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Chris yes here in France ahead of skiing trip. Will look for the programme thanks, should be on catch up I hope. Ash/Ride Sospel published their routes and we are looking at a trip to Nice & Sospel in June.
If the five tests aren’t met by any deal then we go WTO and add things like airtravel seperately, as Merkel said in Munich we need to work on that contingency together.
TJ its funny how with Brexit you see only problems yet with an independent Scotland it was only opportunities (never mind your massive budget deficit) and of course no bother at all re negotiations with the UK.
The Irish border is being used as a political football by the EU just like they did with citizens rights (we wanted to sort that immediately after the referendum and they refused). The EU must surely realise they F’d up when the pro-EU groups in UK critised their text. The (drunk at 1am?) Tweet from Barniers advisor criticising pro-EU groups shows how they’be misjudged it badly.
Just because we have no formal border with Republic of Ireland doesn’t mean we don’t collect any tariffs. All done electronically in advance with spot checks etc. Ditto people, no border required. Police / immigation / trading officials can check people’s details anywhere for things like employment and visa status. Ireland is outside Schengen and any “flood” of asylum seekrs can be dealt with easily via Geneva Convention if they pass through the Republic as that’s a safe country and they should claim there. We can (and will) deport them back there.
kimbers the cost of border tech is small in comparison to the advatanges of divergent regulation and global free trade deals. As oer the paper the author thinks it should be rolled out to all of the EU’s external borders.
The EU is a very bad postion, losing its second largest contributor who will sign new deals leading to further falls in trade with us. We will be buying things cheaper elsewhere. Our exports to EU have fallen from 55 to 45% these past 10 years, strip out the Rotterdamn effect and the real figure is more like 35-40%. A UK outside the EU will have the flexibility and fleet footedness to react and adapt. The EU is a centralised behemoth which is slow, inefficient and self centered. The EU is well aware we will prosper, its desperate to try and tie us in. We will succeed handsomely as an independent nation and they know it and they know others in the EU27 will see it.
reports jimjam for being a traitor – would have done the same were it an option open to me.
I’d be gone in a shot if I had somewhere to go. ROI would be high on the list.
The state machinery of Ireland, especially in a remote rural area, feels like an old car who's engine has developed a serious knock. You know it's going to have a catastrophic terminal failure at some point in the near future, you're just not sure when. Saying that, it's hard not to admire it's resilience as it just keeps on trucking. I now live so close to the border I can see it, and both my wife and I are cross border workers. If Brexit results in any kind of border it'll create a shit storm here.
Mixed emotions.
@perditus up to you of course but remember France, Germany, Holland and Italy have larger portions of their populations voting for FN, AfD , Freedom Party or 5-star than the UK ever had for UKIP. Much higher, more like double. That’s before we talk about Austria and Hungary. You could of course go to Oz like @mikesmith, a country with a very highly controlled immigation system and one which even with a points based visa doesn’t allow you to work wherever you want in the country (for first5? years anyway)
Republic has a massive exposure to Brexit, highest of any EU country. Since 2008 they have had a lot of emigration as people look for better (any) work opportunities. A positive Brexit will be good for them (less damaging, I can only see beef and dairy exports to UK falling under all scenarios)
The state machinery of Ireland, especially in a remote rural area, feels like an old car who’s engine has developed a serious knock.
Spent any time in the Welsh valleys?
Jamba who is the "we" in we go WTO does that include my mate Bob from Hartlepool? He drives a fork lift and doesn't like foreigners, but likes being unemployed less...
Practicalities Jamba that's the key to ecomomic success not platitudes.
Rafael Behr sums up the reality of Mays position in todays Guardian. They know that she can says what she likes today. She's not the one calling the shots. The headbangers are. I've bolded up the most important bit. The bit that all these lunatics lust after, and fully intend to implement at all costs. The working class is about to be bent over, and this lot are going in dry
The patterns of recent Tory history are familiar to May’s counterparts in the Brexit talks. They probably have a clearer-sighted understanding of them than she does. This matters because May’s pitch to the EU is that she can be trusted to uphold the values of the European project even while quitting its institutions. She offers “deep and special partnership” on matters of security and economic cooperation. She rejects the suggestion that Britain seeks to undercut its continental neighbours by dropping labour standards and environmental protections. She promises a post-Brexit partnership “based on high standards”. So May invites her EU counterparts to be generous and cooperative on the basis that she is an ally – aligned and equivalent in values if not exactly identical in regulations.
But even if the rest of the EU accept that May is sincere, they know she is weak. They know there is a section of the Tory party that is implacably hostile to the European project. That faction saw a regulatory bonfire as Brexit’s primary purpose. Some fantasised about a great unravelling of the union as a happy side-effect. That hostility is not a secret and the EU cannot ignore it. They have followed British history enough to know which side tends to win tugs of war between Tory leaders and Eurosceptic backbenchers. They knew where power lies in that party.
Republic has a massive exposure to Brexit, highest of any EU country.
Yes, "we" are utterly shafting them, and than acting surprised that they aren't impressed with our behaviour.
The thing is what happens when theres no scapegoats left to blame, and people see who’s fault it really is?
There is always some scapegoats to blame. Hence why the rabid right have been warming up on the whole enemy of the people, betrayers etc to get ready for the stab in the back myth.
Plus of course the elites will skip to another country and leave the destruction behind after making some cash out of it and, after all, there will still be plenty of cash to be made from the mess.
The EU is a very bad postion, losing its second largest contributor who will sign new deals leading to further falls in trade with us.
How many countries do we currently have trade agreements with, as members of the EU? Now… pick any country outside the EU, any one, you pick, pick a nice big strong one… now, how many countries does that country have trade agreements with?
Now, have a long think about that.
Republic has a massive exposure to Brexit, highest of any EU country
its definitely us with the highest exposure risk if there is massive what is ours supermegamassive? Nope its a brigth and wonderful future isnt it rolly eyes*
Again your ability to see others problems, who are smaller than ours, whilst seeing ours as opportunities is a joy to watch. If we could bottle Brexit optimism for sale then we surely would thrive post Brexit.
* anyone know how to insert them easily?
Jamba
Bag o crisps Brexit innit<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> </span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">DEXEUs own calculations reckon all of Fox's trade deals added together amount to less than 1% GDP over 10 years (easily swamped by 5-8% loss thanks to May's hard-wto Brexit)</span>
So no, there will be no extra cash for border tech, when it's in place in 5-10 years time, being optimistic.
And every example linked to so far requires significant infrastructure at border
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> + no</span><span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> border in NI under WTO rules would mean no border anywhere under favoured nation rules?</span>
May's 5 tests are laughable.
It's been 20 months, UK have been on back foot from day 1
And we still have no plan, Brexiters have produced no detail, just internal squabling, cabinet, Tory party, government & country still completely divided over Brexshit
If that's an example of UKs fleetfootedness & flexibility then we are definitely doomed !
Chris English speaking schools will be a massive factor for people looking to move I have some friends if friends who started 2 here in Paris. It has been a long bureaucratic nightmare. My niece goes to one. French state resistive as it thinks they are for the privileged. They will have to do a 180 switch and oit state money into it. Unlikely me thinks. The exiting schools are already full with waiting lists. People won’t come unless they can get school places. Even longer waiting lists is not a draw.
Jamba I have no doubt you are well educated and probably worked very hard to get where you are but you are looking at this from completely the wrong end, you do not solve the problem of a starving (metaphorical) nation by giving the well fed more food to stick in the larder.
The working poor have voted "jam for the rich" and one day as pointed out by Binners and others it will dawn on them.
border in NI under WTO rules would mean no border anywhere under favoured nation rules[FNR]?
who wrote that ? FNR means whatever tarrif you charge to this nation you need to charge to all, Its says nothing at all about borders.
A WTO based EU/UK relationship would result in the UK leaving the customs union. Firms trading with the EU from outside of the customs union are subject to customs checks. This could be particularly problematic for Northern Ireland, as the region shares a land border with the EU and around 37% of our exports cross that border to enter the RoI. Although the UK Government has stated that it wishes to ‘retain free and frictionless’ trade across the Irish land border and that it is seeking to develop a ‘mutually beneficial new customs agreement with the EU’, in the absence of an agreement between the UK and the EU it is unclear how realisable either of these outcomes would be
from NI assembly paper
WTO rules does not lead to the ending of borders or there being no tariffs at the border. Whist we could have free trade in if we chose we cannot have it out
More facts here
Republic has a massive exposure to Brexit, highest of any EU country. Since 2008 they have had a lot of emigration as people look for better (any) work opportunities. A positive Brexit will be good for them (less damaging, I can only see beef and dairy exports to UK falling under all scenarios)
Emigration from Ireland has been a fact of life for generations so I don't see what brexit has to do with it- the young people I know went to Australia and Canada or is it post brexit our economy will be so screwed no one will come here? I've no idea about the beef and dairy trade I presume you haven't either on past record.
If the five tests aren’t met by any deal then we go WTO
Then what? You've still not answered repeated questions on which other countries trade solely on WTO terms with no FTAs in place
and add things like airtravel seperately
How long will that take? Where would arbitration fall for infractions? Who would regulate?
TJ its funny how with Brexit you see only problems yet with an independent Scotland it was only opportunities (never mind your massive budget deficit) and of course no bother at all re negotiations with the UK.
IIRC, Scotland wished to remain part of the EU, and as rUK was also in the EU at the time, trade with its two biggest export markets would have been unaffected. Not quite the same with Brexit, is it? And how's Westminster's deficit going?
The Irish border is being used as a political football by the EU
No, it's quite simple logic. GFA states there must be freedom of movement between ROI and NI. Brexit without customs agreements means that there can't be FOM across the border. It's blindingly simple.
Just because we have no formal border with Republic of Ireland doesn’t mean we don’t collect any tariffs. All done electronically in advance
Ah, unicorns again.
Police / immigation / trading officials can check people’s details anywhere
Sure. Remind me again why it is the RUC tended to drive around in armoured vehicles.
any “flood” of asylum seekrs can be dealt with easily.... ....We can (and will) deport them back there.
You and whose army?
the cost of border tech is small
Given such border tech doesn't yet exist, I doubt it. And given that it must consist of at least some hardware on the border, what happens when the PIRA decide to remove it at night time?
We will be buying things cheaper elsewhere
You say this. But what are we going to be buying cheaper elsewhere? Where are the trade deals that would make these things cheaper? We're playing with an open hand here - every country will know we want a deal at almost any cost. Not exactly a strong bargaining position.
Our exports to EU have fallen from 55 to 45% these past 10 years, strip out the Rotterdamn effect and the real figure is more like 35-40%
So best case scenario, we lose a third of our export market. What planet are you on to even think that might be OK? Have you seen what happens to exports when the pound rises a couple of cents?
A UK outside the EU will have the flexibility and fleet footedness to react and adapt.
Given leave didn't even have the ability to adapt to a win some had hoped for for nearly 40 years, forgive my scepticism. FFS Jamby, the UK can't even ****ing react to a bit of snow forecast over a week in advance.
The EU is well aware we will prosper, its desperate to try and tie us in. We will succeed handsomely as an independent nation and they know it and they know others in the EU27 will see it.
I have seen some ****ing delusional shit in my time, but that's really up there with the best. So your argument is basically boiling down to blind loyalty and faith in a country so crap you don't even choose to live in it yourself.
More pathetic twaddle from the Maybot. Can we have some details please? Well of course not, there aren't any.
"TJ its funny how with Brexit you see only problems yet with an independent Scotland it was only opportunities"
it's funny that you can't see how many parallels there are between the two situations.
On the plus side its not like anyone is declaring how easy trade wars are to win.
oh bugger.
. What planet are you
Planet optimism the place reality cannot reach*
* trading under WTO rules
So, May basically reminding us that she has no clear plan, accept that "we" will require a "time limited" period to prepare for it. Who needs reminding? A year to go before we leave, and not only aren't we prepared for whatever we are replacing membership with, our government still can't outline what that is… even in the most loose of forms, never mind with the detail needed for "us" to prepare for it. Prepare for an utter balls up in a year… hope that in reality it is spread over the next three years… spread the pain… that's as close to a plan as we're going to get for now.
Given such border tech doesn’t yet exist, I doubt it. And given that it must consist of at least some hardware on the border, what happens when the PIRA decide to remove it at night time?
It's not even that. The nature of life on the border is such that almost everyone (no hyperbole) is involved in something "illegal" at some level. Virtually every house on the ROI side of the border has a northern car to avail of cheaper car tax (registered in someone else's name) and virtually everyone on the NI side of the border comes across to get cheaper fuel which they "smuggle" back into the UK and the farmers on both sides seem to be running a million scams. When you consider that many border crossing look like this
you get an idea why it it'll be hard to implement, never mind protect when every local will want to destroy it. The PSNI don't really venture anywhere near the border as you need serious local knowledge to know what side you are on at any given time so they won't be protecting any ANPR cameras either.
So you need to close these roads and install military checkpoints on main roads or everyone will just use back roads, obscure their plates or vandalise the cameras.
Kelvin, you assume that the transition is a done deal. As the Tories have already rolled back on what they said in December is there actually any guarantee that we won't crash out in March next year.
STOP PRESS
"We are leaving the single market, life is going to be different"
Access to each others markets would be "less than it is now," she acknowledged.
She added that the "jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK must end".
So to summarise:
We're ****ed! You know it! We know it! But I'm unbelievably weak and having my policy dictated to me by a bunch of absolute headbangers, so what can we do? Will of the people and all that....
Jamba - how are we going to know if these refugees etc pass thru the NI border without hard border checks
Scottish independence would not have been without its issues although nothing like as bad as thought. I wanted independence so we could have a progressive government of the green / left and never have a tory government again.
100% wrong on citizens rights. Its the UK that have dragged their feet. EU offered a deal immediately and even Mays revised deal is never gong to be acceptable
I love how she pointedly fails to state whether she thinks Brexit is worth the effort when asked by the German journalist.
That's me put of a job then.
Is this a done deal or does it have to get voted on?
just look at the people who are fanatical brexiteers – Rees Mogg? Ian Duncan Smith? John Redwood? Bill Cash? Boris Johnson? Nigel Farage?
FFS! The very idea that these people want anything other than a deregulated, tax haven race to the bottom, to line their own pockets and totally **** over the working classes is utterly ridiculous.
How about the people who were fanatically opposed to Joining the EEC in the first place? Gaitskell, Benn, Castle, Foot... rotters the lot of them, clearly.
How about the people who were fanatically opposed to Joining the EEC in the first place? Gaitskell, Benn, Castle, Foot… rotters the lot of them, clearly.
and Enoch Powell....
classy company i am sure you will agree.
Kelvin, you assume that the transition is a done deal
Not me. Hence saying we should plan for the shit to hit the fan a year from now, but hope a transition period means the shit is smeared more evenly over the next three years. I just pointed out that May was reminding us "we" need a transition period… we're not ready to Leave… her and her government need to have made some key decisions way back in the past… not some way into the future. We all know why the decision making is being kicked closer and closer to the Leave date…
Transition is now looking very unlikely. without a deal on NI or citizens rights there will be no transition and unless May moves a long long way there will be no deal onthese two things
Looks like a bit of Tory infighting. Suspected 5th column work by Scottish Tories to sabotage Brexit.
http://www.bowgroup.org/policy/bow-group-calls-david-mundells-resignation
Without a transition period (of far more than 2 years) we're either in a very, very bad place, or the government has to follow Labour's current policy on a Custom's Union…
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/969581204893851651
Im in the Welsh Valleys so the ROI would be great. Jambalya, I have an Oz passport but would be the last place on earth i'd want to go.
Mays offer on citizens rights will never fly with the EU as it involves creating two differnt classes of citizens. Its also completely impractical as it would mean 3 different systems for gaining residence rights.
ON NI we still have no solution being offered except magic fairy dust and unicorns
more vague, appeal to both wings of the party, non committal bollox we've become used to. For the Tory Party comes First.
Glad to see May made the same points I have been making here on financial services. European companies and countries come to the UK to borrow money, £1.1 trillion in a single year. They can’t find that elsewhere in Europe, if they want to try the US good luck to them. On “Passporting” she quite rightly said we are not even looking for that. Barnier’s attempt to use Passporting as leverage is a waste of his time
A long but worthwhile read from Mr Dunt (again):
<p dir="ltr">So here we are again. Another Brexit speech from the prime minister, another inch further down the road to nowhere. Her glacial transformation from fairy tale to economic disaster continues. Watching her over the last 18 months has been like seeing a children's animation turn into a bleak kitchen sink drama. She began with gusto and passion, promising that Britain could have all the trade it wanted - "the exact same benefits", to use David Davis' phrase, outside the single market and customs union as inside. Britain would call the shots, because it buys cars. We wouldn't pay any money to Europe and would walk out if they kept insisting on it.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Then slowly the compromises came. The Florence speech saw her repeat, almost word-for-word, Brussel's requirements on the budget, like a hostage reading out a statement written by their kidnapper. That kept talks on the road. This time she was faced with the universal calls for clarity on her position, which now came from three directions - Brussels, the hard Brexiters and the Remainers. A pretty formidable coalition, united at last in their desire to know what the hell was going on.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The choice is simple. If Britain keeps all its control it must give up its trade. But if it wants to keep all its trade, it must lose some control. This is not because Brussels is mean or vengeful. It is because it facilitates open borders on the basis that they are all part of the same legal system, with the same monitoring and enforcement bodies operating amid the same institutions. The UK is leaving those arrangements and consequences follow from that. At the moment, Britain looks like a teenager telling his parents he is leaving the house, but still demanding they drive over and cook his meals.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Rhetorically at least there was some improvement. May said the border in Ireland must stay completely open - a welcome confirmation given Boris Johnson's now stated views to the contrary. She admitted that there would be a loss of access to the single market due to her policies. She accepted that the European Court of Justice (ECJ), which she foolishly made a red line in late 2016, would probably still have a role in British law. Her criticisms of the EU were often fair. She was right to say, for instance, that they should not be demanding the regulatory standards of a Norway deal while offering the benefits of a Canada one. She will have earned some points for signing up to EU rules on state aid - although made the likelihood of a Labour rebellion on the final deal more likely.</p>
<p dir="ltr">And she did bring clarity. It's just that it wasn't on the choice between trade and control. It was clarity on her own fantasy about not having to make the choice.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Yes, she has given up on the idea that you can have your cake and eat it. But she still believes that she can take all the chocolate off the other slices and put it on hers, only for the EU to smile magnanimously and offer her some more helpings.</p>
<p dir="ltr">It is a nonsense. It is not going to happen. May is peddling furiously now, but it is down a path which everyone has already warned her leads to a dead end.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Her Florence plan was for three baskets. There would be one part of the economy where the UK would harmonise its regulations with the EU. Another part would align, so that it had the same standards but reached them in its own way. And a third part would diverge. Harmonisation was for things like aviation and chemicals, where the UK would seek associate membership of EU agencies. Alignment was for goods, where regulatory standards would remain "substantially" the same in future and checked off by an independent arbiter, with a consequent loss of market access if they decided it was no longer up to scratch. And divergence was for things like agriculture and fisheries, which could go their own way.</p>
<p dir="ltr">To this she added one final basket - "creative solutions". This was for things like financial services, where there was no precedent for what she was trying to achieve. She knows she needs something that looks like harmonisation, but she can't allow the rules to be set outside of UK control for such a major sector. So her solution is to basically throw up her hands and say: 'Help me'.</p>
<p dir="ltr">If you are trying to come up with a half-in-half-out plan, this actually isn't bad. You'd expect this level of detail towards the end of 2016 rather than the start of 2018, but the substance is okay. You can see why No.10 has picked the sectors it has for each basket.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The trouble is that the half-in-half-out plan cannot work. The EU has said it does not work. For her to pursue it now is like spending days thinking about interior design for a building which is due to be demolished. If one country can take all the lovely bits and none of the troublesome bits, then everyone will do the same. European freedoms are based on establishing trust and that trust is earned by entwining yourself in the legal structure of the EU. But May has squandered that trust by spendfing 18 months berating Remainers, making threats to the EU, talking meaningless twoddle about non-existent options, and allowing her ministers to issue colourful attacks on Brussel's founding principles. She has let them go for over a year with no idea what she wants. Of all the things she has, trust isn't one of them.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The irony is that her three market model isn't actually all that different to the existing EEA agreement enjoyed by Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. After all, they are in EU agencies. They have their own Efta court decide whether they are sticking to the EU regulations, but otherwise they maintain autonomy. They can veto new EU regulations, which has the consequence of extracting them from the relevant part of the EEA agreement, a system which is similar to how May imagined her alignment basket operating. They have areas - again, like May, agriculture and fisheries - where they have nothing to do with the EU.</p>
<p dir="ltr">But this is based on an arrangement where countries want to work together to find solutions. It is one where they accept all the responsibilities of the EU - including, yes, free movement - as a way of getting all the freedoms. Far from butting heads, the Efta court and the ECJ have increasingly begun taking each others judgements as precedents, in a much more egalitarian relationship than any British political analyst would have predicted. None of the countries involved have ever triggered that veto. Why? It's partly because they don't want to lose access to the market. But it's also because these countries operate collegiately as part of a shared initiative. They are not stuck in the mire of emotional identity politics and reactionary nationalism, in which cooperation with other countries is seen principally through the prism of 19th Century naval warfare. Basically, they have not gone mad.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Britain basically has gone mad and in its spasm of anti-social behaviour it has settled on a plan which gives it everything it wants and none of the things it does not want. That is as far away from the pragmatic and workmanlike solutions of the EEA agreement as you're likely to get.</p>
<p dir="ltr">The EU response, which is not unfair given the circumstances, is that, well - Brexit means Brexit. If you don't want the rights and responsibilities then you're looking at an old-school goods-only trade deal, like Canada's. Probably they will find one single, solitary plus to stick on the end - some kind of moderate compromise on financial services, which manages to ease the concerns of several member states about access to London and offer May something to sell back home. It'll be devastating and self-harming to sabotage Britain;s trading prospects with such a deal, but that is the direction of travel.Today's speech was probably the last chance to change course, no matter how unlikely that was to happen. The fact she chose not to suggest that is now our final destination. It is not a good one. The next months will be very rough.</p>
How about the people who were fanatically opposed to Joining the EEC in the first place? Gaitskell, Benn, Castle, Foot… rotters the lot of them, clearly.
Not wanting to leap into the unknown, without any guarantees of what you'll gain, seems perfectly rational.
Now that we're in the EU and it's clear what we stand to lose, it seems very odd to want to leap into the unknown without any guarantees of what we'll gain.
FFS The Mash doesn't even look like satire anymore.
Not wanting to leap into the unknown, without any guarantees of what you’ll gain, seems perfectly rational.
Exactly. I am a remainer but if we were not in the EU I doubt I would vote to join. Wanting to leave what you are already part of is not the same as joining something you are not part of.
Why do your friends in Paris not just send their kids to the local school, Jamba? Seems a pity not to learn a language and get a Bac. Madame has kids in some of her classes from Germany and the UK whose parents work for an oil major. The school provides extra English tuition and they soon fit in. A friend had kids who wanted to go through British universities, the Bac was accepted no problem. Junior's Bac and Arbitur were worth all the A*s he could have got in the UK as far as Universities were concerned, and being trilingual is hardly a handicap in life.
former permanent secretary at the Treasury
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/969581340952809472
up to you of course but remember France, Germany, Holland and Italy have larger portions of their populations voting for FN, AfD , Freedom Party or 5-star than the UK ever had for UKIP. Much higher, more like double.
Really? UKIP got 25% of the vote in enfgland at times. which country has a anti europe far right neofascist party with 50% of the vote?