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As Ireland isn’t in Shengen illegal immigrants won’t find it any easier than at present
Well, not really. If we leave the EU, simply by virtue of FoM ceasing it will be very easy to be an illegal immigrant.
Are people still believing stuff Moggy says?
Much like Johnson used to enjoy, his upper class credentials seem to satisfy his forelock tugging acolytes, but his bullshit is easily exposed with a bit of scrutiny & factchecking
Anyway.
I agree with these guys, tho id be less kind in my language
Are people still believing stuff Moggy says?
He has his audience same as the briefings for brexit lot. Problem is he gets airtime and has other mps agreeing with him.
How so, Zokes? Could you link something to tell me it'll be more complicated than needing a passport rather than an ID card. I'm interested because my passport is French and if I'm to be considered an illegal immigrant if I try to board a boat in Calais, I'd like to know on what basis.
Edit: I was hoping to be a "legal alien".
How so, Zokes? Could you link something to tell me it’ll be more complicated than needing a passport rather than an ID card. I’m interested because my passport is French and if I’m to be considered an illegal immigrant if I try to board a boat in Calais, I’d like to know on what basis.
Right now as an EU citizen you have rights to enter, remain, and work in the UK. If we leave, those rights might not continue at all, or might require a visa of some description. Same reason they don’t exist with many other places outside of the EU.
Clearly I can’t link to something as that would require the UK to actually have a policy in place.
I agree with al that, Zokes. What the conditions of entry will be remains to be seen. And for those already in the UK it's still as clear as mud with May desperately trying to appease both Barnier and the zealots. Have a look at the calculations of what potential current members of Shengen would lose in GDP if they reinstated borders, a lot. The UK already loses out, is a UK government prepared to apply a system that further restricts movement and futher cuts GDP? Does Britain want my cash or not? I suspect it does.
Briatain could have been applying current EU rules to limit EU immigration but it hasn't. I reckon the reason is that despite the posturing even the Tories realise EU miagration is good for business and after a short period of restricting movement reopen the flood gates.
pay the bills for Calais and elsewhere
Isn't international law that you seek asylum in the first safe state you reach?
Given that, harsh and crude [ and indeed unfair] ,its not really a UK issue its an EU issue.
Moggs position is interesting, I am sure deep down he wants to lead the Tory Party but not overly keen on being PM (bit like Corby) he has enough support in the Party to beat Boris etc as he is viewed internally as "clever" and a lot of his personal views are held by many Tory faithfull.
I think he is looking towards the medium term I.e. post brexit/labour elected world to then slide into leader of the opposition - this would suit his upper class/Latin ramblings perfectly.
The last question is he (like Corby) electable and this is a tougher question as his electorate are on the decline (unlike Corby) and if Labour swing the 16 to18 voting issue the Tories are going to struggle to win regardless.
@teeth the rebate is applied a year in arrears. £366m ler week is the gross figure quoted by ONS. Our contribution is variable and growing. I’ll wager you its more like £1.75bn per month by 2019. The EU is screwed without our money and its doing its best to hide the fact. If it dissapeared suddenly due to negotiations reaching a stalemate all hell would break out amongst the 27
@kelvin I have answered this before, you don't collect tariffs at the border. Customs guys don’t collect cheques. All done electronically in advance. Yes there are spot checks (I think on average its 5%) but they can be done away from the border, eg at point of delivery. Techno,ofy like number pkate recognition make all this quite straightforward. Think about it we no longer have tax discs as thats all electronic / number plate recognition.
@Northwind WTO is the globally agreed framework for all trade between members. Free trade agrements are registered with them. US and China are EU’s largest trading partners and both use WTO rules with the EU. As per the economic research I quoted it was the advent of the WTO which did more for UK growth than our EU membership.
Italian election polls suggest 5-star will be by far the largest individual party. Europe and the EU needs to get a grip on its fundamental problems or this is going to end very badly.
Dear Jamba,
Please don't bother to direct posts at me that don't address or relate to any point I've made.
Yours,
Everyone.
The EU is screwed without our money and its doing its best to hide the fact.
You keep saying this. Yet I'm confused because our input to the EU budget, as large as it is, is still relatively small as a proportion of the whole, and as others have said, Germany has already said it will step in to fill in any hole. Conversely, you keep diminishing the impact of a loss of between 30-50% of our trade (your numbers) which is currently within the EU, and suggesting that this is a (temporary) price worth paying.
So, do we contribute more than 30-60% of the EU budget, enough to the point where "all hell would break loose"? Or, will "all hell [also] break loose" in the UK if we exit the single market and lose 30-50% of our export market?
Europe and the EU needs to get a grip on its fundamental problems or this is going to end very badly.
And Brexit helps this how, exactly?
Isn’t international law that you seek asylum in the first safe state you reach?
Yes, and it's an unfair law that places an unfair burden on say Italy. The UK started the wars that destabilised a region but refuses to take its fair share of the people displaced by the continuing conflict.
France does more than it should to prevent immigrants getting to the UK IMO. Britain hasn't even honoured its promise to take 800 under-age migrants.
I can't see the UK government doing anything to stop Brits holidaying abroad. About 70% have passports. Most Europeans don't need a passport, just an ID card does the job within Europe. Impose a passport and at the margin you'll lose tourists as getting one will cost more than the flights and take time.
Again, from the ONS link
Before the UK government transfers any money to the EU a rebate is applied.
Before anybody calls the election results in Italy it would be important to point out that none of the parties campaigned to leave the EU - there are parties who campaigned for reform and economic changes to the EU. The main EU issue for Italy was migration and the burden that Italy shoulders on behalf of the EU - one which the UK hides from despite being at the forefront of some of the causes.
The UK started the wars that destabilised a region but refuses to take its fair share of the people displaced by the continuing conflict.
France does more than it should to prevent immigrants getting to the UK IMO
Point of order. Whilst the UK has been one of the main protagonists, it's far from the only agent here, with France being right up there, especially where Libya is concerned.
Jamba ,I still don’t know why we have to obey the WTO ?
A faceless foreign beauraracy telling me to put my prices up by 30% and probably putting 6 hard working British taxpayers out of a job.
Surely we can make our own deals?
True Zokes. What started as putting line in the sand to save an oil town on the coast and its population ended up with a power vacuum filled by fanatics. One of those damned if you do, damned if you don't situations. The major difference with Iraq being that there was already conflict in libya and the intervention was intended to stop it. In Iraq it was the gratuitous invasion of a country that had already been disarmed and was cooperating with weapons inspectors.
Critics of the libyan intervention sometimes forget that a civil war was already underway and major escalation was inevitable without intervention - an army was advancing across a desert to attack a town. Whether intervention helped or made the situation worse is up for debate. My persoanl view is that the west would have got drawn into the conflict sooner or later and on the military front the early intervention to keep the sides apart was productive. Less productive was the elimination of Kadafi which handed power to the religious fanatics. And there the Sarkosy-Kadhafi political funding and personal grudges had a role France needs to elucidate.
Techno,ofy like number pkate recognition make all this quite straightforward. Think about it we no longer have tax discs as thats all electronic / number plate recognition.
How's that working out then?
you don’t collect tariffs at the border
I never said that you collect tariffs at the border. I don't think anyone in this thread has.
Border infrastructure is required for checks and enforcement, not for collection.
Anyway Jamba, when will CDS fully replace CHIEF? Before April Fools Day next year? While you're waving you hands in the air about using digital submission more post Brexit, how about you have a look at what that actually means. An over 300% increase in submissions, and the adoption of EU codes once it is an external market, isn't supported by magical thinking. Now… design in any special measures for Ireland… when does that happen? When will they need to be in place?
Yep, both Swiss & Norway/EU & tested Canada/usa' all have infrastructure at the borders, despite various levels of 'technology' being employed.
May has even pledged no cctv at the NI border....
It's amazing how leaving the EU turns out to entail a shit load more red tape than our current setup.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Another Brexit lie exposed there</span>
Techno,ofy like number pkate recognition make all this quite straightforward.
So you are going to have cameras on every crossing point? That will have mysterious accidents when some of the more republican members of the community spots them.
Also to put it into perspective its reckoned there are the best part of a million cars without insurance in the UK despite all that magical technology.
Since the problem is unless you are going to equip those number plate detecting cameras with a 30mm cannon you will still need people there to enforce it.
Be easy enough to get a common car/van and when approaching the border accidentally cover the plates with mud.
[i]kimbers wrote:[/i]
I agree with these guys, tho id be less kind in my language
Though it's fundamentally missing the point: "But at this point a basic question becomes unavoidable: what on earth is she trying to achieve?" - it's obvious what her sole objective is - to remain as PM. Nothing else is at anywhere near as important to her, and in that context everything she's done makes perfectly logical sense.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43285318
I I mentioned in a previous post that THM dismissed as junk, companies are having to make choices on the viability of UK plants and systems now based on the progress of the talks as they stand.
Any changes will take at least a year to implement (for a large business) so April 2018 is the real deadline not April 2019. By the time May has decided what she wants it will already be too late...
I disagree, her priority is to keep the tories in power, her being PM is secondary to that (though currently necessary). So long as the debacle can be blamed on the EU - and we know that a large proportion of the population will lap up that story regardless of the facts - and that the bogeyman of a corbyn govt can be presented as an even bigger threat, it's all going just fine for them. What happens to the country doesn't really concern them.
The 2 above posts capture he Tory right view of the world, they benefit very little from Nissan Sunderland or any form of manufacturing.
They want unregulated financial markets and labour not well paid overseas jobs in car plants.
Moggenomics....
They do face some big obstacles to a new free trade world - keeping Farming alive, keeping Corby out of power, keeping the great unwashed employed, keeping the peace in NI...
The real sad thing is once the heavy and semi heavy industry leaves it won't come back.
It was always clear that other countries would try to woo these away along with so much more which was why the Gov had all that time preparing before issuing article 50.
They are not even making the best out of a bad situation. They do not have leadership, direction (or half the country behind them) so are being pushed around by all the players.
Anyone read anything recently that suggests that the USA isn't going to screw the UK once we are in our weaker position outside the EU?
And… WTO fans… any sign that any block other than the EU is offering support for our tariffs and schedules after Brexit? How reliant on EU backing will we be as regards WTO? Completely, or totally?
And it's not just trade in goods, is it…
Two excellent pieces from Brexit Central
Realities of a customs union
As I said EU are looking to try and leverage Ireland to prevent us freely signing global trade deals
If we are members of a customs union it will likely prevent Corbyn nationalising anything. You must have a competive tender for all “nationalisations”
http://brexitcentral.com/labour-unable-nationalise-rail-new-eu-rules/
[i]jambalaya wrote:[/i]
Two excellent pieces from Brexit Central
You do like your oxymorons 😆
@kelvin the EU is offering its support as its very much in their interests. If UK doesn’t share those tariff free allowances then they are stuck with products they don’t want. We can always negotiate our own new ones. We are trying to be helpful to the EU. I believe we take 75% of the New Zealand lamb.
Sorry Jamba, but you're deluded … "negotiate our own new ones" … with the backing of which block at the WTO? Only the EU stands with us on this and so many other issues… yes that is because it is in their interests as well … but who else will back us? USA? There is so much opportunity for all the other blocks to take advantage of the UK in your favoured "WTO rules" scenario. It really worries me that you, and others that share you position who can actually influence the Brexit process, don't understand the basics of all this.
No - you forgot that this is the thread where you provide unbiased sources to support your opinions if you want to be taken seriously.
I certainly shan't bother reading those, and I doubt anybody else here will - I read the first couple of links from there and it was clear that they're just as deluded as you.
I'm not a Corbyn fan, and partly that is because of he thinks our current agreements with EU countries limit our options as regards public ownership and how public services are provided… what is he expecting when the USA trade deal becomes real…?!? These "global deals" you speak of Jamba will have trade offs, just as any deal with rEU countries (whether as a member or a third country) does. We will be shifting some control from the rEU to national level… only then to have to cede it again (and maybe more) back to them, and to other large trading partners. "Taking control" of food and animal welfare standards, for example, will be oh so temporary, if we want trade deals with any of the larger countries and blocks.
Remainers thread ?
What is Brexit central then, neutral ? Lol
Ref the lamb - the exact opposite is true - 94% of lamb exports are to the EU - what will WE do with the surplus? We will have to stop importing from NZ and eat our own - that might be greener but it is hardly likely to make trade deals with NZ easier when we don`t want their lamb any more.
The Lamb situation is well known - don`t ever bring it up in some brexy dream.
Customs union membership means surrendering all control of our international trade policy
they missed out the bit where DExEUs own analysis reckons that all of the trade deals Fox wants added up equates to an extra 1% of GDP over 10 years! (not even coming close to making up for the loss of CU & SM membership)
are all brexitcentral pieces that bad; unsourced and lacking in any actual analyses or data?
No wonder the negotiations are going so badly if that guy is on the brexit select comittee!
obviously I forgot this is the Remainer thread
People have questioned the articles you have posted in the past. I havent seen you bother to defend them before throwing up the next lot. So they will tend to be ignored especially if you keep using the same shit source.
To take the customs union one. Lots of handwaving and claims without any solid evidence. The normal magic use of "technology". Then his idea of "no physical border". So that will sort out the Calais issue for France.
For the love of god tell me why the WTO is a good thing when it will put prices up in the shops and hard working brItish taxpayers out of jobs.
Brexit is not about answers...
The reason leavers avoid facts is they don't back up their claims. So yes brexit central and briefings for brexit get as much of a look as long lost relatives with Nigerian inheritance and the latest red hot lady who wants to talk to only me emails.
Guardian reports May as saying the govt is "looking closely at" the USA-Canada border as a model for the Irish problem.
Wonder how closely she'll have to look before they see any problems...
