It's been 12 months since the vote and he well knows the Customs Union restricts our ability to sign trade deals and as such is a negative.
Staying in the Customs Union gives us continued access to our existing trade deals, and future trade deals including those in progress right now. Jam today and tomorrow. As such, the Customs Union is a big fat positive. And that's before you even start looking for a way to solve the Irish border conundrum.
Ok. 10 minutes on google and I can of course declare myself an expert but...
THM - I'm thinking the status of states and cities in the US definitely breaks some of the suggested rules on aligning monetary and fiscal policy. (And the big additional one that the euro breaks is indirectly down to language barriers.)
How about some free consultancy / training?
Edukator - Reformed Troll...................
You need to have an off-forum chat with TJ about THM, Cougar.
Eh? What he been saying now? No please don't quote him - it was a rhetorical question! I ain't sure what cougar would learn from talking to me that he doesn't already know - but cougar should have access to my email if he wants to
Errmmm- when UK growth is now the lowest in the EU? Really?
Do you just mean for the first quarter of 2017?
Sounds very alarmist, a bit like a Daily Mail headline 😉
Delusional brexies ignoring the experts as per usual.
I ain't sure what cougar would learn from talking to me that he doesn't already know
Good point, TJ. THM's behaviour is following a pattern that is familiar and unpleasant and it's starting to pain me to watch even though I'm not the target. That's happened before.
Anyhow if I don't like what I'm reading there's a simple solution.
I could say an awful lot about THMs psychology and why he behaves like he does but rightly STW towers warned me off as it takes two to make a row. Like all trolls he is best ignored. the blocking thingy works very nicely
Huh? I've aways enjoyed THM's contributions. I guess he doesn't toe the party line.
Perhaps he should go to a re-education camp until his views have been corrected?
Nothing to do with "not toeing the party line"
No limit to your Mickey-taking, down-talking arrogance eh THM.
THM's behaviour is following a pattern that is familiar and unpleasant and it's starting to pain me to watch even though I'm not the target. That's happened before.
A Treasury spokesperson said the IMF forecast underlined why the government's plans to increase productivity and get "the very best deal with the EU" after Brexit were "vitally important".
"Employment is at a record high and the deficit is down by three quarters, showing that the fundamentals of our economy are strong," they added.
Trump 'uncertainty'
The UK growth forecast for 2018 remains unchanged at 1.5%, but US growth for next year is now predicted to come in at 2.1%, instead of the 2.5% previously forecast.
"While the markdown in the [US] 2017 forecast reflects in part the weak growth outturn in the first quarter of the year, the major factor behind the growth revision, especially for 2018, is the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary than previously assumed, given the uncertainty about the timing and nature of US fiscal policy changes," the IMF said.
"Market expectations of fiscal stimulus have also receded."
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40697473
Great ringing endorsements of the Tories/Brexit and Trump.
Uncertainty beats everything in the end and the UK just signed up for a minimum of 2 years probably a lot more before any meaningful trade positions are established. Still waiting for all the Brexit Good news, still nothing more than your bad news is exaggerated. Any highlights people want to share?
Edukator - Reformed TrollNo limit to your Mickey-taking, down-talking arrogance eh THM.
You need to have an off-forum chat with TJ about THM, Cougar.
This getting really quite nasty. As a minimum measure I suggest swear filtering THM's tediously repeated insults. Anyhow it's no longer a debate.
😯
Wow Edukator. I hope you are feeling better this morning. That was quite something! I appreciate that this topic/thread has descended into using hyperbole/exaggeration in an attempt to silence those whose either (1) support Brexshit or (2) are willing to accept the result of a referendum and GE but to use the same tactic to launch an unpleasant and unwarranted personal attack is a new low.
If for one moment you feel that the use of abbreviated forum names e.g. hurty (see above) flashy, Binns, MrB, jambas etc is in any way at indicative of what you accuse me of, then I would suggest that it is you that has the issue (especially since you have used this tactic before)
Anyway I don't expect an apology/retraction and no hard feelings at my end. As I say, hope you feel better today.
IGM, Caveats 😉 ! It is quite interesting how confused RM (can we do that?) got on the issue of the Euro and his theory. The debate can get a little lost! Sticking to the underlying issue of an OCA is better. Hope you enjoyed the reference.
Anyway, will leave this thread to calm down a bit. In the spirit of European harmony - bon journee a tous! A bientot.
One final point - the IMF revised down U.K. growth this morning by several basis points. That's correct, several, actual basis points.
Make of that, what you will....
you may have to bear with me - simple techy uneducated in economics. so, the uk has gone from top to bottom of G7 economic growth over the past 15 years, and this repeats in a cycle?
Gosh - how scientific that sounds! Imagine an engineer trying to get away with that level of analysis!
Jamba says
UK growth is projcted to exceed that of the Eurozone as a whole.
Just turned on the radio to hear that IMF forecast says the opposite 😆
Dr J - occasionally I do. But I'm senior enough that other people will check the numbers for me.
THM - OCA was what went with, and it would explain the rust belt as well as the trans-EU migration tendencies. Bother the Euro and the dollar appeared to cross the line on what was advisable but to differing degrees.
Pigface; reported for bullying.
Ducky 😆
ducky
Pig face reported twice 😉
Sorry left the thread open!! As you were...
Guess I will be in the big house for at least 2 months this time 😯
teamhurtmore - Member
One final point - the IMF revised down U.K. growth this morning by several basis points. That's correct, several, actual basis points.Make of that, what you will....
Still zero positive news about Brexit being great for the UK?
Just turned on the radio to hear that IMF forecast says the opposite
I think we've all had enough of these experts telling us what will happen.
Looks like the sick man of Europe is making a comeback.
Make of that, what you will....
That when talking about THE WHOLE ECONOMY, small percentages can mean a large amount?
1.7% is a lot less than 2% when referring to GDP growth?
What have they said they expect for the rEU countries? Have they revised that downwards as well?
Sorry to blow the froth off the coffee but the IMF is saying that 2017 UK growth will be 1.7% in 2017 versus 1.8% in 2016 and v 1.5% for France and 1.8% for Germany (2017). Hardly tin hat time!
Their forecast also confirm my observations about different points in the cycle. The UK and EU both forecast to slow in 2018 but at different rates. UK underperforming the EU at both data points (i.e. 2017 and 2018 year end). All well known or should be - even the Tories know that
It said "weaker-than-expected activity" in the first three months of the year meant the UK would grow by 1.7%, compared with an earlier 2% forecast.
Or the UK was on for a 2% growth but has been taken back to 1.7% - about a 15% drop.
Their forecast also confirm my observations about different points in the cycle.
So the IMF missed your observations and predictions and don't understand cycles?
No. Not at all. Perspective mike, perspective...
Have a good day
To be fair to THM, the EU has brought us, for example, unemployment of 3% - that's only going one way. So yes we are at the top of the cycle and as we leave the EU we will be falling off that peak.
So as he says the cyclical effects and the Brexit effects will be additive.
Agreed THM or am I extrapolating and putting too many words in your mouth?
What it means is tory supporters are so wilfully blind they will make up all sorts of rubbish to "prove" that the tories are not making a huge mess of the economy
the facts are:
Growth down
Inflation up
Deficit up
Balance of payments deficit up
Inward investment down
All very bad news indeed. Its not cyclical its stuctural and being made worse by fake austerity and leaving the EU
Plenty of perspective the 2 major economies in the world that have made stupid political decisions are now suffering a downgrade in forecasts.
Anyway still waiting for the Brexipositives.
For instance a positive would be growth exceeding forecasts, big investments, deals with the EU?
Are we all doomed then or is it just the end of the world?
Apparently if we stay in the EU we'll all become slaves (to the EU rythum) but if we leave we'll become poor, depressed n everyone in the EU will hate us. Now come on you lot which is it! Could we have hard or soft EU slavery or Cliff edge EU hating us or a gentle transition period of hate till the EU just does not like us very much (not hates though).
As yet there has been no definitive answer, why can't we have some people on the thread who know what they are talking about? We should ban all this opinionated rubbish backed up by whatever media prattle backs their own (confirmation) bias.
Mean while its all looking ticker t boo in Yorkshire.
IGM broadly yes - thx, but extrapolating too far by linking natural peak to Brexshit
Looking at the graphs of UK v EU GDP growth in front of me now. Consistent trend other than 2011-2013 when UK did not dip in the way that the EU did. We flatlined - remember? The EU then accelerated their version of stealing later and their cycles turned and accelerated from a lower base. Since then moved broadly in line. But we are further down the cycle and will peak earlier (now). Brexit is additive true but not the main driver. But perspective is required to appreciate that.
mt - you're in the wrong bit of Yorkshire if you think it's all ticketyboo
Brexit is additive true but not the main driver. But perspective is required to appreciate that.
Which is broadly the point, at a bad time the UK is inflicting pain on itself, mostly at a time when it could least afford to.
Again as this goes on how much more will people put up with what is going on?
You still might want to continue to believe this is a one way street but without any sign of good news there is still trouble ahead
There is indeed. The outlook for the U.K. is weakening and Brexshit is a negative. True.
Hence we need to minimise the risks, keep perspective and work towards solutions. Making wildly inaccurate accusations is not part of this.
With the realisation that a substantial transition period will be required progress is being made.
There's an engineering theorem called superposition (others may well use it too) which is a great way of isolating and explaining one effect when there are umpteen things going on - as there often are in engineering.
However it only works when effects don't affect each other - typically that means linear systems (though there are a few things at the margins.
The question is wandering round the back of my mind THM - are Brexit and economic cycles truly separate, in which case you can make the argument you espouse, or might Brexit affect the economic cycle in some way, in which case you can't?
Now in the second case that still doesn't tell you that it's better or worse - just that your steady state model may not work.
My suspicion is that there is interplay because humans are involved and that will create a feedback loop at the micro-rational level (ration to individuals but not to society as a whole).
That is one reason that in a consumer led economy, the macro rational response to June 23 would have been to batten down the hatches and a fall in GDP might be expected, but for individuals spending now prior to price rises (and particularly in times of low interest rates) led to a GDP rise.
My suspicion is that folks forecasting economies might need new tools to cope with non-steady state situations and may need non-rational, behaviourist based thinking.
But this is just stream of consciousness stuff and I'm probably 20 years behind the thinking.
Hence we need to minimise the risks, keep perspective and work towards solutions. Making wildly inaccurate accusations is not part of this.
Or up the ante and make Brexit untenable
Or actually see the reality, understand what is happening and keep the pressure on the tories to reverse their stupid and dangerous policies?
No they are not separate clearly. But understanding how they interact is important. The wilder statement made by remoaners are detached from reality and understanding
The UK and US economies are at relatively mature stages in their economic cycles than the EU. They bottomed at different times and peak at different times. Nothing surprising there.
So far Brexshit has had an impact of £ - mixed but IMO negative on balance - and uncertainty - negative. The consumer has carried on with what he/she does best. Perhaps they haven't noticed Brexshit yet or alternatively going out with a bang!!!
@igm "mt - you're in the wrong bit of Yorkshire if you think it's all ticketyboo"
Funny that, was just trying to sound positive and cheery in an un-Yorkshire like way. Given the perpetual moaning and crap spouted on this thread, thought a little bit of hope would be nice.
Free Yorkshire! An it better be cheap.
we could all be positive - yes MT do they 100 foot Red Bull Gap jump we KNOW YOU CAN DO IT
Happy now or do you want some more realism in the optimism?
Perhaps they haven't noticed Brexshit yet or alternatively going out with a bang!!!
Probably a bit of both. My wife works in marketing and would tell you some very interesting things about how consumers react to an impending or actual fall in living standards. Affordable luxury is a fantastic concept.
The consumer has carried on with what he/she does best. Perhaps they haven't noticed Brexshit yet or alternatively going out with a bang!!!
Or look at the item you posted a few pages back, savings down. So rather than save money it is being spent, that can only go on so long.
I see the Micky taking continues with "have a nice day", "blow the froth off your coffee", "remoaning" (despite a polite moderator suggestion to desist) and something that looks French.
Growth has held up better than expected because consumers have maintained their lifestyles with borrowing and burning savings. The cost of living has gone up with the fall in the pound as a major cause and people have failed to adjust their spending. The result is a fall in the savings rate which history tells us is highly likely to signal the next recession.
Check out the [url= https://www.fathom-consulting.com/newsletters/odds-uk-recession-now-greater-even/ ]graph.[/url]
As yet there has been no definitive answer, why can't we have some people on the thread who know what they are talking about?
Cos no-one knows. We've voted for this thing based on rhetoric and some extremely shaky thinking, and no-one knows how it'll turn out. We're speeding through the darkness without headlights.
Ask 3 economists get 3 different answers - however on this topic the economic analysis is generally in the same direction. the UK economy is heading for the rocks and leaving the EU makes it much worse. All economic indicators are pointing down
