[Closed] Greek election - extreme left won

EDIT : Failed link. See below.

I've seen worse than that in Salford 6 on an average Saturday night! 😉

I mean sustained rioting in a number of countries simultaneously, calling for a massive crackdown by the authorities. Troops on the streets etc. 50% + youth unemployment against the whole southern half of a continent I thought would have been a catalyst for this

there hasn't been serious civil unrest

What do you call "serious" ?

[url= %3Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fpublicintelligence.net%252Fgreece-riot-photos-december-2011%252F%3B3696%3B2448]CLICK[/url]

Ernie, you might enjoy Krugman's latest missive (he won Nobel prize BTW)

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/06/opinion/a-game-of-chicken.html

Like all too many crises, the new Greek crisis stems, ultimately, from political pandering. It’s the kind of thing that happens when politicians tell voters what they want to hear, make promises that can’t be fulfilled, and then can’t bring themselves to face reality and make the hard choices they’ve been pretending can be avoided.

Of course, expectations of where the article goes next is a good indicator of the lenses through which you view this story!!!

Yes THM I did enjoy that article by Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman.

I particularly enjoyed reading the line that you missed out at the end of your quote. This One :

[i]I am, of course, talking about Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and her colleagues.[/i]

Bloody hell Ernie, where's the spoiler? That's the whole point of my comment.

What comes next is indeed interesting. In fact the most interesting point. I was letting people imagine before reading what Krugman said. Still time to edit.......otherwise the exercise is ruined 😯

KM used capital, capitalist for sure, capitalism not sure. Semantics, semantics...... 😉

On the point of semantics, is the Noble prize and alternative one to add to his list. I didn't have him down as noble personally!!

the line that you missed out

[img] [/img]

Sorry - had to be done 🙂

As I suggested previously they have probably peaked.

Yes, you stated that without proof before. Let's see if you still think it after more austerity has increased the poverty level even more and people are starving in the streets.

I provided the proof that it had "probably" peaked by pointing out that its vote hadn't increased in the recent elections and was in fact very slightly down, and they lost one MP.

Given the present situation if Golden Dawn were able to exploit it any [i]further[/i] then it would be reasonable to expect to have done so in the recent elections.

For me it suggests that their support has probably peaked. Of course you don't have to agree with me - I'm not asking you to 🙂

the present situation

The present situation is that Greeks are optimistic that Syriza can enact some changes within the EU. When/if the olive branch is knocked from their hand by Schauble, there will be a new situation. Let's see how that plays out before dismissing the possibility of a return to fascism in Greece.

THM wasn't the only one with his thinking cap on three years ago ...
[url= http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2011/12/15/never-bailed-out-europes-ants-and-grasshoppers-revisited/ ]http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2011/12/15/never-bailed-out-europes-ants-and-grasshoppers-revisited/[/url]

A good find and a good read Doc!!

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2011/12/15/never-bailed-out-europes-ants-and-grasshoppers-revisited/

I told you he was a smart guy 🙂 You don't get to where Valve is without knowing your shit.

Also - how refreshing to read, not like the claptrap soundbites we get here. I'd vote for him.

Let's see how that plays out before dismissing the possibility of a return to fascism in Greece.

You don't seem to read my posts properly, which is fair enough and there is absolutely no reason why you should, except that you are commenting on them.

For example this bit you seem to have completely missed :

[i]"the threat from fascism should never be ignored"[/i]

And this bit :

[i]"it is a historical fact that fascism thrives on being ignore"[/i]

So as you can see I don't really need lessons on the threat posed by fascism.

I do however like to keep things within reasonable perspectives - it's not always helpful to exaggerate potential threats. And I think the suggestion that the Nazis might be getting close to achieving power in Greece is probably a slight exaggeration. Although I can understand why Varoufakis might be a tad over dramatic - he desperately wants/needs to secure an agreement, and he's right at least to point out/emphasis that the possible political consequences of him not achieving a deal could be bad for the whole of the EU, ie, it's more likely to strengthen rather than weaken anti-EU parties such as Golden Dawn and the KKE.

You are of course free to disagree with my judgement on the matter 🙂

And I think the suggestion that the Nazis might be getting close to achieving power in Greece is probably a slight exaggeration.

You're right - that could never happen ...

[img] [/img]

Interesting comments here. I don't understand German but I guess the summary is accurate.

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/06/stop-squeezing-syriza-europe-greece-eurozone-crisis#comment-47221815 ]http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/06/stop-squeezing-syriza-europe-greece-eurozone-crisis#comment-47221815[/url]

You're right - that could never happen ...

Nice picture, thank you.

So now you want to continue the theme of exaggeration and over dramatics by equating the military dictatorship under the colonels with the Nazis ?

And you can't distinguish between :

[i]"the suggestion that the Nazis might be getting close to achieving power in Greece is probably a slight exaggeration"[/i]

And :

[i]"that could never happen"[/i]

Fair enough. I probably can't help you.

Well I wonder exactly how many people a regime has to imprison or torture before in your eyes it starts to bear any comparison to Nazism? For sure the colonels didn't ruin a full fledged system of gas chambers but spiriting thousands away to torture camps and execution on remote islands surely deserves marks for effort?

Well if that's your criteria then presumably you think the US has a Nazi regime.

Extrajudicial imprisonment and torturing people does not define a Nazi regime. I have never heard the past military dictatorship in Greece being described as "Nazi", nor the US, beyond the childish rantings of teenage ultra-lefties obviously.

It's clear, to me at least, that when Varoufakis warned of the rise of nazism in Greece he was referring to growing electoral success for Golden Dawn, not the possibility of a coup staged by middle-ranking officers. An EU imposed dictatorship of unelected Eurocrats, as has already previously happened in Greece, is more likely than that.

And as I have said several times now I think he was over-egging the threat a tad, but who can blame him for that? He's engaged in high stakes brinkmanship and the whole Syriza strategy at the present rests on him securing an agreement.

Maybe when the US starts executing its own citizens for publishing a subversive poem I'll be tempted to use the N word in that connection.

It's clear, to me at least, that when Varoufakis warned of the rise of nazism in Greece he was referring to growing electoral success for Golden Dawn

I hardly think so. I suspect he had in mind more their paramilitary activities than their success at the ballot box. I don't think he was over-egging anything, rather that he has a personal knowledge of Greece's recent history.

I suspect he had in mind more their paramilitary activities than their success at the ballot box.

So he 's thinking along the same lines as me then ?

This is what I said yesterday concerning Golden Dawn :

ernie_lynch - Member

The threat they pose is more associated to the violence and criminal activity rather than achieving meaningful power.

Posted 1 day ago #:

It turns out that me and Varoufakis are singing from the same hymn sheet.

Well I'm glad that's settled 8)

Because meaningful power is never achieved through violence, right?

I see, so if the Troika doesn't reach an agreement with Syriza there is a good chance that Golden Dawn will violently seize power in Greece, as opposed to my view which is that if the Troika doesn't reach an agreement with Syriza it is unlikely that Golden Dawn will violently seize power in Greece.

Thank you for correcting me DrJ.

Anyway now that's all been sorted out and getting back to the OP anymore thoughts about the "extreme left" winning the election in Greece, apart from the worrying prospect that it might quite likely lead to the Nazis seizing power ?

oh I do miss ernie when he is not here.

Obviously, like everyone else, we are just speculating. My speculations, however, have the virtue of being informed by historical precedent. Failure to reach an agreement could well result in Greece leaving the Euro and economic turmoil. A similar situation has been used in the past as a pretext for military rule. Call them Nazis or call them very naughty boys, it's not an episode that brought great joy to the country.

Call them Nazis or call them very naughty boys

You say it as if there is no distinction between the two. It's fair to call Golden Dawn neo-Nazis because that's exactly what they are. But it's not always helpful to use the Nazi label against anyone whose ideology you strongly disagree with, it can be both very misleading and dangerously dilute the criminal character of Nazism. Hence the reason why Godwin's law has gained some traction on internet debates. Use the label when it's appropriate.

No one can know with any certainty how things will pan out in Greece but I think it's probably a tad premature to talk of the rise of Nazism and military coups quite yet.

Syriza is backpedaling on the debt issue while increasing the anti-Germany rhetoric including nonsense about suing the Germans for WW2 reparations.

Now understand that they have accepted there will be no debt haircut and will delay or push back their reforms (eg minimum wage 580 back to 750 will be phased in). Unless the EU agree further loans the Greeks will run out of money very soon. I predict lots of talking at the summit this week and no or very limited concessions.

DrJ a Greek default/euro exit could well lead to a resurgence of the right or even military rule (soldiers want to get paid). Not least as there will probably be a big negative reaction to the devastation Syriza will have brought. Certainly an ugly scenario.

Portugeese finance minister chipped in over the weekend saying they had got their house in order and the Greeks should do the same.

Read this earlier, from a US based writer;

[i]Some final thoughts on Greece. Syriza comprises an amalgam of parties stretching the spectrum from center left to insanely left. They have never been in power, and they have no clue as to what running a country actually requires. Greece is essentially starting a rookie quarterback in their equivalent of the Super Bowl. Sometimes that turns out well, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Recent statements and actions by various new ministers in Greece are not encouraging. They look like the Keystone Cops of governing.
If Tsipras and Syriza use this opportunity to clean out some of the corruption that is endemic in Greece, and do so without replacing it with any of their own, that would be positive. However, Syriza gave the far-right-wing separatist party (their majority coalition partner) the position of minister of defense, whereupon the appointee demanded and won the right to execute defense purchasing contracts with just one signature – his. Which could be a step back to corruption as usual in Greece. If the corruption is not dealt with, things are not likely to improve. Syriza still has to govern, though, making the trains run, making sure healthcare is available, etc. The jury is out, and it would not surprise me if voters get frustrated in less than a year and we see Greek elections again.
[/i]

10, 9, 8.......

However, Syriza gave the far-right-wing separatist party (their majority coalition partner) the position of minister of defence, whereupon the appointee demanded and won the right to execute defence purchasing contracts with just one signature – his. Which could be a step back to corruption as usual in Greece.

Or rewarding their right-wing coalition partners with just enough rope to hang themselves with, I can imagine the conversations;

[i]"Yep they're welcome to run the Defence ministry, just make sure they are told how small the defence budget is and that there's no audit or authorisation trail leading anywhere near Syriza, So when they do revert to type we have enough dirt to win the next election"[/i]...

I find the war reparations thing a bit unpleasant TBH, it does suggest they are running out of ideas and it's just descending into anti-German mud slinging for the folks back home...
The major task is going to be rooting out corruption and tax evasion still, the "getting their own house in order" stuff...

I find the war reparations thing a bit unpleasant TBH, it does suggest they are running out of ideas and it's just descending into anti-German mud slinging for the folks back home...

I find the war reparations thing a bit unpleasant TBH

I thought the reparations thing was settled and what they're chasing is repayment of a loan to the German government?

The crux is whether it was a loan or stolen, if the latter, then the reparations should have covered it

Read this earlier, from a US based writer

Not an unnamed "US based writer" ?! Gosh, who can argue with that........it must be true !

Anyone based in the US must be an expert, just like that US based terrorism expert regularly used by Fox News who informed us that Birmingham is a no-go area for non-Muslims.

Of course some US based writers have a different opinion, such as Paul Kruman - he's quite supportive of Syriza, quote :

[i]But a genuine government of the left, as opposed to the center-left, is very different — not because its policy ideas are wild and crazy, which they aren’t, but because its officials are never going to be held in high esteem by the Davos set. Alexis Tsipras is not going to be on bank boards of directors, president of the BIS, or, probably, an EU commissioner. Varoufakis doesn’t even like wearing ties — which, consciously or not, is a way of declaring visually that he is not going to play the usual game. [/i]

[url= http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/09/greece-the-tie-that-doesnt-bind/?module=BlogPost-ReadMore&version=Blog%20Main&action=Click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body#more-38108 ]Greece: The Tie That Doesn’t Bind[/url]

Did you know that Paul Krugman won the Noble Prize for economics ?

Depending on who you believe but apparently Cyprus is moving nearer to Russia with plans for a base there only 40 miles from the RAF base. The same RAF base which just happens to have GCHQ and NSA based there and has in the past had U2's fly out of.

[img] [/img]

One thing for sure is the next 12 months are going to be one rocky ride.

Interesting article here on the Greek negotiation strategy:

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/09/greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game ]Greece-is-playing-to-lose-the-debt-crisis-poker-game[/url]

You keep mentioning this Ernie, but as an economist I have never heard of this Noble prize. Is is a poor man's Nobel prize?

Don't forget Friedman won one of those (the proper ones) too!

@ernie, its an opinion piece, just happens to say what I think so I posted it.

Indeed the Greek Government is not part of the "Davos Set"/EU commissioner/bank board of directors but the fact is the nation collectively borrowed from them so their opinion matters, in fact they call the shots in this case as that's what the contract/deal says.

@dragon, thanks for posting that I had missed it. I liked this bit ...

[i]Varoufakis’s idea of strategy is to hold a gun to his own head, then demand a ransom for not pulling the trigger.[/i]

Blazing saddles anyone?

@ernie, its an opinion piece, just happens to say what I think so I posted it.

Yes I grasped that 🙂

I'm just not sure why you think the opinion of an unnamed "US based" writer is particularly valid, even if he does agree with you.

With every person you find that agrees with you I can find someone who agrees with me. It doesn't make either of us right. Whether it's your ex-boss's Argentine wife or an unnamed US based writer, everyone has opinions.

.

THM it's more than just "a poor man's Nobel prize", it's a dyslexic man's Nobel prize - so even more prestigious. Anyone who understands economics and is also dyslexic deserves a special prize.

🙂

John Maudlin, I can name check him as I checked I didn't breach his T&C's by posting it. Free weekly newsletter.

[url= http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/portfolio-strategies-2015-investing-in-an-age-of-divergence ]Thoughts from the Frontline[/url]

but the fact is the nation collectively borrowed from them

n + 1 🙄

Never heard of him. What prize laureate is he then ?

Easier to blame apple autocorrect - that's what kills my posts!!!

I am waiting for a Nobble prize for screwing a country - to the proponents of the €!! 😉

In the end, who will blink?

Still most likely to be the Eurocrats. They don't know how to handle someone without a tie!!!

lNot least as there will probably be a big negative reaction to the devastation Syriza will have brought. Certainly an ugly scenario.

Just words. The fact is that Greece cannot pay the debts no matter how much of a hardon it gives you to think of people starving. The question is now, what to do about it. Two options - restructuring the debt to permit some economic growth or kicking Greece out of the EZ

Kicking out of the EZ?

How about giving the Greeks the ability to manage their own exchange rate. The rest of the world is involved in competitive devaluation. Why not the Greeks?