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So here we have a narrow margin Labour seat in a piss poor, deprived area of the North East stuck between Redwalls and having suffered Covid and got nothing in the Towns funding.
Whats the bet they vote Boris?
I would say ll it's all safe bet I'm afraid.
Parallel universe stuff eh?
Got to have a pretty good chance.
- Labour guy resigning under a cloud
- Most Brexity place in Britain. Getting people out to vote is hard in by elections but the tories have got something to really energise the Brexit ultras
- Recent "popular" local announcements on free ports, GE etc that the tories are all over
- Strong base of regional MPs and supporters etc for campaigning
- Likely to be held against a backdrop of improving CV situation and reopening
The old tory / labour split doesn't really exist anymore. This government has basically adopted Ed Milibands economic manifesto and mixed it up with a bit of wing populism. What space is there for Labour in place like Hartlepool?
Tories will just tell them they'll get a slice of the pie, like Richmond if they vote blue. It will work.
What TomD said
Has Tice decided not to stand?
This will very much be a Bellwether of Brexit now it's done would people vote for Tice if he stands will they vote Tory now Brexit is done?
Suspect it'll be on an incredibly low turnout and a good candidate on either side could probably have a massive effect?
The Council looks like an utter bag of mess, probably too close to call I'd have thought at this point
69.57% Leave area?
It's a landslide for the brownshirts, then.
Hartlepool uber alles.
97.9% 'white' area vs c.87% in the UK at large.
We can all see where this is going to go....
69.57% Leave area?
I'm going to go out on a limb here that the average Hartlepool voter hasn't seen anything about the 40% drop in trade with the EU since Brexit (and wouldn't care anyway) so thinks thats all 'done', and thinks Boris is 'doing his best' so is about to vote Tory as they just had their vaccination so thinks Covid is now 'done' too.
An absolute shoe in for BlueKIP
Let them eat cake
Isn't one of the usual suspects going to be along soon to excuse the poor, misguided, nothing to lose, teeth-baring racists?
Let them eat cake
And 'sovrunty', that is very nutritious.
If there's a 50/50 split of the Tice voters it's still a Labour win, it'll be interesting to see the actual result, there's a lot of talk about change not happening quickly enough.
Essentially it's likely to be 18 months into a government that won't have changed anything for the average punter in Hartlepool...
There's a pretty hard left chunk of the town the Council make up shows!
I've always thought of Hartlepool as pretty progressive...
I see the usual suspects here are softening the ground for further bad news for Labour. Given that "Brexit is done" and Labour is making a sovereignty pitch, it seems a bit premature to be giving up.
All we need now is for dazh to turn up defending the poor, misguided, disillusioned rabid racists and I get to shout 'house'...
I see the usual suspects here are softening the ground for further bad news for Labour.
It would be surprising if Keir Starmer having a damascene conversion to flag-waving patriot didn't pay immediate dividends, it seemed so convincing to me. They won't remember that he backed a second referendum will they?
It would be surprising if Keir Starmer having a damascene conversion to flag-waving patriot didn’t pay immediate dividends, it seemed so convincing to me. They won’t remember that he backed a second referendum will they?
What I can't understand is why they're behaving like they've already lost. I'm sure "it's all Corbyn's fault" is in the post.
I think it's called getting your excuses in early.
Remember, we're talking about a town who voted their football team's monkey mascot in as mayor.
69.57% Leave area?
It’s a landslide for the brownshirts, then.
Hartlepool uber alles.
All we need now is for dazh to turn up defending the poor, misguided, disillusioned rabid racists and I get to shout ‘house’…
Can I call house on your portrayal of the area and the voters?
You should offer up your canvasing services for labour, I'm sure Tice will pay for you to go door to door calling people fascist and racist. Your approach is bound to shift public opinion.....
Can I call house on your portrayal of the area and the voters?
If you like. It doesn't stop it being true. 😘
Your approach is bound to shift public opinion…..
What would? Working out exactly how racist you need to be to get elected there?
I think it’s called getting your excuses in early.
If the posts above are to be believed, the current thinking is to call the voters names and give up before the contest has started.
What would? Working out exactly how racist you need to be to get elected there?
Just go for full racist (as far as you can go before getting done for hate crime) and you will be in.
What would? Working out exactly how racist you need to be to get elected there?
If it's much like round here you'll need to blame illegal immigrants for everything then vote to leave the EU 'because of the jobs', ie-
"Why did you vote to leave the EU?"
"Because of the jobs."
"Which jobs?"
"Y'know, the jobs. The ones in China."
Jesus. ****ing. Wept. 🤦♀️
the good thing about the brexit vote (clutching at straws, i know) was that we got to see the country, and each area nicely divided into
Opinion A,
Opinion B,
No opinion
Most elections in most constituencies there will be some apathy in safe seats, some protest votes, etc but here we have:
a narrow margin Labour seat
narrowly held by the current opposition, after one of the most interesting periods of time of government for decades.
I really hope the Tories get in, otherwise some people will look pretty bad given their comments.
I'm happy to look bad in exchange for the ****ing tories not getting another seat. I was genuinely surprised/relieved that they didn't win this seat (Easington) last time but the Labour incumbent has a much slimmer majority than he did (swing to tories & brexit party).
As someone who has the misfortune to live in Hartlepool, I can safely the say that the comments on here disparaging the majority of the people in the town are pretty much spot on.
Some of the highest levels of poverty and lowest levels of educational achievement in the UK, what do you expect?
That said, I doubt (hope) it isn’t a bellwether for the rest of the UK!
I really hope the Tories get in, otherwise some people will look pretty bad given their comments.
I don't care about looking bad personally. I do care that the majority held by the trojan horse that is the modern conservative party is kept to a minimum and hopefully overturned at some point in the future.
I really hope the Tories get in, otherwise some people will look pretty bad given their comments.
When the pubs are back open, come and spend an evening in my local. I don't go in there any more after having a massive barney with the regulars in there. They are what seems to be the 'new' tory voter that has delivered this and many other northern constituencies to the Tory Brexiteers
They're a delightful bunch. Really bright. 'Salt of the earth'. You can sit at the bar and listen to them endlessly bemoan the problems of this country. Invariably everything is down to 3 groups of people
1. *ing ****'s (derogatory term for our local Asian residents)
2. *ing ****s (derogatory term for our local black residents)
and:
3. *ing **s (derogatory term for our local homosexual residents)
Women get mentioned too in a 'phwooooar, she'd get it!' way, obviously, but thats their only place in the world
They all voted UKIP in the past - I know this as they delighted in telling the sole Guardian reader in the pub this - but since Boris converting the Tories to an English Nationalist party, they all voted Tory last time out.
Thats the reality of the situation. From an electoral point of view, its genius from the Tories. Convincing the thicko casual racist that they're the party for them. Where its taking the rest of us... god only knows.
Nowhere good, thats for sure
Tories will just tell them they’ll get a slice of the pie, like Richmond if they vote blue. It will work.
To be honest to fix this
Some of the highest levels of poverty and lowest levels of educational achievement in the UK, what do you expect?
Moving a government department there will probably be a significant help, it will adjust the demographics away from the current paradigm and pump money and good jobs into the area.
A win for everyone
When the pubs are back open, come and spend an evening in my local.
Other pubs are available a short walking distance away
They all voted UKIP in the past
Bury North is a two way marginal between labour and conservative, highest UKIP polled is 12.9% of votes cast. Brexit Party got 2.6% in 2019
Probably says more about your local than the constituency, as stated above, other pubs are available in a short walk.
Indeed. Luckily.
Unfortunately if you look at the swing to the Tories at last election to win this seat, the attitude they espoused seems to be indicative of those who’ve found their new political home with Boris and the Brexiteers, of which there seem to be plenty.
When the pubs are back open, come and spend an evening in my local.
I can assure ou I have local pubs the same. And a good friend from Hartlepool took me out around the town enough times in the 90s for me to have no illusions about the place.
The sad fact is, many people don't think the same way as the STW demographic. Not sure how we try and change and influence that, but the immediate resorting to insults that has become the default - on both sides - never works.
To be honest to fix this
Some of the highest levels of poverty and lowest levels of educational achievement in the UK, what do you expect?
Moving a government department there will probably be a significant help
As somewhere who lives where Sunak's new office will be, I hope so. I'm extremely annoyed that the Tories have done it and that Labour didn't when they had the chance.
I truly despair at what’s happened to this country over the last 5 years.
The casual racists/sexist/homophobes are massively emboldened - in their words “you lost, get over it!” - and the direction of travel is only heading in one direction.
And we have a government gleefully stoking this for its own ends. God only knows where they’re taking us. Nowhere I want to go, that’s for sure
Is their anyone who honestly thinks that in the present climate, Labour can retain that seat?
Bury North is a two way marginal between labour and conservative, highest UKIP polled is 12.9% of votes cast. Brexit Party got 2.6% in 2019
It was a two way marginal when I was drinking in the pubs there 25 years ago. We had our fair share of racists and misogynists back then, too. As you say, you learnt which pubs to avoid. The Clarence and The Grey Mare for starters.
Ransos - The Grey Mare I can guarantee you will be the same today as it was 25 years ago. The Clarence is now a really nice curry house, so that’s progress.
But Labour lost a 3,500 majority last time out. That kind of swing was replicated throughout the surrounding areas
Funny story for you though. My parting words to the regulars in the Rose and Crown were “you’re all a bunch of ****ing bigots!”. My friend Karen was working behind the bar. She said there were a few seconds of silence then one of them piped up ....
“What’s a bigot?”
I kid you not 😂
Their collective brainpower then apparently reasoned that me calling them bigots (despite them not knowing what it meant 5 minutes ago) was actually far worse than them using the N word to describe black people, therefore it was me who was being offensive, not them
You couldn’t make it up.
I hope so. I’m extremely annoyed that the Tories have done it and that Labour didn’t when they had the chance.
Labour did a lot of this kind of thing when they were in government, moving government/public functions to less well off areas. The areas that benefitted haven't necessarily all thanked them at the voting booth long term... far from it.
All we need now is for dazh to turn up defending the poor
I've never defended racists so stop being a d***. I've done plenty of defending the poor though. This thread is another classic example of the snobbery which infects this place. In the past the main thing which stopped working class people being racist was socialism. Now that anyone to the left of Nick Clegg is branded a sixth form bedwetter it's not surprising that it's prevalent again.
It's tragically ironic seeing people bemoan 'what's happeneed to this country' when they vacuous, principle free head in the sand centrist politics they support is the main cause. You want less racism? Then try a bit of old fashioned redistribution of wealth and power to the people at the bottom. People don't give a shit about foreigners when they're not stressed about keeping a roof over their heads and food on the table.
food on the table
https://www.hartlepool.gov.uk/info/20015/social_care_and_health/918/starting_well_-_health/2
Excess weight in adults, that is those who are classified as overweight or obese, was at 71% in 2016/17. For every 10 adults in Hartlepool seven of them are overweight or obese.
Yep, that's got to be it...
You want less racism? Then try a bit of old fashioned redistribution of wealth and power to the people at the bottom.
You're honestly saying that you can 'buy' people out of their racism and prejudice?
Or is it more a matter that they can be silenced for a bit by a wad of cash?
Strange world you live in.
In the past the main thing which stopped working class people being racist was socialism
What?! I'm sorry, but thats total cobblers. Socialism stops racism is like saying capitalism stops Covid.
People don’t give a shit about foreigners when they’re not stressed about keeping a roof over their heads and food on the table.
So there's only poor racists? My experience is the complete opposite of that