Corbyn has little choice on A50 as many Labour consituencies voted Leave very strongly. Plus of course his longstanding and well documented opposition (on his own website and his voting record) to the European Union. If Labour loses those Leave voters they will likely lose many of those seats.
SNP will of course try make maximum noise, better to attack "Westminster" than try and use all the new devolved powers they have to try and do something positive.
As far as they are concerned, they ARE doing something positive, don't you think?
I think a few were spooked by the richmond result
Most have that result wrong though, the Lib Dems won because Goldsmith is an arse, come a general election and a proper Tory candidate and I just can't see it being anything other than blue.
SNP need to reverse the feeling everything is moving to the central belt to the determent of the rest of Scotland.
come a general election and a proper Tory candidate and I just can't see it being anything other than blue.
like vince cable? 😉
jambalaya - Member
SNP will of course try make maximum noise, better to attack "Westminster" than try and use all the new devolved powers they have to try and do something positive.
Harumph.
The real problem for the SNP is the 20% of their voters who voted OUT. Anecdotally there are lot of folk moving from NO to YES as they consider it more important to be in the EU than the UK - my parents for example actually campaigned for NO last time but now would vote YES. But this trend is not reflected in the polls. I guess a bunch of folk are moving the other way - that 20% of SNP voters who voted Yes and OUT might have decided the UK is better than the EU? Hard to figure out why no real movement in the polls and I am very surprised by it.
Jamba - the new powers that are basically meaningless and an obvious trap set by the tories?
@TJ did you see that Government stat of the amount of business Scotland does with UK vs EU ? Having tariff free access to the UK is much more important. An iS will look very exposed economically with a WTO deal with the UK and a $50 oil price.
The new powers allow the Scots to raise taxes, its a trap in the sense that will cost them money not raise more. No more a trap than UK faces
Given 67% of labour voters didn't feel like quitting on Europe, I suspect the sensible move would be to come out for remain.
There are some strong Brexy labour constituencies but the Brexy vote there could easily split far left far right letting a moderate remain candidate clean up.
Then there is York Outer with its Brexy Tory MP. We voted remain overall. There are s few constituencies like that where a strong showing by labour and the libdems for remain could easily upset the Tory majority.
Act 2 opens. Interesting times.
[quote=jambalaya ] An iS will look very exposed economically with a WTO deal with the UK and a $50 oil price.
Estimated 24 billion barrels of oil remaining in the North Sea
That's worth $1.2 TRILLION at the current $50 per barrel
I'm sure we'll be ok on the tax take from that
And if we're such a poor wee nation, and such a drain on the English taxpayer, why are you so keen to hold on to us?
EDIT
And how do all these piddly wee countries survive with a WTO deal?
tjagain - Member - Block User - Quote
The real problem for the SNP is the 20% of their voters who voted OUT. Anecdotally there are lot of folk moving from NO to YES as they consider it more important to be in the EU than the UK - my parents for example actually campaigned for NO last time but now would vote YES. But this trend is not reflected in the polls. I guess a bunch of folk are moving the other way - that 20% of SNP voters who voted Yes and OUT might have decided the UK is better than the EU? [b]Hard to figure out why no real movement in the polls and I am very surprised by it.[/b]
The polls fly in the face of everything I'm hearing from actually speaking to people.
Everyone I've asked who was a no voter before, is now a yes voter. And I've asked a lot of people.
I've never been polled. I've never heard of anyone I know being polled. I suspect they pull the poll results out of thin air.
That a question I have yet to see answered Bob
Jamba - also the tories have said publicly that every penny the scots raise in extra tax will be taken off the block grant. NOt official policy but enough influential folk have said it that I am sure they will try. You going on about that discredited laffer curve nonsense again?
If the H of C votes against the Brexit vote then the government could easily walk away resulting in chaos until a new election can be run, then god knows what happens.
The best outcome for May would be lose the HoC vote. Use that an an excuse to call a Gen Election on a remain ticket (change the law to allow a shorter term) come back with a workable majority instead of 12 and carry on as if nothing had happened.
Regrettably, Johnson, Davies and Fox would need to resign having failed to deliver.
Problem solved. Simples.
The tricky bit is losing the vote.
Bob -if the SNPs own polling was showing anything different do you not think they would be shouting it from the rooftops?
Anecdote is not evidence remeber
And if we're such a poor wee nation, and such a drain on the English taxpayer, why are you so keen to hold on to us?
I am not sure that we are. The English have never voted on whether they want Scotland to remain in UK. The level of racism shown via the Brexit vote would make me wager on England voting for Scotland to leave (helped along by some campaign BS about how Scottish people are the cause for all ills)
Right Theresa, prepare 3 line (max) motion, present it, get it passed, trigger A50 and get ready to start negotiations in April. Let's see if Jezza's good for his word.
Some astonishing claptrap being spouted today including let's have a second referendum and we didn't vote to leave the single market. The lack of basic understanding on the latter shows how stupid the former is as an idea.
Kerley - given the veiled racism (from the ugly elements of both sides actually) during the independence referendum you may be right.
As a Scot living in England, English nationalism is something that worries me (and let me be clear 99% of folk are fine, lovely even, 99% of the time - it's the rest that is worrying)
Some astonishing claptrap being spouted today including let's have a second referendum and we didn't vote to leave the single market. The lack of basic understanding on the latter shows how stupid the former is as an idea.
That needs more explanation.
Estimated 24 billion barrels of oil remaining in the North SeaThat's worth $1.2 TRILLION at the current $50 per barrel
To put that into perspective the costs of some of the newest fields in the North sea are BP Clair Ridge $7.5 billion and Nexen Golden Eagle $3.3 billion. Dana Western Isles is hitting nearly $2 billion, isn't yet onstream and needs an oil price of $95 a barrel to break even.
PS any of you EU debaters in London currently?
That needs more explanation.
No it doesn't
At best we can negotiate a form of access to the single market depending on how red the lines are on FOM etc.
Leave won, get over it. Most of the dross being spouted today is nothing more than an attempt Ito ignore the vote.
The Tories git bad advice/were arrogant, they have had their wrists slapped and they now have to do things correctly. Nothing more than that....unless there are 24/7 news channels to feed. There is no surprise today.
THM - remind me
Are there any countries in the single market but not the EU? Norway perhaps?
Is there a different article to be triggered to leave the single market as opposed the the EU? 127 perhaps?
And did the voting slip mention the single market?
So they are linked, but not the same and the vote mentioned only the EU.
At best we can negotiate a form of access to the single market depending on how red the lines are on FOM etc.
Ok - so I should say 'we didn't vote on how much single market access we wanted to swap for how much migration'.. that better?
I think there were certainly some people who were expecting a Norway deal afterwards. It was talked about a lot. This was the whole point - what 'out' would look like was not at all discussed, as I'm sure you'll remember.
Most of the dross being spouted today is nothing more than an attempt Ito ignore the vote.
But there should be a debate on how to shape the exit, shouldn't there? Isn't that what this is? The focus of my despair has shifted slightly from May to MPs in general. I don't want them to roll over and support her frankly bonkers plans.
The Tories git bad advice/were arrogant
They are still being arrogant.
The Tories git bad advice/were arrogant, they have had their wrists slapped and they now have to do things correctly
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By the way did anyone notice if Farage lead 100,000 marchers to the Supreme Court?
Wimped out I think.
igm - Member - Block User - Quote
By the way did anyone notice if Farage lead 100,0000 marchers to the Supreme Court?
Unlikely. It appears he was on a couch with Pierced Organ
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Spicer said there were 120,000 - but you might want to take that with a pinch of salt
Are we back on arguing that a vote to Leave the EU automically gives a mandate to leave the ECJ, ECHR, Single Market, Customs Union… on and on… despite lots of countries being selectively members of some and not others? It was a vote to leave the EU. It was narrowly won, and, in my opinion, far too narrowly won for the government to claim any mandate for a bonfire of our relationships with all supra-national bodies in Europe, and a grand repeal of domestic regulations and protections that have built up while we've been in the EU. Don't let a group of [s]nutters[/s] [i]highly principled core anti-EU campaigners[/i] dictate what the referendum vote meant, beyond the simple truth that, on a particular day last year, more people wanted to leave then remain in the EU.
Don't confuse "membership of" with "access to."
Very different things.
That is why I said "leave" rather than "stop being a full member".
Don't confuse "membership of" with "access to."
So which did we vote for again?
What an absolute total ****up. Really ****ing depressed again now. Definitely going to look for jobs in Sweden now.
...selectively members ?
The referendum was not about one type or the other it was about whether the great British people wanted to leave the EU or not. They voted to leave.
But there should be a debate on how to shape the exit, shouldn't there? Isn't that what this is? The focus of my despair has shifted slightly from May to MPs in general. I don't want them to roll over and support her frankly bonkers plans.
There is a good reason why the debate around, and a public vote on, the shape of the exit, is being avoided at all costs.
Lots of contradictory views of what leaving the EU entails is how the Leave vote was won. Trying to narrow that down to one view that the majority of Brits aren't dead set against, is impossible.
[i]They voted to leave[/i] [b]the EU.[/b]
The referendum was not about one type or the other it was about whether the great British people wanted to leave the EU or not. They voted to leave.
Yes but you know full well that you can be out of it but still have a wide variety of relationships with it. So why is there no public consensus on what our relationship will be? Why do we have to conform to May's own idea?
A possible (but now unlikely thanks to the government) new position for us…
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My country voted against leaving 2:1
😉
I think that diagram is rather good - for one reason.
None of the circles is labelled "single market".
I think the EEA is closest to what I understand the single market to be (we are currently members by the way and it's not clear that by leaving the EU we cease to be members).
Article 127 of the EEA agreement sets out the mechanism for leaving the single market. it doesn't say a former EU country ceases to be in the EEA when it leaves the EU. (Though apparently May thinks it does just like she thought she could thwart parliamentary sovereignty)
whether the great British people wanted to leave the EU or not
Oooh. Ignore the Northern Irish why don't you THM. 😉
None of the circles is labelled "single market".
Because, surprise surprise, it's not that simple. Ask farmers in Norway.
EEA "requires" FOM - complete or partial, "We" want to stops the nasties coming in (apparently) hence its off the table. MAy is somewhere between FTA and customs union but much more towards the former as a basis for her bespoke deal.
Neither major party will achieve consensus in the issue, the Lib Dems just want to ignore the vote, the Welsk want to ignore their people and the SNP are just mischief making. WTF is going to be achieved by having this table debate the issues. We have done that. And we know the result, Stop fannying around - this is a negotiation remember, we have a minor card to play against the EUs trumps. All this BS today makes you think it's the other way around. It's not.
Oops, that's what 24 hours north of the border does for you. Good spot my friend!
Article 127 of the EEA agreement sets out the mechanism for leaving the single market. it doesn't say a former EU country ceases to be in the EEA when it leaves the EU.
No but being in the EAA means you agree to the four freedoms:
The EEA Agreement provides for the inclusion of EU legislation covering the four freedoms — the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital — throughout the 31 EEA States.
([url= http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement ]Source[/url])
And FOM is a red line for Theresa May so I can't see how we could stay in the EEA?
Isn't what your describing basically the "Norway Solution", leave the EU and rejoin EFTA? I think that has been pretty comprehensively ruled out now.
Ruled out by the government, ahead of negotiations. Not ruled out by the referendum.
Unlikely. It appears he was on a couch with Pierced Organ
Did they review Trainspotting 2?