[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

May just needs to placate the DUP, several key ministers, and many of her backbenchers - over the phone - mid negotiation with a team representing the interests of the biggest FTA in the world. Easy! I genuinely feel sorry for her.

I think that we’re all agreed that it’s turning into a disaster.

May and the Conservatives made a confidence and supply deal with the DUP, stopping short of a coalition that would be a red line for Sinn Fein. A coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems was out of the question, so May has been the architect of this particular cluster-blank and I hope that she’s got a contingency plan to placate the DUP.

I think that we’re all agreed that it’s turning into a disaster.

and I hope that she’s got a contingency plan to placate the DUP.

What will / can May do now? No solution on NI and still bits on the other two issues. She cannot carry parliament on any deal that is acceptable to the EU. So no trade talks, no deal. the CBI will be up in arms at no deal, I really don't see what her next move is.

The problem with avoiding "showing your hand", is that when you make your move, it can come as a surprise to the very people that you need to agree to the plan that you refused to let them see in advance… you own supposed political allies.

At some point, "the people" will want to be consulted as well… you can't play secret games forever… at some point decisions need to made, and made public. Only then can you begin to measure the support for a Brexit more specific than "Brexit means Brexit".

Didn't follow that, could you explain? Surely finalising and agreeing the NI border matter has to predate the SM/CU part?

Only if you are an EU member who wants to delay proper negotiations Cody or a remoaner who likes to make things up.

There are various forms that our future access to the single market and vv may take. Each of them have implications for the nature our our borders. So it’s all a bit silly to insist on an end solution when the question that needs to be solved has not been defined.

On the contrary PJM. We are seeing progress towards a deal - albeit slow and not straightforward - that means the disaster scenarios are becoming much less likely. Much to the chagrin of the remoaners. Hence the need for wild exaggeration

Anyone just hear Varadkar?

There’s a deal.
Ok let’s announce that.
Hello, is that Leo?
Yep, what’s up Terry?
Ah, about that deal...that bloody difficult woman in Belfast!

The alternative point of view appears to be that Varadkar or EU tried to leak a draft copy of the agreement in order to bounce May into agreeing to their wording, but she held firm.

I fail to see any benefit for May in releasing the Draft, particularly given th3 later revision seems to have been towards UK position rather than away from

Negotiations are ongoing, she can either ask the DUP just how much they want the money promised in June, or she can try to tacitly gain cross party support to overrule in the Commons. My guess is that there will be an attempt made to sweeten the DUP somehow.

Or she could jack it all in, buy a shed and write her memoirs titled “Running through fields of wheat without EU subsidy” and mark time to her retirement with a job in the charity sector.

The alternative point of view appears to be that Varadkar or EU tried to leak a draft copy of the wording in order to bounce May into their wording, but she held firm.

Yeah right. May and Varadker agreed a form of words and May tried to bounce the DUP

So May, ostensibly the PM of one of the world's leading nations with 660 Parliamentarians, agrees a major international agreement with the world's largest free trade block, and de facto goes public.

The regional special interest party with only 10 MPs yanks her chain and blocks the whole thing.

How can her position possibly be tenable?

I think if I were May I’d be doing a John Major right now. It could be her honourable way out. Call their bluff with the threat of Jezza in the background. If they vote against her, they can’t blame her.

So it’s all a bit silly to insist on an end solution when the question that needs to be solved has not been defined.

ninfan - Member
The alternative point of view appears to be that Varadkar or EU tried to leak a draft copy of the agreement in order to bounce May into agreeing to their wording, but she held firm.

Was she staunch do you think?

Nah, face it- she got a call from Foster who pulled her reins in. Plain as day. And so says Kuenssberg:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/937718845573394432

I'd have thought the alternative point of view could just as easily be equally be that swivel eyed loons in Mays teams leaked to spike the deal. Also that doesn't involve the ridiculous concept of May holding firm.

teamhurtmore - Member
Didn't follow that, could you explain? Surely finalising and agreeing the NI border matter has to predate the SM/CU part?
Only if you are an EU member who wants to delay proper negotiations

Or if you believe politics, continued peace etc trumps economics;

From RTE just now
Varadkar said he hopes an agreement can be concluded in coming days.

He said Ireland cannot progress to Phase Two of Brexit negotiations unless there are guarantees that a border will not re-emerge "under any circumstances."

So it’s all a bit silly to insist on an end solution when the question that needs to be solved has not been defined.

This more THM nonsense?

Its obvious to anyone with a few working brain cells why this has to be done first. If the UK cannot form some sort of border that works then everything else is off.

Well with a bit of luck the NI situation will scupper Brexit completely.

Interesting reading some of the top comments on the BBC piece:

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42217735 ]UK and EU fail to strike Brexit talks deal (BBC)[/url]

Lots of wild hyperbole from Leavers about the EU "blackmailing" us or being "dictators" - very little recognition that we are conducting a negotiation where compromises need to be made and the EU are in a pretty strong negotiating position.

Examples:

And if we had voted Remain ?.. The UK forced to give up the pound and join the Euro ? And finally, become part of a single state, run by Germany ?

Britain is being blackmailed by the despotic, dictatorial EU..

The EU is bankrupt, fiscally and morally!

Looks like we've paid the ransom...
One day we'll look back on this part of our history as the moment we sold our soul to appease the Liberal Left.

It's not just Remoaners that whine then 🙄

"Hence the need for wild exaggeration" 😆

You can agree a minimum border scenerio, but work towards a deal that might provide something better.

Indeed you are articulating the positions outlined in both sides’ briefing documents

They only need to get on with it then THM.

And take the DUP with them.

I probably shouldn’t be finding this funny I know, but watching the Brexies fall out and swivel in the wind is fundamentally hilarious.

TJ fortunately some people have more than just a few brain cells. Helps them understand why the opposite is true.

Remember you were arguing that everyone involved were intellectually challenged and that no progress was possible. Both proved totally wrong.

The bill solution was a master stroke of how sensible negotiators and grown ups work.

Hey Tories, remember the people you had to get into bed with after you lost the election? You should have given them more money . . . .

🙂

What a comical situation the Cons find themselves in. Everyone forgets what the DUP are like. I grew up in a West of Scotland town where their malign influence (and that of the RA) was still apparent- they'll never move.

Their red line is as follows: No Surrender, No Retreat. There's no way they'll take their base along with anything that looks or sounds like a united Ireland. They'll happily take the money, and thats about it.

This government is effectively over if this DUP S&C thing can't be revived, and if I know my Loyalists, they'll never move.

The bill solution was a master stroke of how sensible negotiators and grown ups work.

You mean paying what they asked for after months of saying we wouldn’t? We sure bamboozled them there...

Do the DUP keep the cash if they walk?

With an intractable DUP, May has to put it before Parliament and try to sell a deal to the moderates in her own party and make concessions to the opposition, or are we already past that point?

I refer to Rober Peston’s post earlier:

[i]But here is what I assume will be scaring the Prime Minister witless (it scares me, just as a bystander). She is signing up for close regulatory alignment between the UK and EU without ever having secured agreement for that from the Cabinet.[/i]

So what now? Has she just ended her own premiership?

It’s pretty clear that May has no idea what she’s dealing with in the DUP. She clearly judges them by Tory standards, ie: if the bung is big enough, there’s nothing we won’t do.

Whereas what she was asking them to do, in endorsing a ‘solution’ that would bring a United ireland a step closer, is like asking a vegan animal rights activist if they wouldn’t mind popping down to the abbatoir with a bolt gun as you fancy a big juicy steak.

May has shamelessly pandered to the idealogical nutters on her own backbenches, yet these lot are ten times worse

The fact that she couldn’t see this is yet another example, if any were needed, of how totally out of her depth she is.

Anyone who’s spent any time in NI knows full well that there’s no way on earth they’d evergo along with this! Unlike her, when they say there are red lines, they seriously bloody mean it!

I think that we’re all agreed that it’s turning into a disaster.

On the contrary, I think it's ****ing hilarious!

You mean paying what they asked for after months of saying we wouldn’t?

Making stuff up on all accounts there. There’s a well established trend here

And people complain thst the Brexshiteers told porkies !!!

jam bo - Member

The bill solution was a master stroke of how sensible negotiators and grown ups work.

You mean paying what they asked for after months of saying we wouldn’t? We sure bamboozled them there...

Thats about it. Months of saying " you can go whistle" and then making movement after movement until you arrive at the EUs minimum point. What a waste of a year. What a waste of goodwill. What sheer buffoonery

So May, ostensibly the PM of one of the world's leading nations with 660 Parliamentarians, agrees a major international agreement with the world's largest free trade block, and de facto goes public.

The regional special interest party with only 10 MPs yanks her chain and blocks the whole thing.

How can her position possibly be tenable?

Don’t forget we’ve got the EU27 to appease as well when we finally reach the end game of this.

Course this May already be stitched up behind the scenes and what are seeing is “bread and circuses” for the plebs.

Or they’re winging it.

The alternative point of view appears to be that Varadkar or EU tried to leak a draft copy of the agreement in order to bounce May into agreeing to their wording, but she held firm.

[img] [/img]

That'll be an 'alternative view' that has just been made up by ninfan and released onto the Internet to acquire the status of 'truth'.

Just in case anyone was wondering. 🙄

They’re clearly making this up on the hoof, and consulting absolutely nobody in the process

Almost as if he’s inadvertently disseminating fake news.

The only negotiation we are seeing is the different factions of the tories arguing with each other.

I'm lovin' it.

Meanwhile, here’s Donald Tusk’s take:

[i]Met with PM @theresa_may. I was ready to present draft EU27 guidelines tomorrow for #Brexit talks on transition and future. But UK and Commission asked for more time. It is now getting very tight but agreement at December #EUCO is still possible.[/i]

dannyh - actually suggested by the DUP

Making stuff up on all accounts there. There’s a well established trend here

So was Boris et al making it up when they were telling the EU to ‘go whistle’? Or was that all part of the cunning plan. As cunning as a fox, etc, etc...

Keep believing in yourself THM, no one else does.

Another reality check for May tomorrow:

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/11/24/actualidad/1511545968_513128.html

Gibralta isn't offically on the agenda (for now) but the future of 130 000 Spaniards and 300 000 Brits will be.

We have consistently argued that we will honour our financial commitments - I view Bojo as about as reliable as our very own STW tag team but much less amusing - and we have a deal that is consistent with current payments and 40-50% of the inflated figures bandied about.

I merely believe in the facts. Stick to them and you can believe in yourself. Try it....

teamhurtmore - Member

You mean paying what they asked for after months of saying we wouldn’t?

Making stuff up on all accounts there. There’s a well established trend here

Uhhh, we definitely said we'd pay nothing, and they could go whistle, as they would be so grateful for us continuing to buy their cars and cheese, rather than importing it from China.

And then in the end we gave them what they asked for.

Nope ^2

Have we mentioned Little Liam’s “we hold all the cards”?

Anyone seen anything much of him recently?

I merely believe in the facts. Stick to them and you can believe in yourself. Try it....

Nonsense - away with you, we prefer to live in the wild hyperbole that within three days of Brexit the worlds markets will be closed to U.K. trade and armed guards will stand at the Irish border preventing Tayto crisps being exchanged like bitcoin and shooting those trying to flee to the south

So in THM-world, the £20Bn offer never existed, it was always clear that the UK was going to pay £50Bn+....

....

...so why did it take so long for that to be agreed then, if it was never in doubt?

THM alt truth.