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Jeremy Corbyn said in his “customs union”speech that he wanted the UK to be free of state aid rules (obvious as he wants to nationalise stuff and offer favourable loans/capital via state investment bank). However the EU is almost certain to deny such freedoms to any customs union partner ...
http://www.brexitcentral.com/problem-customs-union/
Fuel smuggling (which AFAIK is really the only appreciable smuggling that takes place across the border these days) costs what, around £300million a year? Great - another week’s funding for the NHS. 😆
The Unicorn 5G electronic border solution will see to that, no doubt. There’s no way smuggling will get any worse post-Brexit is there?
I do love it when jamba can only parrot his echo chamber when it comes to the Irish question. Ignorance is bliss I suppose.
I think Hoey and the rest of the headbangers may well regret sending her out to pop the seal on the GFA - what was it? “Take a cold hard look...” or something like that? Unintended consequences coming their way. All very entertaining.
Anyway, has Turkey joined yet?
Well after watching the performances of Boris and Little Liam today and their steadfast grip on affairs and Real Politic, coupled with Davis ‘exhaustive’ analytical detail previously, i’m Looking forward to this brave new world.
i’d originally been sceptical of May putting in charge of the most important negotiations since the Second World War three total clowns who you wouldn’t trust to run a bath
not after today. I’m a believer! ONWARDS TO EMPIRE 2.0!!!!!
Shanker Singham is director of economic policy and prosperity studies at the Legatum Institute, and chairman of the Legatum Institute
SKIP LINK
I’m presently watching a documentary on WW2. It’s about 1940-41. It seems the French were rubbish, the Dutch and Belgiums were a bit meh, we got lucky but the Germans were really good at this war stuff, but the Russians were too
Now i’m totally Conflicted about how I feel about it all. Should I just re-write history, fast forward to a mythical 1955 utopia and arrest my feelings there? With a brief fast forward to 1966, obvs? Like everyone else who voted for Brexit?
EU is also struggling with “chlorine” washed chicken due to salmonella in Poland and the obvious solution being ….
The obvious solution being to stay in an organisation that addresses an international problem in a co-ordinated way.
Fuel smuggling (which AFAIK is really the only appreciable smuggling that takes place across the border these days) costs what, around £300million a year? Great – another week’s funding for the NHS. 😆
The cross border crime could increase as the border becomes a point ofexit / entry for various duties and taxation drawbacks and refunds. Like the old days of smuggling cattle across the border and changing their ear tags to screw CAP. Obviously customs has been completely run doŵn so the uk will be done over 🙂
Presumably once Brexit occurs we' re leaving the vat regime and scrapping it as its an eu tax?
Brexiters have no solutions to the border issue.
Unfortunate as the government agreed to full alignment between Eire & NI as a fall back & it looks increasingly like we'll need that.
Hannan & Jenkin both flustered & incoherent on Newsnight, confused rambling & strange blinking from Jenkin re border questions.
Meanwhile Liam Fox offered his vision for a packet of crisps Brexit, he can't yet even point to the <1% of GDP worth of trade deals that the DEXEU reckon he can achieve (over 10 years) to replace the 5% we will lose from the Trade Deal we haven't even started negotiating yet with the EU.
The lack of grown ups/experts/sane people involved in Brexshit is really starting to shine through
“The Unicorn 5G electronic border solution will see to that, no doubt. There’s no way smuggling will get any worse post-Brexit is there?“
Except that the model for a “unicorn” customs border already exists - between Canada and the USA. In the most recent pilot a road crossing between the two nations dealt with around $400m of freight movements a day and the digital infrastructure allows goods to be pre-cleared and moved without inspection. Both countries are now looking to scale the model to a full blown system:
Every time you hear this isn’t possible from the EU ask yourself “why” they are so insisistent it can’t work / hasn’t been done before and you’ll likely get closer to the real agenda - which is using the threat of hard borders and resurrection of the associated conflict as a particularly low negotiating tactic. The simple truth is that it’s the EU that wants a hard border between Ireland and the UK and it should therefore pay for it and take liability for any social consequences.
EU spokesman , not;
Pascal Lamy is the former head of the World Trade Organisation
The former head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) believes a hard border will happen post-Brexit.
Pascal Lamy thinks "the choice" is whether it would be through the island of Ireland or down the Irish Sea.
He was giving evidence to the Commons Brexit Committee.
After Brexit, the government is committed to avoiding physical checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Mr Lamy told MPs: "The moment the UK exits the (EU) Customs Union there has to be a border. The choice is whether it is north-south or east-west.
There is a sea in between (Northern Ireland and Great Britain) but I recognise this is politically extremely explosive."
Mr Varadkar said it cost the Canadian government more than €1 billion a year to operate 250 crossings, almost all of which are staffed.
He said the Canadians use a “trusted importers” system, which is similar to the “trusted trader” system proposed by the UK for the Irish border.
“They have been working to streamline the border crossings for years but it is still a highly complex operation,” he said of the Canadian system. “They use technology to help identify and stop prohibited goods such as firearms. Tradesmen who want to work on either side of the border can face particular challenges; each time they cross the border they have to go through a validation process.”
‘Regulations’
The Taoiseach said larger companies had “well established” processes for dealing with customs posts but that border officials told him “it can be much tougher for smaller firms to cope with the standards and regulations”.
“They are also different standards for agriculture-food goods between the US and Canada and that can pose its own problems,” he added. “It was a very interesting visit but it certainly left me in little doubt that the US Canada model would not be desirable on the island of Ireland.”
there is is no system or infrastructure in place for pre entry and clearance for the level and nature of trade across the land border. HMRC have been starved of funds and resources for years as control was moved to relying on trader's internal systems. The U.K. Is pushing this with its agenda of brexit we either deal,or pay the price and any resultant collapses in the peace process or targeting of the border by dissident republicans is going to cost the UK a lot more than the EU. Also the Eu has not said it isn't possible but that the UK has to decide what deal it wants as detailed by Lamy this effects the nature of any border, allow free movement across the border of people by agreeing a CTA and invest in the border.
Except the EU yesterday reiterated that they don't want a hard border & frustrated with UK not producing any details of what it will look like.
The border you link to doesn't exist yet j5m, it's still a test and Johnsons letter shows that even with his c-charge analogy a hard border would still exist with 5% of traffic still be stopped.
The USA Canada model is definitely the way forward but it contradicts the govs pledge to have no infrastructure, including cameras at the border & as has shown that implementation takes time (foul ups already caused big delays in tests) and it's very expensive, tho I suppose in the overall cost of Brexit a few hundred million extra debt isn't much
As for pretending it's the EU that wants a hard border , that tired Brexie trope is fooling no one, the ref emphasised taking control of our borders, keeping immigrants out, etc pitiful to pretend you will achieve that with no borders!
Every time you hear this isn’t possible from the EU ask yourself “why” they are so insisistent it can’t work / hasn’t been done before and you’ll likely get closer to the real agenda – which is using the threat of hard borders and resurrection of the associated conflict as a particularly low negotiating tactic.
I dunno, could you guys at least try and come up with something new?
In other news, the source of the EU and African coffee producers myth has printed a full retraction:
<p class="selectionShareable">A clarification from Philippe Legrain:</p>
<p class="selectionShareable">Calestous Juma claims that the EU harms African coffee roasters by allowing in imports of “non-decaffeinated green coffee” duty-free while charging a 7.5 per cent tariff on roasted coffee. This is incorrect. </p>
<p class="selectionShareable">The EU does charge a 7.5 per cent tariff on imports of roasted coffee from countries to which it does not offer preferential terms. But under its Everything But Arms (EBA) initiative for least-developed countries, almost all African coffee-producing countries can export roasted coffee to the EU tariff-free. Under the Generalised System of Preferences(GSP) for other poor countries, the EU tariff on roasted coffee from Nigeria and the Republic of Congo is a reduced rate of 2.6 per cent. Far from discriminating against African coffee roasters, the EU gives them privileged access to its market.</p>
<p class="selectionShareable">Only Gabon, which the World Bank now classifies as an upper-middle income country, is not eligible for either the EBA or GSP preferential rate. And the EU is seeking to negotiate an Economic Partnership Agreement with it and other Central African countries that could offer it preferential terms too.</p>
<p class="selectionShareable">African farmers benefit from being able to export raw coffee to the EU. While Africa would benefit even more if more coffee was roasted there before export, the EU is not to blame for the fact that it isn’t. Since roasted coffee has a short shelf life, the continent’s poor roads and ports are big impediments. Intermittent electricity and water supplies and high energy costs also make roasting problematic.</p>
https://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
Confusingly J5Ms link notes that it's taken 12 years to reach this stage of testing & the border still requires physical checks & considerable infrastructure.
No wonder EU are preparing fall back position!
Yeah Mogg has been pushing the lies about coffee beans for a while, despite being challenged many times, standard Brexiters
JRM has levelled up this morning. He needs to get his butler to check the sums next time.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/968534387057942529
Except that the model for a “unicorn” customs border already exists – between Canada and the USA.
Nope, that's a hard border. Sure, they're trialling technology, but as yet it's not able to be rolled out, and certainly not in the time frame required here.
Border in the picture that leads that news article tooks fairly hard to me:
Following the Fat Bumblers' congestion charge solution, this morning's "Today" on Radio 4 carried an interview with a Conservative Brexit pundit whose attitude is one that is gaining traction lately.
The British negotiating team's position, with the exit date now looming, has hardened to: "If it all goes tits up and we crash out without a deal, it's all Johnny Foreigners' fault for not just doing as they're told".
Well - send in the clowns? Don't bother, they're here.
it's a line that's been used for 40 years. i don't suppose there'll be much change for the next 40.
How many generations are going to be screwed by this Brexit bobbins, two, three more than that?
Who cares? As long as Boris/Corbyn gets to be PM.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43221934
BoJo in everyone is picking on us for no good reason shocker
Boris Johnson has said the row over the border in Northern Ireland is being used to frustrate Brexit.
The foreign secretary insisted there were "very good solutions" to avoid the need for a hard border.
There is a stand-off on the issue with the EU set to publish a legal draft of its Brexit withdrawal agreement.
This is expected to include an option for Northern Ireland to follow EU rules to avoid a "hard border" - if an alternative arrangement is not agreed.
The Democratic Unionist Party, which offers vital support in key votes to the Tory government, says details of the draft treaty have "fundamentally breached" an agreement reached in Brussels late last year.
Conservative Brexiteers say it is "completely unacceptable" and would effectively annex Northern Ireland.
But the Irish government says the proposal is needed as a "backstop" if no other proposals are found. And a former EU commissioner said it was down to the UK to come up with a solution, warning that "at a high pace we are heading to the cliff edge".
BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith said it was shaping up to become "the big Brexit bust-up" with both sides of the argument refusing to budge.
Isn't this where people are meant to have come up with acceptable solutions, been a bit grown up and discussed this in private before blundering on in public?
The NI border will not be the major problem, tory infighting will be
People have been asking for "acceptable solutions" since before the referendum bill was even passed. Why are you expecting something to appear now, when no one could produce one back then? Truth is, "we" have to choose between several "unacceptable solutions", and it's best to keep that quiet 'till it's far too late to reject them all.
EU is also struggling with “chlorine” washed chicken due to salmonella in Poland and the obvious solution being ….
Source for this gem? Unless you can point to something else, the Polish salmonella issue relates to eggs. The root-cause was that Poland stopped using formaldehyde in chicken feed. It has nothing to do with chlorine washing carcasses.
Shanker Signham really is a ****'s ****.
More asterisk required.
Still, a link to an opinion piece by a Legatum gentleman is a timely reminder that some people will indeed be made better off by the slash and burn of a "hard/clean/extreme/real" Brexit.
Wise words at the end of the Brexie opinion piece Jamba posted:
Do these people have a plan?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Are they naïve?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Or are they just irresponsible political wreckers?
I don't know - do Liam, Boris or David have a plan?
Though this classic at the end of the other piece:
The problem with remaining in the EU is that, aside from the implications of disregarding a referendum vote, politically it is hard to conceive of a situation where the UK could do this and expect the same or better terms than it has now. Any proposals offered, if they are to be seriously considered, must make Brexit more than just a damage limitation exercise. If that is all they do, then they should be rejected.
Interesting that the only argument against remaining in the EU requires invocation of the sunk cost fallacy. I mean I agree that any deal we get to stay in will likely to be worse than we have now, but the only appropriate comparison is against the other options going forwards, not what we once had - typical Brexiteer spin. Brexit is by definition a damage limitation exercise.
What happens to the will of these people now…?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Good_Friday_Agreement_referendum,_1998
Err....Jamba was defending chlorinated chicken early on in this thread. Now its a problem?
Graham Harris, the company’s chief executive, said: “I can confirm this morning that it has not been possible to secure a solvent sale of the business and as a result we now have no alternative but to enter into an administration process.” He added that the retailer has been struggling to mitigate the impact of the pound’s devaluation post the Brexit vote, a weak consumer environment and the withdrawal of credit insurance.
Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/news/business/thousands-jobs-put-risk-toys-r-us-maplin-go-administration/
Yay, Brexit being good for business
Zokes I think you will find that is simply their own fault for not being agile and forward thinking, had they done something like asset stripped the business, cashed in on the property and gone into financial services with the profits they would be still trading.
Retailer with large footprint of stores stacked with crap and unwilling to revise their business model in the age of internet shopping goes to the wall shocker
See also Toys R us
in other news, how nice it is to remember exactly what we were actually told before the referendum:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zNnh-KhiLm0
And…? Project Fear, innit.
Are we supposed to be proving such scare stories to be unfounded, or taking them as promises of what must happen? Was Cameron talking up the possible damage to try and make us think twice before voting, or promising to deliver the damage if we vote against him?
Given the fact that I can't use the sound as I am violently allergic to that cretin's voice, does he happen to be talking about the attractiveness of pigs' heads, per chance?
Well, in keeping with the theme of truth being strange than fiction, here's an analysis of tariffs on bananas (amongst other commodities) by a Professor of EU and WTO trade law through the medium of Twitter via a satire website...
<div class="bbp-reply-author">Jambalaya
<div class="bbp-author-role">
<div class="">Subscriber</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="bbp-reply-content">Jeremy Corbyn said in his “customs union”speech that he wanted the UK to be free of state aid rules (obvious as he wants to nationalise stuff and offer favourable loans/capital via state investment bank). However the EU is almost certain to deny such freedoms to any customs union partner …
</div>
<div class="bbp-reply-content">
http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/02/27/corbyn-on-state-aid-fact-checked
</div>
Jamba...you could at least do the bare minimum of research before you post up tripe
in other news, how nice it is to remember exactly what we were actually told before the referendum:
I am curious as to what you think that means. Since, in case you forgot, his side lost which would indicate people didnt necessarily listen to his arguments.
Whereas the rabid nutters were promising all things to all people and saying anyone saying otherwise was project fear
CMD was that chap who got an advisory referendum through parliament because he knew he wouldn't get a binding one through and promised to implement article 50 immediately after a leave win, ya?
yeah, we should definitely set some store by what he said.
Jamba…you could at least do the bare minimum of research before you post up tripe
New around here?
[i]ninfan wrote:[/i]
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">in other news, how nice it is to remember exactly what we were actually told before the referendum:</span>
What an excellent point:
Fake news again?
You obviously missed that Open Britain video getting the full Brillo treatment aracer: 😄
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_9dKcjfeVTs
Yep thats not aged well- farage now saying he doesnt want a transition after Neil points out he did then & using that as his argument to counter the video
no hyopicrisy there!!
James McGregory obviously not up to the Neil treatment, however none of neils points negate the things that the leavers claimed, ie that we could stay in the SM after Brexit, whatever caveats they added on
They're all just winging it, and making it up as they go along.
And doing it really, really really badly.
I can't remember ever witnessing this level of total, utter and complete incompetence by any other administration, in this country or any other. God knows what the final car crash is going to look like. It just gets worse by the day. They're utterly ****ing clueless and seem to be living in some kind of parallel universe.
Totally agree with this piece in the Guardian yesterday by Zoe Williams. To all intents and purpose the government has totally ceased to function
I see Maybot has conceded on EU citizens rights during transition
worrying for NI as so far the gov has conceded on every demand EU has made
scheduling (supposedly row of summer)
divorce bill (DD didnt recognise a figure of 10s of billions)
NI border fallback (that gov signed up to b4 xmas, now upset its in writing) Johnson was humiliated in HOC today, running away to jeers before he could answer the urgen Q on his leaked letter
EU citizens rights....
tbh binners considering how utterly inept they all seem, Im amazed the country is doing as well as it is!
I am curious as to what you think that means. Since, in case you forgot, his side lost which would indicate people didnt necessarily listen to his arguments.
Whereas the rabid nutters were promising all things to all people and saying anyone saying otherwise was project fear
Wait, you’re literally complaining because you chose to believe what Nigel Farage said instead of the Prime Minister of Great Britain?
worrying for NI as so far the gov has conceded on every demand EU has made
Not that much of a worry, as NI voted to remain May caving in to the EU will be consistent with the wishes of the people there. Will expose the DUP as money grabbing chancers but then again the RHI scandal already did so not that big a surprise