[Closed] Have the Greeks shot their bolt?

Shot his bolt = cum too early were I come from. So do you mean they peaked too soon in their negotiations?

Yes, they should have pushed as hard as possible and/or defaulted while the rest of the EU was still in shock.

Cameron was being interviewed on R4 this morning, and agreed that the referendum on Sunday will in effect be an 'in-out' choice for the Greek people.

Personally I think they'll bail, as they're all fed up with austerity/being told what to do by Europe.

I think a government going into negotiations apparently in good faith but then asking the other participants* if they wouldn't mind hanging on a bit while they ran the proposals through a full referendum might have been the last straw for their creditors.

*Actually, as I recall, they didn't bother mentioning it during negotiations, just announced it on Twitter.

as they're all fed up with austerity

Everybody is.

But the alternative is what?

But the alternative is what?

austerity on your own terms versus austerity on some one else's terms

But if those terms allows more money to be brought to the table, how can it be better to be without it?

So if it's so good, why have they not jumped already? They've had to be backed into a corner.

Footsie down by only around a hundred points

And will probably recover by the end of the day.

Storm in a tea cup.

But the alternative is what?

Investment.

I hope Greece stick it to 'em, I like the EU but I don't like austerity. Sadly think regardless of what policy they end up having to take, austerity or investing, Greece will end up a mess regardless. And if they choose investment that'll give all the people who say things like "we have to live within our means" ammunition.

Greece will be better off without EURO rather than being dictated terms by a bloke called Jean-Claude Juncker. Who the hell is he to dictate terms to people of Greece? Good or bad when a country is being threaten/ruled by ZM bureaucrats that's when things fall apart. The rich get richer while the poor struggle and forever be the slaves to the system.

Greece will be better off without EURO rather than being dictated terms by a bloke called Jean-Claude Juncker. Who the hell is he to dictate terms to people of Greece?

He's the bloke who as the leader of Luxemburg set it up as the corporates premier global venue for tax[s] evasion [/s]planning. He now lectures the Greeks on collecting tax

You couldn't make it up.

binners - Member

He's the bloke who as the leader of Luxemburg set it up as the corporates premier global venue for tax [s]evasion[/s] planning. He now lectures the Greeks on collecting tax

You couldn't make it up.

Well, that bloke is showing his true colours now as the non-elected "head" of Greece. It looks as if he has more "power" than the elected leaders of Greece.

It looks as if he has more "power" than the elected leaders of Greece.

That's what normally happens when you get yourself massively indebted!

regardless of what policy they end up having to take, austerity or investing, Greece will end up a mess regardless

What would they invest in? Olive Oil and Tourism?

footflaps - Member

It looks as if he has more "power" than the elected leaders of Greece.

That's what normally happens when you get yourself massively indebted!

Probably will happen to all the Southern/newly joined EU nations if they are not careful.

This EURO thing should be confined to Germany & France since they are happy in bed with each other being the loan shark.

UK can be a loan shark if UK wishes but that would be unethical. 😈

ScottChegg - Member

regardless of what policy they end up having to take, austerity or investing, Greece will end up a mess regardless

What would they invest in? Olive Oil and Tourism?

Orgies perhaps? 😆

Ship building? But Korean can do that better.

ScottChegg - Member
as they're all fed up with austerity
Everybody is.

Fed up?!? It's hardly started yet....

Nobody likes Austerity.

BUT......

If you government has run up massive debts it can't pay, but still wants to spend on over generous pensions, not collect tax, etc something has to give.

something has to give

Indeed - but what? Pensioners (generally quite poor, regardless of the propaganda) or the rich?

Austerity (i.e. just another name for living within your means) is going to hit the Greeks whatever. Its unavoidable - and the notion that they'll be better off with austerity on their own terms is just sentimental nonsense - to the people it will feel the same, and ultimately the same difficult decisions will have to be made. If they stay with Europe they will have to introduce more austerity, but if they default and leave austerity will hit them as they will have very limited ability to avoid it as their channels of outward credit is cut off, as who on earth will lend a penny to the Greeks after they have demonstrated so brazenly that they have no intention of paying back what they borrow.

They decided to borrow the cash, it wasn't forced on them, and once they borrowed it instead of investing it wisely they pissed it up the wall. If any person or institution is going to lend money to someone they are perfectly entitled to expect it will be paid back. If they don't get those assurances then they won't lend.

Of course i'm sure Putin will happily bale them out - in exchange of their freedom and Greece becoming the latest addition to his new USSR. I can't imagine that's what the people of Greece would really want.

It's a desperate situation for the Greek people. This referendum is a nonsense and a way for their current government to shift the blame of failure on to the people, and I suspect, like the British people, there is not the general depth of understanding to properly consider the options being put to them, and the government is distilling a very complex choice into a very simple 'us against them' argument and forcing the decision on them in a matter of a few days. Appalling politics.

Surely, even if / when they default this months' interest payment and the next and the next, they'll still be liable for repaying the debts in terms of both interest and capital?

Or does just one month default wipe the slate completely? I'm not sure the lenders are that generous are they?

Because if that's the case, I'm not going to pay my credit card next month. 😉

I have told mine we are having a vote, on whether to repay it 4 days after the due date, in the hope they ask for less.

Austerity (i.e. just another name for living within your means) is going to hit the Greeks whatever.

No it doesn't mean "living within your means". The term austerity is used to describe a situation where there is a reduction in public expenditure.

You cannot have permanent austerity - that would require a constant reduction in public expenditure, an impossible feat.

they have demonstrated so brazenly that they have no intention of paying back what they borrow

Yes that's it..... they never had any intention 'of paying back what they borrowed' ! 😆

like the British people, there is not the general depth of understanding to properly consider the options being put to them

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Because if that's the case, I'm not going to pay my credit card next month.

Suppose you don't, and your lender insists on getting back the money. Do you think he will also specify that in order to pay it, you need to sell your bike, and not your TV, as you had been planning? Do you think he will also call your bank and insist that they cancel your overdraft? Will he also ask your neighbour to move in with your missus to make sure that the payments are made?

The question is basically "do you want dictated austerity from foreign politicians, or enforced austerity from foreign investors?"

The phrase 'Hobson's choice' springs to mind.

Although I'd place more faith in investors than politicians!

Although I'd place more faith in investors than politicians!

Presumably you haven't heard of the global credit crunch which was triggered off by risky investments, and which created the worse global economic crises since the 1930s, all because politicians decided to deregulate the industry, as apparently the market always knows best ?

The politicians had to step in and try to sort out the mess left by investors.

That's quite some revision of history there Ernie, even by your standards.

that is a vague and imprecise critique lacking any counter explanation even by your standards THM

THM doesn't need to explain.

Indeed I don't - there are plenty of books, research and articles written on the subject. Even the Bank of England although they find it hard to accept their failure in full.

they find it hard to accept their failure in full

So in a period of about 15 minutes you've gone from accusing me of "revision of history" to now talking about "their failure in full". So it's merely the degree of culpability which you are now disputing. Something which I haven't even specified. Politicians are clearly not blameless, something that I've already pointed out. Suggesting that investors are, would without doubt, be a "revision of history".

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/business/2007/sep/09/money4 ]Credit crunch hits investment banks for $25bn[/url]

[i]The market crisis began in the so-called sub-prime mortgage market in the US. Lenders allowed would-be homeowners with poor financial resources and weak credit histories to borrow large amounts of money to buy homes. The mortgages were bundled in packages of securities and derivatives worth billions of dollars, to be traded between international banks and hedge funds.[/i]

Getting a bit warmer now Ernie.

Oh don't start that bollocks, it's so tedious.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

Krugman is worth reading in this context.

Sadly the wacky actions of Greece's populist government are no different from the way some of our Greek customers seem to view the matter of owing money to us, their supplier. Time and time again over the last 20 years they have proved that they don't care a damn and will only pay when it suits them.

The whole sorry situation is strongly coloured by Greek national pride and their hatred of the Germans.

If not paying what is owed is a well established Greek genetic trait, as you claim globalti, then it makes the wacky behaviour of the lenders even more irresponsible.

It's probably time to shop shedding tears for them.

The whole sorry situation is strongly coloured by Greek national pride and their hatred of the Germans.

Absolute complete and utter rubbish. There have historically been close ties between Germany and Greece, and despite the small matter of WW2 Germans have been warmly welcomed in Greece.

Interested as to what the backstory might be that we dont get wind of.

Pm of Greece went to Russia recently
Greek PM elected on anti austerity agenda
Greece defaults (debt written off... just what DOES happenen to it ?)
Referendum results are mandate from the populace to carry on against austerity
PM tables the Russion offer he received earlier
Russian offer accepted, pensions secure etc etc in return for a Russian seaport in Greece

Perhaps ?

But Russia is just as broke as Greece given current oil prices.

DrJ remember Russia has a leader who does not give a toss about his own people and about $400bn in the bank. He'll do what he likes and if that means driving a wedge in the EU, then its got to be good.

DrJ remember Russia has a leader who does not give a toss about his own people and about $400bn in the bank

First part is true, 2nd part isn't. They have a lot less than $400bn, mainly as they lent it all to Putin's mates to build the Sochi winter olympics resort.

austerity is obviously crushing greece
they need to leave he EU, unless the EU miraculously decide to let them actually rebuild their civil service and state, sans oligarchs this time

putin would love to get his hands on greece, but im not sure he wants another source of conflict right now and I dont think the greeks would be particularly docile lapdogs

There have historically been close ties between Germany and Greece

If anyone is going to step in and take advantage of the situation, [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-33322911 ]it really isn't going to be Russia[/url]