Both sides have noted progress - albeit slow - with reference to discussions on trade. So you are off again!
Next thing your partner will be on about untruths and the City of London - remember those nasty bankers you hate so much but are about to decamp on mass (or not). Formez vos bataillons!!
Formez vos bataillons!!
"Jog-on, Jog-on......."
8)
Two misquotes do not a lie make.
Xenophobia from you then, Dannyh.
Ah, but doctors and mechanics generally have a track record of success, governments less so.
How would you measure that?
Since depending on your measurement.
Lack of complete anarchy for example governments do quite well.
Doctors do quite badly at keeping people alive for eternity.
I read the letters page in The Metro with despair today.
The consensus there (as selected by the DMG Media group naturally) was that we all need to get behind David Davis and crew to secure the best possible deal for Britain.
No particular problem with that as a sentiment - but the suggested implementation of [i]"getting behind them"[/i] seemed to involve removing all scrutiny of proceedings and allowing them to agree whatever they want without any fear of criticism from "traitorous" parliament, citizens or media.
That terrifies me.
As at least two of you are using French today here's a link to read which backs up one of the points of was making that THM calls a lie:
It is indeed worrying that holding the govt to democratic account - some may call that bringing back control - is now seen as traitorous
[quote=Edukator ]Two misquotes do not a lie make.
Dont worry he will do hundreds of them interspersed with a lecture on how we bullied his friend who had no facts.....[perhaps we should have been as polite to him as he is to you [ not that I agree with his claim you are a lair]] its just part of the troll he has become on this thread to try and provoke the sort of reaction he gave Zokes - odd he dislikes it so much yet cannot stop himself being the worst example of it
Exits thread as it looks like its no tin danger of breaking into a grown up debate whist we all feed troll boy
Exits thread as it looks like its no tin danger of breaking into a grown up debate whist we all feed troll boy
Good move. I need a guitar thread or eco thread to remind me why this place is worth logging on to.
steady on no we cannot really leave then the bully will have won so we have to stay to witness his lament against bullying and rudeness via the medium of being a rude bully.
The worst thing is that this is all true
I tried ignoring the rudeness, I've been pointing it out for a while, it's time for another tack. I dropped out for a couple of weeks and was greeted with heightened level of sneering on return. I'm not going for the TJ solution of blocking but just contibuting links without comment to the thread is the next approach. I'll see how that works. Plenty of other threads with good will, no need to hang out in this one.
Very scared about hard Brexit.
How likely do you think it is THM?
I'll answer for him mol:
[i]"Yes."[/i]
😉
Less than a deal. Frau Compromise will save the day!!
But only after a lot of noise
Ed, you simply posted stuff that was untrue. To coin your phrase you got called out by more than one person and then tried to play the victim card 😯
he wont reply to me ever and for some reason he views this bliss like arrangement as a punishment - he is not the brightest is he 😉
I would tend to go for ignorance but too many folk feed him to make that possible but if we did there is the possibility if a debate breaking out about the issue and then less of this sort of pointless shit [ including what i type as well]
thing is any deal is a not a hard brexit if by hard you mean no deal and some sort of trade
the problem is before the vote was won all they discussed [ in the main] was a super soft deal of free trade remaining and us being out =- ie pretty much staying in the CU or some such - that wont happen so one could argue any deal is going to be hard - though not as hard as a true WTO hard brexit
How about -
soft brexit - what they campaigned for and no one is trying to achieve now
Hard brexit - what we are going to get
Suicidal Brexit - what wont happen happen [ probably]
Who knows debate might just break out now
Edukator - Reformed Troll
Xenophobia from you then, Dannyh.POSTED 1 HOUR AGO # REPORT-POST
You've got me worried now. Please don't tell me the "jog-on, jog-on" thing is a known footy hooligan chant or something(?)
I genuinely thought it was an amusing pun and expressive of my attitude to THM, seems it might have a bit of a double meaning......
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Jog%20on
Anyhow don't worry, danny, I'll take it no slight was intended and you weren't adding to THM's taunt. No worries.
I genuinely thought it was an amusing pun and expressive of my attitude to THM, seems it might have a bit of a double meaning
I thought it was funny too
It's just that most people, as you acknowledged, don't have all the facts. So how the hell can you make a balanced decision without facts?
You cannot mol. But when do you ever have all the facts? Never.
When this thread started I was one of the few people who argued that is was absurd since we had no idea what that EU would look like in the future other than it’s current format was unsustainable. I do not recall may others arguing against the idea though. They dived pretty much straight into the debate
Ditto the Indy debate. Many clearly swallowed the Indy lies hook line and sinker including basic issues on what money they would use or more realistically wouldn’t use. Wee eck lied through his teeth in a way that the Brexshiteers could only dream off. Ignoring that, many boasted that economic suffering was a price well worth paying for the joy of being free from the dreaded English. Where were the calls then that the vote shouldn’t happen because large numbers showed that they were incapable of rational decisions. Nowhere and rightly so.
So it’s disingenuous in the extreme to play the thicko card now just because the other side won
Oldman - the answers to the four questions are totally dependent on the type of deal we end up with. Could be 4 no’s could be 4 yes’s. One thing for sure, if we keep swallowing the EU tactics it will be 4 No’s for sure
THM the folk i mentioned primarily voted to leave based on the bollocks fed to them?
So let's assume a no deal/wto exit? Then how will those people do?
It's like any major conflict of interest the piss poor pay the price....
it's disingenuous in the extreme to claim that a 52/48 scenario is definitive. People may well have changed/change their mind when the facts are known, ie when the deal is done.So it’s disingenuous in the extreme to play the thicko card now just because the other side won
Why are you so against putting the deal back to the public? We both agree they can be trusted.
Where's the democracy in forcing people down a path they may no longer want to go down?
Badly. Not sure conflict of interest is correct but your conclusion is.
Hard brexit: 2019 GDP probably -1% (not the very silly numbers th remoaners come up with), £ weaker, interest rates up as imported inflation rises. So weak wage growth (-ve in real terms) and job losses too. Not a great story really is it?
Still talking about money and economics is all terribly
narrow-minded when more important issues are at stake 😉
No response to the obvious democratic fudge that's happening, thm?
You took the huff with me? 😆
No, supper and peaky blinders instead
I don’t think there will be a democratic fudge. Brexit will happen (most likely)
Hard brexit: 2019 GDP probably -1%
As an ongoing trend, or just as a 2019 blip due to leaving that year?
Oops - an example of being careful what you wish for:
https://www.channel4.com/news/leave-voting-grimsby-accused-of-double-standards
Haha, maybe someone should tell Grimsby that brexit means brexit!
Blooming Leavmoaners: "You won, get over it" 😆
Just wondering, how many pro-Brexit MPs are receiving death threats?
I'm pretty sure the answer is zero, although they are being pilloried in an often witty way. Poor lambs.
It's almost like all the thugs and extremists are on one side............
Just remember we had a vote on [url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_related_to_the_European_Union#United_Kingdom.27s_European_Communities_membership.2C_1975 ]EU membership[/url] so why have all these people been allowed to subvert the will of the people for so long, Farage etc. should have been in the tower and his head on a pole by now.
#OneShotDemocracy
Hahah what a bunch of ****s, it was always goubg to be the north that would lose out from brexit. Londons too big too fail, Grimsby isn't.
Hard brexit: 2019 GDP probably -1%
Cite.
Oh, that's right, you just plucked a number out of your backside.
I dont post very often on this thread,but I do read it, and I thought you all might find this interesting, its an extract from a blog from neil woodfords fund management company, the full blog is here.
https://woodfordfunds.com/words/blog/brexit-where-are-we-now/
Ps - for full disclosure I voted for leave.
anyway, here's their view on it all (as of nov 8th 2017):-
"We expect a deal to be struck with the EU in the coming months. This report suggests that neither side can be entirely comfortable about the prospect of walking away from the table without an agreement, as do the Bank of England Financial Policy Committee notes released last month. These highlighted that £20 trillion of uncleared derivatives contracts, impacting tens of thousands of counterparties, were potentially at risk of disrupting the functioning of financial markets in the event of no deal. Nevertheless, the Capital Economics report indicates that even in the event of no deal, the long-term prospects for the UK economy are nowhere near as bleak as many have predicted.
That conclusion will surprise many people, if the results of our Twitter poll are anything to go by. Almost half of the 42,000 that voted believe that the UK economy is “facing a cliff-edge” as a result of Brexit. This negative consensual view is reflected in the UK stock market, helping to forge a compelling investment opportunity in domestically-focused stocks, which the funds are positioned to exploit. The Capital Economics report, which explores the key debates in detail, provides considerable grounds for optimism that the long-term outcomes for the UK economy will be far better than the alarmed consensus would suggest."
You’re brave Julians!!
Woodford may be coordinating things as the Economics for Free Trade group are also upping their narrative today. Bootle was first up in the Torygraph and Minford today. Publishing some non-consensus views. They will soon be bashed down!!
Then we had Dyson on Marr.
The Brexit boys trying to regain some ground in the current one way narrative. Some of the EFT assumptions are more realistic than the current consensus even though I don’t agree with their full conclusions
Still interesting to read different perspectives esp on here.
Thx for the link
(Woodford has just been buying UK banks so may Be he is also taking his own book!!)
Capital Economics are perfectly entitled to their analysis. But they have always been heavily on the Brexit side of the fence - Bootle is a Telegraph columnist and has always been a keen leaver. Any analysis from his group which offered less favourable odds on Britain's chances outside the EU would be a humiliating climbdown for him.
It really does fall into the 'He would say that, wouldn't he?' category of report.
I'd be more interested in analysis by folks who perhaps have been a little more neutral in their approach thus far rather than ones who will always be vulnerable to accusations of confirmation bias.
As THM says, this looks like pushback against hostile anti-Brexit narratives, so while it's fine to post it up in some kind of rebalancing exercise, I don't think any of the extreme views, pro or anti, stand on their own as a reliable predictor.
As ever, the truth lies somewhere between the sunlit uplands and the apocalyptic economic meltdown variously predicted.
You’re brave Julians!!
just thick I think....
anyway, thats the last from me for a while, as you were.
So it wont be as bad as predicted but even they have stopped short of saying it will be goodthe long-term prospects for the UK economy are nowhere near as bleak as many have predicted...the long-term outcomes for the UK economy will be far better than the alarmed consensus would suggest."
zokes, thm was asked his opinion and gave it.
thanks for posting julians. some of the contributors here are giving each other a rough ride, but most people just treat as they find. it would be refreshing to have someone else here who can post without some of the sniping that has come to characterise many of the exchanges here, whatever their standpoint.
thm i have to say it makes me laugh when 'they' start wheeling out dyson to counter the vulcan. i imagine we can see some shite dribbling out of wetherspoon shortly too.
as an aside the landlord of my local opined the other night that it was likely 25p on a pint early next year due to increased costs. brewery pub whose brewery has swallowed other rising costs so far. anecdotal of course, but the guy knows his trade.
The worst thing about all these predictions is that there has been very little additional data since June 2016 which would allow anyone to make them. As Bootle wrote last year, economists are notoriously bad at making predictions anyhow (and yet, here he is with another set).
Essentially zero progress has been made in resolving the uncertainty and giving businesses any insight into likely trading conditions in only a couple of year's time.
It's a vacuum which just invites opinion and bias.
Del - just ignore it. Zokes needs to have his little childish vent and if it helps, no harm. I passed on his comments to my (award-winning) chief economist who sits 20 feet away!! We both smiled.
But Martin is correct, current and forecast trends are actually really dull hence the need of remoaners to resort to excessive exagerated to make their non-points.
So the man in the street should turn off the noise, keep calm and carry on 😉
I don't know who will be more agitated at the latest migration numbers - the Brexshiteers as they are still bouyant or the remoaners as they are still bouyant
So much for the floods of immigrants and bankers away from UK 😉
IMF and all serious commentators think it will be disastrous. Positive views rare outliers
But Martin is correct, current and forecast trends are actually really dull hence the need of remoaners to resort to excessive exagerated to make their non-points.
You misrepresent what I said, surprisingly.. Of course current trends are dull, there are no data available for the situation we'll find ourselves facing in 24 months. There might be a juggernaut steaming around the corner to mow us down, there might not.
Everything rests on a political process which, to my untrained eye, appears to be developing in a haphazard and unfocused way. Any business who does not see that as a significant risk deserves to get kicked up the arse when certainty finally does arrive.
Of course against Julians’s link you’d have to consider Redwood recommending people get their cash out of the UK.
But then he’s a traitor with no belief in Britain I suppose.
