That's another way to phrase it 🙂
Squeaky bum time now - who will fold.
As always funny to read the comments below Munchau's weekly anti-Europe FT piece
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/175f6634-b2d3-11e4-a058-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3RhcEwzi1
Makes STW look calm and loving in comparison!!
Merkel has a pretty good track record of folding in the end, but Schauble clearly wants a fight today!!! Did he miss the electoral mandate?!?!
Messy, messy, messy
Schauble is just looking like an idiot at the moment - I don't think it is appropriate to say things like "I feel sorry for the Greeks at the moment. They’ve elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly." he's entitled to his personal view, but expressing it in public in this way cannot be seen as helpful.
After last week's meeting, when FT prematurely leaked a copy of the memorandum, it was speculated that a statement was agreed but later vetoed by Tsipras, and people questioned the point of dealing with Varoufakis when the "organ grinder" was not present. In fact it turns out is was Schauble who vetoed the statement, which leads me to ask the same question back - what is the point of speaking to a narrow minded fool like Schauble, when the organ grinder is Merkel?
Especially when Merkel prefers to fold!
Still makes good headlines!
He is right about being sorry for the Greeks, just not (100%) with the reasons!
I feel sorry for the Greeks as well - they elected a series of governments that f*cked them over the years. They have also been f*cked over the last century by more or less everyone - the Turks, the British, the Germans, the Italians, the US, etc etc...
Schauble is just looking like an idiot at the moment - I don't think it is appropriate to say things like "I feel sorry for the Greeks at the moment. They’ve elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly." he's entitled to his personal view, but expressing it in public in this way cannot be seen as helpful.
You won't be surprised to hear I don't think he looks daft at all. He's speaking for the whole of Germany as a minimum. I feel sorry for the Greeks, they have gotten themselves into this terrible position and getting out is going to be very painful. When they joined the EU and the euro they had a tremendous opportunity to invigorate the country and build a positive future, they chose another path.
Following quote is from the Spanish finance minister Luis de Guindos
[i]: "Our red line is that [Greek] loans must be paid back in full"[/i]
THM you keep posting links to FT articles and yet you know that the FT has a paywall so most people won't be able to read them. If you really want people to read the article then don't post a link but just post the headline as the articles can be accessed via a google news search.
Anyway imo an otherwise good article was let down towards the end by this false claim :
[i]If Syriza were to be co-opted into the policy consensus, the only political party left to oppose these policies would be Golden Dawn, a neo-Nazi party. [/i]
Golden Dawn are not the only other party to to oppose austerity measures. While it is true that they came third in the recent general election and received 388 thousand votes the KKE, which is also opposed to the austerity, received 338 thousand votes which is hardly a very long way behind, and they have 15 MPs to Golden Dawn's 17.
Further more it is unlikely that many who have voted for a left-wing party, described as "far-left" by their detractors, will simply automatically switch their allegiance to a far-right party, specially when there is a genuine far-left party to vote for.
And of course there is still the Independent Greeks Party in the legislature, they are both right-wing and anti-austerity, but not quite as right-wing as Golden Dawn.
So the suggestion that other than Syriza and Golden Dawn there are no other political parties in Greece to oppose austerity is both false and sloppy.
Don't believe everything you read in the papers, even if it's the FT.
Someone with a little more creative skill should put this song over some images of Vouvakis swanning around on his motorbike, no tie and all - eh ?
I feel sorry for the Greeks, they have gotten themselves into this terrible position and getting out is going to be very painful.
Groundhog Day. You never miss an opportinity to confuse cause with effect do you?
You won't be surprised to hear I don't think he looks daft at all. He's speaking for the whole of Germany as a minimum.
He's not speaking for the whole of Germany though, any more than George Osborne speaks for the whole of Britain.
Wolfgang Schauble's party received even less support in Germany than George Osborne's party received in Britain.
@ernie 75% of Germans think the Greeks should not get a debt haircut, there was a poll. The eurosceptics in Germany are on the rise, they are going to be even less accommadative to Greece than Merkel's social democrats.
@dazh - I understand cause and effect very well. The Greek economy was based upon excessive government borrowing redistributed to the population, the music stopped and now its time to repay.
Sonner or later someone is going to raise the prospect of Greece being kicked out of the EU altogether. I doubt it will happen but it probably should. I nearly died laughing when I read the stories floated by Greece about borrowing money from Russia or indeed China. The Greeks just cancelled the port sale to the Chinese, the Chinese aren't interested in loans they want to buy assets. Russia is in dire straights following the sanctions and oil price fall with an economy now 50% of the size of the UK.
The Greeks need to understand what a fantastic privilege it is for them to be in the EU, they need to do all they can to remain inside and an exit, even just from the euro, would be a disaster for them.
How can a collapse in the economy, massive wage deflation and crippling unemployment be considered a privilege?
Being part of the € is a fate worse than default. Compare the current pain with other sov defaults, only in this case we are no nearer the end of the world
Sorry about the links E_L, if you are following other threads, the default answer is don't be tight and buy the subscription!! 😉 plus you can't copy and paste stuff because they monitor this accurately!!
There are two largely democratic mana dates going head to head. Both can't win. Hence the game of chicken.
Schauble is just looking like an idiot at the moment - I don't think it is appropriate to say things like "I feel sorry for the Greeks at the moment. They’ve elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly." he's entitled to his personal view, but expressing it in public in this way cannot be seen as helpful.
jambalaya :
You won't be surprised to hear I don't think he looks daft at all. He's speaking for the whole of Germany as a minimum.
It's his personal opinion. There is no evidence that "the whole of Germany" is of the opinion that Greece has "elected a government which is currently acting irresponsibly".
For a start if you read the FT article you will see that Wolfgang Münchau strongly disagrees, despite being German. And not even Wolfgang Schaeuble's coalition partner is saying that the Greek government is "acting irresponsibly".
[b][i] Mr. Varoufakis on Thursday found a more sympathetic ear in Sigmar Gabriel, who is Germany’s economy and energy minister and leader of the center-left Social Democratic Party. Mr. Gabriel urged for a fresh program to be drawn up for Greece before the current one expires.
“I think this is in all of our interests,” Mr. Gabriel said after the meeting.[/i][/b]
Don't make wild claims about "the whole of Germany" to further your agenda.
The Greek economy was based upon excessive government borrowing redistributed to the population, the music stopped and now its time to repay.
Just as the German economy was based on keeping wages down, savings up, creating huge piles of cash with nowhere to go except to create bubbles in other countries. As has been documented elsewhere, there is no precedent in history for such funds to be dispensed constructively, an the same holds true today. Everybody contributed to this mess, borrowers and lenders.
ernie, I quoted a poll held in Germany. I would imagine a similar result if you held such a poll in Spain or Italy. Schauble is speaking in his role as German Finance minister, it wasn't not a fireside chat over a Pilsner.
DrJ, the lenders lent money on the basis of blatant lies from the Greeks. There was no bubble in Greece, the Greeks just borrowed money and handed it out to voters.
TMH, its odd is it not how the euro didn't result in the rest of the PIIGS getting into quite the same mess. They managed to contain themselves somewhat. Those in Ireland or Portugal which have endured hardships into order to fix their issues aren't going to be supportive of Greece getting beneficial treatment.
No they are not but let's not pretend they have not endured tremendous hardship and probably worse that many in other default Scenarios
ernie, I quoted a poll held in Germany.
You didn't quote a poll which said all Germans think the present Greek government is "acting irresponsibly". Which was your claim. You quoted an alleged poll in which apparently a [i]majority[/i] of Germans said that Greece [i]"should not get a debt haircut".[/i] Which happens to fall completely in line with the present Greek government's policy, ie, not to seek a haircut/debt reduction.
So all you have provided is evidence of an apparent opinion poll in which a majority of Germans expressed the same opinion as the present Greek government. So your point was ?
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DrJ, the lenders lent money on the basis of blatant lies from the Greeks. There was no bubble in Greece, the Greeks just borrowed money and handed it out to voters.
I'm not sure what 'blatant lies' fooled the French and German bankers, or what money was 'handed out to voters', but let's not forget that it was right-wing conservative governments which were responsible for sending Greece's debt through the roof, the sort of governments which you support, it wasn't left-wing governments which you rant about that created the problem.
In case you've forgotten let's remind ourselves :
[img] 
[/img]
The Greek conservatives, the New Democracy Party, got elected in 1989. You will note how Greek debt compared to the Eurozone average shot up under their rule.
Then in 1993 PASOK got elected to government and stayed in power until 2004. Now you will note that Greek debt compared to the Eurozone average leveled off.
And then in 2004 the conservative New Democracy Party again got elected to government, they stayed in power until 2009. During this period Greek debt went through the roof leading to the present dire economic situation.
Interesting. Stakes get higher and higher as the EU seem to be relying on brute force and intimidation rather than reasoned discussion!
Looks like it's inevitable the Greek is going to be kicked out of EURO ...
@chewkw Syriza don't have a mandate to leave the euro, the Greek people want to stay in. So it's my view they will cave in and agree to continue with the current programme for 6 months whilst agreeing slight modifications to the programme over that period, Politically Syriza have to be seen by their electorate to be giving the tough negotiating stance a good go but everyone knows it's a bluff.
@ernie yes Greek debt is much much higher than the rest of the eurozone, no one is disputing that. The so,union however is not for the tax payers in the rest of the eurozone to allow them or walk away from a large portion of it.
@DrJ the eurozone have been extremely accommodative of Greece, there is no intimidation they are just pointing out that the signed agreement is what stands
The so,union however is not for the tax payers in the rest of the eurozone to allow them or walk away from a large portion of it.
jambalaya why are you deliberately misrepresenting the position of the Greek government ? You have obviously been following this story very closely and therefore are fully aware that the Greek government is NOT asking to walk away from "a large portion" of its debt.
So why do you persist with this false claim that they want to walk away from a large portion of their debt when you know this not to be true ?
From Yanis Varoufakis the Greek Finance Minister himself, quote :
[i][b]Our government is not asking our partners for a way out of repaying our debts. We are asking for a few months of financial stability that will allow us to embark upon the task of reforms that the broad Greek population can own and support, so we can bring back growth and end our inability to pay our dues.[/i][/b]
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/17/opinion/yanis-varoufakis-no-time-for-games-in-europe.html?_r=0
The position of the Greek government is that the Troika brokered austerity packages are not working, and that until the shackles are eased the Greek economy will not be able to function sufficiently to pay off Greek debts.
It's not a position which I agree with but it is the position of the Greek government. So perhaps you should stop misrepresenting them ?
If you were more honest and factual in your posts it might give your arguments, whatever they might be, more impetus 💡
If you were more honest and factual in your posts it might give your arguments, whatever they might be, more impetus
If he were more honest and factual it might make him worth discussing stuff with.
Pro tip: If you want to read FT articles, you can just google the headline, then click through to the article from there.
Looks like everyone's digging in, and being genuinely intransigent, as opposed to just posturing.
Is there any possible way that this can resolve itself? In any meaningful way that isn't economically disastrous?
Or is it a case of facing up to the inevitable and preparing for a Eurozone Crisis even worse than all the previous ones, and watching news reports of yet more fantastical sums of (northern European taxpayers) money being poured into the bottomless money pit that is the Eurozone? All to support an already failed and thoroughly discredited idealogical project, too save face for the Brussels Eurocrats who will remain, as always, detached and personally unaffected by the next round of economic chaos
The Greeks plan A was to walk away from half the debt. The Plan B is to switch debt into nonsensical "GDP bonds" or low interest perpetuals (ie debt which is never repaid). Both of these would have a huge cost to EU taxpayers.
The Greeks are trying to get a "bridge loan", ie yet more money with no conditions other than we will enter into talks about a new agreement. To grant that would make no sense as the Greece wants to EU to agree it will no longer be obliged to honour the previous agreement.
The Troika packages are working in that Greece is adjusting it's economy to balance income and expenditure. In fact it has a huge amount more work to do to counteract corruption, tax evasion and restrictive practices in it's economy. The alternative to austerity, ie spend more to grow would have resulted in an even larger debt which would have been even less likely to be repaid.
The meeting last night stopped after 2 hours (plus the eurozone members where pretty mad at Greece for leaking the draft documents being discussed during the meeting). So far from an all night session thrashing out a deal, the eurozone finance ministers did the sensible thing after hearing of Syriza's stance of stating that no decision or agreement was likely and giving Greece a deadline of Friday to agree to honour the existing agreement.
Round and round and round - just repeating slogans.
Greece CANNOT "honour" the existing agreement, because it requires that they defy gravity. Now - what's your solution? That infinite future generations of Greeks be "punished" for the history of the 20th century, the profligacy of their governments, the recklessness of German bankers and the egos of Dutch Eurocrats? Or is there maybe a better way? What would you have told the Germans in 1953?
@binners, I think there is too much at stake in the EU / eurozone to let one financially irresponsible country of 11m people derail the whole project. Greece was rescued in 2009 as a default then could have threatened other weaker members such as Portugal and Ireland and potentially even Spain and Italy. Now those countries have adjusted through "austerity" and could withstand a Greek exit. I personally think the impact of a Grexit will be much less severe on the rest of the EU than commentators are claiming. I think it would lead to closer integration of the remaining countries as the current setup is far too lose for a currency union to work.
There is no room for significant negotiation by the eurozone/EU, further Greek bailout debt forgiveness is politically impossible for the government/voters of Germany/France/Spain/Italy etc and also the risks of contagion to other EU countries in the event of a sweet deal for Greece is far too great. If you think about it a sweet deal for Greece will lead to voters elsewhere asking for a similar sweet deal by voting in similar parties to Syriza at the expense of he current politicians. In any case who will actually pay for these deals ?
Syriza cannot budge as they have already backtracked on their 50% debt write off promise and to sign up to extending the current deal would be a total climb down in front of their voters. The reality is Greece voted for a fantasy which cannot be delivered.
Thats pretty much what I've thought from the off Jammy. Neither side really had any room for manoeuvre, so all these 'negotiations' were never going to resolve anything, as both sides are answerable to their electorates, one of whom appears to be living in cloud cuckoo land.
So are we seriously looking at a Greek drop out from the Euro by the end of the month? Or will it be the usual Eurozone fudge, to allow the can kicking to carry on for that little bit longer?
Surely we're reaching the point now where they just have to let the inevitable happen?
Cost to creditors? This has to happen. The Germans think that all the pain can be absorbed by debtors - that is merely to forget history and we know what happens next.
So one side - persist with a policy that cannot we work
The other - we can't, it doesn't work
And repeat....
both sides are answerable to their electorates
Really? Who voted for Dijselbloem?
More realistically, the original Moscovici document from last night represents a way forward with face-saving for all.
So Greece leave.
What happens the morning after?
The Troika packages are working in that Greece is adjusting it's economy to balance income and expenditure
This is the main thing I have an issue with. Define 'working'. Anyone with a shred of compassion and empathy would agree that grinding an entire population into poverty is not a price worth paying to balance the books of countries/banks who lent them the money. Especially when the same solution guarantees that the lenders won't get their money back. Looking at it from the Greek point of view, it's a vindictive and aggressive exercise in noses being cut off to spite faces, and the end result is the greek population being ground into the dirt. It's a simple question of fairness and humanity. The greek people have been shown neither.
[quote=zippykona ]So Greece leave.
What happens the morning after?
The spanish leave?
Dr J - The EU is a fundamentally undemocratic grouping, at the business end. But we all know who's pulling the strings on this one. And she is democratically elected and has to answer to the German electorate, who have made it crystal clear that they won't be putting up with any more of Greece's shenanigans
I don't think the lenders expect their money back (despite what they say), but don't want to give anymore into a bottomless pit, unless there are binding conditions. So they don't mind a delay as it enables them to shore up their side and at the same time play hardball with Greece as they have more to loose. The Greeks are going to get burned either way, it's just matters of degree.
Anyone with a shred of compassion and empathy would agree that grinding an entire population into poverty is not a price worth paying to balance the books of countries/banks who lent them the money.
The powers that be seem pretty certain that that is indeed a price worth paying. Compassion and empathy aren't the fundamental principles of the EU. Money is. And Corporatist Federal Power. And the Greeks are presently a threat to that power. They've got no chance!
The powers that be seem pretty certain that that is indeed a price worth paying.
That much is evident. From my point of view I don't see the difference between this and military invasion. The end result is pretty much the same, if not as extreme. The greeks have realised this and it's why they've elected a govt who are at least using the language of defending themselves against this aggression. Whether it's followed up by action remains to be seen but it'll be interesting to see where it leads and whether it'll result in resistance growing in other countries.
jambalaya - MemberSyriza cannot budge as they have already backtracked on their 50% debt write off promise and to sign up to extending the current deal would be a total climb down in front of their voters. The reality is Greece voted for a fantasy which cannot be delivered.
And still you cannot help yourself from making stuff up.
Syriza fought the 25th January general election claiming that they would not pay what they considered to be the "odious" part of Greece's debt. The figure for this odious debt according to Syriza stood at 5% not 50%.
Your figure of 50% is just something else that you've made up with scant regards to actual facts because you feel that it will make your argument stronger.
Try using the truth to make your arguments more convincing.
dazh - MemberAnyone with a shred of compassion and empathy would agree that grinding an entire population into poverty is not a price worth paying to balance the books of countries/banks who lent them the money. Especially when the same solution guarantees that the lenders won't get their money back. Looking at it from the Greek point of view, it's a vindictive and aggressive exercise in noses being cut off to spite faces, and the end result is the Greek population being ground into the dirt. It's a simple question of fairness and humanity. The Greek people have been shown neither.
I couldn't have put it better myself, so I won't bother to try - I'm not educated and eloquent enough to do so.
What I will say, however, is that jambalaya's posts smell a bit too strongly of schadenfreude for my liking, if a German noun is appropriate here
Maybe ?????????? would be a better choice?
[quote=ernie_lynch said]
And still you cannot help yourself from making stuff up.
Syriza fought the 25th January general election claiming that they would not pay what they considered to be the "odious" part of Greece's debt. The figure for this odious debt according to Syriza stood at 5% not 50%.
Your figure of 50% is just something else that you've made up with scant regards to actual facts because you feel that it will make your argument stronger.
Try using the truth to make your arguments more convincing.
It is very confusing. The following BBC article states "The headline-grabbing Syriza policy that has shaken the eurozone is a promise to write off most of Greece's €319bn ($363bn; £239bn) debt"
Is that incorrect ? "most of" would seem more than 5% to me.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31003070
Is that incorrect ?
Yes it's incorrect. Syriza policy was the cancellation of the odious part of the debt, under international law odious debt is an illegal debt and Syriza claimed that it could legally refuse that part of the debt. Before last month's general election they had calculated it to be 5% of the total debt. They didn't previously put a figure to the odious debt which led to speculation.
EDIT : It would be fairer to say that Syriza position was that it would [i]negotiate[/i] what the odious debt was but suggested before the election that it was 5%.
Ernine where did you get 5% from - a reduction of the Greek debts by 5% would make no difference to them at all, no notable difference to their debt interest costs or to the amount they have to repay. Syriza promised to the electorate to write off 50% of the debt, well try to anyway and do away with cuts to spending on wages and pensions. What is supposed to be odious about the extra 5%, that's a rounding error in Greece's debt mountain.
@dazh - you are using words best suited to charitable giving and frankly perhaps thats the solution for Greece, they should appeal to the citizens of the EU for charity as lending them more money without reforms does not make sound financial sense. The Greeks could help themselves by raising more taxes on those able to pay. The Greeks put themselves in this position, they dug their own hole, made their own bed. The Greeks don;t really seem to acknowledge much better off they are than if they where outside the euro or the EU. Look around at their neighbours, eurostat shows Turkish GDP/capita is 7,500 whereas Greece is at 26,000 and in fact there is no figure for 2013 as I suspect no one believes the data coming out of Greece.
Debt / GDP Greece 175%, Italy 127%, Portugal 128%, Ireland 123%. Ernie the chart you keep posting is to the EU average and there are many well managed countries with debt/gdp well below 100%, in fact in particular the smaller / weaker economies as they are smart enough not to burden themselves with excessive debt, so this skews the figures. If there is a chart it should be versus the other comparably managed economies. The other material issue with Greek GDP is so much of it was based upon borrowed money, when the loan drug tap was turned down it was natural the economy would contract as so much of it was a fantasy
@AndyR it's not Schadenfreude at all, its about taking responsibility for your actions. The everyday Greek is well aware of the free ride they where taking on the back of their EU membership, they knew what they where intending to do which is why they where so happy to be allowed to join. I am of the view that I am being very generous to Greece by allowing them to stay in the euro by honouring the deal they signed. I think that's bordering on EU charity as its makes no commercial sense.
Ernine where did you get 5% from - a reduction of the Greek debts by 5% would make no difference to them at all, no notable difference to their debt interest costs or to the amount they have to repay. Syriza promised to the electorate to write off 50% of the debt, well try to anyway and do away with cuts to spending on wages and pensions. What is supposed to be odious about the extra 5%, that's a rounding error in Greece's debt mountain.
[i][b]"Giorgos Stathakis, a Syriza MP and member of the team responsible for drafting the party’s economic policy has stated in an interview that only 5% of Greece’s debt can be considered ‘odious’ and unilaterally written off. The remainder he says, is ‘traditional’ and legally must be paid in full although a restructuring of the debt is essential for it to be sustainable".[/b][/i]
Syriza went into the general election claiming that they would unilaterally write off 5% of the debt, your claim of 50% is false.
Furthermore after forming a government Syriza immediately abandoned the odious debt claim and is no longer pursuing it, your earlier claim that it was still requesting that be allowed to walk away from [i]"a large portion"[/i] of debt is therefore equally false.
For the record I disagree with Syriza's position and in line with the KKE I consider the entire debt to be an odious debt and would support the unilateral cancellation of it. But then unlike Syriza I'm also strongly anti-EU.
Anyway that's my position not that of Syriza which is nowhere as radical as make out they are, with your grossly exaggerated and false claims concerning their policies.
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Ernie the chart you keep posting is to the EU average and there are many well managed countries with debt/gdp well below 100%, in fact in particular the smaller / weaker economies as they are smart enough not to burden themselves with excessive debt, so this skews the figures. If there is a chart it should be versus the other comparably managed economies. The other material issue with Greek GDP is so much of it was based upon borrowed money, when the loan drug tap was turned down it was natural the economy would contract as so much of it was a fantasy
I keep posting it to remind you that it was right-wing conservative governments in Greece which went on spending sprees, a point which you conveniently brush aside as you go about chastising the left in general and the left in Greece in particular.
And as I pointed out earlier they were particularly keen to go shopping for military hardware much of it ironically from Germany. So the Germans lent money to Greek conservative governments so that they could buy weapons from them, how odious.
Of course jambalaya you quite predictably defend this "money-is-no-object-when-it-comes-to-military-hardware" policy of past Greek conservative governments, claiming that they needed to spend stupid amounts of money on their military to counter a supposed external threat.
According to you despite being a full NATO member Greece cannot rely on its NATO membership to defend it from an attack from another NATO member state. According to you NATO cannot guarantee peace between its own member states.
All of which if true makes the KKE's criticism of Syriza's pro-NATO policy particularly valid. IE NATO membership costs Greece a considerable amount of money and does not guarantee Greece peace, not even from other NATO members. In other words NATO membership does not benefit the Greek people.
More realistically, the original Moscovici document from last night represents a way forward with face-saving for all.
DrJ the Moscovici proposal comes from EU countries not on the hook for Greek debts. The people with the money, ie the eurozone, rejected it.
ernie, it doesn't really matter who got Greece into this mess left or right ? The debt belongs to the country. You don't get to walk away from the debt of the past governments just because you don't like it or you have a democratic mandate. German banks lent money to Greece as they thought debt to GDP was about 80 when in fact the Greeks where lying and it was closer to 100. If the Greeks have German military hardware they can sell it back to the Germans. They would be better served taking up Germany's proposal to have 500 tax inspectors work in Greece. There is now a property tax in Greece which is hugely unpopular, that's because its a tax you actually have to pay.
Not sure where I was defending arms sales to Greece, you have to treat Greece as a country capable of making its own decisions, if they chose to buy weapons fair enough. Did I make any comment about NATO ? Greece has a big army as Cyprus was invaded by the Turks.
I don't get why people say that Greece wants to write off its debts that is not the case. They want to remove the crude austerity conditions connected to the previous bail out and a [b]restructuring of the debt[/b]. At the moment Greece cannot afford to service its debts because a lack of economic growth they are borrowing money simply to service their debts.
However if Greece was to exit the Eurozone then it would be in a position to unilaterally write off many of its debts.