Anyone know what proportion of civils servants are remainers?
Pretty obvious that the great majority will be remainers.
78.98452839%.
Approximately.
😀
Gideons Gobshite was struggling tonight - it managed a half page on "brexit price slump (no, really) hits third of London homes" despite the fact that market was slowing well before the vote but then had the challenge of what to do with the unexpectedly strong PMI data - oops doesn't fit the narrative - but they eecked out "output races ahead as industry [b]scorns Brexshit[/b]".
Old George really had to work to spin that one and not a bad effort in the end!!!!
And was going on about Labour being the soft-brexit party - let's wait until Corbyn and MaccyD use that phrase without transitional being mentioned anyway - as transitional can be a couple of months...
as transitional can be a couple of months...
Or a decade !
Here's hoping
Or a decade !
with Corbyn in charge - you must be joking - out as soon as possible more likely.
Well the figures tell you that counter to the prevailing conventional wisdom, Labour tend to be more economically rational than the Tories (based on the national debts run up by the parties when in power) so I wouldn't be too sure of that.
Sounds like there are moves to change Labour's policy to stay in the single market permanently at the forthcoming conference. No idea how likely it is to get adopted.
A coup d'etat?
Odd definition of economically rational plus required the ability to ignore time lags in surpluses and deficits, IGM but apart from that.... carry on....p. s. Does that also mean that the austerity myth can be put to bed?
Watson is the real soft Brexshiter among the Big 3 - are there more than three outside the tokens?
Government spending hasn't been austere THM, but due to shoddy economic management people's pockets have been. So I'll agree with you a bit.
They can only keep blaming Labour for so long.
The point on time lags is valid, excepting that since 79 we have had very long periods of one party or the other - tending to nullify time lag effects.
You'll have to explain that one / the people's pocket bit?
What I mean is low (real) wage growth/recovery not government spending is causing people to feel poor.
Whether they are or not, well that's a different question really.
I appreciate that -!it was the causation I was struggling with no mention of the state vandalism of education anywhere
Now you've lost me. "state vandalism of education" - I know it makes sense to you, but I've missed your meaning. Probably my fault.
That said I've just found out the school expect parents to pay for the materials for lessons at our local state high school - that should come out of taxes. Not a problem for us to pay - not so good for some others.
No need to worry about how long things might take, you just need ordonnances... .
with no mention of the state vandalism of education anywhere
ess-aitch-one-tee, do we agree on something?
A coup d'etat?
They've been tried to oust him b4, it only makes him stronger!
But the more drawn outs complicated & obviously beyond Davis et al that even these preliminary negotiations become the more people will realise they were promised unicorns, but are getting an ass
But he's a conviction politician and hates the EU - the most convincing brexshiteer in the UK
If that's the case why did he vote remain?
Someone so principled, who's spent his career voting how the fk he likes, suddenly changed his mind?
Personally reckon hes pretty apathetic about the EU, he's far more focused on nationalising everything he can get his hands on
Because "conviction" is a BS narrative ?
If that's the case why did he vote remain?Someone so principled, who's spent his career voting how the fk he likes, suddenly changed his mind?
Personally reckon hes pretty apathetic about the EU, he's far more focused on nationalising everything he can get his hands on
some people are so naive...
Unless Corbyn actually says he wants a soft brexit, and doesn't mention transitional in there, then that will not be his policy - he will leave it for the public to be fooled into thinking labour want a soft brexit and perhaps be enthused/duped enough to vote for him, and then he can say "I never said that".
Just like the GE, along with the student fees obviously, which also duped a lot of people.
Trouble is he has gone back to being toxic to a lot of people, perhaps even more now as they feel he is a sneaky bugger as well as having toxic policies.
Oh I agree he was very ambiguous on Brexit in the GE he allowed the Tories to plough on with their hard brexit push & watched them lose their assured landslide as a result
hes also savvy enough to let the brexiters make a pigs ear of the whole thing and then look like the sensible option.
eg Starmers measured comments compared to Davis wild-eyed denial of reality & Fox's childish tantrums
(musnt forget 'Go Whistle' Johnson is out there in the world using his reputation to sell brexit too)
The oracle speaks
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Don't see the need for a referendum on this, after all we already had one and voted for it (it was between the questions on single market and ECJ on my ballot paper).
Dont remember it being multiple choice?
Binners you are in a Remainers echo chamber there by the sounds of it. As I unserstand it the UK is the EU's largest importer under WTO tariffs (ie from outside the EU). We have the systems to cope with that and we have to send 75% (or 80?) of the tariffs raised to the EU. Once out we get to keep those taxes raised at our expense (systems and consumers). We can extend those systems to the EU27 if we don't get a trade deal done by April 2019.
Common knowledge the the Brexit dept was overwhelmed by applications from pro-Leaver civil servants desperate to work on the most important and beneficial Government project of their lifetime.
As for the 10% of GDP "lost" due to Brexit that was a figure from totally discredited Osbourne/Cameron/HMT Project Armageddon document which assumed we would not sign a single new trade deal ever (during the period of the "analysis")
TMH we both know London property is under presure due to Osbourne's massive property tax hikes. I can rent in SW3 for 7 years before I pay an amount equal to the stamp duty of buying the same flat and that's without considering service charges (included in rent) and any mortgage costs. You've got to be very bullish on London property prices to buy.
Like I said many times, there will be no real progress until after the German Elections are settled and Govt formed. There will not be "sufficient progress" on the "financial settlement" from the EU Parliament's Perspective as we won't be paying their blackmail / extortion demand. We will pay what 's legally due - they need to prove what they think that is. I am sure we have our view, I certainly have mine
@cloudnine it was pretty clear that we'd be leaving the customs union and the single market. Leavers and Remainers said so repeatedly (Cameron, Osbourne, Boris, Gove ...)
So let's repeat again
THE Single Market IS the European Union - if you remain a member of one you are a member of the other
The Customs Union prevents members from agreeing their own external trade deals, agreeing such new deals was a core strategy goal of the Leave Campaign
Like I said many times, there will be no real progress until after the German Elections are settled and Govt formed. There will not be "sufficient progress" on the "financial settlement" from the EU Parliament's Perspective as we won't be paying their blackmail / extortion demand. We will pay what 's legally due - they need to prove what they think that is. I am sure we have our view, I certainly have mine
We all know you have your opinion, what it's based on it up for debate, bit too much of the Koolaid perhaps. The UK will not have fast trade deals and the UK does not need fast deals - those ones are the bad ones.
@igm claiming the Labour Party are the ones to be economically rational is erm ... something I would disagree most strongly with. History will show you a more economically rational Chancellor than McDonell had to go to the IMF for a bailout.
UK unemployment is 4.4% France 9.75% Hollande rejected austerity initially, found that didn't work. As a result France is saddled with a 3% budget deficit it MUST address due to € zone rules. Hollande splashed the cash tried to raise taxes (as Labour would do) and failed. Just as Labour would do. Would you rather have a job with static wages or be unemployed. That's the choice. Our economy was built on borrowed money, deleveraging (ie paying it back) is VERY painful and we still have far to go as a country and as individuals. A real terms pay cut is a small price to pay versus the alternative (eg Greece)
As for the 10% of GDP "lost" due to Brexit that was a figure from totally discredited Osbourne/Cameron/HMT Project Armageddon document which assumed we would not sign a single new trade deal ever (during the period of the "analysis")
I don't ever remember that figure. Various studies showed ranges based on different assumptions. There was some bloke on here, however, arguing that the economy was going into a 4% recession in one year which was very funny. Miss those kind of mega remoans.
We will pay what 's legally due
Not sure about that since that answer would be £00.00 which will be several billions out IME.
Common knowledge the the Brexit dept was overwhelmed by applications from pro-Leaver civil servants desperate to work on the most important and beneficial Government project of their lifetime.
Jambafact and a truly delusional one at that!, even the Brexit bugle disagrees
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/24/hundreds-civil-service-jobs-forbrexitnegotiators-have-not-filled/
As for the 10% of GDP "lost" due to Brexit that was a figure from totally discredited Osbourne/Cameron/HMT Project Armageddon document which assumed we would not sign a single new trade deal ever (during the period of the "analysis")
Are we sure that want the academic study that jambs linked to ? Im sure I had to post that up a few weeks ago to remind everyone
Anyone can read the study - as I said, they, like others presented various scenarios. There worse case scenario was 6% not 10%. Jambas figure is an exaggeration.
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TMH the 10% comes from the letter quoted by @cloudnine, if it's 6% in the original Project Armageddon document then even better. Both numbers are bollix.
jambalaya - Member - Block User
@cloudnine it was pretty clear that we'd be leaving the customs union and the single market. Leavers and Remainers said so repeatedly (Cameron, Osbourne, Boris, Gove ...)
FFS. I do try and stay away from this thread with its faux-insider sneering and bshitting but this really takes the biscuit for selective remembering. Remainers warned we'd have to leave the customs union and the single market, Leavers repeatedly assured us we wouldn't. Cake and eat it anyone?
indeed johnners
http://www.open-britain.co.uk/boris_johnson_id_vote_to_stay_in_the_single_market
even gove reckoned we could stay in the single market
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36074853
even the alt-right press were telling us it was the best thing to do
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiF6YvBz4fWAhWDDcAKHZooCwEQFggoMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fhitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk%2F2017%2F06%2Fi-have-always-favoured-the-norway-option-for-leaving-the-eu-what-i-said-in-2003.html&usg=AFQjCNEUr1r2p_fybf7DW-v_uVoxMOxiTQ ]
we are all eating cake remember
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the brexiters, their puppetmasters in the press all said we could have the Norway option
turns out they were lying, who'd a thunk it !??!
those Vote Leave types never mentioned a £50000000000 exit bill either
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The in/our if the SM and CU is a false argument
We were always giving up membership
We were always working out how to continue to have access
It's just sloppy terminology - often deliberate e.g. hard Brexshit - that's to blame
Hundreds of pages ago I posted a great link summarising it and explaining why the debate was mostly BS
[b]From the outset, it is important that the Government, Parliament and the public are clear about the distinction between ‘access to’ and ‘membership of’ the Single Market. [/b]Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. [b]However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— are EU Member States.[/b] The EEA states only enjoy partial membership, because the EEA agreement does not include a customs union. On the other hand, Turkey’s inclusion in a customs union with the EU does not entail the free movement of services, people or capital. Fundamentally, full membership of the Single Market is predicated upon acceptance of all Four Freedoms.
[b]This principle is in tension with the Government’s commitment to maintaining liberalised trade with the EU while also curbing the free movement of persons and the reach of the CJEU, via a bespoke arrangement[/b]
It's remoaner BS to mix this up and pretend we didn't mean this/that or laziness in not reading government docs like this which were freely available ahead of the vote
Membership of v access to. That's all anyone needs to remember
Repeat 100x
Not posted in here (32k posts?!)..but I'd be fascinated to know your source of 'common knowledge' of this...
Common knowledge the the Brexit dept was overwhelmed by applications from pro-Leaver civil servants desperate to work on the most important and beneficial Government project of their lifetime.
lol we all would, I think it's from the Jackanory news agency or possibly the What I want to be true library. It's all just bluster to make a shit situation seem better and to try and convince people that the majority want full on Brexit.
Also given the current headlines there appear to be a couple of things going on...
Challenge to May, anyone think she could survive it? Especially if a majority of Tory MP's are pro EU and they put forward a Pro EU leader? Whats the next move after that?
Talk of a £50bn exit bill - Sunday Times Source above - it's either going with the leadership idea to finish May off or to soften people up to a £30bn bill being a victory.
For reference 50bn would pay for close to 6 years of EU membership with nothing in return.
Given how powerful the bus figures are how would an ad campaign suggesting that Brexit will cost far more and deliver nothing, with no extra money to UK services?
Will be a bold PM who signs off on that deal wouldn't you all say?
Almost makes leaving a stupid idea....
It's remoaner BS to mix this up and pretend we didn't mean this/that or laziness in not reading government docs like this which were freely available ahead of the vote
Yeah because we all sit around reading government documents....
The BS is from the leave camp who on many many occasions contradicted that (see my links above) on TV, in the papers