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You do know that this is all academic while the Labour Party has a leader who, right now, is about as electable as Jimmy Saville, right?
Right so he should try and make himself as electable as he can, right? Like he is doing....
Did you look at a map showing Labour support and one showing leave vote? Maybe put them over each other?
Did you look at a map showing Labour support and one showing leave vote? Maybe put them over each other?
like this one?
Those would be the members we were being told should be ignored since they werent the actual voters?
so youre saying its fine that he lied?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/27/jeremy-corbyn-labour-membership-policy-leadership
Fake news Kimbers. It was in the Guardian and everyone knows they hate Corbyn.
Edit - you all type too fast 🙂 I was responding to the constituency map link!
Yeah... the Guardian are part of the right wing conspiracy. Everyone knows that
Close the bunker door comrade. We’re preparing for the post-Brexit socialist revolution and the glorious leader is feeling a bit chilly. It’s cold on that allotment
🙂
its OK I assumed that was sarcasm
When foodbanks are warning that brexit will hit the poorest hardest, youd think that labour would be all about making sure it doesnt happen
Er yes but as Binners points out they can't do anything if they aren't elected, and they still think that switching to remain would cost them too much support. Not without reason.
Looks like the lucky Irish are getting an option out from the EU....
Yeah I know that theres no consensus on what pushing for remain would do
But considering how useless May has been Corbyn has a legit shout at staving of brexshit if he wanted to
country b4 party & all that
Looks like the lucky Irish are getting an option out from the EU….
Well the reunification movement is back on track, probably could carry a vote mostly at the ineptitude of the UK government.
but mickmcd from the other thread what was your other login?
Maybe there just needs to be a free commons vote, as in no whips, vote how you feel is the best for the country.
Corbyn is a complete arse doing all this whipping to abstain on multiple occasions, and a complete hypocrite considering his history of defying the party whip.
Maybe there just needs to be a free commons vote, as in no whips, vote how you feel is the best for the country.
Well it's how I see it going as May looses it completely, my bet would be on the 27th or 28th
like this one?
Yeah cos polls are so reliable. Hilary has won and we aint exiting. Oh wait a minute.
Dont get me wrong I dont like the stance but I also dont agree with the primary school level of debate that Labour should go for remain. Really what we need is for the MPs at an individual level to do their job and push for a second referendum/revocation rather than leave it to their leadership. This is especially true for the tories who are letting the ERG lead them by the nose.
However then you would need to address the reasons for the original vote and it will need the labour "moderates" to face up to some ugly truths.Namely they shouldnt be trying to appeal to the likes of me but instead their own constituents. A rather good book on the subject is national populism which really tries and looks at the issues. Its made me think about some of my harsh judgements about brexiteers (plus trump fans) and I think I need to leave it a bit and then reread it to see how it has sunk it.
so youre saying its fine that he lied?
Personally I would love some mechanism that if a politician goes back on a promise then they are forced to recanvas. Defining the sensible limits for that though would be rather tricky. Maybe the recall option on steroids?
However it is insanely hypocritical of the likes of Binners to try this line. Look through the Corbyn thread he is are going on and on about how we should be ignoring the membership since they arent the wider electorate and now suddenly he should switch?
Quick glance through and here is one of his rants
So spare me the crap about ‘biggest membership of any party in Europe’! By the only measure that counts in a democracy – getting elected – Corbyn has been, and will be an absolute unmitigated disaster
Its a completely incoherent and hypocritical position worthy of the ERG.
How comfortable would you be with the gamble that killing Brexit will help Labour and not destroy it? Bearing in mind the hard right are in ascendance in the tories and if Labour are wiped out will have free reign. Frankly I am not sure whether brexit with my perfect politican in charge (who doesnt exists) would be better than remain with the ERG let loose.
The correct answer, of course, is sod the gamble lets not get into the situation in the first place but sadly the tories removed that option.
It was in the Guardian and everyone knows they hate Corbyn.
Are you seriously suggesting the Guardian is pro Corbyn? Are you hard right since those are the only people who would have such a simplistic view?
The Guardian were a liberal paper. They went to Labour once Blair took over and Labour moved rightwards but after he went, to put it mildly, the relationship is complex.
There are some individual columnists who are pro-Corbyn however the only really hardcore one is no longer there (since he now works directly for Corbyn). Out of their regular journalists several are pro Corbyn although of those its entertaining watching some of them swing for and against. At least one showed Binners level of hatred after using the same line Labour would be wiped out but when they werent switched to supporting him.
There are equally some who still channel Binners.
Then there is the editorial which is mixed.
Personally I wish there was a better option for Labour than Corbyn but sadly they have been hollowed out and need time to rebuild.
Yeah cos polls are so reliable. Hilary has won and we aint exiting.
How do you understand polls and stats?
Hillary was a 3 in 4 chance of winning, Trump was 1 in 4 or a 25% chance - would you take those odds? He won just by a few hundred thousand votes as I recall, Clinton won the popular vote.
How close were the Brexit predictions? how did that account for low turnout of remain voters? In a referendum you need to pick a stay at home factor for the status quo side especially if they are forecast to win.
How do you understand polls and stats?
I am not sure what you are trying to argue here since you then go on to detail how the polls failed.
For Hilary the problem was they didnt take into account the outsize influence of the rural parts of the USA and how their votes were worth far more.
For Brexit its messier. It looks to be a mix of both the unwillingness of the remainers to turn out vs the brexiteers to do so.
In the book I mentioned there is a section comparing the turnout in certain parts of London for the actual vote vs those who went online and ticked a box for a petition. If they had bothered turning out for the real thing we might not have needed the latter.
So how confident would you be the polls saying things have changed are correct?
I would love for them to be right but as a remainer (which I aint convinced Corbyn, or May for that matter, is) and as a firm believer in Labour policies (not really. No party really suits me) I am not sure I would want to gamble on the outcome.
Again dont get me wrong I would love a more aggressive stance but if I can see why a hardcore Labour supporter wouldnt go for it. Its not so simple as party before country since by sacrificing the party for the country you may well end up losing out anyway. If Labour gambles on remain we might remain but then they might get wiped out completely and since the tories are almost certainly going to go very hard right then the damage will be insane (will it outweight brexit? if Rees-Mogg and his fellow loonies get control I reckon it might).
If I was hardcore tory supporter I would be more willing to go for the gamble on the simple grounds that it was our mistake. That said I can understand why they wouldnt agree.
The only party in a good position on this is the Lib Dems (for all UK obv SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein and other nationalist parties (for the unionist NI parties who knows?)) but given they aint in a position to really influence things should give an idea why any remainer is a tad cautious.
I am not sure what you are trying to argue here since you then go on to detail how the polls failed.
That would be the point you missed, sorry about skipping the rest of the post to do the first point - the US election was not a failure of polling more a failure of interpretation, is a 1 in 4 bet not a bet worth taking?
For Hilary the problem was they didnt take into account the outsize influence of the rural parts of the USA and how their votes were worth far more.
Well it was somewhere between Florida and the rust Belt who cost her the overall, it was down to very few votes in those areas and in those ones it was close to the independent vote. Plenty of actual stats analysis, I'd suggest 538's one if you are interested
Really what we need is for the MPs at an individual level to do their job and push for a second referendum/revocation rather than leave it to their leadership
The whipping system is very bad if you ask me. It's what's crippling MPs as they are afraid to lose thier cushty jobs. So they tow the line like good little serfs.
That also goes for labour, corbyn might be left of center, but he's just as authoritarian as the Conservatives. If not more.
That would be the point you missed, sorry about skipping the rest of the post to do the first point – the US election was not a failure of polling more a failure of interpretation
Okay so how do we know the interpretation is correct here?
I am well aware the raw data may well be correct (although for example the continued emphasis on landlines for some pollsters means the data can be suspect) however in any normal usage of polls it is what gets reported to us that counts(again once it has been through the PR department and journalists it may be corrupted but thats irrelevant here unless you can show this particular dataset is somehow safe from that its irrelevant).
is a 1 in 4 bet not a bet worth taking?
Depends on if I can afford the bet doesnt it?
100 quid maybe (actually never really a gambler but lets skip that).
Destroy Labour and give Boris ****ing Johnson charge of the UK?
I’d suggest 538’s one if you are interested
Yup.Seen it. Given how 538 failed I am still confused as to what you are trying to argue.
Lets jump back to what I was challenging. Which was kimbers just pointing at some article about a poll and thinking it means something useful.
Yup.Seen it. Given how 538 failed I am still confused as to what you are trying to argue.
Lets jump back to what I was challenging. Which was kimbers just pointing at some article about a poll and thinking it means something useful.
Oh FFS did you listen to or read their analysis of the election result?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
What is your critique to this?
The whipping system is very bad if you ask me
Yes and no. This shows how confused our political system is and I dont think there is any easy answer.
How often is an MP voted for because of who they are and not because of the party they represent?
While there are exceptions I think the majority of the time they have been elected because they represent party X not because us voters have been given the opportunity to consider each person individually and decided who is the most competent. Personally I would want to see several test results and give each a personal interview but that will never happen so instead I get to look at what the party overall promises and look at their press statements which will normally be massaged to average out anything other than abject stupidity.
So given that generally people vote due to the parties manifesto (okay thats optimistic more just the name or what interpretation they have seen on billboards or the headlines) shouldnt the MPs follow the party line?
In the early development of modern democracy there does seem to have been a hope parties wouldnt happen (George Washington for example commenting on it) but it doesnt seem to be doable.
There are occasional exceptions in constituencies mostly standing for one off causes but that doesnt really scale.
Its a fascinating subject but from what I can see far better brains than me have looked at it and havent come up with a good answer aside from just leave it to them. Which I would be cautiously in favour of aside from history showing the benevolent dictator being rather an oddity and instead we end up either with a bunch of psychopaths who ended up on top by a mix of most intelligent/paranoid/ruthless which never ends well or a benevolent dictator ending up deciding to hand it off to their idiot heir.
Oh FFS did you listen to or read their analysis of the election result?
FFS yes I did. Given that analysis explains how either the pollsters interpretation failed or, more commonly, the journalists failed to understand the caveats that we (or more importantly Labour leadership) should feel comfortable gambling on the results on the poll that Kimbers linked to (as interpreted by journalists).
Please explain how this poll has dealt with those areas where 538 say they failed? FFS they admit to their flaws although skip over them rapidly to point at others. So how certain are you this one is safe? Remember get it wrong and Labour get wiped out and the ERG will be let loose (okay so get it right and there is a risk but lets keep it simple).
I would suggest you should be taking it up with Kimbers rather than me since they are the ones simply using a single poll.
Which is why I done said.....
kimbers
Subscriber
Yeah I know that theres no consensus on what pushing for remain would do, but.....
Please explain how this poll has dealt with those areas where 538 say they failed? FFS they admit to their flaws although skip over them rapidly to point at others.
I watched and read their analysis and I have to concur that Trump was an outsider, he was the long shot and the votes prove that, they talk a lot about what probability means - which is that it's the expectation that one event will happen but that the other could happen too. That is what occurred. My life and work is data, I go with Nate as having the right handle on things - that is a professional opinion, I also agree that the UK FPTP system makes it really hard to predict as we don't/can't do decent constituency modelling of polls which is what they do in the US for state stuff.
Whats your stats objection to the 2016 US verdict from 538?
Whats your stats objection to the 2016 US verdict from 538?
It was an error on my part to directly respond to your decision to decide I was talking about a specific analysis at a specific time so to take a step back.
Why arent you asking Kimbers to justify their usage of a poll as interpreted by the Guardian to claim that there has been a switch in remain vs leave?
Once you deal with that it might be worth discussing the specifics of 538s Trump predictions.
Although for starters would need to understand why you decided to fixate on 538s predictions as opposed to the broader poll community bearing in mind Kimbers wasnt using 538 as a source and I just referenced trump being predicted to lose?
Then it might be worth discussing the link to 538 mea culpa which briefly covers their failings before looking more at others even greater failings and consider the relevance of that to this specific poll.
Had a item on the Opera home page from the express. It was all about stockpiling food for a no deal. They said there’s no need to worry. Then spoke about fears of food rotting in lorries at ports.
They describe a no deal as DISASTROUS and said that if you did stockpile you could donate your food once the THREAT had passed.
If the express don’t like no deal where on earth do you manage to find any **** wits that do?
@dissonance, you seem quite happy to ignore the fact that a large majority of Labour voters voted to remain. Why is that?
Err don’t willy wave with your Aircraft carrier kids 🙂
It’s really not
It really is, the EU has been at the forefront of pushing environmental legislation, I doubt many (if any) national or international legislative bodies have done as much. The ERG loonies who are wagging the governments dog, will destroy the good that has been done by the EU, in the bonfire of environmental and human rights legislation that they so lust for.
Your attempted "oh look a squirrel" moment, just further reinforces why brexit is the only game that matters, because action on every other important issue will be weakened by brexits consequences.
The ERG loonies who are wagging the governments dog, will destroy the good that has been done by the EU, in the bonfire of environmental and human rights legislation that they so lust for.
Britain could slash environmental and safety standards 'a very long way' after Brexit, Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg says
Another Brexit snapshot.
Mother's Day is the busiest single day of the year in retail.
This year it falls on March 31st.
2 days after our glorious future starts. The florist near us is in trouble. Huge orders and no way of knowing if he can fulfill them.
There's no way he can get the flowers in now and I'm sure flowers won't be given priority at the ports.
A single day can give you enough of a boost to carry you through the lean times.
Not much of an impact on the country but another small business in very real peril.
Britain could slash environmental and safety standards ‘a very long way’ after Brexit, Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg says
And when you think of the ‘health and safety gone maaad’ stories that the papers like to push I don’t think it would be hard to sell lowering safety standards to the masses, taking control etc,etc.
Or you could just show pictures of rubbish strewn places in Indian cities and people might get on-side. After all Attenborough managed to make people upset about plastic.
There are literally people who live in makeshift slums who scour landfill sites trying to find stuff to sell or collect enough recyclable stuff to sell in India.
Mogg really is a manipulative evil POS. And the great unwashed over at the express seem to think he's thier saviour.
They couldn't be more wrong if they tried.
Taking back control, lol!
Mogg really is a manipulative evil POS.
Concentration camp enthusiast too. Who votes for these people?
https://twitter.com/PiersDisappears/status/1096194536831926272
covered elsewhere but worth adding to the good news.
Fly-BMI, stating that brexit hasn't helped and that they are now in administration.
“Current trading and future prospects have also been seriously affected by the uncertainty created by the Brexit process, which has led to our inability to secure valuable flying contracts in Europe and lack of confidence around bmi’s ability to continue flying between destinations in Europe. Additionally, our situation mirrors wider difficulties in the regional airline industry which have been well documented.
Read more: https://www.thetravelmagazine.net/fly-bmi-in-administration.html#ixzz5fjI0V3Pk
Follow us: @TravelMagazine on Twitter | TheTravelMagazine on Facebook
And another filthy rich brexiter runs away rather than live with the mess he wanted.
Utter vile scumbag. He couldn't spend what he has in a thousand lifetimes, but still wants to keep more instead of paying his dues to a societal structure that he has benefited most from.
If isn’t helping the filthy rich just who the **** is it helping?
I actually think these morons believed their bullshit, they actually though the UK was in the driving seat and would win all these fabulous deals and would become nirvana. But now reality is biting, they are not man enough to stand up and say "sorry we were wrong" and instead are just running away, leaving the masses who don't have the option to move their wealth to tax havens, to suffer the consequences.
And again it just goes to prove, in most cases wealth and sucsess is based on opportunity and luck, and not on intelligence or any other fantasies that the those at the top tell us took them there.
I'd include questionable ethics and an absence of moral fibre with opportunity and luck.
It was always been said that irrespective of the outcome the rich are in a position to insulate themselves from it.
Post regulatory and legislative bonfire they will sit at arm's length and reap the benefits to the detriment of those left behind.
The people who were always going to be effected by the whole process are the most vulnerable in our society but the 'haves' prayed on their fears for their own gain.
Capitalism won't look so bad after a few decades of slavery.
If isn’t helping the filthy rich just who the **** is it helping?
It is helping them. But, that's because they can shift stuff around to take advantage of the "changes" ahead. See also those politicans pushing for a no deal Brexit, while setting up in rEU countries and encouraging their investors to do likewise (JRM & Redwood). See also those politicans with a foot in American business interests pushing for us to drop standards for them (Fox). See also, those politicans with interests in American companies looking for a drop in "protectionist" tariffs that keep Europe's ability to feed itself (Davies). See also those who are also citizens of Belize… they all have somewhere else to be when they're counting the money made from the "changes" ahead for the UK public (Banks, Wigmore etc).
Brexit is not a far right takeover, although that is the most likely end product. First and foremost it is a heist.
The ERG is not a faction within the Tories (as even some of the dimwits like Leadsom and Fox are starting to realise). They are a disaster capitalist sleeper cell. They are not wedded to a right wing ideology for any other reason than personal gain. They are a cancer that should have been cut out long ago.
Next on the continuum are the likes of Leadsom, Fox et al. These are complacent idiots who are wedded to a right wing ideology as they think the nation needs its resolve stiffening and some jolly hard work is all we need to succeed. They are stupid and have been played by the ERG.
And finally, we have the gammons in the street. They think we are getting National Socialism. We may well, but they’ll be nothing but expendable cannon fodder as they always are.
Ho ho it’s the Sun
But key documents quietly slipped out by the EU chiefs have debunked these hysterical predictions as the nonsense they always were.
They show scheduled flights and normal road traffic should be uninterrupted even if this country leaves without an agreement, as long as the UK returns the favour.
So in contrast to Remoaner propaganda, a No Deal Brexit would actually be far smoother than the doom-merchants would have us believe.
And Brexiteers who argued EU chiefs would ultimately act in their own self-interests by minimising disruption are proved right.
These crucial preparations have only been taken seriously in Brussels because the prospect of a No Deal has become increasingly realistic.
So the idea of taking No Deal off the table, as many MPs are demanding, would be madness.
Everything’s fine we don’t need to agree or plan just return the favour.
Assume that's the EUs no deal offer from a while ago, saying they are prepared to offer some continuity to protect their concerns which has the bonus of making our lives easier. A bit like saying "if you are foolish enough to jump off a cliff we'll grab you and share our parachute, but it's up to us when we let go"
Surely no border checks with EU means no border checks with the rest of the world?
We must satisfy the rules of the WTO.
Everything’s fine we don’t need to agree or plan just return the favour.
I can see it working out exactly like that. The impact of no deal is largely what the UK makes of it.
The impact of no deal is largely what the UK makes of it.
Anything that crosses our borders (goods, services, knowledge, people, data) relies on an agreement between us and wherever it goes. No deal means there's very little continuity in our arrangements with the EU or any of the nations we have agreement with via the EU. All we can do is make an offer/request/plea regarding a way to continue - the rest of the world can choose how to respond. We've already seen how some nations are setting out their position on what they'll be wanting from us in return. I can't see that this qualifies for 'what the UK makes of it' - more like how far we'll bend over.
I can’t see that this qualifies for ‘what the UK makes of it’ – more like how far we’ll bend over.
We'll see.
We’ll see
Hopefully we won't have to! 😉
Government ministers have already managed to derail the UK:Japan trade deal… FFS.
SENSATIONALIZED HEADLINE
Porsche in price fixing horror....but only if your buying in the UK
Price fixing or just being honest? Prices will go up if we go out badly expect the £ to tank and 10% increase seem like a bargain. If we have no deal then the tariff kicks in. You could call it a simple attempt to drum up sales but this will be on existing orders - that's right just because you ordered for a price don't expect to pay that in April!
Yep sounds perfectly fair - you need to commit to paying the actual costs before they build and ship it. They would much rather pull a RHD car from the line right now than have a glut of them to sell in a UK downturn.
At work we have been asked to ship stuff 2 months early to get it out of the UK before the end of March, I'm sure that is not uncommon at the moment.
SENSATIONALIZED HEADLINE
Porsche in price fixing horror….but only if your buying in the UK
That's one going to affect the poor.
That’s one going to affect the poor.
Had to cancel my 911, not happy here at Taxi mansion
All the stuff about Labour losing power if they back remain - they aren’t exactly in control under their current leader/stance are they?
New party being set up, do you reckon?
Looks like both parties are about to go into meltdown. Rumours are that a number of labour MP's are about to resign - jumping before they're pushed no doubt, given the not-at-all-Stalinist approach of 'The Leadership (Jeremy Corbyn demanding loyalty pledges surely has to set a new benchmark in irony?)
Radio 4 was saying there's a sort of right wing momentum equivalent of UKIP entryists that are trying to get the few non-mental Tory MPs deselected.
Who knows what'll happen? At the 59th minute of the eleventh hour, it'd be nice to have a political party that wasn't under the control of complete brexiteer maniacs. I live in hope...
So Steve Barclay who has achieved the impossible & made raab or Davis seem not the most useless Brexit secretarys is in Brussels to find a backstop solution- We're saved !
As for splitters, won't end well for any of the parties or the splittees!
Labour had been catching up in the latest polls too, I suspect thanks to the ergs latest antics
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1096841662754709505?s=19
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095313501868998656?s=19
https://twitter.com/KantarPublic/status/1095290950992228352?s=19
Surely no border checks with EU means no border checks with the rest of the world?
There is a difference between a border check and a customs declaration. Currently most (not all) EU goods don't' require a customs declaration but I think (and I may be wrong) that they are subject to the same sort of border checks as non-EU goods. This is because the biggest risk to UK duty revenues are through intra-EU smuggling of booze and fags.
So that article in the Sun isn't that daft. If the UK waves through EU goods with minimum customs declarations at the border and the EU does the same with goods coming from the UK, it will minimise any disruption.
I have a feeling that in the short term at least this might happen, as there is no practical alternative.
I guess this is relevant to both threads.
**** idiots, quit because of the handling of brexit I understand, but bringing up the bullshit antisemitism charges just shows their real motivation is not about doing the right thing for the electorate.
Corbyn needs removing, but for the right reasons, not some blatantly false charges trumped up by the tories and the right wing press, the quiters are just supporting the erg and their cronies by the way they are handling this.
Is it relevant to this thread? Doubt it. And aren't some of the "charges" from long standing Labour people under attack? I think I should avoid whatever other thread you refer to.
Is it relevant to this thread?
You think that labour mp's quitting with a major issue stated as labours brexit stance, isn't relevant? You will have to explain that to me.
Hopefully some sensible tories will be tempted to up sticks as well.
I know passionate remainers who voted Tory as they hate Corbyn more than May.
Why the stupid ****s didn’t vote lib I don’t know.
You will have to explain that to me.
By relevance I was talking about bringing lines such as … "bullshit antisemitism" … into this thread. It's quite a suspicious and specious thing to claim in any circumstances, never mind in a thread about how we organise how European countries should cooperate.
Why the stupid **** didn’t vote lib I don’t know.
Because it's pretty pointless to vote for a party whose sole principle is 'We want to sit at the table.'
Vote Green. **** it, vote UKIP. But vote for something.
you seem quite happy to ignore the fact that a large majority of Labour voters voted to remain. Why is that?
If you use certain polls yes eg the YouGov one. Note those arent hard data.
However, you can equally say majority of Labour constiutencies voted leave. Again its worth noting there is some fudging and guesswork about the overlaps.
The problem is the split between the urban areas (mostly pro remain but heavily clustered) vs the traditional heartlands (pro leave). Please one and you piss off the other.
Mildly interesting take on Brexit in the Guardian today based on the need for a complete reality check for the UK brought about as a result of Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/18/britain-brexit
good read mariner
Im not convinced that a no deal brexit dumping on the poorest is every going to be worth it though
However, you can equally say majority of Labour constiutencies voted leave.
Psst… "Labour constituencies" aren't just made up of Labour voters. They are not one party seats. Should Labour policy be led by the UKIP & Tory voters in Northern Labour heartlands? Seats where the BNP were doing pretty well not that long ago it should be noted.
Psst… “Labour constituencies” aren’t just made up of Labour voters.
Ah I know that. I also know what the average Labour vote is in those constituencies vs those who voted out. Guess which figure is bigger?
Also guess if Labour save the tories from their own mess will the tories say thanks or run a campaign blaming Labour for not leaving in those regions.