[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

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That’s a HUGE downgrade. A full 0.1% in 2 years time. Imagine all the variables behind that.

Where’s captain mainwaring when you need him? Don’t panic....

About 0.7 against everyone else over two years doing it by eye.

I’ll let others decide if that’s HUGE or whether to panic.

It's not unexpected really.

If I read correctly - late and on train - this shows how they have changed their forecasts since Oct

So a tiny adjustment / about as small as you would do. Which given all the potential risks iis

HUGE
Negligible - you decide

Given just how HUGE the catastrophic downgrade is it’s surprising that the IMF makes only a osssing comment about the negotiations in the accompanying brief. How odd when it’s such a HUGE thing?

You're embarrassing yourself. Carry on…

How about I post a meaningless chart without reading the axes ? That WOULD be embarrassing

(Caveat left glasses at work so feel free to correct me if I read it incorrectly. You obviously think it’s important and I would hate to miss HUGE news )

I'm sure you can spot a pattern. All major economies predicted to do better than previous predictions. Well, nearly all. I'd have thought that we'd also have improved expections personally, in such circumstances, not as good as if we weren't messing around with Brexit (that hardly needs saying)… but I'd still expect our economy to be lifted more by our trading partners doing so well. What do the IMF think is up with us?

It is - our slowdown is mild. Second year after peak and still growing 1.5% even after HUGE diowngrade

You did read the axis??

Why the downgrade, when our trading partners have upgrades? Why did the IMF not upgrade our expectations as well, given the additional trade you would expect in this situation? Where is our lift? What do the IMF think we have wrong, so as not to also be upgraded?

Uncertainty that’s why.

You don't think that is factored into the previous forecast? Why do the IMF not expect us to get a lift from our trading partners doing better than expected?

Hey Jam, it's not done and dusted yet.  Financial jobs are still at risk depending on the deal.

Damning piece in the FT today from Philip Stephens.

Theresa May’s new Brexit strategy: jump first, argue later

"Voting to leave the European Union has cost Britain more than £200 million a week in lost growth, the governor of the Bank of England believes. Mark Carney indicated during a private breakfast meeting with business leaders in Davos…"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-costs-200m-every-week-in-lost-growth-says-carney-mxr5cwkhf

But… even if we're on a go slow, if the expectations are raised for our major trading partners, then you would expect us to get a lift from their expected extra success… and expectations for us would also be raised… even if less so. Why have the IMF lowered their expectations for our growth, when they have raised their expectations for everyone else? That's not normal. What are they thinking?

“Voting to leave the European Union has cost Britain more than £200 million a week in lost growth, the governor of the Bank of England believes. Mark Carney indicated during a private breakfast meeting with business leaders in Davos…”

He's being conservative. The original piece of research benchmarking our economy to a basket of others and making forward projections on the basis of referendum (note not no decisions, as there aren't any yet). puts our reduced GDP at £300M per week on where it would be expected to be. It's a nice piece of research.

https://voxeu.org/article/300-million-week-output-cost-brexit-vote

If it's a "race"… it's sort of like a three legged one… but with everyone tied together with elastic… our results will always be tied to the results of our biggest trading partners to some degree… revising predictions for all our trading partners upwards, yet not revising ours upwards… suggests something unusual in the IMF peep's thinking… can anyone guess at what that is? Or offer up some handy links to those who understand their models and thinking more than us humble members of the public do?

"He’s being conservative."

Many articles that report this suggest that is quite deliberate.

With sincere apologies to all concerned, this thread is turning into the analogy of two bald men fighting over a comb.

None of the promises made by Leave look achievable, given that Liam Fox's dept is dogged by staffing issues, David Davis is clearly out of his depth and seems to be giving indications that he wants to quit, Boris is telling lies again and Gove is suspiciously quiet. Meanwhile, the best that soft Brexiteers/Remainers hope for is the resumption of a status quo, there's no political aspiration towards making a commitment to remedying our long standing infrastructure issues that precipitated the referendum result.

We all agree that our economy has stalled when competitive economies are experiencing strong growth, we also all agree that Hard Brexit will result in us trying to bargain trade deals from a position of vulnerability and Soft Brexit will mean no seat at the EU Parliament.

Laughing stock?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

GDP per week, wtf is that ? Don’t (deliberately) confuse GDP with Government revenue or spending. GDP growth has slowed due to uncertainty, my call is for a very substantial bounce back when we see the nature of our future relationship.

Who really knows how much potential growth we have lost by being constained by the EU, how many billions in artifically high prices have consumers paid for goods ? We do know Open Europe thinks EU regulation cost us over £170bn in a 10 year period and they are a pro-EU organisation.

In other news Steve Mnuchin (US Treasury Secretary) said in Davos that a lower dollar is helping US economy boosting local producers. Sound familiar.

Most importantly Hammond got a good slapping from Number 10 tonight saying his remarks where incomsistent with May’s Florence speech.

Most importantly Hammond got a good slapping from Number 10 tonight saying his remarks where incomsistent with May’s Florence speech.

That's like saying tadpoles are getting eaten by bigger tadpoles.

Most importantly Hammond got a good slapping from Number 10 tonight saying his remarks where incomsistent with May’s Florence speech.

No going off message. They can't admit there are no unicorns, that would be a sacking offence.

Most importantly Hammond got a good slapping from Number 10 tonight saying his remarks where incomsistent with May’s Florence speech.

Who really knows how much potential growth we have lost by being constained by the EU, how many billions in artifically high prices have consumers paid for goods ?

I heard this nonsense recently. I love how these idiot brexiters are now championing the "ripped off" British consumer, without even thinking about British industry and agriculture potentially being destroyed by cheap imports.

With sincere apologies to all concerned, this thread is turning into the analogy of two bald men fighting over a comb.

Then just imagine the discussions going on between government ministers, and those around them!

<span style="color: #444444; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">my call is for a very substantial bounce back when we see the nature of our future relationship.</span>

There are 150 reasons not to rely on your call.

<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">"</span><span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12.8px;">Who really knows how much potential growth we have lost by being constained by the EU, how many billions in artifically high prices have consumers paid for goods ?"</span>

... not you...

We do know Open Europe thinks EU regulation cost us over £170bn in a 10 year period and they are a pro-EU organisation.

Since 1998, regulation introduced in the UK has cost the economy £176bn. Of this, £124bn, or 71%, had its origin in the EU

For every £1 of cost, EU regulations introduced since 1998 have only delivered £1.02 of benefits

As for them being Pro EU , they started of euroscpetic became a bit more pro - in a cameron style at distance two speed EU and remained neutral on the vote as they were divided on opinion internally so took no position.

One day we may see you make a statement that is not inaccurate, that day is not today.

The ICM survey, conducted as part of a Guardian reporting project, found 47% of people would favour having a final say on Brexit once the terms of the UK’s departure are known, while 34% oppose reopening the question.
Excluding the roughly one-fifth who do not have a view gives a lead of 58% to 42% for a second referendum, showing rising interest in the idea as concern grows over the direction of recent negotiations.

The increased backing has come from both sides of the debate, with one-quarter of leave voters in favour of having another referendum on the final deal.

* not a dig at their intellect 😉

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll

UK growth stronger than expected, again

You don’t have to rely on my predictions, you can ask 4 Economists and get 5 different answers

You Remainers are going to have to skip the “economic disaster” line of argument as it’s hasn’t happened and it’s not going to happen, even under a WTO scenario. Even Cameron has eaten humble pie and admitted to Mittal he was wrong with the doom and gloom

So… worse that if we'd voted to remain… but could be even worse… what a win.

I dont disagree that camerons doom and gloom as overstated to the point of just being daft scaremongering
I also agree there is enough there for either side to say see I told you [Growth was the slowest since 2012 last year and B of E saying we are not growing as fast as the others]
The doom and gloom merchants are as detached as the everything is positive merchants who rejoice at weak good news.

Jambas there was a certain irony that the gdp data today beat expectations by the samr HUGE amount as the downgrade in Kelvin’s IMF graph above!!

HUGE I tell you

been a good week all in all. Finally seeing some sense coming out of some Europeans, the united front cracking and even some vaguely sensible stuff on the financial services debate

.

The downgrade was on already poor future growth predictions, despite upgrades to all our trading partners. Not sure what your other nonsense is about. Keep it vague THM.

At least they had one to crack, unlike ours 😉

Every day another cabinet member has to be told off and you want to focus on their lack of unity. It far far superior to our unity, which is not even superficial.

You can repeat it twice if you like - but if you don’t understand business cycles and their timing it won’t matter one jot

any chance of a graph showing how big the upgrade was. You can even use the same scale

UK growth stronger than expected, again

Some companies cashing in, the rich getting richer is only one way to look at growth.

I'd look at the health care crisis, the homeless crisis, the social care crisis, the stalled state infrastructure project crisis, the affordable housing crisis, the lack of police on the street crisis.

We are literally becoming a 3rd world country.

But some stocks are up, so that's growth?

Fastest to slowest growing nation in G7 since the vote, even with the low £, average family >£600 worse off thanks to inflation.....

Yeah it's an economic miracle, just because it didn't live up to austerity Osbournes bonkers predictions, doesn't make it any less batshit.

On the plus side the Tories have been exposed as utterly incompetent, barely a week can pass without Mogg, or Johnson etc undermining May and Davis' performance at the Brexit select committees are a regular & hilarious expose of how clueless Brexiters are about, well ....... Brexit!

literally

In the literal sense?

literal as your posts THM 😉

Crazed Marxist Paul Johnson of the IFS at it again…

"All economists, with one or two very ideologically aligned exceptions, all economists take the view that from an economic point of view Brexit is going to be damaging."

https://amp.uk.businessinsider.com/ifs-director-paul-johnson-brexit-is-going-to-be-damaging-2018-1

Still, let's get the flags out if the damage can be limited… a price worth paying for… oh, I forget… something about Syrians.

You really are getting yourself in a terrible tizz

i think people get the point about the -ve impact, you really don’t need to keep dressing it up as something it isn’t. Any chance of the comparative graphs - size of IMF downgrade vs yesterday’s upgrade so we can see the huge-er?

Johnson is normally good with his figures so surpised by him saying “one or two” when that is “litteraly” wrong

But his actual comments are merely common sense

What Brexit is essentially about is making trade more difficult with our nearest, biggest and richest neighbour. [agreed]

"That in the end, that is the economics of Brexit. We are withdrawing from a Single Market, presumably, and withdrawing from a customs union, presumably, and that just has to make us worse off. [agreed]

"How much worse off we don't know. It might be a relatively small amount. Hopefully a good deal less traumatic than the [2008] financial crisis."[agreed]

Igm - agreed, the forum is basically screwed now.

new forum doing my head.