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Question to all:
I read that May has bowed to pressure from Arlene Foster with regard to power sharing agreements in Northern Ireland.
What's your take on how we avoid a repeat of The Troubles? How would a post-Brexit Northern Ireland look in your view?
“ I will give up on facts”
To give up on something, one must have first relied upon it.
Elise Christie has done a Brexit; crashed out of the race after tripping up the other competitors, only to be subsequently disqualified by the judges, yet having the arrogance to blame everybody else taking part.
Or maybe Brexit is doing a Christie. It works as an analogy either way.
THM, whilst Zippykona's situation is not necessarily applicable to the whole country, it's not fair to dismiss it.
If he has to close his shop and work as a builder or something instead, then the economic numbers may not change - but it will be pretty miserable for him. Do not overlook this, it does matter IMO.
...and were he to close his shop and not find an alternative form of income then that’s even more problematic
Problems?
I don’t want to hear about your problems. I’ve got fences to erect for my unicorn farm.
The independent chocolatier confectionary company (employs 20+ full time staff and many seasonal staff) i used to work for as a chocolatier use anywhere from 200kg to 2000kg+ a week dependant on where we are in the season (xmas/easter/valentines day etc), we exported to all european countries, middle east, australia, asia, america and we imported goods (packaging and consumable) from the european union and china/taiwan.
The margins were rather thin before the talk of the brexit vote but sustainable with careful examination of all running costs on a regular basis, since the brexit vote they have had absolutely zero confirmation of what is likely to happen regarding export/import tariffs etc and as one of the main employers (and tourist attractions) in a very rural galloway area there is a genuine worry amongst the company and employees as to how this farce is going to pan out, so i echo zippykona's alarm at this bit of a mess of epic proportions.
edit : Ha!, i thought the swear filter would have automatically **** the "cluster + insert slang term for copulation here" but i sort of prefer the inserted "bit of a mess" - i guess a mod sorted that?
They should be excited during these exciting times, tell them to make some plans, be excited and adapt - they'll be fine
Also remind them that as the UK has "a flexible exchange rate and an independent monetary policy" so there is literally nothing they can do/need to be worried about*
20 people in a small rural location is devastating to that area and will take a lot of recovering from, but as these will all be smart go getters I assume they will be easily adapting to life on the dole or managing their extensive share portfolio from the local starbucks
*Delete as appropriate
Anyone else think General Melchett would fit right into DExEU?
Baaaaaahhh
I have not dismissed zippy’s position, although I would suggest that (1) brexit is not the only variable that determines the demand for luxury chocolates and (2) other factors are moving in a manner that is not as bad as first feared
But he is the expert. It’s his choses market to concentrate on and his responsibility to manage the value drivers or his business. It’s not anyone else’s
I would suggest that luxury chocolates are not a commodity item so he will have others ways of competing. If not and if his business is totally dependent on the movement of exchange rates and price competition then it’s not a great business to be in with or without Brexshit
Mol. If Brexshit turns out badly, I may have to relocate myself and family at a time when I have aging relatives that need care. I may lost my job. Life’s shit at times isn’t it? We adapt - sometimes to good things sometimes to bad things. There is nothing new in that.
zippy is not unique
I appreciate that THM. What I don't understand is your point.
You're saying it's not going to be as bad as people are saying. Ok, that's great. You seem light on details though? Is it just a hunch or faith in the system or what?
In fact, why are we bickering at all? I don't think THM deserves most of this, I think people are just mis-reading what's being said here.
Well let’s take it step by step
1. The outcome from Brexshit vote has proved to be much less severe than our side projected in order to scare people. The detail and facts are clear. The forecasts were only close on £ and inflation. Details
2. We have progressed beyond the levels that many stated could not be breached. We are now focusing on trade and the EU are being clear that an FTA is the mutually desired outcome. Details
3. We are starting to see how regulatory equivalence might work across many industries and that there is a mutual recognition here. Details
so we didn’t want Brexshit. But it’s going to happen. So far, the outcome has been better than feared and we are making progress on trade from which much of the rest is derived.
I just look at what is in front of me.
Are you not missing the elephant in the room THM, that the cabinet still have not decided on what final outcome they want from Brexit?
Davis added a tiny bit of clarity today by suggesting that we'd seek regulatory alignment, effectively making us rule takers, alignment will mean that brexit bill now has a chance of keeping devolved govs happy & getting through lords, but will leave the swivel-eyed frothing
+ The Irish border problem kicked into the long grass for now (despite brexiters now attacking the GFA!)
Brexit as sold never mentioned compromise, but obviously thats what we will have to accept, the egos of the brexiters able to accept this ?
It’s odd to sell a process of negotiation that didn’t involve conpromise
If there was no compromise what is the purpose of the negotiations?
both the cabinet and the shadow cabinet and the Europeans are split on the boundaries of compromises (assuming that this happens)
We have progressed beyond the levels that many stated could not be breached.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Who are these "many"? Since all the people I saw saying it couldnt be breached were dealing with the fantasy claims of the brexit idiots. In several cases the UK backed down and in others its just been postponed. So exactly as people were predicting outside of the always possible factor that the brexit loonies would completely scupper everything.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Which still cant be ruled out. Ninfans position isnt a 100 miles from some MPs.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Also for someone going on about details you sure arent keen on them.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">
As it happens: I suspect some half arsed compromise will occur which will leave us with all the downsides, plus some new ones, and fewer upsides to what we have now.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">It does have the risk though:</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Brexit loonies either wanting FREEDOM or just some asset stripping during a firesale undermining it.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">All those brexit voters realising that instead of getting unicorns they are if anything worse off than before.</span>
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Once all the individual EU countries get involved having a really messy deal with countries wanting various things and screwing up the deal for the EU as a whole and the UK.</span>
The fact May cant organise a piss up in a brewery and might screw it up through sheer ineptitude.
Forumites
1. The outcome from Brexshit vote has proved to be much less severe than our side projected in order to scare people. The detail and facts are clear. The forecasts were only close on £ and inflation. Details
I didn't check at the time, did the forecasts include the softening of any impact via the BoE measures that were put in place?
2. We have progressed beyond the levels that many stated could not be breached. We are now focusing on trade and the EU are being clear that an FTA is the mutually desired outcome. Details
Yep the UK wasted nearly 9 months and a lot of good will to get to just about the day 1 position. As predicted, the impact of these things especially around the NI border is very important and has bound the UK to an extent.
3. We are starting to see how regulatory equivalence might work across many industries and that there is a mutual recognition here. Details
Far too late but a start, we will get something, some industries will struggle because of it, some will go under. Key ones will have some attempt to look after them but others will just be lost in "details"
Again the huge amount of work that needs to be done in an ever shortening timescale is a huge worry, the chances of everything being in place are slim and the transition will be a rocky one. The cost to the UK economy of diverting funds for all these projects is currently unknown and a risk. The simple question of how do we pay for all this is not being addressed at all.
But still march on we do, the it's not going to be quite as bad as the worst case scenario just isn't snappy, who's got a better one? At least it's our shit we just stepped in?
It is a worry, true, which is why it was so odd that so many chose to side with the EU position - must be combination of myopia and pathological hatred of the Tories. Either way, not very helpful when we needed to get on with it.
It’s odd to sell a process of negotiation that didn’t involve conpromise
Freudian typo?
It is a worry, true, which is why it was so odd that so many chose to side with the EU position
You really don't get that bit do you?
It's possible to have an opinion on the process without taking sides, it's not the school playground. Many people see what a truly awful job the government is doing here. Scant regard for parliamentary process, contempt for select committees and the contradictory statements
We all hope the UK does well but a lot of people see the eu as being more mature, right on many issues and doing what is in their best interest. Waving some flags and chanting let em ave it dave isn't going to change a thingt
😀
The other thing that is making people a little annoyed I think, THM, is that you are telling US that we should be 'getting on with it and not moaning'. Well most of us are pretty powerless, and feeling it, so that grates. It's not like we are all economists consulting to the civil service or whoever.
No really
And they aided with those interests too - as I said myopia or pathological hatred of Tories. I could also add undemocratic too. But that’s a bit of a deal nerve isn’t it?
Not at all mol. It’s up to everyone to decide how to respond.
No one is powerless unless they choose to be.
If people prefer to not move on, to dwell in the past, to make things up about the present and to unnecessarily fear the future, then that is their prerogative. It’s a free world....
No it just gets you the ignore the troll bin for a while.
Trite and supercilious again THM ? Plus ca change.
Well Davis has just conceded that we will still be following EU regs on car mfr , pharma & even state aid!
Which almost sounds like a hint of a plan, if also a loss of sovereignty
Problem is that Davis' reputation for honesty has been thoroughly trashed, just look at his impact assessments that do/don't exist!
😀
I have been following this thread for a while and feel that the 'debate has long since been poisoned to the extent that there is no purpose adding to it.
So just my two pence worth:
Remember that the future is not written yet. If you believe that the UK is on the wrong path then consider supporting political bodies and pressure groups supporting your world view rather than just arguing on the web.
This could be 'remain, it could be 'leave but stay close", it could be 'clean break', it could be anything you wish. You may not achieve miracles, but it will make you feel better!
Ignore those who tell you that campaigning for your view is anti democratic.
No one is powerless unless they choose to be.
What bollocks.
Is that a technical flip chart term or a real luxury confectionary term, mol?
Sit back and enjoy the "mad max" or "slightly annoyed Rees Mogg" post Brexit landscape.
Thing is our politicians (unelected or ambitious) are actually going to have to come up with some "suggestions" on the Brexit journey in the very near future.
I can't wait...
It's going to be a cunning plan...
Here's my forecast...
May and Davis cave on FOM to keep the boat afloat and parity on all things EU remain in place
Rees Mogg explodes....
Boris does nothing
Gove steps back into the shadows
Jezza claims an indirect labour victory
The great unwashed all wail for a Farage "return"
We are all a little worse off (spiritual and financial)
Aaaaand as predicted the swivel-eyed Tories none too happy with Davis' regulatory alignment today.
At least may has a strong enough majority to, ... oh wait......
Shut up this is democracy
I like the way that the private and confidential letter remained that way for a full four days 🙂
On the plus side it gives May a chance to demonstrate who is in charge and slap them down. Oh wait...
Odd that they mention Lancaster House speech and then make suggestions that immediate conflict with the goals laid out in it.
But no wonder they are so noisy - they are losing the debate here
“If you believe that the UK is on the wrong path then consider supporting political bodies and pressure groups supporting your world view rather than just arguing on the web.”
It is possible to do both of these things.
I’ve been in the air for 9 hours.
It seems the only thing that’s changed is there is a definitive list of swivel eyed loons - just over 60 I think.
When I left the government were threatening to u-turn in the settling of the bill as well as some loons suggesting they didn’t like the GFA anyway - is that still the same?
Did they specify exactly how many unicorns they want in their letter?
But no wonder they are so noisy – they are losing the debate here
Of course they are losing the debate at the moment but bit shows that the brexit delivered will satisfy very few people. Also these 60 could decide to start a little tory bloodshed if they wanted as I'm sure some of their backers and supporters will be getting very frustrarted.
Why they don't just shut up and respect the will of the people is a mystery
The debate that matters isn't the one taking place here. Not so clear who is winning the debate in the HoC.
Its all sabre-rattling. They won't do a bloody thing to bring May down. If they had the balls they'd have done it by now. She should grow a pair and call their bluff. She won't, of course. She's too weak, timid and feeble
There was an interesting take on this in yesterdays Guardian - Pity the 52%. Led by cowards and charlatans
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/20/brexit-52-ukip-leavers
Its difficult to argue with this statement:
A large faction of Tory MPs take a Faragist view of that method. They see compromise with the EU as treason. They have the numbers to oust May, yet they don’t. Why not? If the nation’s destiny is at stake and the prime minister is failing, surely Jacob Rees-Mogg and friends feel a moral duty to replace her.
She's weak, timid and feeble, but she's braver than them!! They'll issue dictats and throw insults from the sidelines but they've no interest of taking ownership and responsibility, and therefore direct blame for any of it