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Labour 5th in South East.
7% of the vote.
the turnout is also an indicator of the general Brexit malaise/fatigue the country is now suffering from…
Or it's just entirely normal for a non-Westminster election (sadly).
Oh, Farage gets a televised speech … no other newly elected MEP has been given that chance so far. Great.
You reckon?
This ain’t a GE, or a 2nd ref.
It’s a supposedly “meaningless” vote where the Gammons have turned out in force to send some sort of message, still not sure what it is though.
Oh yes ... come the next GE they will be trying to attract voters and they cannot afford to alienate a large number of voters if they want to be in power. 😀
Lib Dem will be the 2nd largest party in the next GE.
The question is which of the two main parties can dance well. Dance!
The Brexit Party have managed to wipe out UKIP.
And a lot of others. Just think about the fact that a party that didn't exist a couple of months ago have now won a national election. I know you guys want to look at the lib dems and greens as a sign of hope that there is a majority for remain, but sadly these results don't show that.
I enjoyed the laugh that the number of votes Stephen Yaxley Lennon received got...
And a lot of others. Just think about the fact that a party that didn’t exist a couple of months ago have now won a national election. I know you guys want to look at the lib dems and greens as a sign of hope that there is a majority for remain, but sadly these results don’t show that.
I'm worried about what they do show. And confused. Still looks to be like a motivated section of those eligible to vote (I despair at a 37% turnout) just want to see everything burn, but not for the right reasons (IMO).
Seems we are increasingly beholden to a minority who are not voting for a better future and not voting against the mistakes of the past, but seem to be just shouting at the moon.
What weirds me out the most is that a fair few of them are potentially my generation (I'm 50 next year) and I recognise absolutely nothing of their mindset. Happy to be out of step with my peers in this case.
The Brexit party vote share is just the UKIP share loss, plus a fair chunk of the Tory share loss. Farage of 2019 ousting Farage of 2014.
Oh yes … come the next GE they will be trying to attract voters and they cannot afford to alienate a large number of voters if they want to be in power. 😀
Lib Dem will be the 2nd largest party in the next GE.
The question is which of the two main parties can dance well. Dance!
Pure fantasy...
The Brexit party vote for this EU election is made up roughly 2/3rds of the existing kippers, and 1/3rd of con/lab protest voters.
I'm not sure a single issue party that's only weeks old, and has zero policies beyond Brexit (and doesn't seem to have particularly detailed policies or plans of their one key issue) is going to clean up at a GE.
I’m not sure a single issue party that’s only weeks old, and has zero policies beyond Brexit (and doesn’t seem to have particularly detailed policies or plans of their one key issue) is going to clean up at a GE.
They will release their policies later nearer to the GE.
Now is about Brexit.
I’m not sure a single issue party that’s only weeks old, and has zero policies beyond Brexit (and doesn’t seem to have particularly detailed policies or plans of their one key issue) is going to clean up at a GE.
They won't win a GE. But they could be the balance of power or even the official opposition. Imagine Farage pulling the strings behind a Boris govt, or being one election away from being PM!
They won’t win a GE. But they could be the balance of power or even the official opposition. Imagine Farage pulling the strings behind a Boris govt, or being one election away from being PM!
Even JC will dance beautifully so long as Labour will get into power.
Lib Dem will sleep with anyone that offers them power. Imagine that! Eeeuuuwww ...🤢
Even JC will dance beautifully so long as Labour will get into power.
WTF are you talking about?
A personally upsetting night for me.
Living in an apparent Brexit heartland. 50 years old and very aware that much of my generation is desperate for the UK to leave the EU. At any cost. NHS.... the younger generations hopes for the future.... Just let it all burn. All so we can say we left the EU to "take back control".
A sizable minority, well motivated to vote is pulling the UK down the rabbit hole.
I'm as annoyed at the ** that don't vote as much as those that vote for Brexit.
As some have said on here, the country might have to suffer a lot of pain and leave the EU in order to kill the fantasy of Brexit once and for all. What appallingly sad times we live in.
My God, how did we get here?
Oh yes, to make sure the Tory party didn't haemorrhage power to Farage.
The irony is f*** sickening.
They will release their policies later nearer to the GE.
Now is about Brexit.
There are no policies, nor will there be any... They're the "Brexit party" FFS the clue is very much in their name.
Did you watch Widcombe's rambling discussion with Hugh earlier? She thinks the negotiations will be reopened so the Gammons can shout their demands at Barnier...
We're headed for a no deal crash out, led by Boris while Nige eggs him on and the possibility of a "confirmatory vote" gets shouted down for being "undemocratic" and ignoring the "will of the people"... Once Brexit is done Nige has no GE powerbroking potential, the Gammons will revert back to the tories for the GE, especially if Boris no deals it...
whoever is picking up farages' bill is not going to stop at this.
thank **** I have three citizenships.
There are no policies, nor will there be any… They’re the “Brexit party” FFS the clue is very much in their name.
No need to hurry as there will be plenty of time for GE preparation.
Why worry about Brexit Party having a one liner slogan?
The main parties should be worrying about themselves with the mess they created.
Once Brexit is done Nige has no GE powerbroking potential, the Gammons will revert back to the tories for the GE, especially if Boris no deals it…
If Boris wants to become a PM for a while then he better Brexit immediately.
Get UK out of EU bureaucratic system if they want to have peace of mind.
Get us out quick so Nigel can enjoy a pint at the pub.
thank **** I have three citizenships.
Crikey ... how did you get 3 citizenships?
Crikey … how did you get 3 citizenships?
UK, Ireland and Australian. Filled in a lot of forms.
UK, Ireland and Australian. Filled in a lot of forms.
👍 👍 👍
Add together the LD, green and ChgUk votes and it comes out slightly ahead of Brexit and UKIP.
UK: 85% counted.
Remain parties: 40.4%
Hard Brexit parties: 34.9%
Conservatives/Labour: 23.2%
#EP2019 #Brexit #EuropeanElections2019 #EUelections2019 https://t.co/pF4MG8SSRM
Depends on how you look at it. If you count Lab and Con as Leave parties then that's a fairly solid pro-leave vote.
Meanwhile, in Scotland:
Pro-remain parties (SNP, LibDems, Green, Change) - 62%
Pro-leave parties (Brexit Party, Labour, Conservative, UKIP) - 37.5%
So almost no change from the referendum result.
If you count Lab and Con as Leave parties
I think they count as rabbit-caught-in-the-headlights parties.
Best ignored for the purposes of this discussion.
My God, how did we get here?
Oh yes, to make sure the Tory party didn’t haemorrhage power to Farage.
The irony is f****** sickening.
Things I take from this.
1/ the nation is sick of Brexit arguments, but not sufficiently sick to bother turning out for an indicative position taking on it. I hope that wouldn't be the case in a 2nd referendum or GE
2/ Brexit Party have not swept the board, they've basically taken over UKIP's voters and some from CON/LAB
3/ Reflecting 1, if a side should have been motivated to turn out it should have been the Brexiteers. I haven't added up but using a bit of guess work and others numbers, in a nation of 65M, 75% of whom are voting age, there's 49M voters. The Brexit parties got 35% of a 37% turn out = 25%. 1 in 4 of voting age in this country is pro hard brexit, and while I'll accept they aren't all racist gammony frothers, that scares me.
4/ Farage's previous comments that UKIP are not a one man band look rather hollow. No matter his politics, he is a bloody good politician in terms of getting airtime and his message over, he's probably the best at doing what he does. He's also the best at being what he is.....but you can add your own bit to that.
5/ Stephen Yaxley-Lennon. Hahahahahahahahaha.
Said this last night...
A long night but so far a good night for the Brexit Now Party, but not for leave overall (on votes, not MEPs, which is what would count in a third referendum).
Looks about right this morning.
Any Tory votes were as likely to be remain as leave, and probably similar with labour.
The Brexit parties got 35% of a 37% turn out = 25%
I think you over estimate. Say 13%
Hmmm, I think this is an excellent time if you have get up and go, to get up and go.
Australia is a great place to be, so long as you're not just looking for a warmer version of England. Opportunities abound, especially away from the cities.
Meanwhile in Scotland, I can see life is about to get very interesting. We're shackled to a sinking ship*, but may be able to get our lifeboat away. The real fight is about to start.
.
.
*Sorry, I mean most Scots think it's sinking. I realise that may not be the opinion of the majority of the passengers on the afterdeck of SS Titanic...
Australia, hmm. At least in the U.K. the dangerous wee beasties are only trying to destroy your country and not actually kill you.
doomanic
Australia, hmm. At least in the U.K. the dangerous wee beasties are only trying to destroy your country and not actually kill you.
Nature culls idiots in Oz.
Generally you have to be pretty stupid to get killed by our dangerous wee beasties.
The only active predator on humans is the crocodile, and you have to be denser than stupid to get taken by one of them.
Otherwise you have to be extremely unlucky (as the death stats show).
I think if your aim is to get away from racists trying to destroy their own country then maybe Australia is not the best choice.
Now the big question will be how many were turned away from the voting booths. I wonder if it would have made a significant difference.
Now the big question will be how many were turned away from the voting booths. I wonder if it would have made a significant difference.
I'd like to see some numbers but it's extremely unlikely to have made a material difference, given it wasn't FPTP. I think it was down to incompetence rather than malice, the malice came later when the "will of the people" contingent cheered it.
And I don't know what was so funny about Yaxley-Lennon's result, tens of thousands of people voted for him FFS.
Has anyone seen figures with London and/or Scotland stripped out?
I have a feeling that were it not for the moderating influence of the capital the majority vote from the rest of the country would be pro-Brexit- correct?
Hmm strong voting for parties that clearly defined their stance on Brexit. Both remain and leave. few things
1, this will encourage the next Tory PM to be a strong brexiteer.
2. Labour need to reconsider their campaign of a GE to decide. They need to become a Remain party.
3. this will make a compromise in Parliament even more difficult
My way of working out the Brexit vote is:
All of Brexit
All of UKIP
1/3 of Labour
1/2 of conservative
On that basis the result is not so very different from the referendum. The low turnout is the most disappointing part. You'd have thought remainers would have got out to vote ofr anyone clearly remain. They haven't which leads me to suspect that the apathetic majority of 63% is happy to go along with Brexit.
The main problem it seems is that most people couldn't give a ****.
It saddens me that for the first time in my life i've actually thought that Scotland leaving the UK Is a good idea. Jesus. F*** this I'm off back to NZ
The NE Brexit Party MEP from Scotland will be celebrating at home in France today. 🤷🏻♂️
Scotland hasn't been returned yet, nor has NI, when they have I imagine the percentage numbers will be more pro remain, but it will be very close still
The main problem it seems is that most people couldn’t give a ****
They need a celebrity leader to get them motivated - someone like Joe Swash or Rachel Riley. Sadly, celebrity informs public opinion for too many.
Scotland hasn’t been returned yet
Only the Western Isles results to come in and there's not enough to change any of the figures significantly. Probably less than 5,000 votes in total.
Faragists 2.0 up by 31.6% but Faragists 1.0 down by 24.2% - net swing 7.4%
Meanwhile LDs, Greens and ChUK up by 21% combined. Plus another 1.4% if you include the Scots and Welsh nationalists.
So a more polarised result than last time, but characterised by the remain vote starting to copy the leave vote and walking away from Labour and Tories.
On seats, Leavers gained 5, but remainers gained 18.
A great night for Farage, but not leave.
Also a great night for remain, but not for any one remain party.
A series of remain alliances could easily spell the end of Brexit - but can they organise?
(Note - pre the last couple of declarations - but I doubt they’ll change the flavour of the evening much)
Country now polarised completely - no chance of any sort of leave deal. I think it's down to no deal v remain - high stakes game now.
There's always the Neverexit option where the political system is indefinitely paralysed and we remain in the EU with extension after extension.
I think we could keep stringing this along for the next ten years if we can find leaders with the right level of incompetence.
🤪
Vote for me. I can at least fake incompetence quite convincingly.
Citation required
I refer you to this thread
So for the few years, remainers have been telling us how those that voted leave did not understand what they were voting for...too thick, too racist, too working class etc - I’d happily bet that a lot of remainers (at the time of the referendum) also didn’t really understand exactly what they were voting for.
But now after the wall to wall debates, most people understand the implications- so surely we should have seen a massive swing towards pro-remain parties - so remainers, what happened, how have you managed not to enlighten leavers?
For me it just goes to show that the original referendum vote was probably about right. As in it’s very close and could go either way on any given day.
And I don’t know what was so funny about Yaxley-Lennon’s result, tens of thousands of people voted for him FFS.
Even though he picked the area in which he would have the most support and has had national news coverage, he still lost his deposit.
I find it worrying how geographically spread brexit party success was. Although remain parties overall did well it looks like there's a pretty unified chunk of the country wanting brexit 🙁
Also... If we want to remain turnout needs to improve! For all the talk of significant numbers of people changing their minds etc sod all of them actually bothered to vote.
voting for.
But now after the wall to wall debates, most people understand the implications- so surely we should have seen a massive swing towards pro-remain parties – so remainers, what happened, how have you managed not to enlighten leavers?
Without taking into account remainers and leavers who voted labour and conservative, remain look stronger than leave now.
Percentage wise, the lib Dems and the Greens polled higher than the Brexit party if viewed as a remain bloc.
As others have said, what has happened is that the electorate has totally polarised.
I stand by my previous assertion that we need a no deal and it's consequences to snap people out of this stupidity.
those that voted leave did not understand what they were voting for
> checks Brexit Party manifesto <
> reads detailed critiques of their policies <
Hmm…
there’s a pretty unified chunk of the country wanting brexit
Yup, a very sizeable minority.
As in it’s very close and could go either way on any given day.
Agreed. I still think another referendum is likely to result in a Leave vote. But, whoever is in power will have to present, frame and justify their vision of Brexit to win that vote. That process is essential to democracy.
I wasn’t just trying to be an arse towards remainers with my last post - but just simply that if you ran the referendum again it would still be very close - even after all the debates
so remainers, what happened, how have you managed not to enlighten leavers?
Plenty of academic papers on how even when confronted with apparently compelling evidence, folk intelligent or otherwise don’t change their minds much.
The 10% swing to remain is quite impressive.
I do wonder what would happen if someone as determined as Farage had started a pure Remain party and named it thus, instead of the doomed, confused and shoddily put together Tingers.
People go for polarity.
Agreed. I still think another referendum is likely to result in a Leave vote. But, whoever is in power will have to present, frame and justify their vision of Brexit to win that vote. That process is essential to democracy
Yep.
But, whoever is in power will have to present, frame and justify their vision of Brexit to win that vote.
YES^
I’m hoping that eventually we’ll realise that not all leavers are racist thicko’s and not all remainers are left wing elitists
Sadly I have to admit two things, first I think Farage is correct in that if there's no Brexit come the net GE they will end up in goverment, there are too many folk that seem disillusioned and think "sod it, I'm not voting for any of them" and others like the young lads here at work who just say "I dunno what they're on about" "it makes bugger all difference" and therefore the minority of motivated leavers win.
The other is that we here in Scotland are better off out of it! #indyref2 please! I never thought I'd ever be saying that!!
Re turnout, from the interviews with the general public *shudders* a lot of them seemed to be of the opinion that ‘well were leaving, so why bother voting’. I expect that pleases NF as much as the votes he got.
The main parties should be worrying about themselves with the mess they created.
Indeed, but which way does each main party lurch to limit their loses now?
The obvious choice is for the Cons to go hard right/hard Brexit under a new leader and try to steal back their BP/UKIP voters...
Which of course leaves Labour a choice between sticking with the current indecisive middle ground position that now almost seems calculated to piss off the largest number of voters possible, or else join the push for a 2nd ref, knowing that it's very much seen as a remainer's campaign (because it kind of is). Thus putting them firmly against the outcome of the 2016 ref in the minds of many people...
But at least they'd have something to differentiate them from the Tories, and it could perhaps align with those that voted LD/Green/CHUK on Thursday, who appear to be proportionally about the same size of voting block as the Brexiteers. If they don't then I reckon Boris (come on we know its going to be Boris) has the next GE sewn up simply by following the ERG script.
The remain vs leave is not just party 1 vs party 2 is it though?
Adding together the remain/pro-European Lib Dem, Greens and SNP means they have 'won' over the brexshit party and few conservatives and labour.
So this is actually a vote to remain.
Which would be fine if we didn't have FFTP 🙁
No party needs to lurch to limit their losses they just need to put out "leave" message and be done with it now.
The surge of Farage has proved if you jump on his bandwagon your going to get a chunk of vote.
Adding together the remain/pro-European Lib Dem, Greens and SNP means they have ‘won’ over the brexshit party and few conservatives and labour.
Rubbish , you can't just go adding up the votes of lots of other party's to make up the numbers 😂🤣🤣🤣🤣
Sadly I have to admit two things, first I think Farage is correct in that if there’s no Brexit come the net GE they will end up in goverment
Expect brexit party MPs a plenty.
Doing some indendent calcs, and here are my numbers- critique my arithmetic. I've used this YouGov data as the split, where we had:
Lab Leave at 35%
Con Leave at 61%
For LD, I've assumed 100% remain now, as the manifesto went all-out on that unequivocally.
Turnout of: 16,375,149
Leave
5,244,893 (BP)
828324.35 (Lab at 35%)
921633.14 (Con at 61%)
549,149 UKIP
7,543,999 TOTAL
Remain
3,366,673 LD
1538316.65 (Lab at 65%)
2,010,328 Green
589240.86 (Con at 61%)
571,716 CHUK
590,947 SNP
163,928 PC
8,831,150 TOTAL
54% remain, 46% leave? No idea what the abstainers/non-voters wanted, of course- no real data.
54% remain, 46% leave?
Pretty much what I would estimate the result of a 2nd ref would be, maybe closer to 52/48 from 1-2 millions swings from the now dead brexiters and remain new voters. People who voted in both won't have changed their minds much as said.
54% remain, 46% leave? No idea what the abstainers/non-voters wanted, of course- no real data.
Totally ridiculous conclusion to come to. You're ignoring what's staring you in the face, which is that a party which didn't exist 6 weeks ago and who's single policy is a no deal brexit, won the election. This was a re-run of the referendum, and I'm afraid leave won again. A second referendum won't change that. Get ready for no deal, it's happening.
Totally ridiculous conclusion to come to. You’re ignoring what’s staring you in the face, which is that a party which didn’t exist 6 weeks ago and who’s single policy is a no deal brexit, won the election. This was a re-run of the referendum, and I’m afraid leave won again. A second referendum won’t change that. Get ready for no deal, it’s happening.
Exactly. The existing party's have ****ed this up and the people for so long now , people want out.They don't trust any of the current political establishment they will vote to get rid.
So wait a minute, I thought voting in the Euro elections went against the desires of the Leave supporters. Surely that means the Brexit party victory means nothing because once we leave the European union all these MEP's will be out of a job anyway.
Considering Farage is so anti European Union, he's still willing to take a wage from them.
Could it be possible that the whole lot of them are just lying scumbags?
The remain vs leave is not just party 1 vs party 2 is it though?Adding together the remain/pro-European Lib Dem, Greens and SNP means they have ‘won’ over the brexshit party and few conservatives and labour.
So this is actually a vote to remain.
That's how I see it too. Labour and the tories lost out to both the 'remain' parties and the Brexshit party, with just their respective hardcore 'my parents before me always voted this way, so I will always vote this way' supporters voting for them.
Could it be possible that the whole lot of them are just lying scumbags?
No that's called a bona fide certainty.
Corbyn just said labour will support a public vote. The Sky News presenter asked him 20 times, and he gave the same answer. Clear enough now?
Stable door. Horse...
So this is actually a vote to remain
Much as I'd like it to be, it's another too close to call "draw" IMO. If we were to call a confirmatory ref' tomorrow, TBH you couldn't forecast it either way based on yesterday's results. The difference is of course that Remainers have nothing to lose and Leavers would have to risk everything they've gained in the last three years, basically the polar opposite of the 2016 vote. Nobody on the Leave side will want to repeat "Cameron's folly".
It's worth remembering that this was of course NOT a Brexit vote/opinion poll, despite everyone in the UK treating it like one it was a vote to select our MEPs. And so we're now effectively sending a bunch of Euro-skeptic nationalists to represent us in the EU parliament, even if it is only for ten minutes before our final flounce out, it's an I odd way to behave as a nation and is unlikely to result in any improved terms over and above the Maybot's deal so we'll done UK...
Hard Brexit beckons.
The vote so far in Scotland.
What deal does Lord Far Far actually want?
Corbyn just said labour will support a public vote. The Sky News presenter asked him 20 times, and he gave the same answer. Clear enough now?
Yes, if it's confirmed by Milne and Lavery.
Hard Brexit beckons.
It's only taken 3 years.
What deal does Lord Far Far actually want?
He's not interested in "deals" he's backed by Aaron Banks and he's interested in mobilising and directing the indignant rage present in at least 1/3rd of the population for whatever purpose his paymaster choses...
Nigel is a former Thacherite who just turned up to the Tory party too late, and hadn't realised that liking money wasn't enough, he really should have gone to Oxford...
As his face didn't fit and UKIP was in the offing he jumped on that bandwagon and the rest is history. Don't think for a second that the man has principles or beliefs, to give him his due he knows how to deliver dog whistle speaches to a receptive audience like very few others, and mainstream politics has created the most receptive audience in a generation...
He's a populist at a time when populism is a winning strategy. It won't last forever, but its working for now.
This was a re-run of the referendum, and I’m afraid leave won again.
Well, I had lots of choices, didn't you? Green and LibDems did "quite well", and I don't recall anyone suggesting that a vote for them was a proxy Leave vote. Together they polled more than the Brexit Party.
And so we’re now effectively sending a bunch of Euro-skeptic nationalists to represent us in the EU parliament
We did in 2014 as well. How long before they start physically fighting each other again, like last time?
is unlikely to result in any improved terms
There will be lots of cooperative MEPs being sent as well, don't forget. But you're right, a quick no deal Brexit will look more advantageous to many working at the EU level once they have to listen in Parliament to the weird rabble that have been elected under the Farage banner.
Yes, if it’s confirmed by Milne and Lavery.
Add Lansman to that and we'll start thinking about taking it seriously.