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I keep on having to remind myself that this part of the negotiations was predicted to be far easier than the impending trade talks.
Holy ****.
Only just read THM's reply to me. Tedium. Still pretending Norway, Turkey etc don't have the arrangements they have with the EU. What a timewaster.
As for leaks… if true… about time. "Bill" is what everyone was expecting, yes? Well, what "remoaners" were expecting anyway. Not sure what the plan is for preparing others for the shock of Brexit costing, not saving, money, but hey.
Northwind - Member
perditus - Member
Torygraph smoke screen/distraction .......https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/935563788107042817
The responses there right now are amazing
I've actually finally set up a Twitter account just to post on there.lol
Three are some right bonkzoids on there posting away!
Some of them are intentionally funny, and genius. But this is my favourite:
"It certainly is 1.13 euros to £, pound is back to its pre referendum levels"
Yes, if by pre-referendum you mean 2011. Absolute delusion.
From that little ray of sunshine David Blanchflower
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/29/the-prospects-for-growth-are-not-looking-good-and-may-get-worse?CMP=twt_gu
Only just read THM's reply to me. Tedium. Still pretending Norway, Turkey etc don't have the arrangements they have with the EU. What a timewaster.
On the contrary. This was acknowledged from the outset. As was the fact that neither the Norwegian nor Turkish deals for giving access to the single market are either comprehensive or suitable for the uk. It is delusional to pretend otherwise - one had to completely misunderstand (1) the nature of their deals and (2) the nature of our trading relationship with the EU.
That is an extraordinary waste of time. But st least it’s a small step towards understanding the difference between membership of and access to. Small steps....
But feel free kelvin to waste your own time by ignoring what membership of the EU does and doesn’t mean. 😯
Maybe mol was correct after all!!
So the Mail ignores it, the express says May is playing hard ball, the majority of those that covered it go "bows to pressure"
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-42161259
I wonder if it will come out that N10 had anything to do with the Prince's timing?
don't see why they are so keen on getting to the trade talks.
"Hey Barnier, What can we get with no greasy foreigners?"
But feel free kelvin to waste your own time by ignoring what membership of the EU does and doesn’t mean.
We get that there are countries that are not members of the EU, but operate in the SM and/or CU, and so do you. The referendum result was not "the people" asking to be outside either the SM or CU, that is a decision being made by politicans
Infinite loop.
No you simply musunderstand how the Eu is structured and works. By implication you are also arguing that the thickos got it wrong too. Perhaps they didn’t?
We are now negotiating the terms of our access.
We get that there are countries that are not members of the EU, but operate in the SM and/or CU, and so do you. The referendum result was not "the people" asking to be outside either the SM or CU, that is a decision being made by politicans
Deafening silence on the whistling front from the Horrible Foreigners.
Is anyone else thinking the glaringly obvious? That having caved in on the divorce bill, the UK government is clearly in such a weak negotiating position that they'll ultimately have to cave in on the other intractable problems too?
So if the EU plays hardball, which they're clearly doing, then we'll have to remain in the customs union to prevent a hard border in Ireland as the only acceptable solution? Then we'd have to retain a level of harmonisation in all other areas for this to be the case? Single market membership? remaining under the jurisdiction of the European court of justice?
This house of cards could come tumbling down pretty damn quickly really. I think the answer from the EU will be 'non' to any trade talks until the Ireland border issue is resolved to their satisfaction. And I would imagine that 'to their satisfaction' will only accept the above.
Let's hope so eh?
I'm pretty certain that's what the view presently looks like from Brussels. As Boris so astutely noted... they've got us over a barrel
As long as we remain in the single market with open borders I'll be grudgingly reasonably happy - though disappointed we will have thrown away any influence in Europe.
I wonder if it will come out that N10 had anything to do with the Prince's timing?
Probably not in that direction, but were briefed in advance about when it was likely to be announced as would be the normal custom.
Bit of a hopeless approach though, the bad news comes pretty much every day, there's too much to hide behind the skirts of a new princess.
Interesting article in yesterdays Guardian by Polly Toynbee (yes, yes, I know..... but bear with me)
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/27/irish-question-save-britain-brexit-leo-varadkar ]The Irish Question may save Britain from Brexit[/url]
That raises quite a few interesting possibilities, not least Brexit and the border being the issue that finally changes Sinn Féins attitude to taking its Westminster seats to put a further spanner in the Brexit works
Is anyone keeping a running total of what the combined cost of Brexit will be to the UK, across Government and Industry?
If we just tell Barnier et al to go **** themselves, at what point would the penalties of being a true third country outweigh the upfront/on-going cost of access to the single market?
I'm warming to idea of no deal, just to see what happens!
I'm warming to idea of no deal, just to see what happens!
Serious? Despite everyone who knows anything warning us of how bad that could be for trade and business?
While you're driving home tonight, you could put your foot down, close your eyes, then take your hands off the wheel...... just to see what happens!
Unfortunately, it seems there are enough Tory hardline Brexiteers who do genuinely think this kind of Ayn Rand 'creative chaos' bollocks. But then when you've enough wealth and power to be safely insulated from any of the consequences, I suppose you have the luxury of that?
If we just tell Barnier et al to go **** themselves, at what point would the penalties of being a [b]true third country[/b] outweigh the upfront/on-going cost of access to the single market?
Did you mean a true third world country? Or a country split in three? Or did it just autocorrect from 'turd'?
Pretty quickly. What other country would be willing to do a trade deal with a nation that reneges on its financial commitments with such eagerness? The smell of desperation would be pretty enticing, though.
I'm warming to idea of no deal, just to see what happens!
Hope you've planted your veg for next year, á la Gove.
Serious? Despite everyone who knows anything warning us of how bad that could be for trade and business?
The interview on Ch4 news with the manager of Ford in Europe was quite an eye opener - he said a hard brexit would cost Ford about £1b in tariffs per year.
Did you mean a true third world country? Or a country split in three? Or did it just autocorrect from 'turd'?
'Third Country' is an EU term. It refers to any country truly outside the EU i.e. without membership or any kind of single market access.
Every day's a school day etc. Thanks.
BTW - no deal is still an appalling idea.
BTW - no deal is still an appalling idea.
I thought it was better than a bad deal?
The appalling idea was Brexit per se. If this Government actually takes us out of the EU, I'm of a mind that perhaps the pain of a couple of years under the terms of a hard Brexit is worthwhile so that the 52% actually understand what membership gave us.
Out of interest, if we do leave, what's the process for reapplying in the future? Who would be likely to veto our application?
27 countries who feel we’ve messed them around and can’t be trusted to choose from...
No, I think they’d have us back, but on their terms this time. No rebate, no pound.
Whether we’d accept that...
Is anyone keeping a running total of what the combined cost of Brexit will be to the UK, across Government and Industry?
The decision alone - without any agreement in terms for going forward, is currently costing us £50M per week.
When the GDP starts to turn further south, expect this to get much worse. THEN add on what we are paying to leave and associated costs.
I think we’re already well over £100bn in those terms.
That could change if we get a biggly beautiful trade deal, but at present account settling circa £40-50bn and loss of GDP growth £60bn by end 2018 (yes before we’ve actually left)
Iain Duncan Smith is being interviewed about it on Five Live about all this.
It makes for pretty depressing listening, knowing that people as profoundly stupid, blinkered, xenophobic and nasty are the ones presently holding the government to ransom and dictating policy.
The reality of this situation seems to be that there is no way these imbeciles will support any deal with the EU that involves paying them anything. There is nothing they won't sacrifice at the altar of their totally irrational anti-EU rhetoric. They're ****ing unhinged, the lot of them
"If we just tell Barnier et al to go **** themselves, at what point would the penalties of being a true third country outweigh the upfront/on-going cost of access to the single market?"
As has been said I'm not sure why it keeps being called a 'divorce bill' - we are simply honouring commitments made whilst members of the EU. If we had done otherwise why would any other country want to enter into a FTA with a country that had a track record of reneging on its obligations under such arrangements.
So if the EU plays hardball, which they're clearly doing, then we'll have to remain in the customs union to prevent a hard border in Ireland as the only acceptable solution?
I said immediately after the referendum that there would be no negotiation and that the EU would present a take it or leave it offer. That is exactly how it's panning out.
On the Irish question there are only two options. Stay in the customs union at the very least, or move the border to the Irish sea. The brexiteer loons won't accept the former, the DUP won't accept the latter. Either way May's days are numbered. We could have a new election very soon.
The brexiteer loons won't accept the former, the DUP won't accept the latter. Either way May's days are numbered. We could have a new election very soon
but no one wants the job, Moggy got all demure when his name was being chucked about as a potential leader
Johnson suddenly shut his mouth when it looked like he was undermining May too much at that amazing Tory conference
the Brexit chalice gets more poisonous by the day, Im not even sure Corbyn is that keen on it right now
issue that finally changes Sinn Féins attitude
Aye Sinn Fein will bin abstentionism just to rescue the brits from brexit.
😆 lala land.
Aye Sinn Fein will bin abstentionism just to rescue the brits from brexit.lala land.
Or, SF (how do you do a fada on windows??) do what they think is most likely to bring about a united Ireland...
Oh well, the fact that all the pharma companies are shitting themselves and scrambling to setup QC labs in mainland Europe is proving to be a boon to me.... I'm getting some nuts... completely and utterly bonkers money... more than double what I am on now... offers for roles that require me to spend half my time in the eurozone.
As has been said I'm not sure why it keeps being called a 'divorce bill' - we are simply honouring commitments made whilst members of the EU.
And yet look at how this is being misrepresented over and over again
.... and by whom
Its almost as if they had their own agenda?
What to overturn the result ?
As has been said I'm not sure why it keeps being called a 'divorce bill' - we are simply honouring commitments made whilst members of the EU.
That's what a divorce bill/settlement is isn't it?
I do feel that we should have been enable to negotiate a number of years of free access, as now, in return for this payment though.
If this Government actually takes us out of the EU, I'm of a mind that perhaps the pain of a couple of years under the terms of a hard Brexit is worthwhile so that the 52% actually understand what membership gave us.
Well most of them seem to ignore the drop in GDP as being irrelevant ignoring the fact we were one of the fastest growing before the vote but now bumping along the bottom.
What to overturn the result ?
I presumed the opposite. Isn't it the outers who coined that phrase? It has pretty negative connotations*, and seems designed to stoke up resentment to 'those bloody Europeans'
* She wants me to pay the children's school fees as well as taking the house?!! Well, she can bally well whistle for it?!!!! 😆
I see there is an option for those keen on the "divorce bill":
https://www.gofundme.com/pay-our-brexit-divorce-bill
😆
Oh well, the fact that all the pharma companies are shitting themselves and scrambling to setup QC labs in mainland Europe is proving to be a boon to me.... I'm getting some nuts... completely and utterly bonkers money... more than double what I am on now... offers for roles that require me to spend half my time in the eurozone.
Sounds awesome to me 🙂
[url= 
:large]Brexiteers' wibbling on Ireland taken down in style[/url]
If the 'grown ups' have been talking, what exactly is the f'in point of David Davis?
Comedy Value..
Isn't he getting raf'ed in for 5k a throw rather than that useful Eurostar thing as well or is that just tabloid stirring.
StefMcDef - that's bloody brilliant!! 😆
[url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/it-took-six-months-and-a-lot-of-work-but-weve-caved-completely-says-david-davis-20171129140020 ]A statement just issued by David Davis[/url]
^ 😆 (@Stef’s link)
A lot more entertaining than some of the Ireland related wibbling I’ve had to read on this thread.
😀
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/29/labour-demands-vote-for-mps-on-brexit-divorce-bill ]It would appear that the labour party's strategy to unseat May is becoming clearer.[/url]
And Hogan sending +ve vibes now......
We might even start proper negotiations soon 😉
[url= http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20171129IPR89108/brexit-progress-but-not-enough ]EU Parliament not convinced enough progress has been made [/url]
Despite this, considerable problems remain, which pose a fundamental question as to whether sufficient progress has been achieved. These issues have already been underlined by the Brexit Steering Group in its Statement of 8 November on citizens' rights. While all of them remain important, we wish to call your attention to the following issues.First, we cannot accept any differentiated treatment between core family members. Bold steps should be taken now to prevent this from happening and to overcome the current deadlock. In particular, we should avoid creating a situation in which children of EU citizens born from different relationships would find themselves having a different legal status from that of children born before Brexit, therefore resulting in a possible split of families.
Second, on the administrative procedure required in order to achieve so-called "settled status", we take note of the progress made in the last weeks, but can only reiterate that this must be an automatic, cost-free process in the form of a simple declaration, placing the burden of proof on the UK authorities to challenge the declaration.
If we offered EU citizens third country equivalent status what would their reaction be?
Ach, just offer FoM of labour. It’s easier.
Yes no need to worry about UK citizens rights after all 😯
It’ll be right.
Probably - since it’s been a bluff from the start to prevent negotiations rather than a serious issue 😯
Yay, let's celebrate paying at least £40bn to be worse off.
This is the beginning of the end for Brexit. The EU have us over a barrel, after we obligingly put ourselves there.
Best to call the whole thing off now.
And yes, to hell with the 'majority'. They were wrong. The grown-ups know better. No shame in admitting it, guys.
Smug, moi? You betcha.
teamhurtmore - Member
As has been said I'm not sure why it keeps being called a 'divorce bill' - we are simply honouring commitments made whilst members of the EU.
And yet look at how this is being misrepresented over and over again
See what I mean?
‘Course, if we agree reciprocal FoM labour, we’ll probably get a decent trade deal and the combination will mean the Irish border won’t be an issue.
the racists wont be accepting the free movement of labour as they oppose immigration
the RW wont be supporting it as they only support the free movement of Money as they value that above people.
Clearly "immigration" was one of the main reason for the Leave vote and clearly May - who failed every year as Home secretary to address this - does actually want to do the christian thing and shut the door on others.
IMHO there is no way this tory party with that leader will budge on it but i hope I am wrong.
More relief and reality
IFS debunks the scare stories on hit to public finances noting that most of the bill was money the UK would be paying in if it had stayed in the EU and the fact that the more important issue is growth...
...cue
... upgrade of UK growth forecasts in 2018 and 2019 yesterday by a German bank!!
Not good days for the doomsday brigade but better for the rest of us. En marche!
I thought those upgrades were from shoddy to poor when I looked THM. Did I get that wrong?
And as for the money being money we’d have paid anyway if we’d stayed, I’d hope so,isn’t that what settling our accounts means?
The second one at least isn’t news, the first merely slightly less gloomy news - no?
IFS debunks the scare stories on hit to public finances noting that most of the bill was money the UK would be paying in if it had stayed in the EU and the fact that the more important issue is growth...
So just the UK pays and gets nothing in return, what page of the brochure was that on 😉
Yes IGM you did 😉
Does it go over 2% growth then?
Quick check suggests they’re on their own if they forecast over 2%.
2%+ ??? Calm down - it’s not a boom 😉
So the Eurozone is booming?
rumours of breakthrough re Irish Border
Davis foleded again? months of pointless posturing has damaged the UKs credibility & economy
waits to see how the DUP react
StefMcDef - that's bloody brilliant!!A statement just issued by David Davis
Utter genius because it is totally true! 😀
So is every stage of progress going to be greeted with dismay?
teamhurtmore - Member
So is every stage of progress going to be greeted with dismay?
you're right thm we should rejoice in the governments incompetence
We should be happy that a hard Brexit is becoming less likely - otherwise we would be living up to the remoaner tag!
Still some are still pretending that no progress was or even would be made! Not surprising that they have gone quiet....
Still hoping that the hardliners will now vote against the 50bn etc etc and end up destroying the whole process in the same way that the Freedom Caucus effectively sabotaged the GOP/Trump's Health Bill because it didn't go far enough, and ended up with nothing to show for it (so far).
Who's gone quiet?
Lots of headlines and media time being grabbed by Leavers saying we shouldn't do what needs doing (to achieve what they say they want), perhaps they are drowning out the "of course the UK needs to make these positive moves, why didn't we do so months ago" responses from others.
Still hoping the predictions of "red lines" becoming "pink lines" come true, but I doubt it without a new PM. Of course this one, wisely, has never made payments of any kind, at any point, for any reason, a red line.
Now what are the rumours as regards the border? I'm open to some good news this week…
Noise
The reality is progress is being made and we may even get on to proper negotiations soon. That’s what matters
The reality is progress is being made and we may even get on to proper negotiations soon. That’s what matters
Isn't "progress being made" the new "strong and stable"?
So the rumours of progress over the border issue are "noise", but you're complaining about people not responding positively to it?
Timewaster.
I'll come back to this thread again when people have room to discuss things, without your games.
No the crap from leavers is noise
But enjoy the break
Rhubarb.
Single word answers are rarely clear.
So, Leavers are "making noise", and Remoaners are "keeping quiet"…? I thought you've been keen for people who still think we should stay in the EU to keep quiet anyway? No sign that they are… and the people welcoming rumours about getting money issues out of the way have been mostly of that ilk… Ken Clarke's words in the house were noticeable yesterday, for a start.
Anyway… what are the rumours about the border…? All good news welcome.
The reality is progress is being made and we may even get on to proper negotiations soon.
[url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/brexit-divorce-gives-northern-ireland-to-uk-in-week-and-eu-at-weekends-20171130140061 ]That'd be nice, wouldn't it?[/url]