My primary was by a railway track. We were forever being told if the dangers. Then the police came and told us that we had to stay away as detonators had been found on the track, even showed us pictures so we’d know to stay away. Must have been 100 kids on the tracks at lunchtime, with a half dozen staff trying to herd us off.
Those detonators were great! We had a box of them. I remember a summer spent placing them on a big stone in the river then throwing bricks at them from atop a bridge. Instant soaking. Plus they had little lead legs so you could attach them to things and pick them off with an air rifle. Ahh childhood...
Regarding those public information films, it’s a shame they’ve gone out of fashion.
I heard that the only way to keep kids, etc off train lines and building sites is to scare them rigid.
We need competitions to reward those who create adverts that are terrifyingly efficacious.
“And this years Silver Shamrock award for daytime horror goes to…”
No, I speculated that the weather forecast may have been wrong, which it often is. In this case it was spot on. I’ll take that my guess was inaccurate
So according to you when a forecast is inaccurate it is "wrong" but when you are inaccurate it doesn't mean that you were wrong at all. How convenient.
The truth is that you were wrong, both with respect to how hot it would get (ie record breaking) and the non-routine disruption that it would cause.
But you don't have the good grace to admit it, or even resort to the tactic that probably most would use - avoid talking about it.
And btw you are also wrong about wildfires - there were apparently two in Croydon yesterday, no one expects wildfires to be a routine part of a hot summer's day in Croydon.
BBC: London Fire Brigade had busiest day since World War Two, says London mayor.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62232654
"Yesterday was the busiest day for the fire service in London since the Second World War.
"Normally we get 350 calls a day, on a busy day we can get up to 500 calls. Yesterday the fire service had more than 2,600 calls a day."
seems apt...
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improving the insulation in our homes would help with both.
Yeah but that would involve admitting that the folk who glued themselves to roads were actually right.
Shouldn't that dog be in a caravan?
Yeah but that would involve admitting that the folk who glued themselves to roads were actually right.
Oh yeah they can't be right because they got in the way of cars.
I moved into a recently extended Victorian semi about 6 months ago from a new build flat and due to the extreme difference in temperature (old place stayed at 21 degrees without using the heating, this place certainly does not!) one of my first thoughts was to improve the insulation so had it done a month or so ago. I was pleased with myself for my winter preparations, but even more pertinent now.
Of course I'm fortunate in that I was able to pay for it. Ridiculous that we have things like winter fuel payments but can't sort ourselves out to help with the cause and not just some of the symptoms.
Yeah but that would involve admitting that the folk who glued themselves to roads were actually right.
They are right. Just a bonkers approach to changing people's behaviour.
That's a good point actually... Rather than doing annual winter fuel payments surely it would be cheaper in the long run just to give qualifying people a one off insulation voucher or something at a higher amount obvs. But once it's done that house is then done.
Or possibly alongside a much reduced winter fuel allowance.
They are right. Just a bonkers approach to changing people’s behaviour.
Their approach simply doesn't work yet they won't change it. A bit like the people who they want to change not changing what they are doing...
And btw you are also wrong about wildfires – there were apparently two in Croydon yesterday, no one expects wildfires to be a routine part of a hot summer’s day in Croydon.
He’s wrong but then nobody with any sense would take him seriously, the person to listen to and take seriously is this fireman:
https://twitter.com/WYFRSDaveWalton/status/1549497851100684289?s=20&t=ggxSvwu4pNT9GOLd6tvNGA
What that Fireman says is profoundly true and needs to be shared widely...
Rather than doing annual winter fuel payments surely it would be cheaper in the long run just to give qualifying people a one off insulation voucher or something
The problem with vouchers is that only some companies sign up to the schemes and these businesses are often not the most reputable and do shit jobs. And they also charge the voucher amount + a premium so the resident ends up paying almost as much as going to a reputable supplier directly and get a shit job into the bargain. I am not saying that is *always* the case but it happens a lot.
Could the responsibility be devolved to local councils who get the funding to employ a team to do the work with much more direct accountability? I know councils aren't always squeaky-clean but I am sure that, on the whole, they would be a better bet than some bunch of randoms turning up in a 15 yr old Transit to do minimum work for maximum profit?
our local population of about 20 house sparrows have vanished 😕
Has all the local fruit been thrown from the trees?
It’s funny, I can remember a nice, long, hot summer, that followed a particularly dry winter, where reservoirs were dangerously low, heat was causing all sorts of infrastructure issues, there were wildfires all over the place as well. But I don’t recall the sneering, point-scoring attitude then that seems to be prevalent now. The government even had a Minister for Water, the situation was getting so bad, they seemed to be taking the situation seriously, instead of saying things like “in the 70’s, we didn’t need all this”; which, oddly enough, is EXACTLY WHEN IT HAPPENED! 🤬
Denis Howell; 1976.
And within days of Dennis Howell being made Minister of Drought the weather mysteriously changed and Britian experienced torrential rain.
They were proper politicians back then that took their jobs seriously.
No, I speculated that the weather forecast may have been wrong, which it often is. In this case it was spot on. I’ll take that my guess was inaccurate
Lounging around in the sun and drinking beer probably means you’re just not bothering to pay attention.
As my job for the last four years, up until March, involved me spending a ten hour day out of doors, I developed a particularly keen interest in the weather, and the weather apps I use, MeteoGroup’s WeatherProHD and Dark Skies are remarkably accurate, especially when there’s a radar update showing exactly what’s going on on an hour by hour basis.
But it’s always wrong, though, isn’t it. #rollseyes
That tweet from the fireman is a sobering read.
Thanks for sharing ElShalimo. Interesting to see mention of adaptation at the end. People get hung up on climate change mitigation - of course because we all want to take action. The fact is climate change is happening and it's awkward, expensive and annoying. We have to adapt.
I heard talk on Radio 4 a month or so back about the need to start adapting more to coastal hazards and couldn't believe this work hadn't begun in earnest a long time ago. I worked on a national pilot programme for coastal hazard adaptation nearly 10 years ago and it's an absolute shit fight due to the sensitivities of land use and landowners. My wife is working with councils now to develop adaptation strategies. It's another area of life that politics is inevitably going to make a mess off... but there's a lot to do so we better get a move on.
An interesting point I read in a paper was that a 40deg C temp in the UK had a 1 in a 1000 return period without anthropogenic forcing (man made emissions) but only 1 in a 100 when you add that element to the climatology modelling. This was also based on a slightly out of date base/reference level so the more likely return period is a bit lower than 1 in a 100.
Yeah but that would involve admitting that the folk who glued themselves to roads were actually right.
They are right. Just a bonkers approach to changing people’s behaviour.
I suspect it's probably entirely counter productive, it pisses off a load of people who then hate / want to spite the protestors by not making any changes etc.
Of course I’m fortunate in that I was able to pay for it. Ridiculous that we have things like winter fuel payments but can’t sort ourselves out to help with the cause and not just some of the symptoms.
The problem with vouchers is that only some companies sign up to the schemes and these businesses are often not the most reputable and do shit jobs. And they also charge the voucher amount + a premium so the resident ends up paying almost as much as going to a reputable supplier directly and get a shit job into the bargain. I am not saying that is *always* the case but it happens a lot.
They do, we qualified for cavity wall insulation, it felt a little tenuous but we weren't going to turn down free stuff.
The criteria was pretty much are you working age and 100% healthy, if not it's free.
Work was done by one of the big facilities/outsourcing companies council get to do all their housing work. Think it was insta-group. They came in transit van with a big shredder/blower machine and a pallet load of compressed glass/plastic fluff bales.
The only quirk of the system is you couldn't book via the council, the system was 100% outsourced because that's how the grants worked. The council can't insulate your private house, just give you a phone number to call to the company that will do it and claim the voucher on your behalf.
10/10 would recommend it to anyone if you get a flyer through the door offering it.
I suspect it’s probably entirely counter productive, it pisses off a load of people who then hate / want to spite the protestors by not making any changes etc.
I'm not sure, you'd have to be certifiably mad to not insulate your house with energy prices as they are. It used to be ~5 years to pay for cavity wall insulation, well if prices have/will treble before this winter that's more like 18months.
But then again, this was people voluntarily commuting on the M25 🤷♂️
I suspect it’s probably entirely counter productive, it pisses off a load of people who then hate / want to spite the protestors by not making any changes etc.
It might be, who knows, but the alternative of sending a strongly worded letter to The Times wasn't working so well, and this got the issue in the papers at least.
I suspect it’s probably entirely counter productive, it pisses off a load of people who then hate / want to spite the protestors by not making any changes etc.
Just goes to show how passively accept when smoke from a grass/forest fire blocks a motorway and they have to sit in 40º heat for an hour.
it seems that having peoples homes burn down is the only surefire way of making them take notice of climate change.
I’ve come home from a hotel stay to find out Mrs K has left all the windows closed while I’ve been away and it’s still 27.5 degrees inside our house. 🙁
Keeping the windows and curtains closed on the exposed or south side of your house during the day and then opening them when the temp drops in the evening is probably the best approach.
By the way, with wild fires the embers can travel a very long way so can jump across firebreaks.
They're very scary.
Any ideas on how to convince my Dad to have their cavity walls insulated. They live in a 1930s semi and my Dad is convinced that if they have the cavity walls insulated the insulation will catch on the wall ties which will then make a bridge between the outer and inner wall causing damp. It's taken my Mum about 10 years to convince him to get rid of the open coal fire and we've been trying to convince him to do the walls for longer than that. Any ideas?
Any ideas?
Glue yourself to his drive until he agrees?
Tell him he'll be dead a long time before any potential damp issues surface
Any ideas
This seems to suggest it depends... but can usually be done?
https://www.twistfix.co.uk/cavity-insulation-wall-ties
There is a school of thought that cavity insulation can exacerbate the tie corrosion process if it becomes damp or wet. The insulation may become wet through rainwater ingress at vulnerable openings or by driving rain being absorbed through the wall itself. Indeed for this reason, building control does not recommend retrofit cavity insulation where a wall is exposed to driving rain and the cavity is less than 75mm wide.
Got to be at least worth getting the walls surveyed, even if only to check the pointing and wall tie condition, as that can cause damp by itself anyway in in disrepair.
Have to say Tuesday was horrible! I’m a bus/coach cleaner in a yard with no shade. I refused to clean upstairs on double deckers. The official temperature was 39 degrees in Leighton Buzzard, but the thermometer i had in the yard said it was over 50 from lunchtime and peaked at 52. I was so hot i stopped sweating even though i went though over a litre of High5 electrolytes an hour. On Wednesday i went home ill after a couple of hours as i realised i had pretty bad heat exhaustion with a raised temperature of 40 according to a medical grade ear thermometer. If I hadn’t gone home at 3.30 on Tuesday that probably would have progressed to full on heatstroke. Still not feeling great now.
Any ideas on how to convince my Dad to have their cavity walls insulated. They live in a 1930s semi and my Dad is convinced that if they have the cavity walls insulated the insulation will catch on the wall ties which will then make a bridge between the outer and inner wall causing damp. It’s taken my Mum about 10 years to convince him to get rid of the open coal fire and we’ve been trying to convince him to do the walls for longer than that. Any ideas?
We've just had ours done earlier this spring, as part of the process they did a survey with a borescope. They did leave some recommendations along the lines of future windows should have trickle vents, etc to replace any breathability lost. The insulation is hydrophobic though so shouldn't get wet.
Depends where you live though, it's not recommended for exposed westerly walls.
As mentioned on the other thread, not doing it at the moment is daft. The payback time is <2 years, and he'll probably qualify to have it done free anyway.
The longer range forecast models are getting more accurate
https://twitter.com/davethroup/status/1549453062120562688?s=21&t=iYW8PhmRPWb6vFqu58cKKA
https://twitter.com/khaustein/status/1549495973939920897?s=21&t=iYW8PhmRPWb6vFqu58cKKA
Models predicting another heatwave soon
https://twitter.com/simonleewx/status/1550226960101548033?s=21&t=iYW8PhmRPWb6vFqu58cKKA
The 7day forecasts were so accurate due to the blocking large high pressure hence the uncertainty was radically reduced in the calcs.
There is much more uncertainty about next months' GFES forecast. Don't forget that ensemble models are just that, they are a collection of different models with varying weight factors assigned to individual contributions. Some of the members of the ensemble will be extreme views but the ensemble is chosen to get a more balanced distribution/perspective. You can select one of the extreme ensemble members and make it appear like it's representative of all and then portray that as the forecast. We might get 40C next month, we might not
Interesting visualisation of the temperature increase of the last 150 years
https://twitter.com/i/status/1549009663378788355
Proof, if needed, that these ‘wildfires’ are caused by wilful human stupidity and negligence, and those responsible should be tracked down and fined heavily to try to pay for the damage they’ve caused, and the effort that emergency teams have had to put in unnecessarily to try to control the fires. 🤬
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-62277575
We had a warning here in China about thawing Arctic glaciers and potentially failing dams.
I live in the SW, but I hope they don't build estates in the potentially affected areas like they do here. I have been above a number of dams locally and seen entire communities/villages in front of the dams if they fail, and larger, more modern communities further down the valleys.
I have been above a number of dams locally and seen entire communities/villages in front of the dams if they fail, and larger, more modern communities further down the valleys.
Crikey. Still not learning?
around 5 million homes lost
anything up to quarter million deaths
the dam was designed to survive a once-in-1000-years flood (300 mm of rainfall per day) but a once-in-2000-years flood occurred
Another wildfire, human attribution. 🙄
I was out on the gravel bike on Tuesday night (it was still 28 degrees even at 9pm!) and rode up along the back road from Hope to Yorkshire Bridge and encountered the full response to that fire. Narrow road, difficult and steep trails to get up to the summit. It was still burning the next day and they had to get a helicopter in to drop water on it. It wasn't a raging fire but it was burning steadily.
And then I got to the far end of the res and there was a group of about 6 lads with a barbecue - it was actually a proper "off the ground" one and it was on a gravel turning circle far away from the bushes but even so. They were literally line of sight to a wildfire and they're there frying up burgers. 🙄
Return Periods (1 in 100 years flood ,1 in 2000years rainfall event) are I think best understood as estimated measurements of magnitudes of unusual events.. not of the frequencies of those events. In any case with many if not most weather events they are now effectively irrelevant - as they are based on statistical tests of past events that took place in a climate that we just don't have any more.
I don't think anyone should be using or quoting return periods to media/public these days.
@gwaelod - I partially agree.
They need more explanation as a statistical tool but some new models are climate conditioned by time horizon and RCP scenario. Therefore some of them can present hypothetical RPs given a future climatic state. They will show you that a 2015 1-in-100yr event could be a 1-in-75 year event in 2035 under RCP4.5 etc. etc.
They have their uses but as it is so complicated it's hard to be concise and explain to a lay person what it all means. Climate Change and its impacts, be that physical or transition risks, are just like Covid in that we really need good scientific communicators to step up and explain it in a way that we at least feel we understand it.
Time for a USA style system of fire bans in some areas drought conditions?
Looks like it was penned by the Propane And Propane Accessories Marketing Board, IMO
Two interesting articles on the BBC today.
First one about the weather presenters being abused by morons (very similar to the idiotic STR comments)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62323048
Second one about how 40°C is due to manmade climate change
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-62335975
depressing.... we're heading straight back to 'we've all had enough of experts' territory.
Next step. Because of the warnings given and people being sensible, we will not see the numbers of excess deaths that worst case scenario predictions cautioned against. Which will be used as 'evidence' that we overreacted.
Good to know Spain's PM is being constructive - he's suggested that men should stop wearing ties during the heatwave over there to...save energy!
He thinks this will reduce demand on AC units and so lower electricity usage.
Yep, you read that correctly.
depressing…. we’re heading straight back to ‘we’ve all had enough of experts’ territory.
One of the comments in the above link claims this is another "fake emergency" by the nanny state to "tell us what to do".
Whilst it is clearly an idiotic comment it is also a very prevalent one, for that I hold governments and politicians hugely responsible.
All these comments and attitudes have their roots in the campaigns over decades by the fossil fuel companies.
Politicians have comprehensively failed (apart from a few lefty politicians who are dismissed by the media) to point out to the wider public that maximum profits was/is the driving motive to the fossil fuel companies disinformation campaigns.
We live in a society where maximizing profits (with little concern of the human costs that this might entail) is celebrated, so it is much harder for a counterattack from that angle.
But really what would have stopped the fossil fuel companies disinformation campaigns in their tracks would have been nationalisation. Ultimately responsible to the people they would not have had the motivation to mount campaigns against the common good of society.
Society's energy needs in private hands makes no sense imo, the idea that such a vital industry can operate both in the interests of the producers and the consumers is illogical, there is always going to be conflict of interest.
ernie, I suggest you read about the Global Climate Coalition and E Bruce Harrison - unless you already know about their activities.
3 years ago I was at an Australia Infrastructure briefing and they said then that they'd changed their profile for design from 1 in 100 years to 1 in 7 years. So from a 1% chance of a stated event to a 14% chance - it's a significant hike in the risk profile and one that I suspect will begin to be adopted in other countries.
I'm currently doing a lot of work in Singapore and their design requirements for things like crest levels and water run off especially things like gutters being banned due to the massive rise in Dengue Fever are quite eye opening for a Brit.
and those responsible should be tracked down and fined heavily to try to pay for the damage they’ve caused, and the effort that emergency teams have had to put in unnecessarily to try to control the fires.
Guy here (Sweden) got caught 3 or 4 years ago.
Fined about £175-200000 IIRC.
They also dish out fines for starting fires when there is a ban in place. Starts at about £1800-2000.
Grim indeed.
Time for a USA style system of fire bans in some areas drought conditions?
Standard practice in Australia. And the ban periods seem to be increasing (unsurprisingly).
We also have fire condition indicators on the side of roads. They've added a level 'catastrophic' since the big fires in 2019/20 (i think that's when they did it)
I have an app that alerts me to fires within set radii of my home and workplace so I can keep an eye on things when the conditions are of concern. There are regular hazard reduction burns and a certain amount of ecological 'patchwork' burning goes on to maintain the environment. But sometimes things go tits up and they get out of control.
I'm lying in bed in the middle of incest Country Suffolk sweating my mammaries off.
Locals saying that they can't remember the last time it rained. Well, we had a few drops today but not enough to wet the ground.
They said that some of the fires are started by tractors/combines hitting a piece of flint.
When was the last time it rained?
Crazy.
There was some rain over the last few days round South Wales but nowhere near enough to do anything more than create a few small puddles. It all evaporated within minutes of stopping and everything is still bone dry so no change on fire risk or ground water levels. This weekend is meant to be a roaster too so I very much doubt the plants are going to stop turning yellow any time soon, even the trees are dropping their leaves like it's autumn!
But everyone will be pouring on to the beaches and burning themselves so it's all good, just a brilliant summer.
It's the opposite to last summer round here. Last year it rained so much that some local woods were in muddier in August than a very wet winter. Loving this summer so far for riding.
We're in North Wales, it's cold and has rained a fair bit. This happened during the last big heatwave too, we managed to seek out one of the few places in the UK that was cold and wet.
they’d changed their profile for design from 1 in 100 years to 1 in 7 years. So from a 1% chance of a stated event to a 14% chance – it’s a significant hike in the risk profile
That doesn't sound right. Infrastructure design is based on the statistical return period of the design events; a 1 in 7 year event is less severe than a 1 in 100 event. What would be more likely is that the 1 in 100 year event the existing infrastructure was designed for is now happening 1 in 7 years. If they are changing the design event the should be going for longer return period, like 1 in 1000 years, but statistical prediction isn't really valid when the pattern is changing. It's better to stick with the 1 in 100 but add a margin, so if the 1 in 100 year temperature is 50ºC, add 5ºC and design for 55ºC.
even the trees are dropping their leaves like it’s autumn
Yeah was weird
Went for a ride last night at Woburn and lots of fallen leaves !
Piddled it down on Tuesday then it's raining again now, in Manchester.
Yep, seeing a lot of fallen leaves here in central England too.
Went for a ride a couple of days ago and nearly ended up taking an unplanned sit down in them - dry leaves on dusty trails do not make for grippy conditions!
depressing…. we’re heading straight back to ‘we’ve all had enough of experts’ territory.
Been a feature of political debate for a while now
Populism is telling people there are no hard choices, only cakeism
The number of seemingly intelligent people on the pro brexit/ COVID denying/antivax climate change denying axis seems to be growing
Truss has been using it in her leadership pitch to the membership - promising to block new solar farms & rip up the 'orthodoxy'
Holding the opposite view to the MSM & The experts is a badge of honour
correlation is not necessarily causation, but
https://news.sky.com/story/did-nearly-900-people-die-due-to-the-july-heatwave-12679711
Trees will drop their leaves as a stress response to drought conditions. It reduces transpiration.
Cardiff seems pretty cool to where I am in SE. Was at my folks yesterday on the bay and quite pleasant compared to home! Guess it’s a good time to be living by the sea.
Yeah, until that sea swamps you and your house and you have to find somewhere else to live and good luck with your climate-denying platitudes then.