In addition to EU nationals leaving there's also the fact that many people from the UK living abroad who would normally come back in due course will now never come back. That's certainly my situation. I'm ready to move back to Scotland but I'm not bringing my foreign girlfriend and my foreign kids back to the UK until the lunacy subsides.
I'm also not bringing my degree level education (paid for by the UK) and I also won't be bringing back the not insubstantial savings we've accrued working abroad over the last decade.
The UK could be about to experience a brain drain never before seen in a western country.
I'm missing the point, Jamba. Companies have scammed exchange rates for years.
Well that's a bit of a shocker considering airport rates are supposed to be 1:1 as leople here like to post (hence my ripost). Eurotunnel are a bit daft though as you can just buy the ticket on either site although possibly it requires a "local" credit card
@kimbers well according to head f-wit Ryan all flights to the EU are going to dissapear 🙂 Airbus is in a dreadful mess, layoffs and profits way down, A380 orders particularly poor and issues with engines for the new plane, nought to do with Brexit.
@tmh prior "studies" have been far too broad, did not break out immigration properly by country and by job type and compensation and hence tax paid. You need to do that and then start stratifying where visas woukd be granted and where they would not and/or only short term visas. Also any study needs to FULLY cost impact on housing, infrastructure and helath service provision.
looking good, fairly obvious really.
Problem is since Maybot gutted customs & borders the review becomes that much harder....
ID cards on the cards, ironic considering its why Davis quit gov last time
Loved Johnsons response to the review- basically WTF?, no one told me. 😆
No wonder bariner & the rest of the EU are frustrated at our lack of progress, the brexiters STILL have no plan.
That's why easyJet have set up their new offices in Austria and moved 100 planes to be registered there.
Even if by some miracle, the brexies get their act together, it will be too late for many industries.
Still onwards and upwards stuff upper lip, Dunkirk spirit etc
PS here's a great whine from Dyson....
http://www.fwi.co.uk/news/brexiteer-dyson-warns-government-not-cut-farm-subsidies.htm
The UK could be about to experience a brain drain never before seen in a western country.
It has been seen, Irelands main export for decades was people, hence the diaspora. However you are right in that if brexit goes badly the UK will suffer a major brain drain.
Eurotunnel are a bit daft though as you can just buy the ticket on either site although possibly it requires a "local" credit card
Actually the really daft thing is I paid £70 (ish) for my crossing a couple of weeks ago. Have the prices gone up for the holidays by any chance?
PS - if the study does come back saying EU migration and perhaps even FoM is good for the UK and good for UK citizens / workers, will you join us Jamba? You know I'd never shut the door on you, you old prodigal.
Jammers... serious question.... instead of just quoting figures and statistics, have you got anything to say about the social cost of this car crash? The way we look to the world? About the real people who's lives are being ruined by the rise of this small-minded, petty and really nasty nationalism?
Hate crimes are up 85% in a year in manchester. It's the same all over the country?
To quote your hero, is that all "a price worth paying?"
No wonder bariner & the rest of the EU are frustrated at our lack of progress, the brexiters STILL have no plan.
It's been stalling tactic after stalling tactic. Pointless court case; back of an envelope "plan" delivered at the 11th hour; hey let's have a General Election; now we have to deal with hung parliament; negotiations finally started, "here's our demands" - "you can't have them" - "oh, ok then"; and now we're embarking on a study on immigration to tell us something we already know.
A year on from the referendumb, we're no clearer and no nearer. Even if I thought leaving the EU was a fantastic idea, the people supposed to be organising it are clearly utterly incompetent. Either that or as someone else said earlier it's brinkmanship. Even the most rabid of Leaver can't possibly still believe this is going well, surely.
A380 orders particularly poor and issues with engines for the new plane, nought to do with Brexit
Agreed. It's the wrong plane. Good for the UK - Asia run but nowt else really. (IMHO - I am not an aviation expert)
if brexit goes badly the UK will suffer a major brain drain
Like we've got surplus to spare in the first place.
I said brinkmanship Cougar - others may have too.
Could equally be incompetence.
Or as you point out, reluctance. It does look like they are trying to do anything other than sort out Brexit.
a great whine from Dyson
Nice pun
a great whine from Dyson
Nice pun
Dyson vacuum cleaners,they [list]really suck[/list]
I said brinkmanship Cougar - others may have too.Could equally be incompetence.
Or as you point out, reluctance. It does look like they are trying to do anything other than sort out Brexit.
Thanks for that - it's not a term I'd heard before. Every day's a school day (for some folk).
"Reluctance" seems the most plausible to me. Let's put aside "the will of the people" for a minute as we all know that's propaganda. The current government has been given a large amount of money by rich businessmen like Aaron Banks and newspaper owners to make Brexit happen. That's the real reason we're here, to turn Britain into a tax haven for billionaires. So they're under a real pressure to make it work.
The problem is twofold. The first is that with every day that passes it's becoming more apparent that it cannot work in any sort of meaningful way that makes us better off; we've been looking at "least worst" scenarios for months now. "Hard Brexit" is off the table thanks to the GE and "soft Brexit" will never be allowed by the EU. The only realistic option available to us is "no deal." And that sounds like a whole barrel o' yuks.
The second is that fundamentally the likes of Davis, BloJo and May are self-serving bastards. Their necks are on the block here. And deep down, they know we're ****ed. They're trying to whip up public support with increasingly desperate rhetoric ("Brexit means Brexit / the will of the people / work together / let's give 350m to the NHS / red white and blue" etc etc) and slowly but surely the people are seeing through the veneer. And none of them, not one of them, wants to be the one who pulled the trigger. The one who goes down in history as the person responsible, the person accountable. Not one of them wants to commit career suicide.
It's a dichotomy. They're damned if they do, and damned if they don't. Faced with a referendum-a-like binary choice of leave / remain, neither of these options mean that they get to walk away looking good. And up there in their ivory towers, suddenly going "yeah, we've changed our minds" is going to unleash a career-ending right-wing backlash that they're terrified of.
There's only two ways I can see out of this. One is brinkmanship (thanks again). Run the country into the ground until all but the most fervent Brexiteer goes "oh shit"; and I'll hazard that there is a very large percentage of folk who voted Leave based on misinformation and now regret it (no joke, I heard two old ladies today who both voted Leave because they thought they were getting pounds, shillings and pence back).
The other is as I've said right since the start, offer a third option which is to remain in the EU but for Parliament to review and address the reasons people wanted to leave in the first place (eg our immigration policy), most of which we have a good deal of control over and choose not to exercise. This will surely please more people than any other option whist allowing Parliament to escape with some shreds of dignity. The only fly in the ointment here is the people I mentioned in the second paragraph who are bankrolling all of this, which might explain why they're opting for brinkmanship instead.
TL;DR, the current government are in a bind and they are either very, very clever, or very, very stupid. From the outside looking in, it's tough to call either way.
Dyson vacuum cleaners,they
really suck
Since Dyson turned out to be a Leaver, mine's just been gathering dust.
Binners I have a Dutch friend who has settled here who is going through exactly the turmoil covered by that article. Its awful. The worst thing is that he knows that there are people who voted out, who he classes(/ed) friends who voted out with not a thought of what it could do to his very real personal situation.
Binners I have a Dutch friend who has settled here who is going through exactly the turmoil covered by that article. Its awful. The worst thing is that he knows that there are people who voted out, who he classes(/ed) friends who voted out with not a thought of what it could do to his very real personal situation.
"Yeah, but not you though, you're ok, it's all those other immigrants."
Yep although even my leaver friends are far too nice to actually say that, that's the assumed implication. And I can't disagree with my Dutch freind for feeling that way.
Ps great post earlier cougar. Agree wholeheartedly.
I am increasingly confident we are going to see the wheels come off this whole thing soon (maybe not all at once, but one at a time)
Oh yeah, and brinkmanship only works assuming we have any position to cause damage (to the EU). Unfortunately for the Tories, we don't. The EU know this and the Tories know this.
What a bunch of absolute ****s the British look like at present. We deserve it.
We do have the capacity to cause damage to the EU- in fact we already have. It's just, we can't do it without also harming ourselves. The question you, and the EU negotiators have to ask is are our glorious leaders stupid or sociopathic enough to do so.
(yes, probably)
Yes fair point NW. I do not believe that they are either stupid or sociopathic enough to go through, but clearly they are reckless enough to get themselves (the Tory party) into this in the first place.
Also what would going through with it actually mean anyway? In the medium term, brexit is un-implementable. And the medium term is a long time in politics. Hence i suppose, "transition".
Nice party Coug's?
The para on Aaraon Banks and the government was very amusing....Overen by the idea that any politician goes out of his/her way to run the country into the ground.
My party seems very staid in contrast,
Oh yeah, and brinkmanship only works assuming we have any position to cause damage (to the EU).
I was meaning more in terms of self-harm than harm to others. If people want something which is bad for them you can say "no" or you can promise it to them and let them find out the harm for themselves.
My party seems very staid in contrast,
Which party would that be? I've lost track.
Ah I see what you mean cougar, I suppose you could view it either way.
Thm, I guess the willingness of those in power to run the country into the ground, is proportional to their level of cowardice with respect to facing the reality of the electorate's wrath.
The longer it goes on, the worse things will get: For the British generally and them personally.
It's got a strange kind of symetric beauty about it.
@tmh prior "studies" have been far too broad, did not break out immigration properly by country and by job type and compensation and hence tax paid. You need to do that and then start stratifying where visas woukd be granted and where they would not and/or only short term visas. Also any study needs to FULLY cost impact on housing, infrastructure and helath service provision.
Spot on, why do we need a bigger study when you have already presented us with the answers...
YOu should probably be careful what you ask for though, a study into all that will probably tell you what common sense would that a mostly young and healthy bunch of immigrants has a much lower footprint than the aging UK population and contributes more before either staying and becoming britsh or leaving.
Months in and still no good news, unless you count the prospect of being taken roughly from behind by one of Trumps kids during the trade negotiations. It will be interesting to compare the UK vs EU deal with Australia (well in 5-10 years when the UK one is finished)
[quote=jambalaya ]Well that's a bit of a shocker considering airport rates are supposed to be 1:1 as leople here like to post (hence my ripost).
Supposed to be? Do you not believe it? I could do with some cheap Euros though - given you seem to be the expert on this, could you explain how I get the Eurotunnel rate when exchanging my pounds?
[quote=mrmo ] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/28/taoiseach-leo-varadkar-ireland-not-design-border-brexiteers
I think the summary, you created this mess, now clean it up.
I'm wondering if this is the key issue. It's not like it's got no publicity at all, but I'm not sure people appreciate how crucial and difficult this issue is.
Because personally I think I'd rather try to solve the Middle East Problem than attempt to work out a solution to the post-Brexit Irish border. Is there any possible solution acceptable to all parties?
Not only that, but this issue also kind of scuppers the "no deal" option - because that would result in the worst possible "solution" which pretty much everybody would hate (not even the DUP, despite a hard border satisfying some of their ideologies).
Jambas, you can provide me with the links of the overly broad analysis if you like - they would be easy to counter. If by broad you mean (irony coming here .... 😉 ) the ability to reconsider that immigrants are not only a supply of labour but also a source of demand, then the breadth of analysis is welcome even required. Otherwise people get into the myopic debate about how immigrants simply take/consume resources when nothing could be farther from the truth.
Cougar - a very pleasant dinner one. I was assuming by the more elaborate (!?!) points above that you had also had a "nice" evening too. I would recommend reading Banks' books for an accurate understanding of his position. It's a rather disturbing read...
I see Fox has said he didn't know about and doesn't agree with Hammond's 3 year transition plan after all....
One can only imagine the mixture of frustration & pity felt by the negotiators on the EU side as they look at their counterparts at the mercy of their clueless and bickering ministers.
THM - happy to read Banks book, buying it I object to. Got a second hand copy?
Kindle version I'm afraid
[img] 
[/img]
Kindle version I'm afraid
Darn. There ought to be a way to send the file through but I bet there isn't.
I have no idea, sorry
I bought it relucntantly, very reluctantly, on the basis of its better to know your enemies and how they won! It's illuminating if disturbing, but better than simply ignoring the events.
Oh I don't disagree, it's just sending my money to that wrecker.
I'm also not drinking in Wetherspoons or buying anything Dyson etc.
(my apple autocorrect tries to put Dyson in as dysfunctional - Freudian)
This classic clip more or less sums up the UK negotiating position.
"Yeah, but not you though, you're ok, it's all those other immigrants."
More or less verbatim what my sister's in-laws told my wife.
Jammers... serious question.... instead of just quoting figures and statistics, have you got anything to say about the social cost of this car crash?
They can all go and live in Asia - do try to keep up!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-05/british-retirees-watch-frozen-pensions-disappear/8161786
Brexit keeps on giving....
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/30/liam-fox-denies-cabinet-deal-on-transitional-eu-free-movement ]Liam Fox has just contradicted everything Hammond said the other day[/url]
its almost like they're all just winging it, literally making it up as they go along, and saying whatever pops into their heads? And that nobody has a ****ing clue what the actual policy is, on account of there not actually being one. On any topic
Truly an absolute omnishambles!
It'd actually be funny if it wasn't so increasingly obvious that the results are going to be absolutely catastrophic! Not for the protagonists, obviously. They're safely insulated from the fallout by their wealth and power. Just us 'little people' who'll be left to pick up the tab, same as with the banking crisis.
Something to look forward too eh?
At this point it is clear that we don't have a functioning govt at all. Barnier might as well be negotiating with me as with Davis.
Could we apply for Merkel to provide an interim government for the UK. 😉
As many have been saying for a while UK universities and research already being damaged by Brexit.
https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/07/19/inenglish/1500483801_779025.html
Good for other EU countries as some excellent scientists already heading home