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That doesn’t add up at all.
I have already explained my thinking, care to elaborate on yours?
Frankly it is a disgrace that labour are allowing this con job, on those they are meant to represent, to continue unchallenged. Especially when it is so easy to challenge, it is either sheer incompetence or deliberate, but either way it is a dereliction of labour principles.
You've just summed up my feelings about Labour in three lines, MSP.
as you are just making it up
I'm really not. The big unanswered question from the EU elections was whether the labour swing to the remain parties would persist in a general election, or if the labour remainers would come back to ensure the brexit party was defeated? Whilst this hasn't fully answered that, it's a big indicator that the latter is the case. And why wouldn't it be? Seeing as the remain vote is largely based in the educated middle classes, people who are more likely to vote with their heads than their hearts, it stands to reason that they're not going to vote in a way which ensures the brexit party wins.
Frankly it is a disgrace that labour are allowing this con job, on those they are meant to represent, to continue unchallenged.
Couple of points, firstly labour policy may be unpopular, but it's not a con job. It's a perfectly reasonable position to take the middle ground and attempt to unite people around issues which aren't brexit. Secondly, of all single issue policies that any political party has adopted, I know of none other which has been challenged and tested as much as labour's policy on brexit. It's become a national obsession, to the detriment of everything else. At least it has among those who are politically engaged, however out in the real world, most people don't care about the minutiae of policy and will continue voting on broad bush issues as they always have.
It's true that in FPTP voting, many "remain" people will return to Labour to defeat right wing candidates, despite Labour's Brexit policy.
But, why wouldn't "leave" Labour voters return to Labour to defeat right wing candidates, if it was staunchly against Brexit but for left wing policies?
Also, Labour needs more voters, not just to win back those of us that voted for them in 2017. How does it win over previously Conservative voters shocked at what their "party of business" has become? How does it win over people who voted LibDem in the last few elections? Any plans for winning seats off the SNP, as England drags Scotland out with it? How about all those new voters that need something to grab them and bring them into the voting booth?
[ this Leave/Remain split is nonsense by the way… plenty of people who voted Leave want the current shit show stopped, and plenty of people who voted Remain now think we must carry on with the boondoggle … just put forward the policy you think is best for Britain ]
So labour should not attempt to represent the working class who voted for brexit? simply abandom them to others? 30+% of labour MPs even tho remainers by and large donot think the party shoud abandomn the millions of brexit voting labour voters
They should not abandon the working class, no, but they are, by doubling down on the "jobs first Brexit" bullshit, while Brexit continues to result in the loss of higher paid working class jobs.
dazh
Subscriber
A very significant win for labour, and a sign that they can’t abandon leave voters in these marginals. In the end it shows that in these seats their remain voters will ultimately bite the bullet and vote tactically to prevent the Brexit party winning. They would have lost this if they had swung fully behind a stop brexit message.
They scraped it by 700 votes.
It was a 60% leave seat, the majority of labour voters (nationally at least) backed remain, labour saw an almost 20% fall in vote share
If the Tories were half way competent with Brexit, tbp wouldn't exist & Labour would be in big trouble.
This is a condemnation of the Tories rather than a. Endorsement of labours Brexit strategy.
labour are backing the working class by 'running down' skilled manufacturing ?
Labour should've become the remain party once jlr/nissan etc started announcing job losses late last year, from that point on they've had no excuses.
They've been hammered in the last 2 national elections & seen a 17% vote drop in this local
Their strategy isn't working electorally & its doing nothing to protect jobs.
All this is mute anyway… if we have a snap General Election before we Leave, Labour will fall behind offering some way for "the people" to speak again about Brexit. The momentum behind that will increase once we have a new Tory Leader and another Brexit deadline whooshes over the country's head. It's just the time being wasted right now, when the Tories are on the ropes, that's so frustrating.
They scraped it by 700 votes.
It's significant not for the size of the majority (which has slightly increase btw), but for the fact that they won at all when the ominous signs from the EU elections were that they would lose on account of remainers deserting them for the libdems and greens. They did lose some to the libdems it appears, but not enough to lose the seat.
The euros indicated that the vote of both main parties suffered equally. This byelection suggests that in a general election much of the labour vote will come back whereas the tories won't. Difficult to tell from one byelection of course but in the end this will come down to how much of the vote share the main parties will lose, and at the moment it looks like the tories will lose a lot more than labour.
All this is mute anyway
Hang on, you've spent the last few weeks saying with some certainty that labour was going to lose it's remain vote to the libdems and the greens if it didn't swing behind a stop brexit policy. The EU elections supported that and you and others weren't exactly shy about pointing that out. Yet now there is evidence in the other direction, you say it's not important?
They scraped it by 700 votes.
They scraped it by 607 votes in 2017. So they increased their majority, despite their MP leaving in disgrace, in one of the strongest Leave areas in the whole country.
Yet now there is evidence in the other direction, you say it’s not important?
It's important, and maddening, and politically damaging, that Corbyn and his advisors will have to be dragged kicking and screaming towards the policy… and sickening that people still think this is because they are being politically smart by trying to play both sides, when it seems obvious that it is simply because they oppose that policy and want Brexit to happen.
Edit - I think I missunderstood your post - the by-election result isn't unimportant, and I'm not dismissing it, and I think that much of your analysis is correct (for this seat and some others like it, that is a 17% fall in Labour share of the vote could still win them this kind of Brexit Party target seat as the Conservatives lose an even greater share). I was saying that all this arguing about the Labour party's position is likely to be a waste of our time, as it will most likely move to fully supporting a referendum including a remain option, if we have a snap election.
It’s significant not for the size of the majority (which has slightly increase btw), but for the fact that they won at all when the ominous signs from the EU elections were that they would lose on account of remainers deserting them for the libdems and greens. They did lose some to the libdems it appears, but not enough to lose the seat.
The euros indicated that the vote of both main parties suffered equally. This byelection suggests that in a general election much of the labour vote will come back whereas the tories won’t. Difficult to tell from one byelection of course but in the end this will come down to how much of the vote share the main parties will lose, and at the moment it looks like the tories will lose a lot more than labour.
Counting on the collapse of the Tories isnt a strategy
at the moment its a 3 way fight between Labour, a party with no manifesto & a party with no leader!
Labour should be romping home, instead they are losing vote share
if TBP or the Tories were to sort themselves out, it will be another wasted 4 years of opposition for them
It's hard to argue against Kimbers post up there ^^^.
Labour should be ahead of the tories and are wasting the greatest opportunity in a lifetime to put some daylight between them and the tories.
Nonetheless, well done Labour. I expected TBP to romp home in Peterborough. The result has got Brexiteers in quite a froth this morning, seeing as most Brexiteers were expecting a sizeable majority.
Bearing in mind the low turnout actually increasing their majority is impressive.
I'm just happy the Brexit Party didn't get in.
I bet NF is really hacked off today 🙂 ha ha.
The ford plant closure is the perfect opportunity for Labour to move it's position on brexit now. It can say 'the current fiasco isn't providing a 'jobs first brexit' therefore we advocate Norway style future trading and a vote on the presented deal' job done.
Brexit party in "totally not racist at all" shocker.
https://scramnews.com/brexit-party-insider-peterborough-byelection-loss-****stani-vote
Is the opposition (Labour supposedly) able/allowed to call a no confidence & push things towards a general election, or does the current Tory government have to initiate it?
Assuming parliament is sitting, the official opposition can call a no confidence vote… they'd need 6 Conservative/DUP MPs to back it (or 11 abstain) and every single other MP to back it (less likely than you'd at first expect). Realistically, you'd need 30 or more Conservatives to abstain.
[ don't go nuts if my numbers are one or two out ]
Wanting a general election is not a policy … the opposition should always be trying to get into power … but then, what policy would Labour enact as regards Brexit if it wins a general election?!? Around and round again we go again… he'll have to shift to where most of the rest of the party is eventually, no?
Tick. Tock.
Thanks kelvin, so it still needs overall numbers to see it through. binners, that's what prompted my post. It was just that I recalled months ago some other party saying it was down to the official opposition to get the ball rolling.
Yeah, and, realistically, plenty of the independents in parliament would block a no confidence vote, hence needing so many Conservatives/DUP to withdraw their support for the government, despite having a majority of only about 10. Might happen if no deal is upon us, but I seriously doubt it.
Corbyns daily demands for a general election are like me demanding world peace. Utterly pointless.
What it has led to is the Tory’s planning some extremely dodgy, constitutionally-dubious political chicanery to make sure it doesn’t happen, even once they’ve decided which unhinged Brexiteer they’re going to shoe-horn into number 10
The Brexiteers total contempt for democracy really is getting pretty scary
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1136397276593643520?s=21
The Brexiteers total contempt for democracy really is getting pretty scary
That's probably the most ironic statement I've ever read. (contextually you don't mean voters perhaps?)
(p.s I seee your semi-normal Tory example Rory Stewart is wanting to bring in National Citizens Service for young people - you know those without a decent future, funding and opportunity etc... But yeah you keep going on about Magic Grandad.)
It looks like Labour with Jeremy Corbyn will gain from the fight between Conservative & Brexit Party if the pattern continues like those at Peterborough.
If the pattern continues then Corbyn will be next PM after the next GE, then you will have Labour in charge of Brexit or No-Brexit ... good luck to them.
p/s: I just noticed the term "magic grandad" so funny 🤣
Thing is that actually we are at war.
One hopes it is, and remains, a cold war, especially at its conclusion, but it is a war nonetheless.
The reason that it is a War lies in the starting positions of the two principal belligerents -
House of YorkLeave - No Deal, No Problem, **** the EU
House of LancasterRemain - Remain unto the breach, dear Friends.
This is a Cousin's War that has yet to reach a body count above the one in Batley & Spen, and would do well to remain as civilised.
But let's not kid ourselves that there is a middle ground now.
There is momentum on either side, regardless of the inertia in the middle - there is one side or the other - so which is it?
-
Latest yougov poll has Theresa May being more popular than Corbyn. And that's after she has resigned!
Thing is that actually we are at war.
No, we're really not. The obsessive on both sides of this issue would like there to be one, the rest of us want it sorted one way or the other so we can think about other things.
But let’s not kid ourselves that there is a middle ground now.
Evidence for that?
the rest of us want it sorted one way or the other so we can think about other things
Agreed. That's probably more than half the country falling under that description. Now… how to sort it…?
Woman on the radio yesterday saying that she voted Brexit party because Theresa May was rubbish.
a) She's resigned, so that's not much of an argument, and
b) Farage is a total unknown.
'kin hell can you imagine if Corbyn had taken cocaine? Go on Rory you tell him he's a good lad for it.
It's apparently refreshing honesty, and opens up debate.
Go **** yourselves.
Latest yougov poll has Theresa May being more popular than Corbyn. And that’s after she has resigned!
Just looked at the detail on those stats. So nearly all Tories, and Brexit party supports don't like Corbyn.
That's why.
And then look again further down the list. Leavers too.
the rest of us want it sorted one way or the other so we can think about other things
Well your gonna be disappointed; f we leave it's a decade or more of divisive all consuming negotiations as we try to replace what we are tearing up
If we stay you'll have farage shrieking 'betrayal' for the next decade
You’ll still get the outraged man-frog shrieking if we leave with a deal so I’d be prepared to put up with it if it meant we stay in.
Farage has sent letters to senior tories demanding a say in negociations.
Wait, what? His only policy is hard WTO brexit... What's there to negociate?
Also (stolen from another forum
Isn't this an EU MEP meddling in affairs of the British government. The very thing Nigel is campaigning against ?
Farage has sent letters to senior tories demanding a say in negociations.
Would the lazy ****er turn up?
Would the lazy **** turn up?
Maybe once or twice for a photo opportunity/video rant which can be stuck on youtube.
You can read the letter here..
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1136954123939700736/photo/2
He really is spectacularly deluded! There is no negotiation possible now. Ask for one and the first thing they will say is NI backstop? No? then on yer bike son and there is also no negotiation for a hard leave.
Some wonderful responses to the tweet.
In other news Boris Johnson tweets "Our oceans are in real trouble. 90% of big fish have gone. As PM I will take on the lawlessness of the high seas, end the scourge of plastic pollution & honour in full our commitment to protect 4m KM2 of oceans in our beautiful overseas territories".
Just like that eh Boris?
Is he going to ensure world peace shortly after sorting that out?
F*ck me give the guy a break! He's just had a very stressfull court case to contend with and so is letting his tousled hair down and have a bit of a skunk,charlie and champers sesh.Save the seas,world peace ,may even apologise for his scousers comments ,anything is possible.
If he gets deselected, what does that actually mean? Does he have to stand down immediately?
No.
Does he have to stand down immediately?
Nope. Even if someone is thrown out of a party entirely they can still remain as an MP they would just be an independent.
For the tories the no confidence is a starting point towards making the MP have to stand as a candidate against other potential candidates as opposed to being automatically renominated.
In theory they could still stand anyway as an independent.
His constituency was 54% remain too
but the membership (+ a few UKIP infiltrators) are hard right brexiteers to the core
So, candidates to be Tory PM happy to talk about keeping parliament closed to "protect democracy", and the Labour leadership team trying to sideline their MPs who talk about the public having a vote and stopping Brexit. What a mess. Thanks Dave.
Fun, fun, fun…
https://twitter.com/brexit/status/1137600538437193728?s=21
It's what we voted for… etc.
No, we’re really not. The obsessive on both sides of this issue would like there to be one, the rest of us want it sorted one way or the other so we can think about other things.
"But let’s not kid ourselves that there is a middle ground now."
Evidence for that?
You are probably right that a 'war' is not quite the right way to characterise it, but I genuinely think it has gone beyond a reasonable compromise, beyond a ' middle ground'.
As much as 'the rest of' anyone might want an end to it, there really isn't one in sight for the intermediate future. The 'Deal' that has thus far been negotiated with the EU, the 'easiest in history' lest we forget, isn't even one - just an agreement to work towards one at sometime in the nearest future. And even this has got as much traction as a bald rear tyre on the wet pebbles of Cardiac Hill, just as you are already beginning to flag.
So whatever is to come next will come up against the rock of a 'no deal' and the hard place of the 'WA'. The former being completely unacceptable to anyone with a brain, and the latter just as unacceptable to anyone who makes any kind of comparison with the deal we already have.
I have no evidence for that beyond it being pretty much self evident. If, as you surmise, there is a large bulge in the normally distributed middle that just wants us to get on with leaving, is it not just as likely they'll be equally sanguine about staying?
is it not just as likely they’ll be equally sanguine about staying?
Apparently it is. I know the more enlightened among us scoff at polling data these days, but:
Yeah, it's just polling data… but in there is reinforcement of the key points made again and again in this thread…
…support for the Brexit Party is higher among financially comfortable voters — adding to previous research showing that support for no-deal is also higher in that group.
Brexit is overwhelming supported by those financially positioned to shield themselves from the effects. It is not the project of the workers living pay cheque to pay cheque, it is the boondoggle of those who have no genuine empathy for people living that kind of a life.
…whichever way the government chooses to leave the EU will end up making a large number of Leavers unhappy.
Again and again posters have pointed out that no single Brexit is preferred to keeping EU membership, and any single Brexit will be letting down 2016 Leave voters just as much as 2016 Remain voters. Delivering the "wrong Brexit" will simply feed a betrayal narrative, as those who voted Leave in 2016 see something delivered that is far from whichever version of Brexit they personally feel they were sold.
…among people who voted Labour in 2017, 72 per cent of Remainers would mind “a lot” about leaving the EU, whereas only 25 per cent of Labour Leavers mind “a lot” about Remaining.
Labour need to wake up. Not only did its support at the last general election come overwhelmingly from people what voted to Remain in 2016, but those that did vote Leave in 2016 are not nearly as wedded to Brexit as the media & politicians with a particular narrative to push would have you think.
As these headlines roll in, it helps to remember that this was all totally unnecessary. An issue that no one cared about apart from some Tory backbenchers and Robert Kilroy-Silk. A referendum to unite the Conservative Party. And now the ****ers are falling over each other to see who can destroy the country the hardest.
https://amp.ft.com/content/93c681ca-7c9c-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560?__twitter_impression=true
An issue that no one cared about apart from some Tory backbenchers and Robert Kilroy-Silk.
And Jeremy Corbyn.
An issue that no one cared about
To me this the worst part of it all as now it seems to be a big issue for people who had no interest in or cared about before 2016. Perspective needs to be brought back to them but too late now, it really doesn't matter to most people and how their lives are led whether the UK is in the EU or not.
A referendum to unite the Conservative Party.
It has to rank as the single biggest purely political miscalculation made by a serving prime minister since the second world war, at least.
Eden/Suez 1956 and Blair/Iraq 2003 are two 'foreign policy' ones that also stand out, but the amount of damage done by Brexit is all so unnecessary and virtually unbelievable.
Call me Dave was meant to be the ultimate embodiment of the smooth PR man - yet his fundamental insecurity led directly to this point. Sure the Daily Mail banged away for decades and people believed it, but until early 2016 it just wasn't a real issue for most people on either side of the argument.
It was a question that should never have been asked in the first place.
Perspective needs to be brought back to them but too late now…
It may be too late for the Tory party.
It may be too late for those voting for the Brexit Party.
It may be too late for those who have already had their "proper job" in manufacturing dissolved, and are now in a McJob.
It's not too late for the UK as a whole… we can stop throwing money, jobs and family lives at this boondoggle and stop it before we leave. Any politician not actively working towards that end is part of the problem.
Yes, irreparable damage is already occurring, but any method of leaving the EU will just cause more damage.
…it really doesn’t matter to most people and how their lives are led whether the UK is in the EU or not.
It doesn't "matter" to them because people keep telling them that we can Leave with some kind of "jobs first" or "only considerable upsides" arrangement in place.
So labour have started the process to get a binding motion through parliament to prevent no deal giving lie to the false narrative on here that no deal is what Corbyn wants.
If the rest of Labour push Corbyn into line before October, you're just going to say "see, his resistance was just a clever ruse", aren't you? Those MPs that are most fully behind his leadership are now openly critizing his lack of action on Brexit… he's in the corner… and he either wakes up, or moves over.
And who said he wants "no deal"? He's pushed for a Hard Brexit, not "no deal"… although "some" have conflated the two… I don't think he wants no deal… he wants a steady transition to being outside the Single Market without FoM, does he not?
Boris Johnson 5/7
Jeremy Hunt 5/1
Andrea Leadsom 8/1
Michael Gove 18/1
Rory Stewart 33/1
Dominic Raab 37/1
Sajid Javid 37/1
Matthew Hancock 129/1
Esther McVey 169/1
Mark Harper 519/1
Words fail.
Words fail.
That line up looks like the end of Conservative party in the next GE.
The poisoned chalice will pass on to the next main party I guess ...
All hail JC as the future PM after the next GE!
Magic grandad is going to perform his magic. 👏 👍
Not a chance
All of them, apart from Rory Stewart, are living in some fantasy world and sounding increasingly unhinged as they cozy up to the headbangers of the ERG
Listening to Andrea Leadsom read out what she’s going to renegotiate with the E.U. is like listening to a 3 year old girl read some fantastical letter to Santa
A pony
... and s princesses castle in the clouds
... and a pet flamingo..
... and...
Nothing to add, but this sentence had me laughing out loud
...the urgent reappraisal of May has now begun. As the Tory candidates were launching their campaigns yesterday, journalist John Rentoul tweeted that May ''wasn't that bad, actually, was she?''. Only the answer is yes, John. Yes she emphatically was. Just because the Tory leadership candidates have, in the space of two weeks, shifted the Overton window of mediocrity beyond even the most credible outer limit of the Dunning-Kruger effect...
All of them, apart from Rory Stewart, are living in some fantasy world and sounding increasingly unhinged as they cozy up to the headbangers of the ERG.
The trouble is Rory Stewart is just another public school oxbridge tory, gifted sucsess by status and family contacts, but believes that what separates him from those his supported policies victimises is his ability, not realising that the incredible opportunities he has are available to only a select lucky few.
His voting record would have put him on the right wing of the party just a few years ago, but so extreme has the political landscape been skewed, he now looks like a reasonable candidate. If he did win the party leadership, I also think he would win a general election by a landslide.
Rory Stewart
Saving Britain’s local post offices by keeping government subsidies going and making them more ‘entrepreneurial’;
Abolishing ‘offensive’ hospital parking charges;
Taking on firms such as Amazon in a bid to save the high streets.
Stripping honours from people like Sir Philip Green;
Improving sluggish broadband speeds for rural areas.
I guess bus routes had already been taken.
It shows how much the politics of this country has been corrupted beyond all recognition.
All the other candidates are absolute nutters who’s slavish adherence to an insane right wing ideology is going to cause catastrophic economic and social damage
Given the present collective madness of the Tory Party, Rory Stewart hasn’t got a hope. Not a prayer! It’s like they’ve all signed some mad suicide pact, but they’ve signed the rest of us up to it too
And as to the worst ever PM? And who’s fault this absolute debacle is? Credit where it’s due...
All of them, apart from Rory Stewart, are living in some fantasy world and sounding increasingly unhinged as they cozy up to the headbangers of the ERG.
Well. That didn't last long did it? Tory Stewart will vote with the ERG to thwart attempts by parliament to rule out a No Deal Brexit. Can't say I'm surprised.
Well, bang goes the "Rory the Reasonable Tory" smokescreen… he won't help parliament put a block on no deal… because why would Tory MPs who want to stop no deal support him then? They'd be free to pick any of the other candidates, safe in the knowledge that their no deal tub thumbing will come to nothing. He wants to use Brexit to gain power, just like… well… you can list them.
[ yes, the other candidates are worse ]
A line I've seen across 4 different papers in the last few days, "Tory moderate Amber Rudd". Funny old world.
binners
Subscriber
All of them, apart from Rory Stewart, are living in some fantasy world
He's living in the real world but he's running as a fantasy Rory Stewart not the real one.
Ironic isn't it that when the EU said 'don't waste this extension', they probably didn't mean for the Tory party to install a hardline ERG headbanger as PM who will then hit the accelerator to plunge us off the no deal cliff on October the 31st. And for the 'opposition' such as it is, to continue to sit, mute, on the fence and watch on impotently while they do.
I bet they're looking at this shitshow and now thinking they can't wait to see the back of us, and this really is the end of the line this time. And who can blame them?
Does anyone have the remotest hope of any other option than that? Because as it looks at the moment, it'd take a pretty remarkable chain of events to prevent it.
Whoever thought Rory Stewart was reasonable?
He's just another right winger with a calm mannerism.
Class A tit.
And for the ‘opposition’ such as it is, to continue to sit, mute, on the fence and watch on impotently while they do.
Including your new man-crush Rory Stewart - the man who makes Jeremy Corbyn look like David Gandy.
Whoever thought Rory Stewart was reasonable?
I guess the people who got taken in by him. It is pretty simple, they are all Tories and they are all trying to appease the members (with average age of 80). Rory has even gone so far as mentioning national service which should get them all excited seeing as they think it is still 1942 and don't realise the next war will be cyber based and not fought with armies.
Even if a tory comes across as seemingly okay a quick look at their voting record will soon show them voting against human rights, against sexual equality, against welfare and for things such as hunting etc, etc,.
Rory Stewart only looks moderate because the rest of them are such headbangers. It is a Tory leadership contest after all and it's one being carried out in the shadow of farage, who's driving them further right
He's also a rare thing from either party- an MP that's willing to be honest about our Brexit options!
Bit sad he didn't back labours no deal motion, I can't see that it'll make much difference to his chances, tho the motion itself is still no guarantee that no deal can be stopped. There's only 1 way to do that!