[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

It seems to me the whole thing is being dragged out for as long as possible until the general consensus is that it's not worth doing and we (our glorious leaders) can back out blaming whoever was last in power at which point the EU will then say "ok fair enough, we didn't want to to leave anyway so we won't hold you to Article 50" and we'll all go back to where we were.

Obviously by then we (most of us prols) will be even worse off than before but that won't matter because it'll be [i]our[/i] fault.

This is a complete farce.

Plans in place for all scenarios.

“All” is a surprisingly large word my old son. Really ? All? 8)

“All” is a surprisingly large word my old son. Really ? All?

Compulsory purchase orders already in for 10,000 acres of lorry park at Felixstowe, Hull and Dover.

Actually, no, but they better get a move unless unless they were actually thinking of just using the A14, M62 and M2 in 18 month's time.

For us, yes. All in place. Just need to know what outcome is and therefore which button to press

THM - seeing as how you were asking if anyone knew what A50 was, I thought I’d point you at this.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_50_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union

Happy to help.

(Ducks quickly)

Just need to know what outcome is and therefore which button to press

Live from the NI/ROI border crossing

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On that “all” again, and just out of interest, and indeed I understand if you can’t answer, does that include the scenario where Brexit for whatever reason doesn’t happen?

[quote=Speeder ]
This is a complete farce.

surely this is something both sides can agree on...

Yes. But I am only talking about/working with one industry, not whole UK

No Brexshit and everyone is laughing but we do not expect that so are preparing accordingly

BBC seem to be promoting the OECD report quite strongly...

Sorry THM, had to check. So you have prepared for all the options you expect then.
Keep your expectations low and you’ll be fine. 😉

Joking aside, I think you are in financial services of some sort. My impression is that that should be a relatively easy transition compared to some industries. Could be wrong. I’m doing a lot of work with motor manufacturers and the EV industry at the moment and I think the UK is potentially in a really bad place there as there a whole load of new standards needed there. The EU are probably going to set the standards, we will have little say and then we get to accept them or not have workable cars.

True. True

And I accept the level of preparation is unusual

We’re doing what we can, but in the electricity game it’s all about interconnection and interdependence - at the macro level.
And at the micro level, it’s responding to physical economic development - new factories, homes, shopping centres etc, and growth in existing ones.
Brexit ain’t good for the electricity industry - you can probably expect energy prices to rise medium to long term as a result - over inflation.

I am too simple to understand a complex business like yours. I'm not sure of the direct link to energy prices but can see the indirect one via £

The standards issue is v real and I commented on that pre vote. As you say the EU will still set standards that exporters will have to abide with, but we will have no control. Plenty of scope for wasteful duplication and FA to do with taking back control 😉 quite the opposite!!

Frankly I am more concerned about other regulatory changes rather than Brexshit in my world. We can cope with Brexshit quite easily, it's the uncertainty and delays that kill.

So from glancing thru this thread it appear for some the fantasy of a bespoke deal is still being touted. Alternative reality or what. There is no time notr expertise available to hammer out a bespoke deal.

May and Davies have been roundly rebuffed in their attempts to get the EU to bow down to them. Junkers and Barnier are trying to help them but they won't help themselves

Zero progress on the 3 key issues means nothing else will be discussed. Davies fantasy that the trade talks must be done in parallel is exposed again. 27 EU countries leaders have said this will not happen. He spouts the "german car manufacturers need us" line again despite it being obviously of no leverage. Boris with his " time for the EU to get serious " is such obvious nonsense. Its time for May and the three amigos to get serious and to accept that cake and eat it does not work

The EU hold all the cards. May and the three amigos are being laughed at because they keep on spouting such nonsense.

Hmmm this ROI/NI border thing could be a bit of bugger then.

So options are:

1.Hard border thru the middle.
2.Sea border around it,
3.Soft IT border.
4.Faerie border

(No offence meant for any ROI/NI stwers just overly simplifying to get my head around it.)

I suppose movement of people isn’t the issue (as this happens now) and it’s all about the smuggling into the EU goods from the U.K. and currently Faerie border seems the to go option.

So assuming we settle the bill ,agree rights of eu citizens in U.K. and U.K. citizens in EU then this may be the tricky bit assuming we the thumbs up from the remaining eu countries.

Ignoring euroatom and the university stuff an the fishing/farming stuff and the great repeel bill

Fifteen months down the line we’ve got down to candle lit dinners with Mrs May and Co 🙂

Just seems too many things have to happen to make this work, if we had allowed 10 years then yes but current timescales and the ticking clock.

Movement of people is also an issue across the eire / NI border. an open border between and EU and NOn eu state - total non starter for the EU

DUP will not accept a sea border, a hard land border rips up the good friday agreement

There is no solution to this that I can see or that anyone has proposed hence may and co want to put this aside for now.

And the more truthful account:

1. Given that none of the exiting arrangements cover the Uk/ EU respective requirements any deal has to be bespoke by definition. See Juncker’s crib sheet ^

2. Both sides recognise that this will require a transition of at least 2 years, probably more. Only the terms of the transition need finalising and we have made obvious compromises there - hence the annoyance of the hard line Brexshiteers

3. Concessions have been made on both sides - bar the Germans worried about the cash - and attention will turn trade soon albeit belatedly. In the meantime Merkel is tied up with her own domestic difficulties

4. The need to move on was already acknowdged by Barnier and others

5. Neither side hold all the cards. They both need to avoid a lose:lose

6. The real negotions are not what is covered by the media and the real work is away from the spotlights. Insiders now that progress is happening albeit at a pace that is too slow for all

7. Remoaners will keep spouting nonsense and like the poll tax will still be banging on about it in 20’years time when RoW has moved on

Apart from that.....

THM at what point did you realise?

Was it over your museli one day that actually you decided that Poles make you uneasy.

Did you one day no notice you were wearing full tweed and a Barbour jacket

Or you came out of the newsagents with a copy of the Express instead of the FT?

Was it a slow dawning or a sudden revelation.....

..... That you were indeed a KIPPER !!! 😆

You can't keep shouting 'remoaners' to distract from the series of unforced errors that the Tories have made of Brexit

While im sure that progress is being made by the civil service the right wing so despise, at a ministerial level it's barely held together chaos, every day a Brexiteer briefs against a saner Tory, (eg Rudd saying no deal inconceivable & being abused on social media Vs Davis saying it's our plan B)

Transition is essential not just for economic sense but as breathing space for the Tories to figure out what the actual **** they want out of Brexit

There is no progress being made. None. Zero.

May got some kind words and thats it.

I have not said they are doing a good job. I am merely correcting the BS being spouted. See x post for illustration.

You forget that I am in a v small minority of people who supports full FOM too. Keep the Poles coming. My immediate team has Brits, Greeks, Chinese, a Columbian and a Pole so FOM suits me well. My wider team is multi-everything.

I do have a 30 yr old Barbour true, but no trashy tabloid. Only broadsheets here. Sorry.

No deal is nothing more than a mechanism to speed up negotiations. Neither side will let it happen. Don’t confuse posturing with intent

Neither side is doing well. We should be well into trade by now. But we know why that is not the case. As predicted.

It'll only progress when May opens up the cheque book, she's too weak to do that.

I reckon she made a deal with Merkel to do it when she's about to quit and can carry the flak she'll get from the swivel eyed, (that's why the Germans started slating Johnson)

If May is planning an exit by Xmas then maybe she can splash that cash in time for the Euro Council meeting then and maybe we can belatedly start on security & a transition deal, maybe, if it's not too late.

Or the government could keep gnawing at it's festering wounds so we end up the a mostly hard Brexit with a bit a few concessions from the EU out of pity, (if they can get past their anger that we've fuct them all over)

If the EU also end up within a hard Brexshit they will have @@@@ed themselves too. Don't forget that!!

The only way "transition" makes sense is if it is used as a synonym for "staying in the EU". Otherwise all the same problems apply to the transition, as apply to leaving.

No talks on transition before the 3 conditions are met, no transition possible until the 3 conditions are met.

Indeed, can you imagine how hard Johnson and co would be hated over there!

The EU would be in trouble no doubt, a new impetus to finalize those trade deals and figure out who's going to lend all the cash.

Would also accelerate the EU army programme to of imagine.

May & Davis having wasted soon much time with election, posturing to the RW press & general incompetence, transition needed more than ever

Meanwhile peoplele like redwood are building momentum for the hard Brexit they maniacally crave..

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4686254/real-on-no-deal-uk-will-have-bags-trade-options-brexit/

It may be laughable madness, but people are lapping this crap up

Don't panic it will happen.

I'm not sure of the direct link to energy prices but can see the indirect one via £

It’s more a whole series of indirect ones, from the staff we employ (UK engineers of any quality are increasing hard to find - Europeans were generally an easy cultural fit), to the technology we use (the big stuff is created elsewhere, the smaller stuff manufactured elsewhere), to the fact that greater interconnection makes energy cheaper (where do you think we were going to link to), to standards for new applications increasingly become by pan-European (and we won’t be able to influence them the way we once did).
All these things are minor at the edges, but additive in their effect.
We were regarded as amongst the leaders in Europe and probably the world, and as a result had a lot of influence. We’ve given that up I think.

Look on the bright side, ir you/we really are the best in the world then it remains in EUs interest for that to be maintained. Law of comparative advantage

Why would they seek to harm yiu?

We were regarded as amongst the leaders in Europe and probably the world, and as a result had a lot of influence. We’ve given that up I think

Certainly in scientific research we are leaders at least in Europe, and Europe very much needs us. Can't see that theyd want to lose our collaboration.

As you say though effects are additive, uncertainty and jingoism have had an effect on some EU colleagues, while highly skilled, salaries in science aren't great so their positions feel more vulnerable than better paid.
So some already leaving, especially the good ones who can find work easier in Europe & elsewhere.
Loss of access to EU grants already happening (not big and long term so effects not yet felt), no new money from gov.
Also consistently weak £ has hit budgets.

Just feels like a steady eroding of our position

teamhurtmore - Member
Look on the bright side, ir you/we really are the best in the world then it remains in EUs interest for that to be maintained. Law of comparative advantage

If the EU also end up within a hard Brexshit they will have @@@@ed themselves too. Don't forget that!!

The point most of us have been at pains to point out is that whilst Brexit is certainly less than ideal for the EU, it's orders of magnitude more problematic for the UK.

zokes, you just need to look on the bright side! Why hadn't I thought of that? It's brilliant! Just look on the bright side, and everything is much better!

Which side of a turd is the bright side?

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Something to think about, when did the migration change from negative to positive? What also happened. The UK risks losing the young on mass, people go where the work is and if the work is no longer in the UK.

I think the OECD idea of long term decline is the reality of Brexit, there will be no second empire, no sunny uplands, it will just be a never ending rerun of the 70's.

I just about managed to miss the 70s first time round (in any meaningful sense - I was 9 when they ended). Good music, bad economy as it recall.

That said the 80s weren’t that good in Glasgow either.

PS was 70s net migration caused by all those successful rock stars heading for tax havens?

The UK risks losing the young on mass, people go where the work is and if the work is no longer in the UK.

They won't be able to any more. Not only is it going to be far harder for people to come here, it's going to be far harder for people to leave too. Removing freedom of movement cuts both ways.

More seriously, to take THM’s advice on forward planing to a personal level, it does look like trying to make sure you have a few emigration options up your sleeve would be a good idea.
Encourage your children to go to a foreign university if they can, learn languages (yes I know they all speak English but... ), break the ties to where you live if they are holding you back.
You don’t have to use those options but as THM says, do the planning and see which button needs pressing.

They won't be able to any more. Not only is it going to be far harder for people to come here, it's going to be far harder for people to leave too. Removing freedom of movement cuts both ways.

europe isn't on my escape list.

Learned something today. I though it was brinksmanship that was going on. Apparently it’s brinkmanship.

Also Bloomberg are echoing my analysis of proceedings fairly well. They stop short of suggesting that doing the best for both the British people (and, incidentally,everyone else) would be to junk Brexit as a thoroughly bad idea, but you can see the direction of travel.

And in case you are wondering what appeals to a slightly left of centre, relatively affluent (but certainly not rich) engineer and son of a former Labour activist, here’s the link to my echo chamber.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-18/brexit-talks-are-failing-somebody-needs-to-care?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews

IGM, yup, I'm an engineer in o&g so there are opportunies for me to work elsewhere, I'm also eligable for an Irish passport, which I'll sort out if push comes to shove as it's not that cheap, and also means I'll have to get my grandad's death cert out of my mum/aunt, who are both ardent Brexiters (which made for some interesting conversations about [s]immigrants[/s], sorry economic migrants, pre-vote)

My gf has dual residency already, being from hong kong orignally, and she's doing a pgce as it's a pretty well recognised teaching qualification internationally.

Oh and I'm clearing debts and trying to build up a rainy-day find.

Not sure what else I can so, short of stockpiling bottled water and tinned food, and I'm not *that* crazy.

Oh and I'm clearing debts and trying to build up a rainy-day fund.

Excellent, don't tell THM.

I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it...

good article IGM

So how to explain the impasse given claims on both sides that they want an agreement? Beyond tactical brinkmanship, the only explanation is that this isn't a negotiation, at least not yet. It's more like a series of lectures and position statements directed at domestic audiences.

sums it up