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It doesn’t matter if gap is 50 or 10 points in the poll.
It doesn't affect who is in power. It matters to how much we should trust predictions of who is "unelectable"
He can't force a GE so he can't be elected.
As simple as that.
He can’t force a GE so he can’t be elected.
As simple as that.
Neither could any other Labour leader.
This is a national crisis, and requires leadership from somewhere. He is not a leader.
He can't really do anything. The problem with democracy is that you have to gain support. If he stands up and says 'screw it, we support remain' then he'll lose what, 30% of his voter base? Impossible.
Labour have the same.problem that the Tories have, which is that Brexit split the country on a previously non-existent axis. Both sets of voters are split on this, but not on other issues. It's impossible to solve, the difference is that the Tories are in charge so they are the ones whose neck is on the block. It'd make no sense for Labour to put theirs on as well.
This is about far more than party politics. It's constitutional.
Are you saying they’re only popular when they’re trying to be popular? At other times it’s just too much effort?
It is not worth the effort rather than too much effort. Time and resources are limited so be silly to squander them on trying to get higher in a poll when an election could be years away.
Both sets of voters are split on this, but not on other issues. It’s impossible to solve, the difference is that the Tories are in charge so they are the ones whose neck is on the block. It’d make no sense for Labour to put theirs on as well.
This is about far more than party politics. It’s constitutional.
Exactly. These are contradictory statements. At some point both parties have to realise this is a constitutional issue that transcends party politics, and that means Labour have to stop treating it as an opportunity to watch the Tories making a hash of it. Labour, and the other parties, have to step back from the political games, stop being afraid of what their base vote will think and start doing the basic job of Parliament. In this case the basic job is to ensure that No Deal is avoided.
I don't think a 2nd ref, or a GE, will break the deadlock.
What's the Queen up to these days? Now that would really be 'taking back control'. 😉
Excuse the potentially stupid question, but what happens with the N/S Irish border in a No Deal Brexit Scenario? There would have to be border checks wouldn't there?
The only thing that Corbyn could do now that would be useful is a spot of murder-suicide at the next PM questions.
If he stands up and says ‘screw it, we support remain’ then he’ll lose what, 30% of his voter base?
And pick up as many from the opposition and above all people who currently have no-one to vote for. Anyone who is pro European a wants caring capitalism (because Labour aren't and never were real socialists) has no one to vote for. So they don't vote.
In this case the basic job is to ensure that No Deal is avoided.
Which is exactly what they will do when they vote to revoke A50 in March as the only other option will be to go with No Deal. I literally have money on it (only 5/1 but nevermind)
And pick up as many from the opposition and above all people who currently have no-one to vote for.
Yeah, of course, did you find that one in a cracker?
This is about far more than party politics
Exactly, but Labour / Corbyn are only thinking about party politics. If he had integrity he would resolutely argue for a specific approach, whichever best refelcted the general Labour consensus, even if it risked loosing him soem votes next election. To be honest I think showing strngth and integrity would gain him more votes than he'd lose from people not liking waht solution he comes up with.
edit. so basically what Martin Hutch said ^ while i was type
As someone said further up, I'm in total despair at the general behaviour of the lily-livered politicians at the head of both parties.
Anyone who is pro European a wants caring capitalism (because Labour aren’t and never were real socialists) has non-one to vote for. So they don’t vote.
Liberal party?
If he stands up and says ‘screw it, we support remain’ then he’ll lose what, 30% of his voter base? Impossible.
Ok, so that's the unfounded assertion of a randomer on the internet. Did you have any basis for that claim? How many votes will be gain from such a stance?
Which is exactly what they will do when they vote to revoke A50 in March as the only other option will be to go with No Deal. I literally have money on it (only 5/1 but nevermind)
That was my thought too, but it's starting to get a bit squeaky bum time. Screwing up that vote is well within the competence threshold of this Parliament.
but what happens with the N/S Irish border in a No Deal Brexit Scenario? There would have to be border checks wouldn’t there?
Yes. The unicorn-mongers have dealt with this by saying that they wouldn't introduce checks, and why should the EU...but that is patently bollocks given the lack of customs checks with a third-party state threatens the integrity of the single market.
How many votes will be gain from such a stance?
Dunno, but ironically the Tories are worried about Brexit losing them youth votes. I'd have imagined that Labour could also do that calculation and balance lost votes from xenophobic morons against gained votes from young people, who want a future.
SNP in Scotland maybe, Kerley, but the Liberals have disappointed so many so often their MPs would do better just joining one side or the other and being part of one clique or another in the major two.
http://liberal.org.uk/policies/
The way the British and US electoral systems work means there is no place for more than two parties. You need a multi-round election system and/or a degree of proportional representation for third parties to have any infuence.
It is also worth bearing in mind that large proportion of voters don't change their vote (or only rarely) and capturing a large proportion of the younger voters could lock in quite an advantage for the long term future.
Of course most politicians don't think past next week.
It is the fact that they, and we, are still talking about the voting consequences of making the right decision which shows the failure of our main political parties. It's like convening a focus group to iron out the demographics of your response while Putin is bombing Manchester.
Leadership is about giving direction, not taking it.
Excuse the potentially stupid question, but what happens with the N/S Irish border in a No Deal Brexit Scenario? There would have to be border checks wouldn’t there?
Yes, as this would now be the external border of the EU.
But... the good Friday agreement is a legally binding international treaty which clearly states that there can be no physical infrastructure on the border. Hence the contradiction, and the (legal) neccessity for the backstop.
The bottom line is that the EU will defend the interests of its member state above the interests of the one thats just thrown its toys out of the pram and flounced off. They simply will not budge on this. Its totally non-negotaible. As they've pointed out repeatedly for the last 2 years.
To the EU, the Irish government and the vast majority of people of Northern Ireland the good Friday agreement, and peace in Ireland, is absolutely sacrasanct. And its a sign of the sheer bloody brainless recklessness of the Brexiteers that they think sacrificing peace in Ireland 'a price worth paying'
Labour have the same problem that the Tories have, which is that Brexit split the country on a previously non-existent axis.
No, the axis was there - it was just much better hidden becasue even the thickest racists knew that it was generally frowned upon to be totally open about xenophobia. Howeevr all the anti-immigration rhetoric empowered them and made the division much more publically open - people have now come down solidly on one side of the fence or the other and are digging in, entrenched in their beliefs and conspiracy theories, ignorant of facts.
It's not a good place to be in.
Can anyone find the link that was posted earlier (in the last couple of days) the article about trading on WTO rules. Trailed back but can't see it.
Thanks
Was it one of these?
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/no-deal-the-wto-option/
https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45112872
Can anyone find the link that was posted earlier (in the last couple of days) the article about trading on WTO rules. Trailed back but can’t see it.
Remember we need to reapply to join the WTO. And there are only 3 countries in the world I think trading solely on WTO. That is where that starting point is.
</lurk>
Or one of the WTO articles here ? - I forget which was originally linked, but it's somewhere in the blog
https://www.explaintrade.com
<lurk>
The 30% figure wasn't an assertion, it was a total guess, hence the question mark and the way the sentence was phrased. Of course I have no idea beyond that. But feel free to make a different guess.
And pick up as many from the opposition
The key point is that a GE is not a single issue vote. What if you are a neoliberal but pro remain? How can you vote Labour? I voted Labour even though I am remain. Thiswhat I meant by a constitutional problem.
If house prices do tumble it will just make them cheaper for foreign people to buy .
This ultimately will put prices back , up further shafting the British people.
Even if your house devalues at £800 a month it’s no different to losing £800 paying rent.
Saw this earlier on a forum in a thread about house buying earlier. The long list of people who said they'd vote out or made it clear they'd vote out without saying as much in the first few pages of this thread don't post on this thread anymore, but it's clear they haven't changed their minds.
Edit: If I'd still lived in Wales at the last election I'd have voted Plaid, Molgrips.
And there are only 3 countries in the world I think trading solely on WTO.
One. Mauritania. And I'm not certain they still are any more.
I'd like to think that the likes of Soubry, Morgan and Clarke might be having a cosy cuppa with Starmer and maybe Cable and trying to get some kind of Unity Opposition going. If we can't have existing parties governing in the national interest (which is to cancel Brexit), and if we can't have a government of unity to get past this, then couldn't the grown ups just put aside their (temporarily insignificant) differences for a short time?
I live in hope. There is only one outcome that is in the national interest - and that is to forget this whole silly mess and go back, cap in hand.
Racist xenophobia swung the referendum. That is fairly sweeping. Don't suppose you have any polling results or surveys to back up that claim?
My question was aimed at Crazy legs.
Racist xenophobia swung the referendum. That is fairly sweeping. Don’t suppose you have any polling results or surveys to back up that claim?
Hi Ninfan!
How's it going?
It's been a while, mate, but glad you're back.
Edit: If I’d still lived in Wales at the last election I’d have voted Plaid, Molgrips.
I was tempted but in my constituency they were far behind, which I've again shows why FPTP is so bad.
As it was my Labour vote was worth a lot and help depose a Tory MP which is a good result even if I preferred Plaid offer Labour.
I’ve just seen, on another forum, a solution proposed to solve the Irish border problem.
Basically the RoI rejoins the UK.
So simple, can’t think why no one is talking about this option in the news.
The thing is, I can no longer tell if it’s just trolling.
Racist xenophobia swung the referendum. That is fairly sweeping. Don’t suppose you have any polling results or surveys to back up that claim?
There was plenty at the time of people citing immigration as a reason to vote, it's a reason it's been in every tory manifesto for years - though despite having the tools to address some of the concerns they did nothing - just today they dropped the 10k target.
I’ve just seen, on another forum, a solution proposed to solve the Irish border problem.
Basically the RoI rejoins the UK.
So simple, can’t think why no one is talking about this option in the news.
The thing is, I can no longer tell if it’s just trolling.
Run it by Karen Bradley - she'd probably think it was a go-er.
though despite having the tools to address some of the concerns they did nothing
Thats unfair. They sent a few advertising vans around towns trying to stoke things up.
Edukator sort of outlines what he thinks Corbyn should do - no one else has given anything even slightly specific. Just as before - banal generalisations.
His party is split - he comes out strongly for remain then the party splits due to what I refer to as the Burnham tendency - those who fear losing leave votes even thos we know this is rubbish. there are well over a hundred of them - and his internal critics will intensify their attacks on him plus he becomes "the enemy of democracy" in the press
The current polling seems to I dictate that labour are losing support to the lib Dems, which could I indicate that the fence sitting is starting to backfire.
Corbyn can say that he respected the referendum, but two years have passed, and as we are now heading to a no deal Brexit (thanks to a broken Tory party, with an intransigent PM), which does not remotely resemble what was suggested by the Leave campaign two years ago, and will damage those that Labour represent, he thinks we should stop the clock and cancel A50. He won't. He wants Labour members to think that he is following "their" policy approach, but it's all bullshit… he wants Brexit, and doesn't mind if it's a no deal Brexit. In fact, a more damaging Brexit suits him just fine, as he has more chance of gaining power at the next election after we have left.
The current polling seems to I dictate that labour are losing support to the lib Dems, which could I indicate that the fence sitting is starting to backfire.
Which unless we have an election the impact of is sweet _ all, If an election is called then the platform they stand on will be much more important. It really depends if the next election falls this or the other side of Brexit.
If Corbyn shits himself over Brexit, remainers will remember even in 2022, like they did with the lib Dems and student fees.
Labour is going to be split either way, Corbyn would just rather end up quietly in the anti-eu camp.
like they did with the lib Dems and student fees.
So who are they going to vote for? Many will never vote Lib Dem again
In fact, a more damaging Brexit suits him just fine, as he has more chance of gaining power at the election after we have left.
Yeah, of course that is what he wants to happen.
Tick. Tock. (I put that on for you as you seem to have left it off your last post)
Corbyn Still. Didn't. Win. He stood on a 'we'll implement Brexit best' platform and still lost. What is it they say about conducting the same experiment and expecting a different result?
If this shit show goes to the wire and he pulls it out of the bag I will sing his praises for the rest of my life but I'm afraid I don't have much faith.
We need an opposition, at the moment we have complicity.
Corbyn Still. Didn’t. Win. He stood on a ‘we’ll implement Brexit best’ platform and still lost. What is it they say about conducting the same experiment and expecting a different result?
You could say the same about inferring brexit intentions from a general election which was on a massive range of issues.
Health sec Matt Hancock on newsnight yesterday said with a chuckle that the NHS was now the world's largest buyer of fridges to handle medicine stockpiles in case of a no deal brexit.
There's so much insanity in that, even worse plenty of Leavers still think no deal is a good thing.
Health sec Matt Hancock on newsnight yesterday said with a chuckle that the NHS was now the world’s largest buyer of fridges to handle medicine stockpiles in case of a no deal brexit.
He was backtracking on his commitment that people would not die on PM yesterday.
Liz Truss reported on saying in cabinet we need to have cobra meetings every day after recess to deal with no-deal brexit. To need national emergency commitee meetings for something we are about to do of the governments own choosing is ridicolous!
If Corbyn went Pro-remain, bit of a gamble but would probably achieve far more than he otherwise would do. So many traditional labour supporters see him as too left-wing so he'd never be PM anyway. At least this way he'd be remembered as doing something useful
The fact that the government has basically done zero planning so far for a No Deal that is looking more likely by the day, and that they've put the sum total of £2 billion aside to cover everything that might crop up, would suggest that they absolutely no concept of the scale of the potential problems.
We really are being governed by total imbeciles
he wants Brexit, and doesn’t mind if it’s a no deal Brexit.
Where did you hear that?
All this talk that Labour should switch to remain, that's just wishful thinking. Progressives have often voted Labour because Labour policies have traditionally also been progressive, but we are now finding out that we have no real progressive party. Well, we do, but FPTP stops that happening.
Labour does not need to "switch to Remain", Labour is in favour of stopping Brexit. It is only a tiny minority of people in key positions that are pro Leave. Unfortunately that includes the leader. If you can't read that from his actions and words, then he is obviously a very able politician. The opposite position is that he isn't pro Leave, but is ineffective. You decide. He's lost my vote, and if we're still talking about his long game on Brexit in March, I suspect I will be far from alone in wishing I could vote Labour, but knowing I can not.
The fact that the government has basically done zero planning so far for a No Deal that is looking more likely by the day, and that they’ve put the sum total of £2 billion aside to cover everything that might crop up, would suggest that they absolutely no concept of the scale of the potential problems.
We really are being governed by total imbeciles
They shouldn't have to deal with a no deal, that should be a line that will not be crossed. Ever.
They shouldn’t have to deal with a no deal, that should be a line that will not be crossed. Ever.
If only they could have legislated to rule that one out. through their own incompetence they now have to prepare for it (while refusing to consider a 2nd vote)
The fact that No Deal is even a possibility, and now a scary potential reality, stands as a testement to the complete incompetence of the government, and the total uselessness of an opposition (in name only) who's job it apaprently is to hold them to account
To need national emergency commitee meetings for something we are about to do of the governments own choosing is ridicolous!
No deal isn't the governments choice. It's something that parliament might impose if May's deal isn't voted through. In reality the goverment would love to remain. Only thing is, all those pesky voters voting to leave.
And all Mps are off for 2 weeks. 100 days to Brexit and with no agreement in place they bugger off.
How you lot are not down the streets, protesting and making your voice heard is depressing.
He was backtracking on his commitment that people would not die on PM yesterday.
Yes - I noticed that too.
Only a few weeks ago I was traducing them for saying 'at least no one will actually die' was the most positive thing that anyone could say about Brexit. And now he can't even say that with a straight face.
Incidentally - has anyone yet come up with a specific and non-fantastical reason why Brexit, of any kind, is a good idea?
Racist xenophobia swung the referendum. That is fairly sweeping. Don’t suppose you have any polling results or surveys to back up that claim?
But it's obviously true. Even if the racists made up only 2% of the vote, take them away and Leave lose. But they aren't 2%, they're most likely well over 50% of Leave voters. I bet if you took away the people who voted specifically to keep coloured people out Leave would lose, or the people who voted to stop their grandchildren bring conscripted into a European army.
Absolute ****ing joke.
Only thing is, all those pesky voters voting to leave.
Ignore them. Simple.
It is only a tiny minority of people in key positions that are pro Leave. Unfortunately that includes the leader.
But you are aware that the Labour party and its leader have adopted the six tests that cannot be satisfied? That to me suggests a move to remain whilst appearing to keep everyone happy.
I think the rhetoric about letting Labour negotiate a better deal is to give them the chance to try then prove it's not possible, without being blamed for simply being reactionary against the Tories.
Only thing is, all those pesky voters voting to leave.
Ignore them. Simple.
So it's not just leavers who trot out meaningless soundbites then...
Labour can say that May's deal doesn't pass those tests, vote against her deal, yet allow a no deal Brexit to take place because time is up. Labour MPs, members and voters are being taken for fools.
So it’s not just leavers who trot out meaningless soundbites then…
Oh, don't worry mate, I really do mean it.
If I had my way I would make them walk around in big pointy hats with placards around their necks, but apparently that would be undemocratic too.
So many traditional labour supporters see him as too left-wing
Umm... Do you mean one of those traditions that seems old but in reality only started in 1997?
But they aren’t 2%, they’re most likely well over 50% of Leave voters. I bet if you took away the people who voted specifically to keep coloured people out Leave would lose, or the people who voted to stop their grandchildren bring conscripted into a European army.
I wouldn't back that bet. A lot of people were conned, my old man has changed his mind - of course that's bugger all to do with the fact he doesn't watch RT these days since he realised how biased it was.
Just to re balance myself and remind me what a dilemma we are in I had another look at the wiki page with the breakdown of the referendum result.
Once you take Scotland out of it the voting pattern in England and Wales is pretty clear. If that had been a general election with the votes counted by constituency that would be considered an landslide. When two thirds of labour constituencies voted leave you can see why Labour can't come out as remain regardless of the leanings of the party leader.
The fact that they have voted for the impossible does not really make it any better. I am not aware of any evidence that anyone could have negotiated a better deal than May did. Certainly not Corbyn.
In hindsight we should have had a government of national unity, collectively negotiated the best deal we could and then put that deal or remain back to the electorate with no deal not being an option.
Cameron has an awful to to answer for.
troops on the streets. sounds like project fear to me...
Oh, don’t worry mate, I really do mean it.
Doesn't matter, it's still not possible due to the tactics of the game.
Cameron has an awful to to answer for.
And May.
And Corbyn
Just started stockpiling my hayfever medicine. Brexit will be bad enough without sneezing uncontrollably.
Drac
Subscriber
Absolute **** joke.
I actually think they're going to do it. They're going to crash us out with no deal. Up until now I had some misplaced sense that someone would do the right thing and put an end to it all.
The truth is they are all so belligerent and blinded by party politics, that they'll crash us out just so they don't lose votes to the opposition (or other smaller parties)
We're staring into the abyss now 🙁
What if someone were to table a motion to prohibit no-deal?
around 1/3 of labour mps back leave because they are scared of the racists in their constituencies. If Corbyn comes out as strongly pro remain the party will split or he will be deposed.
This is the root of labours problems over this - outright loons like Hoey and the carven capitulation of many of its MPs to a small number of vocal racists. Blair sewed the seeds of this with his focus groups and following right wing newspaper led public opinion rather than leading. Far too many labour MPs would rather die than have a principle or origionalo thought and far too many labour supporters blindly swallow anti Corbyn propaganda
Once before I challenged you to find one piece from the last ten years showing Corbyn wants a hard brexit - again no one can come up with one.
But you are aware that the Labour party and its leader have adopted the six tests that cannot be satisfied? That to me suggests a move to remain whilst appearing to keep everyone happy.
Yep, it does exactly that. Just now waiting for May to put up a vote for No Deal (after her deal gets rejected) and that will be the end of No Deal. We then revoke A50 as only option and Tories look like they screwed it up all by themselves (which they did). No one can blame Labour or Corbyn for any part of it (well apart from Binners obviously) and we all go home for tea.
A lot of people still don't seem to realise, but Labour's six tests only apply to Tory blue unicorn brexit, they don't apply to Labour red unicorn brexit.
What if someone were to table a motion to prohibit no-deal?
Who though?
Whoever blocks brexit, despite being a hero, is finished and their party is finished. It's political suicide to be the person who makes that happen. Both Corbyn and May know this. Whichever party ultimately led to brexit being scrapped will be consigned to the history books. the only possible hope is cross party consensus between the non nutter tories and rest of the parties
Can someone un-ban TeamHurtmore? I need someone to reassure me about the grown-ups stepping in to sort everything out.