many other things not just house prices. currencies, lending, interest rates, public spending etc etc. not singling you out but people can be very myopic and only look at their immediate wants/needs. the bigger picture is that the government doesn't want a crash but a managed flattening of prices and single digit increases and will do everything it can to facilitate that with the mechanisms it has to hand like stamp duty, interest rates, help to buy schemes and taxation.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:50 pm
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i'd like a slightly bigger house, with a garage. right now i need to borrow an extra £100k to pay for it. we can't really afford that, so we're sort of stuck. if prices came down, the gap would be smaller.

But also the value of your current home could drop wiping out any of the payments you have already made potentially leaving you in negative equity. Well unless you have already paid off a good chunk of it.
Massive swings in pricing generally do not help maintain stability.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:51 pm
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I was going to suggest Aldershat but even 10 years ago pokey wee 2 bed terraces were knocking on the door of £200k.
You might find a flat but I doubt you'll find a house for that price.

Fancy a nice over-shop duplex in the heart of Leatherhead? Yours for £220k.

😀


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:51 pm
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However I've got more money than that guy down the street with a 3 bed house that's "worth" £500k with a BMW parked on the drive.

No, you haven't. What they have is an asset. What you have is pocket money. You cannot afford what they have, ergo they are wealthier.

A crash would turf these people out and allow me to jump in honestly with my actual money.

These people have paid a mortgage for years. They got nothing for free, and just because you have saved for a couple of years it doesn't somehow make you better. Nothing dishonest about it.

It's an extremely sad state of affairs where one would wish life changing consequences on others for ones own benefit, but alas this is the state of affairs for a young person in this country today. We're absolutely buggered.

What is sad is the sense of entitlement. Nobody deserves to own a house any more than they do a BMW or an Audi. There are affordable houses all over the UK, if you REALLY want to get in the ladder, move.

Do you know what a housing price crash would do to the country? Many, many people would not have jobs, the banks would be going pop (and not lending). People would be homeless, families out on the street. But you'd be able to afford so I suppose that's OK yeah? 🙄


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 1:59 pm
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Still, under £300k ... affordable on a Nurse/Teacher/Fireman salary.
😯 What do you think they get paid!?

A nurse starts on £21k. The highest a 'normal' nurse will be getting is £28,180. Senior nurses (ward managers, specialist nurse practitioners etc) might be a band 6 or 7 ( https://www.healthcareers.nhs.uk/about/careers-nhs/nhs-pay-and-benefits/agenda-change-pay-rates) but the core staff will be a 5.

A £270k mortgage (90% on a £300k house) at 5% over 25 years is £18,940 per year. So it's affordable if the nurse doesn't pay any tax, save any money, pay into a pension or buy anything, ever apart from the rail season ticket to get to work.

If it's two people earning £25k each, then one person will be spending almost every bit of their take home pay on the mortgage. Leaving ~£20k for a couple to live off. And then one of them goes on mat/paternity when a kid arrives and they drop down to statutory mat/pat pay....

And that's assuming that they can get £30k from somewhere to put the deposit down in the first place.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:08 pm
 DT78
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So....we moved to Wales.

Definitely one to consider. Should redundancy happen I would be very tempted. Work wise there just doesn't seem much in the area whenever I've looked.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:08 pm
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you keep siting this .... how ever as the tax will go up across the board - youll find rents go up across the board - even those not affected by it will use it as an excuse to put their rents up to match the others so they get more money in...... cutthroat business.

Sorry absolute rubbish - what rental apartment or house is not already currently rented out for the [u]maximum[/u] that the local market can sustain? Landlords can't simply put the rent up to whatever they feel, well I guess they can I suppose, it all depends whether they want someone to live in it I guess?

People who don't own houses keep saying that the prices will crash as if they say it enough, they will. They will go down a bit, and they will go up a bit. There is very very little chance that this magic crash that renters are hoping for will ever happen. There is too much money at stake.

Wouldn't be so sure of that. Times are changing and the young are becoming very disenfranchised with the whole situation. Students are currently leaving universities with an average of £44k in debt. As more and more young people reach voting age then I'd expect government policy to gradually swing in their favour. If market forces haven't already taken their toll before then (which I suspect they will have), eventually they'll be too much money and votes at stake for house prices not to fall or be forced to fall to affordable levels.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:16 pm
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What is sad is the sense of entitlement

There is no sense of entitlement. I understand people have worked hard for what they have, as have I. I don't think I deserve it anymore than they do, but I do want to buy a house in this area and the downfall of the housing market in this area would absolutely be to my benefit.

But you'd be able to afford so I suppose that's OK yeah?

Yes, that is OK. I don't want anyone else to lose out, I certainly wouldn't wish bad times on anyone, but my generation are going to have a constant uphill battle trying to establish ourselves on the property ladder. Given the option between someone else doing well and myself, I choose me. Would you not?


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:18 pm
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However I've got more money than that guy down the street with a 3 bed house that's "worth" £500k with a BMW parked on the drive.
A crash would turf these people out and allow me to jump in honestly with my actual money.

Just out of interest, you say you can jump in with real money if the price drops. I assume this means buy without mortgage as if you had the "real" money to afford the payments as the guy down the street already does. If you have such a large amount of free cash sitting around why are you still renting?

Not meaning to get at you but the situation is that if you have money to get out of renting then it is generally a better (but much less flexible) option. Rather than hoping for a crash and comparing yourself to everyone around you is it not better to focus on doing the best for yourself in the current market?


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:25 pm
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only if they have a huge deposit from somewhere ?

Same way I did, live in a cheap rental and save.

If it's two people earning £25k each, then one person will be spending almost every bit of their take home pay on the mortgage. Leaving ~£20k for a couple to live off. And then one of them goes on mat/paternity when a kid arrives and they drop down to statutory mat/pat pay....

I'll bite again (seeing as I'm the hypothetical late 20's person, living in Reading, who owns one or two steps up the ladder from one of these houses, but isn't a nurse), you pay the mortgage and live on the remainder. My net income after the house related stuff is paid is a heck of a lot less than £20k/2 per year, in fact it's less than half that.

As for ever increasing house prices, I think we're approaching a ceiling. The demand is being set by people maxing out with 30 year mortgages taking up the available supply. Prices can't rise higher as there's no one to buy them. You can still move up the ladder at that, it just won't be by "I made £200k on my house value in 5 years" type money, it'll be back to "I got a promotion at work and can afford a bigger mortgage". Those people aren't going to go away, so a crash will only occur if the mortgages dry up (which could happen), but with the oil price rock bottom I don't see an economic recovery in the short term and no associated interest rate rise.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:26 pm
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Given the option between someone else doing well and myself, I choose me. Would you not?

It really depends on others resultant loss. If I mugged a charity collector, I'd be £XX better off. Lots would be worse off but I choose me.
You are clearly an extremely selfish individual. You'll probably earn enough to buy a house quite soon. Until then, nobody owes you anything. Move or rent.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:36 pm
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Just out of interest why do people think a crash would be such a good thing?

As said above, people are pumping their money into property which on the face of it is a good idea, but high house prices means that more disposable goes into mortgages and into assets. But when do those assets get realised? You die, and assuming you die quickly and at a good age it goes to your kids. But they're in their 50s at this point and are financially stable, so they pass it onto their kids who are just starting out. And they will probably (or should) end up putting it towards their first house, where the money ripples up the chain eventually to someone buying a house from an old person who's just died.

So our disposable income is going round and round in circles. High house prices are sucking up wealth like a black hole which, when the crash comes, will simply eliminate it.

If however we had that money to spend on other things, it'd be working for the economy. We'd be buying say, consumer electronics. Well that industry would then grow, have spare money to spend on R&D, produce technological developments which could benefit mankind.

OR, if you don't like that potentially un-eco friendly outcome, we might have more money to spend on food so we'd buy more organic food or that from smaller independent producers; we might pay the extra for the eco friendly or ethical product; we might have solar panels installed - thereby driving those industries forward.

Bottom line - the more people are on the breadline due to housing costs, the less things will change.

The demand is being set by people maxing out with 30 year mortgages taking up the available supply. Prices can't rise higher as there's no one to buy them

That hasn't happened in other countries, like Japan. There are many more ways to fund a house than a simple mortgage. I knew someone even in 2000 in London whose cash-rich brother invested in her house. He put down something like £100k on the basis he'd get an appropriate proportion of the sale back when she sold. I bet he made a killing too.

And then there are the parents dying and leaving £6-800k houses in the SE. That allows you to buy more than 4x salary.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:39 pm
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Yes, that is OK. I don't want anyone else to lose out, I certainly wouldn't wish bad times on anyone, but my generation are going to have a constant uphill battle trying to establish ourselves on the property ladder. Given the option between someone else doing well and myself, I choose me. Would you not?

what is your generation ? the 20 somethings ? Im in that generation - as is TINAS i think.... we both just worked hard/saved hard/spent less.

Certainly sounds like the entitlement is strong in this one.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:40 pm
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It really depends on others resultant loss. If I mugged a charity collector, I'd be £XX better off. Lots would be worse off but I choose me.
You are clearly an extremely selfish individual. You'll probably earn enough to buy a house quite soon. Until then, nobody owes you anything. Move or rent.

What a ridiculous argument. I'm not proposing literal theft for my own benefit.

I'm proposing that perhaps a crash wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for me personally. It's not being selfish, it's capitalising on a good oppportunity for myself.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:41 pm
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what is your generation ? the 20 somethings ? Im in that generation - as is TINAS i think.... we both just worked hard/saved hard/spent less.

Yes. That is fantastic I'm glad you have managed to break the mould. Where abouts in England do you live out of curiosity?


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:42 pm
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I'm proposing that perhaps a crash wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for me personally

and you think a house price crash would only affect house prices? no other economic impact at all...


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:42 pm
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As more and more young people reach voting age then I'd expect government policy to gradually swing in their favour.

Got news for you - young people have been reaching voting age for centuries now... only this time more older people are still surviving longer. Older people are more likely to vote, so government policy will always favour the older generation.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:45 pm
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Why would i want to live in england ?


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:45 pm
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It's not being selfish, it's capitalising on a good oppportunity for myself.

Isn't that not the definition of being selfish? 😀


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:50 pm
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Yes. That is fantastic I'm glad you have managed to break the mould. Where abouts in England do you live out of curiosity?

The hypothetical leafy suburbs of Reading, or at least it will be in the next few years when the whole "south of the M4" development plan comes into being, looks like we'll be Lower Earley Mk2 by 2020, having moved out of the even more expensive Wokingham.

as is TINAS i think
Clinging on by the skin of my teeth, turning 30's the new 21 right? I may just go hide in a cave an pretend growing up isn't happening.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 2:55 pm
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I'm glad you have managed to break the mould.
Erm... That is the mould. Those of us who bought in the 80s and 90s lived on beans & charity shop clothes so we could buy a flat in a crappy area. No car, no mobile, few nights out, trying to get a promotion / pay rise before interest rates went up again. Once we'd done that and saved a bit, then we could be selective about where to buy second time around. Your first property is little more than a deposit savings scheme.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:00 pm
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Certainly sounds like the entitlement is strong in this one.

On the other side of the coin, why do the older generation feel 'entitled' to a good pension, 'entitled' to good care in old age, and 'entitled' to have their property maintain it's value?

And who's expected to fund this? The young - the workers, those people that are struggling to rent, let alone buy.

You can stuff your entitlement up your a*se, housing, whether rented or bought is a basic social need, not an entitlement!!!!

And I own a house that's already 60% paid off. Still doesn't change my view on how tough it is out there for the young at the moment.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:01 pm
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It's not being selfish, it's capitalising on a good opportunity for myself.

Well the last crash was caused by the banking crisis - fancy going through that again? Maybe we will soon.

Be careful what you wish for.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:04 pm
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Molgrips

Trouble is that we already buy and dispose of more electronics/food random stuff than previous generations. I have a disposable income that proportionally dwarfs that of my parents after a similar time in the workplace.

We have more and we want more. Wanting a crash so that we can have a nicer house is just part of the mindset.

While I agree that prices in some areas are crazy. Salaries in some areas are also equally bonkers. The decades of mismanagement of the housing supply cannot be undone by a simple crash. I remember people with negative equity in the 80s and it wasn't fun for them. Mind you the word is a different place now, with money flowing freely from all over the place and little restriction on who can own UK assets.

If you say that UK growth is driven by the housing market (which sadly it is on paper anyway) a crash could have severe consequences. The economy either needs to be transitioned to something else or a slow managed stagnation needs to occur.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:04 pm
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I have a disposable income that proportionally dwarfs that of my parents after a similar time in the workplace.

I don't and most people I know are living in smaller homes than our parents, the advances we have over our parents generation are mainly technological not societal.

My mother was a teacher and my father worked in a factory, they were able to buy a big 4 bed semi and raise 4 kids, and my mother gave up work for a few years. That would be impossible now.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:07 pm
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We aren't talking about saving a "bit of money" to buy a house here.

We're talking hundreds of thousands of pounds. With the mortgage lending rates capped at 4 times salary and needing large deposits to secure property it is a crisis, not a misjudgement on my part.

Another thing to consider is where you buy - sure I could go and buy a house in Scarborough and it would cost me less than half of the deposit I need - likewise I could probably buy a shoebox where I currently live with what I have saved and a small mortgage.

However a shitty little one bed flat with a bathroom in the living room isn't sufficient for my needs and moving half way around the country won't suffice. I need to live near London because that's where I make my money, I have absolutely no option. If I did, I would have ****ed off to another country years ago.

It enrages me when I get called selfish for wanting to further my own cause, I'm all for looking after others but what help can I be if I don't look after myself?


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:08 pm
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why do the older generation feel 'entitled' to a good pension,

ill bite , im still young but i can see that many older people have been ****ed by the system.

they have paid all their working life into a system thats geared to give them the absolute minimum if anything back because the government spent it all.

it was never designed for the young to be paying for the oldies pension.... but its gone that way because just like many adults today the goverment spends more than it earns.....


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:09 pm
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On the other side of the coin, why do the older generation feel 'entitled' to a good pension, 'entitled' to good care in old age, and 'entitled' to have their property maintain it's value?

And who's expected to fund this? The young - the workers, those people that are struggling to rent, let alone buy.

Most of that is because they were told they were paying contributions through their working lives to get it. Doesn't mean they will though, but then they're probably used to not getting what they thought as many are the generation that were missold endowment policies and came through negative equity.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:15 pm
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We're talking hundreds of thousands of pounds. With the mortgage lending rates capped at 4 times salary and needing large deposits to secure property it is a crisis, not a misjudgement on my part.

Where exactly do you live (or want to live).


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:16 pm
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what is your generation ? the 20 somethings ? Im in that generation - as is TINAS i think.... we both just worked hard/saved hard/spent less.

As did I, the difference being I never grew up, lived or worked in the SE. I paid £97.5k for my house, what would that buy you down there?

I do get the entitlement thing though, nobody needs to own a house but on the flipside rentals need to be cheap enough to allow those who can't afford to buy a decent secure tenency.


 
Posted : 16/02/2016 3:17 pm
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