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Yep and lovely to see all those benefit scrounging pensioners getting their rise, hope that will apply to all the public sector workers.
He needs to be talking up the UK more, the bloody traitor!
Maybe put a tiger in the tank, and let the lion roar
teamhurtmore - Member
Inflation at 3% mind the rally in the £ and get ready for first (small) increase in UK rates next month!
Poor engineer and all, but given much of the inflation was caused by the fall in the pound, doesn’t a rally in the pound ease inflationary concerns a little?
That said, interest rates ain’t going down now are they.
When inflation goes up what you can afford goes down and the value of debt goes up. It's a win win for the banks.
Yep and lovely to see all those benefit scrounging pensioners getting their rise, hope that will apply to all the public sector workers.
but those on other benefits wont be, including the record numbers on in-work benefits
Tories & their Brexit doing a remarkable job of making sure work doesnt pay
love me a bit of Gareth Cheeseman. Brexit Bonus!
thats very interesting
can we shuffle around those squares for our bespoke deal?
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So red is awesome? Where is the white and blue?
A Red, red and red Brexit doesn't have quite the same ring.
I believe the blue and white stuff, such as magical pixie border controls in Ireland, having a fabulous trade deal with the commonwealth, and removing the need for food imports by growing more, is on the back in the section marked: 'Fantasy options'
Double points if you know who’s it is. Without looking.
It was Barnier's, photo taken of it at Belgian parliament
Worst Tetris game ever.
Pity the link actually showed that Mefty. It wasn’t mean to.
However have your 5 unicorn points anyway.
How many points to get int he express unicorn queue?
Anyway I'm waiting for someone to explain the long words to me
value of debt goes up
Bond (gilt) prices go down. The government pays more for its borrowing when it issues new debt and the banks often lose as the value of existing bonds falls (it depends how the bank is positionned on gilts).
quote from Silvana Tenreyro on why she brings something unique to the MPC
"I grew up in a developing country, subject to many crises"....
Is Argentina really the way forward....
Saw photo on Twitter last night, someone must have retweeted it as Fleming isn't on any of the lists I follow.
Worst Tetris game ever.
You are not the first to say that
Sorry Ed should have clarified I meant personal - as in it's bad news for a lot of people - you need more money to pay your debts and for food etc.
Bond (gilt) prices go down. The government pays more for its borrowing when it issues new debt and the banks often lose as the value of existing bonds falls (it depends how the bank is positionned on gilts).
Easier to make profits when interest rates are higher, I would be very surprised if any banks weren't positioned for rise as it has been widely telegraphed. What banks really want is an upward sloping yield curve as their natural position is to be short on the liability side and long on the asset side.
Banks need to cover maturing liabilities so have easily liquidated assets on hand to do this, usually bonds so they'll take a hit in the short term whatever the yield curve looks like. Raising interest rates usually flattens the yield curve in the short short term.
As for it being esier to make profits when interest rates are higher, that only applies to small hikes, with bigger hikes the level of default also increases. Stock markets suffer too and even if banks aren't invested directly they hold derivatives. Higher interest rates hits just about every form of intestment negatively - it's perhaps the time to invest in a proper hedge fund, i.e. one that shorts the most vulnerable markets.
When things get to hyper inflation levels then even hyper interest levels do nothing for bank profitability, they fail, even central banks leaving countries with no currency.
THM blithers about the Euro having failed, fact is the Pound is much more likely to fail as investors lose confidence, ditcht gilts, the BOE pays a fortune for its money and the Greek sitiuation starts to look enviable.
IGM kimbers
The sheets shows very clearly that there are no off the shelf solutions and that we need a unique FTA. You know, red, white....
Yield curve matters more for fixed rate regimes, level of short term rates for variable rate regimes.
THM blithers
Ed, you have made my lunch...you then post that the UK is going to pay a fortune for its debt ( 😯 ) and that we will view Greece with envy ( 😯 😯 )
Not even your tag pal will be able to beat that, but he wi ll no doubt try!! Awesome.
Arguably THM, that chart shows I think 7 (certainly 3) off the peg solutions. 😉
And of course just like a suit, alterations can, and normally should, be made to the off the peg item.
However I find it more interesting that Barnier is carrying it. You could read things into that.
I’m not surprised. I posted a similar summary three times earlier in the thread. The level of understanding of the core issues here is very very poor including among many politicians
When they talk about being in the single market etc or hard and soft you know they are in trouble. As my link noted at the start, the key thing is to distinguish between membership of and access to the SM If people don’t get this, then they are lost from the start
What the charts show is various ways of maintaining access to the single market - the subject we should be negotiating but which the EU want to avoid. From that everything else follows, not the other way around. I may have mentioned that before 😉
Greece 😉 still giggling
What the charts show is various ways of maintaining access to the single market - the subject we should be negotiating but which the EU want to avoid. From that everything else follows, not the other way around. I may have mentioned that before
You keep going on about that but almost exclusively miss any questions on the NI/Eire border or our land border with the EU and how the pixies and magic IT solution will satisfy anybody.
No I have been clear. There is no easy answer. That’s why the EU have this as a precondition. They are not daft. Just devious.
The THM solution to NI: Shrug, "let's not talk about that now", "But Jeremy says..", "The EU should be discussing trade", another shrug.
OK so no easy answer but it really needs answering, right now, in fact before declaring A50 would have been good. I'd call it a really important precondition of anything else due the the amount of trouble getting it wrong will cause - it's not on the list of sort it out laters is it.
The only daft people in the room are the brexit voters and the tories who think they can survive it.
There is no easy answer. That’s why the EU have this as a precondition. They are not daft. Just devious.
Or maybe, despite your venom, it's precisely because it's the most difficult part that it's up front. You can't just close your eyes and hope it goes away. Better off dealing with it at the start than it bringing the whole deck of cards down at the end.
[url= https://www.ft.com/content/f84dbae4-e713-11e6-967b-c88452263daf?mhq5j=e7 ]This is a good article from the FT which deals with the relationship between banks profitability and rising interest rates.[/url]
Most of the things you mention are discussed in it, but the downsides are generally outweighed by the upsides.
When things get to hyper inflation levels then even hyper interest levels do nothing for bank profitability, they fail, even central banks leaving countries with no currency.
Do you honestly think 3% is hyper inflation?
THM blithers about the Euro having failed, fact is the Pound is much more likely to fail as investors lose confidence, ditcht gilts, the BOE pays a fortune for its money and the Greek sitiuation starts to look enviable.
UK's great advantage is we have one of the longest maturity profiles for government debt of any major nation, whilst we have to refinance continuously like everyone else, there is no crunch moment like there was for Greece.
So, effectively, it's like when Van Halen inserted a clause in their rider to demand that the blue M&M's were removed?
The Northern Ireland border is effectively the non-removed Blue M&M's?
binners - MemberSo, effectively, it's like when Van Halen inserted a clause in their rider to demand that the blue M&M's were removed?
Kind of, except that in this case, it may be impossible to remove blue m&ms.
Some of the M&M's will change when you look away, others will ask their backers what colour to be today and then Pixies and Unicorns
The THM solution to NI: Shrug, "let's not talk about that now", "But Jeremy says..", "The EU should be discussing trade", another shrug.
Well to be fair the extent of the problem will be partially defined by where we get on trade hence it seems pretty silly to expect it to be totally solved before those discussions are even started.
Indeed start at the starting point. Tends to help.
Mike are you clear on what A50 is?
So which is the plucky Brit negotiator and which is the evil EU guy?
Well to be fair the extent of the problem will be partially defined by where we get on trade
Which bit, it covers a lot more than that, as said above though how can you negotiate on trade if the issue could bring the lot down - especially as Ireland can have a parliamentary vote at the end of it.
Settlement of accounts, treatment of people and NI border are the fundamentals that will underpin what goes forward. If the UK don't like it Tough Shit! You Won Fix It.
Better still - talking of not going back on things the UK agreed to this.
So at which point does May explain the situation to the people in something other than a soundbite fest?
teamhurtmore - Member
Mike are you clear on what A50 is?
trying to be patronising again?
Care to elaborate which post you have just bothered to read?
Was it about working out things like a decent position on NI starting a 24 months countdown to a cliff edge? It's not a hard thing to start - perhaps by reading all the positions and trying to come up with a solution that would work, when you have gone through a hundred or so that don't involve waving hands and saying technology then decide you might be prepared to start negotiating.
No it’s a simple question. It’s not clear from your answers
Clear or just not in agreement with you, carry on with the tory bs there really the sort it out later approach to the ni border sums it up. Not my problem but best stick it to them they asked for it. The call for patriotism when looking at a very one sided table where the UK holds all the good cards. Blind faith that one referendum must be respected but all other democracy ignored.
Best get back to your prep meetings, you factoring in a hard brexit?
Which bit, it covers a lot more than that, as said above though how can you negotiate on trade if the issue could bring the lot down - especially as Ireland can have a parliamentary vote at the end of it.
Settlement of accounts, treatment of people and NI border are the fundamentals that will underpin what goes forward. If the UK don't like it Tough Shit! You Won Fix It.
Better still - talking of not going back on things the UK agreed to this.So at which point does May explain the situation to the people in something other than a soundbite fest?
Exactly. Obviously it is also in the interest of an ongoing EU member state (ROI) to have a more porous border with the north. But the bulk of the responsibility for working out a solution, and deciding whether to make the necessary compromises to achieve it (freedom of movement issues) lies with the UK.
The principle is simple - you broke it, you own it.
The UK govt has offered some kind of back of the envelope fudge on the practicalities of somehow operating an open border between two nations who do not belong to the same trading bloc, yet somehow that border not ending up the focus for unregulated movement of goods and people.
For all the bollox about 'taking back control of our borders' which won leavers votes in England, the EU is trying to ram home what that actually means in practice.
British govt wants pudding before it's eaten its vegetables. Chances are it may be getting down from the table without it.
I’ll take that as a no
Plans in place for all scenarios. Hoping for bespoke 😉 deal prepared for the worst
Since the UK govt is supposedly prepared to walk away with a hard brexit it's not unreasonable to ask them what the NI border looks like in this scenario.
And indeed it's not unreasonable to ask them what they expect the NI border to look like under their preferred scenario of a "red white and blue bespoke brexit". It's still a border: people, goods and services can either pass over it without hindrance or they cannot. What is the UK govt's aim? Is it going to rip up the GFA or not?
[sits back and awaits nitpicking over the term "hard brexit" and absolutely no attempt to address the point]
No they and the Eu are clear on that if not on the “how”
Looking at the systems required to make the Norway-Sweden border work, even for a border without significant people smuggling and no armed conflict (for a few hundred years, anyway), would suggest that if the UK is going to do likewise they'd better get their skates on.
Otherwise, faeries it is.
That's being "clear" in the sense of being clear that we want to have cake and eat cake.
I.e. vague platitudes and sound bites (and mutually incompatible to boot), not an actual description of how the border will function.