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I didnt even realise it was Grosjean, I thought it was still Wurz🙈
I see it’s prediction season in the media. So, anyone want to make some bold predictions here just for fun before the season starts? How about five each, and you’re not allowed “Hamilton wins the title”.
Let’s kick off with:
1. Bottas won’t finish in the top three in the championship.
2. McLaren will join Merc and RB at the top tier and Alpha Tauri will be best of the rest.
3. The Ferrari drivers will come to blows on-track and off.
4. Perez will have fewer poles and no more wins than Verstappen but will finish the season with more points.
5. Mazepin will get a race ban.
Your crystal ball says…?
Good idea, here's mine:
1. Verstappen will announce that he is leaving RBR at the Austrian GP.
2. Williams will switch to Renault engines for 2022.
3. The McLaren drivers will hit each other during a race.
4. Aston Martin will score at least three podiums, none will be Seb.
5. Alonso will not finish the season.
1 Williams will make at least one Q3 session
2 Vettel won't outclass Stroll at AM
3 Alonso to be out qualified by Ocon overall but end up with better race results
4 Rich Energy will not buy a team, become a sponsor or even sell a can of drink at an F1 circuit
5 Mclaren will win a race, it'll take unusual circumstances but it'll happen
1. Vettel and Lance Stroll will run into each other more than once.
2. Verstappen will get a race ban for punching someone in the pit lane
3. Binnoti will be sacked after Monza as Ferrari are still underperforming
4. We'll have a new race winner
5. Haas will either disappear or by bought out by the end of the season
Bottas and Perez will both be demolished by their teammates. Perez will struggle to qualify near Verstappen, while Bottas will struggle in races, with Ricciardo and Alonso picking those two off quite regularly.
Ricciardo will finish in the top four, with Bottas fifth.
Vettel will get thrashed by Ricciardo, Alonso, Leclerc, and Sainz.
Merc and Red Bull will take the first two championship spots, with McLaren third, Alpha Tauri fourth, then Ferrari and Renault. Tsunoda's inexperience will leave Gasly battling the McLarens on his own for the first half of the season.
Norris and Sainz will be close to Ricciardo and Leclerc, and that will lift those two teams in the constructor's championship, but Ocon will struggle against Alonso and cost Renault.
Hmm, some good predictions so far. Here are mine:
1. Mazepin will receive a race ban for unsportsmanlike conduct
2. Ricciardo will be a regular top six qualifyer
3. Russell to score maiden Williams points at Silverstone
4. Gasly will outscore Stroll, Alonso will outscore Ocon
5. Norris will score at least two podiums
I predict that by July my wife will be saying "Isn't this s-hit coming to and end soon?". 🤣
"No dear, it will be done just in time for Christmas!" 😬😬
Here's mine:
1. Mclaren will win a race
2. Russell will sub at Merc again
3. Alonso will get a podium
4. Championship will come down the the last 2 races
5. Merc will struggle for dominance
The podium is probably a fertile ground for predictions so I’m in for a second helping:
1. The team with the most double podiums will be Red Bull.
2. The only teams with double podiums will be Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren.
3. Alonso will get multiple podiums. Ocon will get none.
4. The driver with the most podiums will be Perez.
5. In one crazy race thrown into chaos by either weather or safety cars, a stroke of luck on pit stop timings will see either Alfa Romeo or Williams on the podium.
Mika Hakkinen to announce return from sabbatical.
Ferarri's engine will not be as bad as everyone is expecting and LeClerc will be 3rd in the championship
smokey_jo
Full MemberFerarri’s engine will not be as bad as everyone is expecting
Are we expecting the engine to be bad? I thought we were expecting a fair old leap back up the way (at least from the engine if not the rest of the car)
1 Alonso won't get a podium, cos the Renault (sorry, Alpine) will be heap of junk
2 Mclaren to score a race win with Riciardo
3 Bottas to finish outside top 5 in the Championship
4 Perez will be soundly beaten by his team mate
5 Christian Horner will blame everyone else for Red Bull not winning
1. Gasly will get a podium
2. Alonso will make the Alpine look like a better car than it actually is
3. Perez will give Verstappen a run for his money
4. Vettel will make Stroll look like an amateur.
5. Norris will outqualify Ricciardo in most races, Ricciardo will place higher in most races
and...
Verstappen 1st, Hamilton 2nd ,Bottas 3rd in the championship
oh yeah, forgot one, Hamilton will break the 100 barrier for race wins...which if it happens will be just amazing!
I would be bloody delighted to see McLaren score a race win, but realistically it's only going to happen if both Mercs and Red Bulls run into difficulties. Even then it's going to be hard work against the Astons. Even so, I do expect that they will maximise any opportunities in a way that Alpha Tauri, Aston and Alpine won't.
Here goes:
1. McLaren will win a race on merit.
2. Redbull will have issues with Perez and Ver when Perez starts to run Ver close.
3. Haas will be miles off the pace.
4. Alonso will get fed up at Alpine, quickly.
5. Ferrari will suck again.
1. This will be Vettel's last year, Stroll will beat him too often and he will call it a day. Replaced by Hulk.
2. Williams will beat Haas and Alpha
3. Perez will win two races
4. Bottas will lead the championship early on and then fade away (again)
5. The two drivers to hit each other most often will be Verstappen and Leclerc
1. Vettel will have a major tantrum because he will be out performed again
2. Verstappen won’t be consistent enough to win the title
3. Russel will race in the merc at some point. It would be great if it was in bottas’s car. Not that I wish any harm to bottas
4. Alonso wont last the season
1. Vettel will do just fine, to the point he’ll hardly be noticed. It’ll be his last year anyway
2. Russell wont get in a Merc, other than for a test
3. Alonso will underperform (relative to his ego), couple of 3rds
4. Perez will have a tough year, LeClerc will win 3 races
5. Norris wins 1
Mick Schumacher gets a podium out of nothing.
Hamilton to retire at the end of the season.
Hamilton to retire at the end of the season.
As champion, with Vettel and Alonso not bothering to finish the season, leaving no world champions on the grid next year.
Mick Schumacher gets a podium out of nothing.
Then gets punched by his teammate and sacked by teammate's dad.
Okay, my predictions
1. Championship will finish 1st Max, 2nd Bottas, 3rd Lewis.
2. At least three races will be cancelled due to the coronavirus.
3. Vettel won't make a full season.
4. There will be a major issue with the new tyres with teams demanding the old ones back.
5. Ferrari will be caught cheating and will have points removed.
As champion, with Vettel and Alonso not bothering to finish the season, leaving no world champions on the grid next year.
You're assuming that Raikonnen swaps his superlicence for his bus pass next year?
Jesus, forgot about Raikonnen. Easy to forget he used to be pretty quick.
1. Hamilton retires before the end of the season having passed 100 wins and eighth championship.
2. Red Bull disappointing after winter testing, Horner accuses Merc of sand bagging. Vettell returns for 2022.
3. Ferrari have problems with Sainz being quicker than leclerc.
4. McLaren pair provide plenty of on and off track entertainment.
5. Alpine turns out to be worse than Renault were and Alonso jumps ship,
Raikonnen is still pretty quick, some pundits suggest that the Alfa Romeo will be top of class C this year and may even embarrass Ferrari on occasion.
2. At least three races will be cancelled due to the coronavirus.
Thats already happened hasn't it?
Not sure why so many people think any of the multi-titled drivers would retire mid-season. Both Vettel and Alonso have their eyes (and contracts) on 2022 when the pecking order in theory goes out the window, so they’ll stick out this year whatever; and it’s unimaginable that Hamilton wouldn’t see the year out: why leave a huge stain on a stellar career by quitting mid-season?
I'm also astonished by the numbers of folk who see both Vettel and Alonso as somehow not the brilliant drivers they legitimately are. Everyone presumably saw last year; given the right car, even drivers like Russell can make the front row, when normally he's "fighting" for 19th.
Both of these drivers are multi-championship winners, with eyes on contracts for 2022 put them in a car that's even mildly competitive and they will wring every ounce of speed they can from them. It's daft to let personal feeling get in they way. (although I get that for some F1 is all about "good guys vs bad guys" )
I predict Vettel will struggle this year. It's been proven many times before (and especially in the blown diffuser days) that he needs a planted rear-end. And all the reports from pre season are saying the new floor regulations have damaged the low-rake principle of the Merc and Aston are damaged a lot more by them. With the high-rake principle working well.
https://the-race.com/formula-1/gary-anderson-have-new-f1-rules-hurt-low-rake-mercedes/
Alonso will destroy Ocon and end his career.
I still don't get all the Vettel hate, but there you go. He races with the number 5 because he grew up a Mansell fan, he even owns an ex-Mansell Fw-14B. I like the fact that he's a bit of a nerd too.
TBH, I hope that the move to Aston Martin is a success for him.
Alonso will destroy Ocon and end his career
Sadly, this. Ocon didn't convince against Ricciardo last year, he absolutely has to up his game against Alonso, especially as Gasly is waiting in the wings to potentially move to Alpine.
Both Vettel and Alonso have their eyes (and contracts) on 2022 when the pecking order in theory goes out the window, so they’ll stick out this year whatever;
Last year's AM was the third fastest car, but it looked difficult in the tests. If AM can't get on top of the problems really quickly, I can't see Vettel having much motivation to try. Stroll senior is not going to be happy to pay a guy who isn't trying, so danger of that turning into a death spiral.
Alonso just gets frustrated when things don't go well. He puts in a ferocious effort to drag a dog of a car to points finishes it doesn't deserve, but then thinks he can motivate the engineers by publicly criticizing them. The Renault engine has improved, but they might be back to being worst engine again if Ferrari have improved as much as they say. If they get to mid-season and Alonso can't see potential for 2022 being fully competitive, he's likely to start saying out loud exactly what he thinks.
There's zero chance Hamilton will walk away mid-season and I think he'll probably stick around for 2022, but he does seem to be starting to think about what he's going to do next. Wouldn't be a massive surprise if he decided he's achieved enough and wants a break.
I don't hate Vettel - I rather like him, he's one of the most light-hearted guys on the grid. Sadly, like Jenson, he needs a car that works in a very specific way.
Alonso just gets frustrated when things don’t go well.
I agree, but poor bloke he seems to jump to teams just as they're going downhill (see Maclaren and Ferrari) . I think he's more than aware of the career he could've had, I think it boils over sometimes...
@the-muffin-man thanks for the link to the Anderson article, very interesting.
And all the reports from pre season are saying the new floor regulations have damaged the low-rake principle of the Merc and Aston are damaged a lot more by them. With the high-rake principle working well.
That Gary Anderson article is nowhere near as definitive as your summary suggests. And it wouldn't be the first time Mercedes have started the season with a "diva" and then figured it out pretty quickly. Whereas Red Bull seem to take a whole season to sort their car.
That's just one report I've read Twodogs.
I'm not saying it will send them to the back of the grid - just highlighting how it may affect Vettel.
When Alonso signed, I predicted to a mate that there’d be a super-popcorn sideshow of him and Abiteboul publicly throwing each other’s toys out of their prams, but sadly that’s not to be. Anyway, it’ll certainly be interesting to find out whether he’s learned a shred of diplomacy during his time away.
Abiteboul - now there's a mystery - not just sacked from leading the F1 Team, but removed from the Renault group altogether.
Just looked on Wikipedia - can't believe he's only 43 - looks late 50's! 🙂
That Gary Anderson article is nowhere near as definitive as your summary suggests.
Yes. All we know is that Red Bull had a good test and their car looked well-balanced and easy to drive. The test was in gusty conditions and the Merc seemed affected by that, but it did seem to be reasonably quick and they didn't really do qualifying simulations so we don't know how the teams will compare on Saturday afternoon. It's also possible that there's something specific to Bahrain that highlights the weakness of the Merc and the strength of the Red Bull, so it's premature to conclude that the high-rake design has an advantage on all circuits. My guess is that the Merc and Red Bull will have circuit specific advantages, so Hamilton and Verstappen will both be taking poles and winning races right through to the end of the season.
Merc's objective for the test would have been to learn how the car behaves and whether what they saw in the wind tunnel was also seen in the real world. Merc have amazing technical resources so they will have learned a lot from that test and will be working on sorting out the instability. They will probably be in better shape this weekend and they have five weeks until the 3rd round in Portugal, so they will be working on a new aero kit to fix the problems.
Honda's engine redesign seems impressive, but there's always the danger of reliability problems with such big changes. Canada is round 7, so Honda need to be able to get past that without needing engine changes.
Abiteboul – now there’s a mystery – not just sacked from leading the F1 Team, but removed from the Renault group altogether.
Hmmm, not really when you think about it. When they came back into F1 the plan was podiums by 2018, and challenging for the championship by 2020. When you miss the first target by two years, and get nowhere near the second, and what's more the customer teams McLaren and racing Point are doing better than you...Heads are gonna roll.
what’s more the customer teams McLaren and racing Point are doing better than you
Well, RP had a clone of the best car on the grid. Getting beaten by McLaren, using the same engine, then having your $50 million star driver jump ship to them must have been hard to explain to the board.
Quite. Two places below McLaren is not a good result.
I'll bet there was some hasty knitting of a bottom cushion beforehand...
It’s also possible that there’s something specific to Bahrain that highlights the weakness of the Merc
I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that last year's race at Bahrain that the Merc was very hard to drive (understeer) around some of the tighter in-field corners, and also they had to turn the wick down a bit on the engine...None of which detracts from the fact that last year's race was totally dominated by RB and Verstappen in particular of course. But testing done in that same area is going to reflect on the Merc I'd have thought?
But then the Merc seemed prone to oversteer on turn-in, so have they disrupted their own balance or is the new floor just unstable in gusting wind? Well find out soon enough…
Well, RP had a clone of the best car on the grid. Getting beaten by McLaren, using the same engine, then having your $50 million star driver jump ship to them must have been hard to explain to the board.
Yup, I think that it's fair to say that Renault had the faster car more often than McLaren but Renault's strategists were behind the curve. McLaren rarely dropped the ball and had Racing Point not been given a penalty for their brake ducts, McLaren would've finished fourth.
Abiteboul in some way was a victim of his own lofty ambition, he inherited a Lotus team that was utterly skint and depleted and was going to require a lot of remedial investment to get back up to speed. It's clear that Renault-Nissan weren't prepared to stump up Mercedes levels of investment either.
Racing Point are the team that consistently out perform where they sit in terms of budget.
You have the big 3 (Merc, Ferr, RB) spending $400m+. Then you have the 2nd Tier (Renault, Mclaren) spending 250-300m, a third tier of about $200m annually which is Racing Point and Haas, and then the rest at rough $150m (Alfa, AlphaT and Williams).
Based on that you can kind of understand why Renault sacked Cyril. Only Ferrari's disaster saved them from 6th in the constructors.
PJM1974
Abiteboul in some way was a victim of his own lofty ambition, he inherited a Lotus team that was utterly skint and depleted and was going to require a lot of remedial investment to get back up to speed. It’s clear that Renault-Nissan weren’t prepared to stump up Mercedes levels of investment either.
Lotus were basically breaking even before Renault insisted they dropped Pastor and his sponsors, leaving a £30m hole in their budget.
Racing Point are the team that consistently out perform where they sit in terms of budget.
They were, but it's important to understand why. Now they want to step up to be title contenders, that will be difficult.
Back when they were struggling, they had no pretentions that they were just struggling to survive. They bought in any parts they could and had no compunctions about copying other teams designs (which isn't illegal.) Perez was technically a pay driver, his money saved the team from collapse.
The problem with buying parts and copying designs is that you don't understand the thinking behind the designs. RP copied the Merc, but they don't understand the details of the aerodynamic design because they don't have the wind tunnel data used to refine them. Now they have an unstable car, but I think they may struggle to fix it, whereas the Merc engineers understand the fundamental concepts of how it works.
Same goes with things like transmissions, brakes, etc. Williams and McLaren can still build an entire car because they always had the philosophy that they aimed to challenge for championships, even though it would have been cheaper to buy those in. Next year the rules change and RP/AM don't have full control over the design of their car because they are stuck with Merc transmissions. If Merc get the design right, AM might come in second, but they won't come first because you will never win championships by copying.
McLaren and Williams stuck to the idea that they aimed to challenge for championships and needed to be able to design every part of the car rather than aiming to be top of the B teams. The reason Ricciardo went to McLaren is that they were the top option available for 2022 (rejected by Red Bull, Merc, and Ferrari). McLaren are far from favourites for next year, but they can't be discounted at title contenders because they understand how to build a complete car. Racing Point only ever aimed to survive by beating the mid-field teams, they won't be title contenders next year because they don't have the infrastructure to do that.
Funny thing is I quite like Vettel as a person. He became insufferable during the last 18 months or so of his championship years at RB and some of the time at Ferrari. However, away from the race track or out of the kitchen heat of racing he is quite personable. My sense is that AM wanted him as much for his experience and what he might be able to bring to the team in helping them to develop and not just a vain hope that he might help them win more races on the track. Before we get to the first weekend I am quite looking forward to this season as it does feel as though there could be quite a big shake up - especially if RB are fast out of the gates. Agre with other comments that Mercedes are a class act and do appear to have the ability to get to grips with issues in their cars quite quickly - although they did struggle a couple of seasons ago in trying to get the tyres into their operating window. In the end it didn't matter too much as Vettel failed to capitalise and RB weren't fast enough early enough in the season. I can certainly anticipate tensions at RB between Perez and Max which, ironically, may end up costing them vital points. Really looking forward to the season!
. My sense is that AM wanted him as much for his experience and what he might be able to bring to the team in helping them to develop and not just a vain hope that he might help them win more races on the track.
Vettel and Adrian Newey had a close relationship at Red Bull, they communicated well and built a series of cars that won four WDCs on the trot.
RP copied the Merc, but they don’t understand the details of the aerodynamic design because they don’t have the wind tunnel data used to refine them. Now they have an unstable car, but I think they may struggle to fix it, whereas the Merc engineers understand the fundamental concepts of how it works.
I'm beginning to come round to this way of thinking - on outright pace RP should not have finished fourth last year, something was amiss. This year they've tinkered with the car and installed 2020 Merc rear suspension but they don't appear to be able to tie it all together.
The reason Ricciardo went to McLaren is that they were the top option available for 2022 (rejected by Red Bull, Merc, and Ferrari). McLaren are far from favourites for next year, but they can’t be discounted at title contenders because they understand how to build a complete car.
McLaren have infrastructure work in the pipeline, including a state of the art wind tunnel that's likely to be completed early next year. The '22 car may not benefit from this data in it's initial form, but it's sure to develop rapidly after that.
I’d love to see McLaren back at the front. Still my favourite team - the start of the Senna/Prost era was my introduction to F1.
been looking forward to this season more than any other for a while. Don't like supporting a team over another but I can't wait to see if RB and the others can bring the fight to Mercedes.
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Alonso slowest so far...I see toys flying soon 🙂
He should have themed toys for each race - cuddly camels for Bahrain perhaps!...
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🙂
Vettel doing cheesy Aston Ads.
Bottas fastest, Hamilton third...Norris second(!). Six minutes left.
Both Astons slower than the Alfa Romeos, Ocon and Alonso further back than predicted.
And Verstappen now fastest.
And Verstappen now fastest.
and fewest laps
Verstappen ballsed up the final sector of his fast lap too apparently.
Don't mean a thing until Sunday afternoon though.
Promising FP1! Hopefully bodes well for some good battles.
Well, those top 9 spots are all pretty volatile 🙂 Five teams in the top 7 suggests a good few drivers have more to come.
Couple of interesting things below there in what looks like it might be a more stable bit of the table, though: specifically Alfa and Alpine quite precisely swapping places compared to where I’d expect them.
Will be interesting seeing how this shakes out over the weekend 🙂
Verstappen ballsed up the final sector of his fast lap too apparently.
and Hamilton was fastest in first sector, but got traffic in the next 2, apparently
Alpine not looking too good there, massive gap to the front and potentially within striking distance of Williams?
Dunno why, but I thought Williams would have made a bit more progress. Still looking a long way off the pace.
Have I missed something with Alfa? They were really struggling last year & it was pretty sad to see Raikonnen fishing around at the back of the field. Firmly in the mid-pack though based off that short practice session.
Interesting to see Vettel already faster than Stroll - I would expect that to be a sign of things to come?
Haas looking like they are just going to be making up the numbers this year.
Tsunoda fastest of the new boys...I've heard lots good about him.
Alpine say they were just focusing on long-run pace, not qualifying. I hope that's the case, otherwise this is what their debrief with Alonso is going to look like.
I don’t know about anyone else but I’ll chuck a fiver in the hat to bribe the Alpine pit wall to send the radio message “Esteban is faster than you”.
Dunno why, but I thought Williams would have made a bit more progress. Still looking a long way off the pace.
I think like Haas - the new money has arrived a bit too late for them and they are focussing on next years car (which is logical). I can see them picking up a few points this season though.
Alfa had the rubbish hobbled Ferrari engine last year. They now have the updated 'no longer the naughty boys' engine for this season. Think FIA have given them their fuel back! 🤣
I don’t know about anyone else but I’ll chuck a fiver in the hat to bribe the Alpine pit wall to send the radio message “Esteban is faster than you”.
Cruel. But sometimes cruelty is funny.
Go Lando!
The morning times were on a very hot track, I was expecting to see a change in the afternoon pecking order, but I am cautiously optimistic that McLaren have an absolute belter on their hands for the first time in a decade.
There's plenty of speculation that Mclaren have done a "Braun" and come up with a rear diffuser concept different to everyone else within the new aero regs
Vettel and Alonso must surely be disappointed with that!