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Heres a prediction.
(Longterm). China is growing massively, there is no way the one-party leadership can stop peoples aspirations, thirst for goods and eventually freedom etc etc. The country is also too big to stay in one piece as it quasi-twists into a 'consumer' itself. You can't offer the people goods in a controlled state. You can offer people controlled Communism with minimistic goods and control them..
I see it split into seperate countries one day. Not even the million strong army can stop that....
there is no way the one-party leadership can stop peoples aspirations, thirst for goods and eventually freedom
I get the impression that the authorities are well aware of this and are planning for it. They are drip-feeding freedoms to the population as they feel they are needed. Could be the real reason for the media control...
I agree - the Chinese leadership are deliberatly allowing consumerism to flourish whilst retaining full control over government - it's a tricky line to walk but I can see that allowing people economic freedom and increased standards of living will stop there being any great push for political reform for some time.
Of course if they don't deliver on the economic success then there will be change.
Plus, I always wondered why they 'let' Taiwan have so much freedom without clamping down. Its almost as though they are slowly allowing freedom isn't it?
The biggest problem in China is water. Mongolia has Lake Hushgvol. Cue regional hostility.....
they 'let' Taiwan have feedom because the US made it very clear that any invasion would be met with a military response - until the last few years the Chinese knew they woudl lose such a conflict.
Now, despite military advances, they realise that upsettign the US too muc woudl affect their economy so badly they can't afford to do it.
Plus, I always wondered why they 'let' Taiwan have so much freedom without clamping down. Its almost as though they are slowly allowing freedom isn't it?
Well there is the fact that the USA wouldn't allow China to invade, and as with Hong Kong the nearby presence of the Running Dogs of Capitalism aids the Chinese economy.
I've just read this. http://www.amazon.co.uk/Maos-Great-Famine-Devastating-Catastrophe/dp/0747595089 It's mind-boggling how any nation ever managed to recover from that.
Question is, if I was Brant in China I'd be running around all nailing alot of Chinese honeys 8)
That's not a question hora....
If every supplier pays for one he'll have trouble getting through them before it's time to fly home.
Me "hard-line eco", I own a car FFS, and I've driven 110km in it so far this year, Molgrips. How about "pragamtic supporter of sustainable development".
We have to produce all the solar panels, heat pumps and windmills somewhere. It's more ecological to do it closer to the point of consumtion. My solar panels were made in Leipzig but I could have paid a lot less for chinese ones full of polluting and non-recyclable elements.
It's more ecological to do it closer to the point of consumtion
No it isn't. Closer to the source of raw materials would be a lower impact as you transport the (smaller, lighter) finished article further than the (bulky, heavy) unprocessed raw materials.
Correct Too Tall. The raw materials to make the biggest heaviest bits of most hings are available here in Europe. In the context of this thread, shipping Reynolds 853 to China then shipping the finished frame back is not good. Aluminium is made near here, shipping it to Italy, China, then back to France could and should be avoided.
Went away, came back and this thread has turned to poo.
When I say hard-line, I am going by the stuff you say on here. Let's face it, you are the most strident eco man on STW.
Re Aluminium, I think it should be made where the renewable energy is ie next to a hydroelectric power station, because it takes enormous amounts of leccy to extract from ore.
[i]Aluminium is made near here[/i]
where does the bauxite come from?
Historically the bauxite in France came from Brignoles and was smelted in factories such as the one in St Jean de Maurienne cyclists and skiers will be familiar with. You can't do much better than that in terms of keeping transport down.
Pechiney got taken over by Alcan then by Rio Tinto and now looks like being sold off to the Chinese who'll probably shut down the French plant. We'll see.
it would be better if the Aluminium were made in China then as that's where all the factories are 😉
Evening. Half past midnight and I really should be in bed. Fun day at three carbon factories (neither of which were owned by Italians or where Paul Farrell worked).
Interesting thing going on here which I'm not fully up on but essentially I keep getting told:-
"the government is trying to make workers return to their home town and work in factories there, rather than travel and live away from their hometown. This is making a problem for factories that rely on skilled labour from far away".
Don't fully understand it, but will try to learn more.
Visited completely awesome factory today. Amazingly high level of worker care, facilities, quality product... painting areas with vacuum "airlock" type doors to stop dust getting in. Amazing.
Bed now.
And some of the posters on here still seem to think the Chinese can't do high tech.
Fais de beaux rêves.
they've obviously not seen shanghai recently 😯
however I've been on a train where the toilet was a hole onto the track with a foot operated hatch (if it's not broke....) I didnt use it as it looked like someone had been stabbed to death and bleed shit everywhere (I had a quick piss on my tiptoes and let my turn bake for a few hours)
We still have trains with toilets like that in France but we also have the fastest trains on the planet with some high tech toilets. To be honest I prefer the old train toilets - a nice blast of fresh air as they never close properly and even the French can't block them.
you French?
Yes, English too.
Passport?
I've only got a French passport at present but could get a British one.
And some of the posters on here still seem to think the Chinese can't do high tech.
That's not what I said at all.
we also have the fastest trains on the planet with some high tech toilets.
does france have maglev? the one in shanghai goes over 430kph.
The TGV has done 574.8km/h. The one I took to Metz did 320km/h IIRC.
Compositepro:
In looking at ways of producing a steel frame its perfectly feasable to buy a tube laser and never need to touch a tube also a robot to weld 3D cad and cam and a frame jig that's computer controlled allows this however say you got an order for 1000 frames even at 300 quid a time thats only 300k!!!
I know a company that already does that in the uk for other products and is looking to diversify.
Very nice set up and will Jig and CNC Laser profile tubes direct from CAD data
I doubt 1000 frames a year would trouble them either 😉
No, you said this, Molgrips:
"[i]Let the Chinese do what they can well (make stuff cheaply) and let us do what we can do well (make money form money and innovate).[/i] "
They have more money than us to make money from and are very good at innovating. Have a look at the DealExtreme site.
innovating
do they still 'innovate' through reverse engineering, or do they actually innovate now
If Giant bicycles are anything to go by they innovate without any need for reverse engineering. Ask Brant, he's the one doing a tour of Chinese design offices and manufacturing facilities. Where else in the world can you find much of that stuff on the DealExtreme site? If you can find it elsewhere it's someone like Brant that sells it having chosen a design, personalised it and asked the chinese to put his stickers on their product.
What's inside all those expensive British bicycle lights? Chinese designed and built components.
I have a feeling the Chinese are not being given enough credit.* And that probably suits them just fine.
* Not in the financial sense. 🙂
If patent filings are any indicator of how innovative a country is then [url= http://www.ipwatchdog.com/2011/12/21/patent-filings-up-worldwide-outpacing-gdp-growth/id=21344/ ]China is innovating lots.[/url] Though curiously only a small proportion are filed abroad. Probably only the the most significant innovations. Let's not forget the Americans have umpteen patents for the unequal quadrangle that the European don't feel the need for.
No, you said this, Molgrips:
Yes, which wasn't what you originally suggested.
We do innovate well, they do make stuff well. That's not to say that they can't innovate, of course, just that we do it well.
This debate really isn't going anywhere, you don't have any real facts or experience yet you seem to be trying to make it into an adversarial debate rather than a general discussion about the Chinese economy.
No because my comment was mainly aimed at Retrodirect, Molgrips. Thisisnotaspoon justified making it plural but you were the one that felt targeted. Funny that. As for adversarial, I have no hesitation in suggesting you reread your own posts.
I don't need to re-read your own posts, I know what they say and yet I still think you are being adversarial. Lots of good posts on here and interesting insight into the economics of outsourced production. None of them from you - you just seem to want me to admit that we're all doomed.
I of course don't know what's going to happen, but I would expect we'd reach a happy medium with economies co-operating whilst playing to their strengths. It's in everyone's best interests of course.
Now you're getting personal in addition to being adversarial and insulting my inteligence, Molgrips. I really do suggest you reread your own posts.
I havzen't asked you to admit anything, I have simply provided information that demonstrates that the Chinese can innovate and have money to make money with as well as being able to manufacture cheaply which puts them in a very strong position, dominant even.
If you look back it was me that started the deabte on out-sourced production with my first post and then a balance of payments graph.
I know a company that already does that in the uk for other products and is looking to diversify.Very nice set up and will Jig and CNC Laser profile tubes direct from CAD data
I doubt 1000 frames a year would trouble them either
I wouldn't want to build 1000 frames fella because there's no profit in it.I know what your saying in terms of buisnesses with the equipment already being out there but this also brings with it other problems.
I was trying to highlight the fact that If you want a complete 853 frame built here the tube cost is roughly just under 200 quid ,even using the other tubes in the range 725 631 etc at Qty prices you still are biting a large chunk of £110(but lets be honest the 853 sticker is what people want)So to compete with cheap labour you could only use modern manufacturing and eliminate or minimise the fabrication cost it's not impossible but to do it for something as simple as a bicycle frame becomes quite a piece of value engineering. This hasn't included welding braze ons ,paint prep alignment or QC
BUT YOU CAN BUY A VERY POPULAR FRAME FOR 199 QUID
When you move up to Carbon and TI then yes the spreadsheet full of numbers pops out a figure that you can compete at a price which you might be able to get away with using a made in britain price tag and wouldn't be a million miles away from a Thai/Chi price
But then again only if your a maniac trying to prove a point you might eek a living you are going to make from it isn't going to make you rich by any means but might give you a sense of pride
I was told by someone much wiser than me who understands the steel market the best way is to add value to your product. If that's geometry or niche or whatever the only real way for a UK guy to manufacture frames here and make money is to build custom frame's to fit each customer and rely on the skill There's still an contingent of people who will be loyal to the handcrafted bike frame but unfortunately unlike the USA the young guns aren't coming through or are still learning
Now if you could offer every customer a production frame which was custom made just for them that might add value.
But then again I think thermoplastics will return very soon add some 3d braids and the whole carbon market will be a cash cow again
If Giant bicycles are anything to go by they innovate without any need for reverse engineering
Pretty poor example considering they stole the DW link design. They do pretty much nick every design they are asked to build.
Comp Pro
We need to talk, are you not getting my emails, we have some great ideas bubbling away and we need to meet up
I have simply provided information that demonstrates that the Chinese can innovate
I most expressly did not say that the Chinese can't innovate.
can they Chinnovate?
Comp ProWe need to talk, are you not getting my emails, we have some great ideas bubbling away and we need to meet up
No will check now.
The DW link design is one of those many unequal quadrangles that frankly don't deserve a patent. Four bars were used on competition cars for years before Horst put one on a bike. Have a look at the 1959 Mini front suspension, it's a four bar. Short links, long links, rocking up, rocking down. They're all unequal quadrangles with a hinge at each corner and the Greeks knew how to draw them. Anyhow, in Europe you can put your pivots where you want and sell your bike without worrying about those American patents.
Intellectual property is all very well but should the Sketchamatic designer get royalties on Apple's thing that looks like the thing the guys in Star Trek paraded around with and why are Trek bicycles not paying royalties to the Star Trek people? The patents business is another one that needs some sorting out that goes beyond a series of law suits.
Edit: I didn't say you did, Molgrips, read again please, I said the Chinese are good at innovating.