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Christ - Deutsche Bank:https://mobile.twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/854328227053096962
And [b]if[/b] Deutsch are reading this correctly, the hard brexiters are going to be a tad miffed. Norway here we come, paying in indefinitely, never quite finishing the negotiations etc.
In 2020, either we'll be out on our arse and stuggling to grab the loose ends, or in some kind of transition period to smooth things along. Either would mean lost voters for the Tories.
And in 2022, will we still be in a transition period?
Yep detached Bank now think it'll be the softest of brexshits,
keeping FOM?
2022 still be transitioning, the delusions of Brexiters that we can untangle safely in a few months decades of mutually beneficial union were always set for a big fall
Yep detached Bank now think it'll be the softest of brexshits, keeping FOM?
She's bought wiggle room today. So maybe, if it's expedient.
But they don't care either way right now.
they do care , a lot . they wont be happy when the promises are not happening .
No one promised anything. the ballot paper just said "leave the EU", the rest is in your head.
Anyway, by "they" I meant the Tories.
you are right the leave campaigned said literally nothing about what would happen when we leave FACEPALM ....at least there is something in our heads 😉
2022 is three years post Brexit where we can sign the trade deals we have been "discussing" prior to April 2019
The longer you are in power the better, 2022 better than 2020. 2022 provides yet more time for Southern European meltdown to really banjax the EU and show how Brexit was genius from soup to nuts.
May very well knows that Brexit negotiations when you are holding a mandate to 2022 with a massive majority are a whole lot easier. The EU know that too.
The worst thing you can say about today's announcement was that it was opportunistic.
The worst thing you can say about today's announcement was that it was opportunistic.
That's the best thing I have to say about it! A smart move for her and her party. For some of the reasons you state.
I laughed and pictured this fella saying this2022 provides yet more time for Southern European meltdown to really banjax the EU and show how Brexit was genius from soup to nuts.
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In an unprecedented 1,200 word statement last night, Mr Blair urged voters to pressure candidates to commit to holding “the Government properly to account in the interests of the country. This should cross party lines.The political situation the country faces is unprecedented and dangerous.
We risk a Parliament which is lop-sided in its make-up; which has a big Tory majority - in part delivered not because of the intrinsic merits of Brexit or the Tories themselves but because of the state of Labour; where they will claim a mandate to take us wherever they will; when we desperately need representatives who will at least keep an open mind.
This requires the electorate in every constituency to know where the candidates stand; and the mobilisation of the thousands in each constituency to make it clear that for them this issue counts when it comes to their vote.”
jambalaya - Member
2022 is three years post Brexit where we can sign the trade deals we have been "discussing" prior to April 2019The longer you are in power the better, 2022 better than 2020. 2022 provides yet more time for Southern European meltdown to really banjax the EU and show how Brexit was genius from soup to nuts.
May very well knows that Brexit negotiations when you are holding a mandate to 2022 with a massive majority are a whole lot easier. The EU know that too.
The worst thing you can say about today's announcement was that it was opportunistic.
Yep. Like you say May knows she's in a very weak position and is playing for time.
No, she was in an OK position but expects to be in a much stronger position come June 8th.
I find myself agreeing with Jambalaya.
jambalaya - Member
No, she was in an OK position but expects to be in a much stronger position come June 8th.
Domestically yes, for now, but police investigations into electoral misconduct by the Tories and with the run up to the 2020 GE right on the back of the 2019 cliff edge she wasn't going to be in a strong position for long.
Ultimately though she is s principle free zone. Total opportunist. And who would say they'd have done differently?
Anyway we have a good chance of getting rid of our local Brexy scum (Tory) MP round here, so I can live with a GE.
[quote=jambalaya ]No, she was in an OK position but expects to be in a much stronger position come June 8th than in May 2020
True but you forgot to finish it
As IGM says it makes sense politically but lets not dress this up as anything noble. She thinks this is her best chance of winning between now and 2020 so she has changed her mind and taken the opportunity
It is borne of necessity rather than principle or political masterstroke.
And don't forget calling a GE now deflects the forth coming shitstorm regarding electoral fraud. Be interesting to see how that plays out. Many of those implicated will be standing for reelection
New Zealand introduces a "Kiwis First" viaa policy aimed at prioritising NZ citizens ahead of foreign visa applicants. This follows similar moves from Australia in the last few days. Skill classifications are also based on income/salary levels
UK unemployment rate held at an almost 12-year low of 4.7 percent in the three months to February 2017, in line with market expectations. The employment rate stood at an all-time high of 74.6 percent as the number of people in work rose by 39 thousand. Meanwhile, total pay adjusted for price inflation rose by 0.2 percent from the previous year, the smallest gain since the three months to October 2014. Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 7.12 percent from 1971 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 12 percent in February of 1984 and a record low of 3.40 percent in November of 1973.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate
Both Australia and NZ have very small populations compared to the UK, amakes a bit more sense to have some extra control, (They do also have completely free movement bewtween the 2 countries with no visa required)
The Uk with near record low un employment is set to reduce the work force and reduce the number of people coming in to the UK.
Also worth noting Australia and NZ throw out hundreds of thousands of visa's to young unskilled people every year with very few restrictions which significantly helps with agriculture etc. When nursing jobs are filled, aged care and fruit and veg picking then maybe restriction on low paid may be some use.
Over half of UK immigration is from outside the EU. The government has has decades to control it and didn't. Links to NZ policy are a total red herring in relation to Brexit.
I was under the impression that the Brexiters were the bigoted and thick but it seems calling someone you disagree with scum is a good idea. Tut tut.
That oz anoucement, you mean on the back of scrapping the current system which amounts to bonded servitude?
Don't forget our ageing population, - ironically the older Brexit voting dupes need young immigrants the most
Its why the current and previous govs have not reduced immigration and why May wants an election now so she has no pressure to reduce it
The BrexiteerTories just too scared of our xenophobic media to be honest about it- look at the right wing hard-on that telegraph article has elicited, they keep stoking the ignorance
Of course idiots will still blame the EU for our own politicians dishonesty
“The political situation the country faces is unprecedented and dangerous.
We risk a Parliament which is lop-sided in its make-up; which has a big Tory majority...Tony Blair from the Telegraph article^^
Is this the same Tony Blair who won 419 seats and a 179 seat Commons majority in 1997??
Never ever underestimate Mr Blairs propensity for hypocrisy(s?).
there is no certainty that Mrs May will gain a majority.
At least the dUK is a warning to other EU countries that exit leads to more discontent and endless elections, referendums and politics out the arse
there is no certainty that Mrs May will gain a majority.
Yes, but it's probable.
I suspect Tory Remainers will vote Tory over Remain (or soft Brexit if you prefer to call it that).
Hope I'm wrong.
I'm not so sure, they could vote Liberal in the Tory remain heartlands. Remember in or out has provoked strong feelings among many people. I suspect many Labour folk may vote Liberal and we'll see a big gain for them.
Is Tony Blair planning to support campaign for the liberals?
Edit, missed something.
None of the GE distraction gets us closer to a free Yorkshire.
It does if you put up candidates and they get elected.
@mattjg. Would you care to stand?
I'm not as I prefer perpetual moaning like many on this thread and in Yorkshire.
mt - Member
I was under the impression that the Brexiters were the bigoted and thick but it seems calling someone you disagree with scum is a good idea. Tut tut.
Nowt bigoted about calling that individual scum. It describes him well, he could do something about it, he chooses not to.
Lobby fodder would also be a decent description. Or a waste of an MP's salary.
As a Scottish immigrant to Yorkshire (arrived in 1992, should qualify for citizenship) I might stand. Maybe as an SNP candidate - they need to grow the brand.
@igm, I'd vote for you if you were SNP candidate. Whats your MP called and the constituency? If its winable we may get that Nicola Sturgeon to visit. Hmmmmm, I love to be a member for her.
York Outer.
No, she was in an OK position but expects to be in a much stronger position come June 8th.
Yep - she will be in a stronger position. Will the country be in a stronger position? Oh well, who gives a sh1t about that?
The SNP should definitely spread outside Scotland. We could all do with a centre party. They could be called the.. erm... British National Party...?
DrJ well I think the country will be in a much better position as a result of a significantly increased Tory majority. Any sort of (currenct) Labour / SNP / Lib Dem coalition would be a catastrophe.
DrJ well I think the country will be in a much better position as a result of a significantly increased Tory majority.
You only say that because you like Tory policies.
The referendum result was 52/48 - or 17/16 if we keep it simpler.
52-48 - a win for leave but a near equal division.
And she claims she wants a "united" Parliament because we are a "united" people.
Parliament should be split, that's what it's for and that's how it would represent the result.
Behaving like the result was 99/1, and Parliament is misrepresentative, is not democracy. But that's what she's seeking to do.
You only say that because you like Tory policies.
My responce would be they are the ONLY credible ones. Quite simply no sensible workable alternatives are available today.
@matt we have had two different types of democracy in the last 12 months, every vote counts Referendum and now the GE. It seems neither have or will produce a result you wish for. That's democracy for you.
It's not about the result I want, it's about the winners behaving as if the losers' opinions mattered with some kind of proportionality to the vote split. This applies to referendums and the obviously flawed FPTP system.
And while I'm on it, its about the winners calling those who dissent undemocratic, saboteurs, traitors ... too. I don't believe you've done that but I'm sure you recognise many of your belief do.
Worrying times for our country.
My responce would be they are the ONLY credible ones.
Like I said - you like Tory policies...
So a 2 to 1 majority is required to call an early GE. A far smaller majority is required to support the biggest change affecting the UK in the last 50 years. Oh and there will probably end up being a majority government voted for by about a third of the electorate. Funny stuff this democracy.
Yeah and the irony is some people voted leave because the EU is, wait for it, "undemocratic".