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[url= https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09hx36k/natural-world-20172018-8-attenborough-and-the-empire-of-the-ants ]More pro EU propaganda from the bbc[/url] 😉 🙂
You are suggesting that Brexit can be better that what we already have. Genuinely, how do you think it can be positive development?
Well we’re getting ‘renewed confidence and pride’ whatever that means.
Im loving the little Englander mindset of the Tories right now, can't blame Adonis for ditching this bunch of clowns!
And it was no labour peer that said May, Davis & co handling of Brexit
"have provided a case study of grotesque uselessness"
schoolchildren will shake their heads in disbelief that such characters could have had leading roles in government
THM , I'll take a roughly how much figure.
Do you think it will be less?
Aadapting and leading not following
Oxymoron
Comes down to choices that everyone can make.
Jesus stop with this canard will you
THM
do you not acknowledge that some businesses cannot 'adapt' even if they wanted to, zippyk's business sounding like a case in point. Most of my clients are hill farmer's - sheep and store cattle - they cannot 'adapt' as their businesses are already cut to the bone. You seem to demonstrate a breath-taking lack of empathy - what might fit the banking sector (I assume that's your line of business) cannot be applied across the board. Saying that it
just sounds a little hollow.Comes down to choices that everyone can make.
a roughly how much figure
More.. everything will cost more.. my guess about 20%
Just out of curiosity how has trade been?
Have you noticed a slow down in the last 6 months?
I work on the high street and have noticed a real slow down in trade..
luckily Im leaving retail in the next few months otherwise id be very concerned....
ZK
Let's take it step by step
What is happening to cocoa yields in Ivory Coast and Ghana?
Perditus - Brexshit itself is a negative. That's a known known. But negatives happen all the time and people, companies and economies always adapt and become stronger as a result. When you fail on a bit of a trail, what happens? Do you learn from what you did wrong and adapt and become a better rider? Or do you pack in riding and moan about it.
We have already had to think about our activities, our clients and target market segments, how we service them and how we need to adapt. From that there have been a number of positive developments. That's how it works
Edit for cross post: any business that cannot adapt to a changing environment is always vulnerable - Brexhsit or no Brexshit. If you are a price taker and have no means to adjust any of your other value drivers then you are screwed. Brexshit makes no odds. That's just a poor business model that is unlikely to be sustainable in any environment
Your example is another case in point. The plight of sheep farming extends well becons brexshit
Just a rough number.
If it's £10 now and we leave tomorrow what extra taxes will I pay?
What I pay is fixed for a year so how the harvest goes is not applicable.
Do you learn from what you did wrong and adapt and become a better rider? Or do you pack in riding and moan about it
Nope you push back up the trail and ride it again until you nail it
2nd referendum it is then !
No the trail hasn't changed - you adopt and move on.
ZK - IIRC you are Midlands based. A few weeks ago your issues didn't spark some curiosity in me and I started to do some analysis. I noticed that the U of Birmingham had done some work for some industry body (can't recall the name) from both a legal and economic perepsctive. They may have some far better data. I will try and find the link again.
FWIW, the demand for chocolate is relativelay price inelastic, so you might be surprised
I decided I wasn't able to adjust any of my value drivers and bought a gravel bike!
the demand for chocolate is relativelay price inelastic
This is a fair and reasonable point.
The thing I’d want to cross-check is how demand responds to disposable income (and you may actually be pleasantly surprised - the affordable luxury niche can actually have a reverse response) because forecasts are still for real earnings to fall (probably with low level nominal rises).
But what additional taxes will need to be paid on the imported chocolate was the question, no?
This is a report in how Montezumas have responded and adjusted
Another business leading and adapting 😉
That's about what has happened because of the vote, not what will happen when we leave, no?
Oh… Montezuma are pinning their hopes on increasing sales to rEU countries… what additional taxes should they be planning/adapting (not leading) for?
leading and adapting
Still oxymoronic. You either lead or adapt. Those who lead cause others to adapt.
What happens when we leave depend on the nature of the deal we make to allow access to the single market. Hence my impatience to get on with that rather than living in the past.
Until then, you can only deal with scearnios which while interesting is of limited practical value
IMO! The price of coca itself is likely to a bigger factor but then again I'm not in the chocolate industry. ZK will know the answers and will have planned given that it's his livelihood at stake
I still would like a number.
That article says its going up. We know that as we've already had one price increase.
Let's say we leave with no deal and go on the WTO.
What increase will that mean?
Of course it might go down.
No, leaders apart before anyone else and remain leaders. It's called innovation 😉
(excuse pun and lack of reply to you-know-what. Intrigued too by Prof bit....)
Hence my impatience to get on with that rather than living in the past.
Yup, what exactly have the government been doing for 18 months, and why have they only started talking about this amongst themselves now? Very odd. All the "we can't let you know what our plan is because then the EU will know it" while not working on a plan, is a dereliction of duty.
We know the reason. A single, formed, replacement for EU membership does not have support across the cabinet, never mind the country.
I'm trying to plan but if I don't know the costs it's very difficult.
Costs go up all the time but if I have to put my prices up 25% overnight things will be very difficult for me.
Many business would like less uncertainty - your business has a number of difficult to forecasts inputs: the price of coca and all the many variables there, exchange rates (including cross rates), etc
One thing for certain, the longer it takes to make progress the longer you will have to live with uncertainty. But you are not unique there
Why 25%?
If your costs go up 25% overnight and you have no way to compensate then your business is in deep trouble. How important is the UK market to Belgium exporters? How would they react? If not very, then you have a very big problem
A simple I don't know would have done.
No one knows and I'm sure I'm way down the list of this governments priorities.
Would you start a business not knowing what your numbers are?
Why 25%? It's a random figure which is as accurate as anyone knows.
It's all going to be fine.
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42523607 ]Britons will feel pride in 2018, says Theresa May[/url]
No
(not that you even truly "know" your numbers)
So the Montezuma model increase prices for British people , don't expand in the UK (less employment for British people) try to send your nice things to Europe instead of letting British people have nice things.
Surely the wise adaptation to this changing environment is to continue to fight the proposed negative change by placing pressure on our elected representatives and arguing with the minority who still support Brexit?
You can do both, of course. Adapt with all the many possible results of Brexit in mind, and argue for a more sensible path to be taken.
Well on the other side of the equation UK exports of chocolate are doing well. Swings and roundabouts isn't it. So the wise reaction is to adapt.
Adapting is not innovativing, THM.
Two very different things.
Innovating may allow you to adapt but that’s different.
Nor is adapting first leading. It’s still reactive.
Leading sets the agenda. Adapting responds to it.
If can be - leaders do that for sure.
So the wise reaction is to adapt.
😉
Of course you could potentially argue that Tesla are leading change in EVs, even that they are innovative. But they are not adapting - they are seeking to make others adapt. Ultimately I suspect they will fail spectacularly, but others will adapt into the space they have created.
"Well on the other side of the equation UK exports of chocolate are doing well. "
It may not be in your briefing papers but the UK does not grow chocolate , so as our economy weakens (your prediction) UK importation costs will rise. Any deal negotiated for exports will only be as good as current or worse so inevitably our exports will be at a disadvantage in Europe which is likely to remain our best market for chocolate. So maybe swings and roundabouts today but it's a big slide tomorrow.
But they are not adapting - they are seeking to make others adapt.
Surely that's the role of government though?
I hope not mol.
To play devil's advocate … you could argue Tate&Lyle have a hand in leading at least part of government as regards Brexit.
Anyway… I would still like to see a plan… what do our government want to replace EU membership with…? When do they get back to arguing about that amongst themselves? Next week?
I hope not mol.
What? You've lost me.
I was talking about the EV policy decision. The government decides the policy and the manufacturers have to adapt. I think this is a rare good move from the government. I wonder if it would have happened without the EU air quality regs? 😉
what do our government want to replace EU membership with…?
Well since no-one knows, that's why a second referendum is the only logical step. But that would be difficult and damaging to the UK's prospects anyway.
So THM, since you are not in favour of a second referendum - why is it mandatory to respect the 'will of the people' for one difficult and potentially damaging decision, but not for another?
Chocolate… uk exporters using exports to the rEU to balance their businesses… we've covered that THM. Now… what new barriers and tariffs should they be planning for?
Playing devil's advocate again… UK EV policy was very much led by the manufacturers, who had already announced their own plans (I suppose you could say they were following what other governments abroad have indicated they will do, maybe).
You could have looked forward to better chocolate sales to Japan as my clients could have done with Welsh beef.
The published info on the Japan/EU trade agreement makes a fascinating read especially as it has been concluded post art 50 - the prospect of a UKless EU clearly hasn't worried the Japanese.
[quote=teamhurtmore ]they should stop and listen to why people voted the way they did and think about it.
😆 - have you ever tried stopping and listening? It's been mentioned on here numerous times, a significant proportion of those who voted Leave did so:
a) because of things which membership of the EU makes no difference to
b) because they don't like all the foreigners here from non EU countries
c) because they like the idea of an extra £350m a week for the NHS (or some other thing they were lied to about)
d) as a protest vote (which they regretted the morning after)
If you discounted the votes of all those who voted for something they're not going to get there would have been a significant majority for Remain even at the time.
Oh was that all?
Bloody thickos....