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Never mind zippy, there will be cake for all and innovative jam for tea!
Well said kelvin. Kimbers trying to suggest that anti-immigration is a Tory thing is rather disingenuous. Jezza was equally categorical
No I am not afraid mol. Of course, I would have preferred to remain a member of the EU. But we have chosen another path. But I am confident that we have a flexible economy that will adjust quicker than people believe - albeit it not completely as some will lose out for sure. So I am equally pleased that to date, the doomsday merchants have been proved wrong on pretty much everything other than £, inflation and the impact on real wages
Interesting THM.
I spoke to a friend at the weekend. He's a lecturer in Economics at a top UK University (was lecturing at Oxford as well). His view was that UK will slowly do worst and worst and will be left behind by EU.
Remind us what you do so I can weight your views accordingly.
I believe that both are likely to deliver sub trend growth for some time - not least because of the levels of debt. We shall see how the EZ fares when the ECB stops stealing later this year. Growth may be expanding but the foundations remain very shaky and the folly of the € continues. Ask your friend about the impact of € strength on EZ net exports given the weaknesses in domestic demand across the region.
I don’t want to steal Jambas’ thunder but I am sure that he will be happy to provide the link to recent academic research that examines why economists have been so poor at forecasting the impact of Brexshit some far. He sent it to me this morning and I have only skim read it on the train. It’s interesting.
FWIW current models are poorly suited to the future that we face. But don’t expect an economics lecturer to agree. The overuse of maths has given my chosen subject a false sense of precision and integrity and most assumptions taught at undergrad level are flawed (IMO of course)
The precise range of forecasts bandied about by politicians and the media are particularly silly given the very high sensitivity of the underlying models to small changes in the core assumptions.
The one thing we know for certain is what has happened so far. Reality is very distant from the remoaner doomsday scenarios, thank goodness!!!
I really don't give a shit about the ECB and all this really important stuff that exists in your financial fantasy land.
I give a shit about what is going to happen in my shop and countless shops across this country.
You "experts" get so caught up in your computer algorithms you miss what is happening in real life. It looks like it's going to bite me first but eventually it will get to you.
Luckily you can prepare. Good luck.
He was suggesting 10-15 years of poor growth.
Again;
Remind us what you do so I can weight your views accordingly.
Was the risk of tearing up the GFA just part of "project fear"?
If so, why are Brexiteer MPs & MEPs now talking up the idea that the GFA is ripe for the scrapheap (without, of course, proposing any coherent plans for replacing it)?
The “new” anti-GFA stuff is interesting (besides worrying - more of that to come I’m sure) as I suspect plenty of these nutcases with their “new” opinions have held them for a lot longer than we think - but I suppose the current zeitgeist surrounding the whole shitshow is a convenient time to bring them to the surface.
The island of Ireland has become more “united” since the GFA than it had ever been since partition. A lot of DUPpers opposed the GFA first time round and still do, some more so because of all the cross border initiatives that have happened since its inception. And it’s not like it’s a good time for a bit of loyalist opportunism is it now?
You should do zippy as their actions directly impact your cost of goods sold and your margins
Not sure about your fantasy comments - I am agreeing that they instill a false sense of precision to a world that is anything but precise
I would largely agree leku for us and for the EZ. But the danger with that argument is that it plays right into the hands of the leavers. So be careful 😉
Brexit will be one of the prime movers towards a united ireland even if it's a federal coming together. Unionism has once again shown itself to be a self centred, anachronistic, political strain with a limited shelf life.
"research that examines why economists have been so poor at forecasting the impact of Brexshit some far."
So we're all agreed economists don't know shizzle about brexit 😉
No quite the opposite. But we do know that applying precision to LT forecasts of complex economies carries very high margins of error
...or simply errors if you have been mandated to scare people
No I am not afraid mol....
some will lose out for sure....
Right so you're not afraid because you'll be ok even though others won't. Right, gotcha.
I'm afraid because if we slow down it will increase the general shitness of the current state of affairs for lots of people in the UK. More cuts, fewer services, more people struggling. I'm ok, and am likely to continue to be so, but I'm worried about the vulnerable. Are you worried about the vulnerable? I know economists tend to look at the numbers, but there are people at risk.
I can only hope that Brexit causes enough political turmoil to reveal how shit we have been at government all these years, and how we can change.
If you are happy with the growth figures THM, are you not worried that we are growing slower than our neighbours? Do you think we will be able to continue to compete with Germany or France for non-EU business?
TBF, THM seems to be saying that extrapolation is unlikely to be as accurate as the documentation of past events. financial winds are as easy to forecast as 'real' ones. this isn't exactly news.
the main thing is, can our current course can be altered? if the answer is 'no', is the future is worth worrying about? if you can't practically do anything about it as a PAYE ( other than batten down the hatches, keep as much in reserve as you can ) what will be, will be. of course an economist might suggest that this is a bad thing to do, in our consumer driven economy, cos if everyone does it, we bring about the crash we fear anyway.
No mol. The reason I am not “afraid” is that the UK economy is flexible and resilient. Hence to date the doomsday scenarios have not happened. We should all be relieved and happy about that
Of course I would prefer if we remained members of the EU but that’s history. As you can see from the many pages above I am “relatively” positive (1) about the likelihood of deals being struck and (2) the ability of the UK economy to adapt to change
Yes I am worried about the vulnerable and as a family we do specific things to help them with. I guess you do too.
Will we be able to compete? Yes. If we have a competitive advantage. If not then no. Nothing changes there.
Hence to date the doomsday scenarios have not happened. We should all be relieved and happy about that
Plenty of things like QE have happened as a direct result of the outcome of a vote, I've had some of my best exchange rates buying ££ for a while. The precise way it will go is still up for debate but to suggest nothing major will happen as the UK steps out of the EU is fanciful. Many predictions were on exit of the EU not this round of talking shops.
I am relatively positive (1) about the likelihood of deals being struck and (2) the ability of the UK economy to adapt to change
Given we had a select committee suggesting this week that the chance of a FTA being sorted by the end of a transition was optimistic to be polite about it what gives you a confidence (other than saying grown ups) that the UK will get something that will work? It's going to result in some kind of downturn as all some industries will suffer.
What do you see as they key areas of opportunity for the economy to adapt into?
Given that the type of deal is still unknown it's going to need to be very flexible and responsive in order to change that fast without a period of damage. What gives you that confidence?
The UK has a consumer demand lead economy at the moment, huge levels of personal debt and a very big fear of interest rate rises, it's got a top heavy housing market and a lot of people's imagined wealth is tied up in that. Most large companies seem to have a pension deficit along with a huge amount of the public sector. The UK is reliant on migran work in many sectors who are voting with their feet.
The list of conclusions from the Rural Affairs SC had a list of things that needed doing by government that would keep a normal parliament buys, if that is mirrored across other departments what chance do they have of getting deals and systems in place to have a smooth transition?
What is going to have funding cut in order to have a new border system? In order to replace CAP, in order to replace foreign workers? To manage visa's, migration and other jobs that have suddenly become needed?
To me it's not something to look forward to or be optimistic about, at the time the UK needs to be pushing funding and assistance into becoming a different tradin nation we also have a lot of paperwork and process to catch up on.
And when did QE start mike?
Good job no one is saying that nothing will happen then, isn’t it (spot the trend here?)
No our side made incorrect forecasts about immediate effects ie after vote. They were only broadly correct on £, inflation and real wages as I noted above. They were far too pessimistic. Our scare tactics not only failed, they were wrong. Badly wrong.
Because both sides need a deal. In the end, one will be delivered. Even the normally bellicose Verhofshadt was relatively optimistic on that - although he sensibly rapped the rabids knuckles about what to expect in the transition period
We are lucky we have a flexible exchange rate and an independent monetary policy - hence our natural adjustment mechanisms are more flexible too. The folly of the € took that away for many.
You are correct about debt levels. The same is true to greater and lesser extents across Europe. Wait until QE is over....
And when did QE start mike?
Irrelevant I'm afraid, a huge injection of cash was needed after the vote, because of the outcome to stabalise the economy, had that not occurred them we would be in a very different place right now, so right out the gate is a huge cost of mitigating the impact of the vote.
We are lucky we have a flexible exchange rate and an independent monetary policy – hence our natural adjustment mechanisms are more flexible too.
All useful things, which industries will take off?
I guess you don't want to look at the massive task that is currently way understaffed and being crippled by the lack of direction from the government in preparing for what comes next?
both sides need a deal. In the end, one will be delivered.
A deal or a good deal? Who is going to lose out on this one? Who is going to be sacrificed? Who's next to be cut when we need out next deal? I'm sure the UK will end up with a deal of some sorts, it will be heavily weighted towards the needs of the EU though.
We're trailing the Eurozone counties almost exactly as most predicted, aren't we? They're doing far better than predicted, and that's helping us (for now).
Irrelevant only if you want to distort the truth
Remind me whether the ECb has also resorted to any unorthodox measures or is this extraordinary growth that you guys are so excited about based on different foundations?
It is a big task, correct, hence my desire - stated many times - to get on with it. Unlike many remoaners I was unimpressed by the ECBs obvious stalling tactics that made this unnecessarily difficult. I preferred making progress to the economic sabotage proposed by some above.
I would expect to see compromises on both sides as seen already. Even if those who chose not to see pretend that we simply bent over and let Barnier roger us. Our virtue is in tact. Thankfully
Glad you are now accepting that a deal will happen. Exciting times aren’t they?!? Worry for my Irish friends as the EU were v happy to fudge the border issue weren’t they. Do they know something that we don’t or do they just not care?
Correct kelvin having lagged the uK and the Us for a long time, the EU has finally caught up and is now growing faster than the Uk. Ok not all of it. Like here that requires a very hefty dose of ECB stealing.
They were slow to react and so much slower to recover. Nothing surprising there
Yes must be a major worry peace going tits up, I suspect if it goes really bad Dublin won't be paying the heaviest price.
Iirc if any proposed border plan doesn't suit Ireland they can just veto an deal we seek with the right, not that they necessarily will but uk is not the whiphand
Ireland are more exposed than most to this going tits up.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-43045699
Glad you are now accepting that a deal will happen. Exciting times aren’t they?!?
A deal yes, one the UK will have to accept unless we fancy remain. You seem to be very excited about the mystery gift option with out knowing what it is. Such unbridled optimism is impressive.
Peace going tits up the cost could be lives
Uk is not in the bargaining hotseat as an Irish complete veto will expose uk more than7%.
And if there is a veto maybot has agreed
The fallback position is described thus in the December agreement: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the UK will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North-South co-operation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 [Belfast] Agreement.”
Hence the tories buyers remorse (Irish Times)
Apologies for disjointed reply currently one armed
No the times are the exciting bit. The outcome will be a more pedestrian fudge in the end most likely
You seem to be very dismissive about the mystery gift option with out knowing what it is. Such unbridled pessimism is disappointing.
Do you see what I did there Mike?
Lame troll and no facts as usual ninfan? Your whatever soslongso as we leave option should cover any outcome.
No facts?
You're the one who has spent, literally, months jumping on every single piece of conjecture, rumour and scuttlebutt in order to predict doom and disaster in the imminent future, without anything so much as resembling a fact anywhere in sight.
I see the latest dirtbag brexiteer spew is to claim that the GFA is not now viable - what a convenient solution to the NI border problem.
Will we be able to compete? Yes. If we have a competitive advantage. If not then no. Nothing changes there.
You have stated the obvious. The question I really want answered is WILL we have a competitive advantage? You have basically said you don't know. But this does not worry you?
Premise number 1. Britain wants back control it's not about the money - bollocks as a nation we are greedy capitalists
Premise number 2. The EU will cave in for a few of our English Pounds - bollocks as a group they will stand some pain to preserve their Union.
The whole debate/proposition is arse first - just like that **** wit Rees Mogg when he moaned about the Bayeux Tapestry and that we should send them Nelsons flag - his mob are directly descended from the Normans for Christ sake. Don't look in their eyes folks keep a watch on their hands.
THM - my understanding is that many economic forecasts suffer from two things - the models don’t cover discontinuities very well and they assume economically rational actors. Now Brexit probably counts as a discontinuity and as everyone knows (the economists most of all) people aren’t rational.
Did I get anything right there? (Much happier with electrons you see, which behave absolutely predictably in a statistical manner - most of the time)
Now while it’s very easy to act irrationally in the short term it gets harder in the long term. So a response to a Brexit vote and economic gloom being to start spending and actually boost the economy is not that surprising, particularly when you’re told inflation is coming and your cash has more buying power today - but whether it’s sustainable is the question.
So around the vote the models will be erratic, and probably around leaving too, though that depends on how much of a change that really is, and long term we’re all, I hear, dead - but in the medium term models will give some indication I would have thought.
I blinking hope so given the economists I use are thousands a day - though they aren’t really doing predictions normally.
Anyway off to Calgary for a couple of days, so I’ll probably catch you guys Friday. Hopefully the brextremists haven’t restarted the troubles by then.
You’re the one who has spent, literally, months jumping on every single piece of conjecture, rumour and scuttlebutt in order to predict doom and disaster in the imminent future, without anything so much as resembling a fact anywhere in sight.
Oh he goes for the side splitter...
That's a good point Molgrips, THM is just becoming a parody off TM with nice little soundbites that don't actually mean much, all factually accurate just empty.
Anyway jolly news for the morning
We have one bound in what the Brexit Bulldog see's as the future for the UK, other side with unicorns and fairies or perhaps just one in the middle with Rhino's
Better that stating untruths and lies mike
but you are unintentionally correct - the truth is all rather dull compared with the BS spouted by extremists on either side
hence the grown ups ignore the silly noise and look at what is happening and should be relieved/relatively happy at the progress being made despite the glacial pace
IGM have a good trip. I will send you link from Jambas it’s an interesting read
You’re the one who has spent, literally, months jumping on every single piece of conjecture, rumour and scuttlebutt in order to predict doom and disaster in the imminent future, without anything so much as resembling a fact anywhere in sight.
I think you're mis-reading things.
Most of us remainers are pointing out risks and worries, not predicting certainties. I don't think there are any certainties, and it's obvious ANYONE predicting anything with certainty is talking out of their arse. We're totally in the dark as to what will happen to our own country, and what effect it will have. You, ninfan, seem to think this is not a problem and are convinced everythign is going to be great. I have no idea why you think that. I mean there is an argument that the UK might somehow do better out of the EU but it's risky as hell, there is absolutely no reason to be bullish in the short term.
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Better that stating untruths and lies mike
You are saying nothing and pretending it's rich and content filled
We will get a deal - meaningless
Bespoke Deal - Meaningless
etc.
I see you ignored all the extremist propaganda I raised from other places, like how likely is it the mechanisms will be in place by the time we get to exit or end of the potential transition?
The government has largely got their own way so we must be on their detailed timeline at this point? You know the one nobody has seen
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As I understand it the reason that we didn't go full Mad max (nice one Davis) after the vote as Cameron and Osborne kept claiming is because people were expected to react in the same way as they did after 2008 crash and consumer confidence collapse, most people just carried on regardless.
Helped by Carney being the only grown up in the room, while Cameron hid in shame and the Brexiters got on with their real business of fighting like rats in a sack over being PM. So the BoE stepped into the leadership vacuum & calmly dumped a load more 💰 💰 to settle the markets & prevent a downward spiral. + Cutting interest rates.
So here we are growth slower than expected as ROW surges on, still addicted to low interest rates, personal debt booming and bike bits costing us ever more!
As opposed to:
we will get no deal
we are EUs whipping boys
the economy is buggered
all the banks have gone
Etc
kimbers - apply your analysis to Europe??
Mol - ninfan makes the valid point that many of those who voted remain but cannot accept the result as jumping on any scrap of news and massively exaggerating it for effect. As for certainty, you even make definitive comments on how bad things are going to be despite evidence so far to the contrary
goggle brexit every day and first posts are the guardian and the Indy manipulating noise. Most of it is BS
still we bo have rich people spending their money to affect the democratic process - the ironies continue
Mol – ninfan makes the valid point that many of those who voted remain but cannot accept the result as jumping on any scrap of news and massively exaggerating it for effect.
Is that really happening here though? Really? Or is it the case that the language is positioned to counter your 'it'll be fine' message? I agree that the Guardian is a bit hysterical for about 50% of what comes up on my FB feed.
As for certainty, you even make definitive comments on how bad things are going to be despite evidence so far to the contrary
Well that's definitely not my intention so perhaps I am not getting my point across. After all, why would I state that? What would be the goal of that conversation? I'm voicing my concerns, not making predictions (as I suspect is everyone else here). What I want is to learn about what is going to happen, and that seems not to be possible currently. I am also not yet convinced that our economy is doing just great and will continue to do so - but that remains to be seen.
And I'm also voicing the paradox that for a citizen of a nation that has supposedly taken back control I feel more like a passenger than ever.
THM . For ****s sake forget about your statistics and what your mates in la la land tell you.
The real world is out there beyond your flip charts and focus groups.
If people like me who have shops in very affluent areas ,are battening down the hatches ,what’s it like elsewhere?
When your house burns down will you believe it or dismiss it ,as your projected house / fire prediction hasn’t yet intersected with profile b?
Ok zippy - I will give up on facts and go on anecdotes from high-end confectionary sales in affluent areas instead. May I quote you?
well regards Brexit, there was little reaction in EZ, they didnt stop their QE programme did they? Im not sure brexit wouldve effected that either way?
My point was that the forecasts touted by Osborne & co were about predicting consumer confidence & as one of the Brexit ministers pointed out in HoC that type of analysis is almost impossible to get right
The leaked government impact assesments arent about consumer confidence, they are just adding up the amount of goods produced in each region and seeing what the effect of FOM, CU & SM access etc would mean for tarifs, movement of goods, workers etc.
Very similar outcomes to the EUs own regional impact assessments which did the same thing & the EU released freely (without desperately trying to hide them from the public as our gallant MPs did) even though it indicated that some parts of the EU would also suffer.