I didn't deny anything. The euro certainly has problems.
Hmm. Italy. That country that has the same level of growth as us among the g7, right? When before the brexit referendum we were leading the g7 for economic growth?
Just checking 😉
Timing of cycles, del, timing of cycles. Little if anything to do with Brexshit
Del - we are now the slowest growing EU county
Joint slowest with Italy tj, I think?
Timing of cycles? If you say so. Interested to see any data you have.
Just from a newspaper article I saw today - can't remember which one. whichever it is its not good news and its evidecne of more economic damage from brexit
The EU economies have become remarkably consistent/synchronised in their growth patterns. The charts follow each other. The UK (and the US) led out of the downturn - largely due to the timing of stealing - whereas the EU lagged until their version of stealing took off in 14/15 at which point they accelerated at a faster pace. Since then they have grown faster especially the S European economies with Framce lagging. All will slow in 2018. It's simple economic cycles.
Of course, for the UK we have had the direct effect of the £ - mainly on real wages but not really on spending yet, but will - and uncertainty which are related to Brexshit. But they both need to be put into perspective.
The hyperbole and BS that remoaners keep spouting does no favours. It further adds to uncertainty and a v weak negotiating position. People should think before they spout such nonsense
THM - let's assume that I accept there isn't as much bad news from Brexit as some would have me believe. Fair enough. It's the complete absence of good news to offer up against the not quite as much bad news as some predicted that gives one pause for thought.
You can argue it's not as bad as expected. No one can make a coherent argument that Brexit is good news. (Please note - coherent not nationalistic)
have the criminals been prosecuted or did you just "sex up" your dossier with a baseless piece of hyperbole ?largely due to the timing of stealing
Now what would you be saying were a politician, especially a scottish one, tp do the same thing?
As others have said, IGM, it hasn't happend yet, so you cannot argue if it has been good, bad or ortherwise.
We have seen some negative effects which are a direct consequence but their impact has so far been relatively limited - thankfully. The economy is in a mature phase and will slow over next 12-18 months as will the major economies in Europe. That is where natural business cycles come in. Oddly enough only one of the economies in question is going through Brexshit - as others also say, go figure....
Perspective, cool heads and focusing in what is in front of us not what we wished was in front of us is what is required. Making up scare stories helps no one
THM, remember when I questioned your assertion that you were a staunch remainer and you got all cross?
The hyperbole and BS that remoaners keep spouting does no favours.
So why do you persist with using such inflammatory language?
I've spoken about Brexit, about leave, about remain, and I've never once* resorted to name-calling as a tactic. I've also held my hand up when I've been proved wrong.
(* I may have done in the early days, but caught myself and decided to stop.)
Cross? That's another defintion we differ on - but I note who is exaggerating for effect though 😉
As you say when defending the bullying of our favourite Brexshiteer - if people spout BS they should be pulled up for it. At the moment it is the remoaners not the Brexshiteers who are spouting the most BS as we can see clearly ^
So I follow your lead and example. and pull them up on it. But behind the amusement of a biking forum, there is a serious point ie, the same BS is spouted in the real word and that is as damaging as the process itself.
Cross? That's another defintion we differ on - but I note who is exaggerating for effect though.;-)
Ok, you vehemently disagreed. Obviously syntax is the crux of the discussion here.
As you say when defending the bullying of our favourite Brexshiteer - if people spout BS they should be pulled up for it.
I don't endorse bullying anyone (christ if only you knew) but I will absolutely defend the right to call out nonsense.
At the moment it is the remoaners not the Brexshiteers who are spouting the most BS as we can see clearly
"we" == "you". And still with the pejorative names.
But behind the amusement of a biking forum, there is a serious point ie, the same BS is spouted in the real word and that is as damaging as the process itself.
Couldn't agree more.
"Christ" - you are bringing him into it now 😉
yone (christ if only you knew) but I will absolutely defend the right to call out nonsense
Well you have plenty of chances to prove this. On you go..,
I have seen no remainders spouting bullshine - just pointing out the facts that the leavers deny was going to happen or is happening and calling out the bullshine from the leavers
so far its turning out pretty much as we remainers predicted bar the large rise in unemployment.
financial services firms moving operations out of london - happening despite the leavers saying it wouldn't
Inward investment collapsing
Needed skilled EU workers no longer coming to the UK - see the data on nurses. 5% of last years numbers now coming
£ collapsing
Balance of payments getting worse
deficit increasing
Now leving the EU wqs supposed to be an oportunity - so I challenged the leavers to show the positives of leaving. Not one answer.
the bullying of our favourite Brexshiteer
again, 'report post'. if you do and don't get 'satisfaction', feel free to mention it.
Timing of cycles? If you say so. Interested to see any data you have.
It's simple economic cycles.
guess that's a 'no' then?
has the UK's economic growth gone from the top to the bottom of g7 countries and back again in a cycle over, say, the past 15 years? ( genuine question BTW )
teamhurtmore - Member
As others have said, IGM, it hasn't happend yet, so you cannot argue if it has been good, bad or ortherwise.We have seen some negative effects which are a direct consequence but their impact has so far been relatively limited - thankfully. The economy is in a mature phase and will slow over next 12-18 months as will the major economies in Europe. That is where natural business cycles come in. Oddly enough only one of the economies in question is going through Brexshit - as others also say, go figure....
Perspective, cool heads and focusing in what is in front of us not what we wished was in front of us is what is required. Making up scare stories helps no one
I probably agree with most of that - although there is a little friction between your "it hasn't happened yet" statement (which I agree with, though it doesnt sit that well with the statements you and others have made roughly along the lines of it's not as bad as everyone said Brexit would be) and your later "economy is in a mature phase and will slow over next 12-18 months as will the major economies in Europe" statement, which arguably as the happened yet.
But I'll let you off with that.
I agree - no scare stories (gonna be bad enough without making up stories 😉 ).
And we need to remember as we look at the likely downturn in the economy - stats tell us poverty kills. At the margins certainly, but it does. I was discussing this off forum with another forumite, and austerity or no austerity round Castleford where I work there are definitely people for whom Brexit is likely to mean ending up the wrong side of the breadline.
That's not a scare story. That's just what I going to happen. Now we already know that some Brexies think people dying is an acceptable price for Brexit (look at their appalling reaction to the Jo Cox murder if you want to check that) - so my only question to those folk is how many deaths do they think are acceptable? Straight question - give a number.
Now one might ask is the EU causing poverty in Greece? Perhaps - probably the euro not the EU IMO of course. If so maybe they should leave (the euro as a minimum). But that is no argument for the UK leaving is it?
Let's wreck Brexit. Who's with me?
#ExitBrexit
you have plenty of chances to prove this.
Sorry, what do you require proof of?
IGM > brave words well said, sir.
Obviously syntax is the crux of the discussion here.
All discussions with THM fit this pattern in the end.
anyone seen this?
large rise in unemployment.
Not convinced there will be that large a rise, a large part of the work force can leave the UK and find work elsewhere. If it got that bad i could move to EU, due to dual nationality, for example along with plenty of others, obviously the Poles can go home, etc etc.
Timing of cycles, del, timing of cycles
Well it is a cycling forum
IGM my reference to "it hasn't happened yet" was tongue-in-cheek and a (obviously too subtle) piss take of some remoaners' comments.
Predicting the direction of European and other economies is part of what I get paid for. So no need let me off. It's just what my data is telling me and therefore what I foresee. Brexshit is not the primary driver of this data/view.
Sorry but your point about dying is not worth commenting on. The rest ie there will be losers from fhe Brexshit process is correct. And the irony is that many of these losers will have voted for Brexhsit. But that is their responsibility and they have to man up to the consequences of their decisions.
You are correct the € is not an issue for us directly but natural empathy makes me angry about the appaling consequence this has had across the young people of Europe. I am alway amazed at how some people who claim to be LW or to have empathy with those who are less well off (no really) are totally blind - either by deliberate choice, lack of understanding or dogma - to this.
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/23/liam-fox-demands-meeting-with-bbc-over-negative-brexit-stories ]Liam Fox demands meeting with BBC over 'negative' Brexit stories.[/url]
Brilliant. 😀
Del - yes at the early stage of this current cycle the UK outperformed EU. It's simply an issue of timing and when we abandoned austerity. Like the US our cycle uis more mature that Europe's version. Ditto within Europe different economies have recovered around the same basic trend but at slightly different paces eg Spain grew faster after '14 when they started [s]Stealing[/s] QE. France has been below trend but less volatile. None of this is directly related to Brexshit.
you may have to bear with me - simple techy uneducated in economics. so, the uk has gone from top to bottom of G7 economic growth over the past 15 years, and this repeats in a cycle?
to respond to your other point fwiw i don't think joe public is aware of the effect of the euro on, for instance, portugal's employment prospects/wages. the only reason i'm aware of it is because i've been there and spoken to people through my work.
Well yes and no. Broadly speaking we have experienced similar trends in economic growth but the peaks and troughs have occurred at different times ie, the pacing has been different.. Europe is remarkably synchronised right now. Brexhsit has had little if an direct impact on the timings of these peaks and troughs so far. So remoaners using this to pretend otherwise is simple BS.
The euro has been catastrophic for the Portuguese and especially their young people both in its part in causing the crisis and it's part in exacerbating the negative consequences. This had to happen by design. That is why I am anti it.
In contrast, the single market and the four basic freedoms have been very positive including FoM which is why I was a remainer and am still strongly in favour of the four freedoms. But I/we lost that argument as we didnt make it well enough. So we too have to live with the consequences. We lost, even if some, cannot get over that simple fact.
"we" == "you". And still with the pejorative names
But it is not one sided, he also calls those who voted for Brexit - Brexshitters, in your one eyed world you may not regard that as a pejorative, but I think they rather might.
piss take of some remoaners' comments.
Why are you taking the piss out of people you claim to agree with?
Why are you ignoring my question?
Sorry, what do you require proof of?
😀 mefty
Coug's, I disagree with remoaners and their BS, hence I call it out as you recommend.
You have the opportunity to live up to your words/claim and do the same. So far you have resisted - well at least in the last few pages. The choice is yours as there is plenty of false stuff posted for you to choose from in the last few pages, so there you go, there's your answer,
Sorry but your point about dying is not worth commenting on.
No need to comment THM - it's as close to factual as you'll get on this thread. And agreed - a lot of less affluent Brexies probably are folk who'll lose out.
On the euro. At one level not our problem - ok, I'll accept that, but that wasn't really my point. The point was that for those that it is a problem for us being in or out makes little difference. And as a highly trained engineer I'm stunned that people trained in disciplines more relevant to international currencies and state financing couldn't work out in advance that it was a bad idea (you are excepted as someone who has consistently said it was bad I think). Even looking at the USA tells you it is potentially a bad idea - cities going bankrupt anyone? In an economy that was probably more tightly held together than Greece and Germany? Ouch.
I don't endorse bullying anyone (christ if only you knew) but I will absolutely defend the right to call out nonsense.
Cougar Yup I am good with that. You are however mixing your definition of nonsense with having a differemt opinion. Kimbers post was very very far off the mark of pointing out so called "nonsense". I have been simply too busy to check back in detail on the last round of obnoxious abuse here but I have had a few emails on particuarly abusive posts including on some other threads which I had not read but others had. I owe another STWer a detailed response on something first and once that's done the Mods can expect quite a few reports.
UK growth is projcted to exceed that of the Eurozone as a whole. Would you for example rather be Greece or UK no matter what fhe "growth" stats say ?
In other news Corbyn at least confirmed today what we all know, ie that Labour's position is that we will leave the Single Market. (That does mean he has put Sir Kier in his place who was only recently claiming Labour would get the EU to change the single market to allow us to stay !!!) How Corbyn can credibly say Labour haven't decided on the Customs Union yet is laughable. It's been 12 months since the vote and he well knows the Customs Union restricts our ability to sign trade deals and as such is a negative.
Labour and the Tory's are in any practical sense identical to the Tories on Brexit. Labour made the 2017 GE about "austerity" / the deficit by adopting the Tory position on Brexit in practice plus a bit of wolly "protect jobs" statements.
If you are a Remainer / Brexit-derailer in your corner you do have Tony Blair and Vince Cable though. Go you.
Would you for example rather be Greece or UK no matter what fhe "growth" stats say ?
Euro issue not EU
Also note that 80% of labour membership wish to remain in the single market. Corbyn may yet be forced on that one.
Customs Union restricts our ability to sign trade deals and as such is a negative.
But improves the mechanics of trade with our largest external trading partner and as such is on balance positive.
Hmm, not sure about your US point. The US and the UK are two examples of areas that fulfill the conditions for single currencies and hence it is correct to enjoy the benefits that they bring to both regions. Ergo, I believe that it is in the interests of Scotland to remain part of the UK and to retain the £. Europe is a totally different case, however. Hence I am anti the single currency as it cannot work in Europe by design and clearly doesn't - except in the eyes of those who cannot or chose not to look at the carnage that is in front of their eyes.
Jambas you need to check your growth figures BTW. Better on Corbyn, his position or lack of it on Marr this morning was remarkable - remarkably awful.
Check governmental bankruptcies in the US - plenty of them.
Regions that raise taxes and borrowing in their own right but in a currency controlled elsewhere and tied to areas with different economic trajectories - sounding familiar yet?
Not identical, but many similarities.
Now Europe is a more extreme case I agree. And I also reckon the euro was in retrospect a bad idea - surely wiser heads would have seen it as bad in advance (or was Gordon one of those wise heads?)
Of course I'm just a poor engineer and don't understand such things.
No they are fundamentally different
The single currency was never based on logic or solid foundations. Hence it's demise. Yes, Gordi was smart enough to spot this and politically astute in how he chose to avoid it. He deserves much credit for that.
Go on then - I can normally cope with fundamentals.
Keep the words short.
Two words, two syllables : Robert Mundell.
Happy reading and sweet dreams....(be warned his stuff Is the subject of much debate and his own position re the euro had many contractions - some might say, lacked logic too)
But improves the mechanics of trade with our largest external trading partner and as such is on balance positive.
Also boosts our competitors economies as they trade and co-operative with each other, thereby giving them more scope to invest in R&D and efficiencies, no?
UK growth is projcted to exceed that of the Eurozone as a whole. Would you for example rather be Greece or UK no matter what fhe "growth" stats say ?
Errmmm- when UK growth is now the lowest in the EU? Really?
Customs Union restricts our ability to sign trade deals and as such is a negative.
Nonsense - it just means we do it as part of a large collective not as an individual country - and as a part of the EU we hare a much better prospect to sign trade deals with
Was it not India who refused to even consider a post brexit trade deal unless we made it much easier for Indians to settle in the UK?
THM - I'm loving the caveat
So, the US is dominant in many areas because it is a huge country with big resources. Why do we want to be a small one again?
Coug's
No limit to your Mickey-taking, down-talking arrogance eh THM.
You need to have an off-forum chat with TJ about THM, Cougar.
This getting really quite nasty. As a minimum measure I suggest swear filtering THM's tediously repeated insults. Anyhow it's no longer a debate.
