When has the UK argued for no deal?

Stop listening to the nutters and their spokesmen and look at what is actually happening

We are negotiating a FTA.

every day we dont agree the exit bill is a day nearer to no deal?

It is indeed. So we need to get going. Unfortunately one side wants to delay this as much as possible.

Ed please put a smiley after joke questions as it might be misunderstood as a serious question

The leavers have already been bullied off the forum

No, they repeatedly posted nonsense and were repeatedly called out for it. They're quite entitled to their opinions, they're just not entitled for those opinions to be taken as fact.

And a big slice of govt’s tax take!

Nowhere near as much as it should be, and you damn well know that.

No, they repeatedly posted nonsense and were repeatedly called out for it.

No much worse. And look at the BS the bullies post on a daily basis and then complain when they get called out for it. Bullying and hypocrisy combined.

How so mefty?

The two big issues are trade and FOM. Trade is dependent upon the FTA, FOM could be relatively easily solved by having a special regime for movement between Ireland and NI. Providing there are sensible restrictions, it will only apply to a relatively small population.

Bullying and hypocrisy combined.

Well, you'd know a fair bit about both of those things

Pot kettle black

Nowhere near as much as it should be, and you damn well know that.

I gosh-darned well don’t!

Still a lot more than if the industry wasn’t here, of course! And if it was much more, would they be? Dilemma!

FOM could be relatively easily solved

But if that part is easy to solve then why is it such a big obstacle that is blocking the later talks?

it will only apply to a relatively small population.

An estimated 30,000 people cross that border every day for their work.

http://www.factcheckni.org/facts/do-30000-people-cross-ireland-northern-ireland-border-daily/

Mefty - there’s a small but decisive shift.

To close to call in my view so not decisive.

£70bn in tax revenues that the EU govs want to get their hands on

30,000 is a small population in the context of the UK and even smaller in the context of the EU. Giving them special treatment shouldn't put much strain on either entity.

Still a lot more than if the industry wasn’t here, of course! And if it was much more, would they be? Dilemma!

No dilema for the EU, get rid of the UK and getting tax in gets easier for Germany and France in particular.

teamhurtmore - Member
It is indeed. So we need to get going. Unfortunately one side wants to delay this as much as possible.

thatd be the side that comit to the exit bill then?

maybe Mays waiting until shes trong & stable enough to take the domestic flak of admitting itll cost 60bn.... any minute now

Stop listening to the nutters and their spokesmen

Who's that then, theresa may and the tories? 😆

mefty - Member
30,000 is a small population in the context of the UK and even smaller in the context of the EU. Giving them special treatment shouldn't put much strain on either entity.

precedents though innit, next thing you know the catalans will want something similar....

mefty: I agree it is a small [i]relative[/i] population, but the question remains: if it is so easy to sort out then why is it also such a stumbling block?

If we have an open border between NI and the Republic then it is sorted, but then we have to have a harder border between NI and the rest of the UK.

Will we end up with a migrant/refugee camp at Larne equivalent to the one at Calais? Or folk trying to sneak boats across the 20km of sea from Torr to Mull of Kintyre?

mefty - Member

30,000 is a small population in the context of the UK and even smaller in the context of the EU.

That 30,000 number is an estimate by the EU commission into of the number of NI workers going into the republic each. There's probably an equal number of people making the opposite journey and triple that number making the same journey for trade and daily tasks.

The office for national statistics estimates that there 118,000 vehicle border crossings a day and 110 million border crossings a year.

Where I live there are 330,000 cross border journeys a week.

Giving them special treatment shouldn't put much strain on either entity.

You can't "give them special treatment". People either have freedom of movement or they don't. And if they don't people will start killing. And if there's freedom of movement that means EU nationals who arrive in Dublin will be free to enter the UK.

Anyone done the cyprus border crossing?

its not exactly fun (actually the guards on the turkish side were a laugh)

mefty: I agree it is a small relative population, but the question remains: if it is so easy to sort out then why is it also such a stumbling block?

The EU's issue is "integrity of the single market and the customs union", so that is a trade issue hence why where we get to on trade is important. I think the people issue is much easier if you have a special regime that gives FOM to the NI and the Irish. Afterall we have been making a special case for the Irish ever since independence. apart from a hiatus during and after WWII.

mefty - Member

Mefty - there’s a small but decisive shift.

To close to call in my view so not decisive.

Fair enough. But a small margin running for 4 or 5 months when previously it had been consistently the other way is pretty notable.
The polls do not, as THM said, run counter to my comments. I accept that your view is they don’t absolutely support it (I question that) but that wasn’t what THM said - he said indicate otherwise which they absolutely do not.

mefty - Member

I think the people issue is much easier if you have a special regime that gives FOM to the NI and the Irish. Afterall we have been making a special case for the Irish ever since independence. apart from a hiatus during and after WWII.

This post is meaningless though. It's not about FOM for Irish and NI people, it's about the obvious back door into the UK via Ireland for people from anywhere in the EU.

Pot kettle black

Yes, that's what I was saying about you when you were somewhat hypocritically bemoaning the "bullies" earlier.

You could try developing a shred of empathy for some more worthwhile causes

This post is meaningless though. It's not about FOM for Irish and NI people, it's about the obvious back door into the UK via Ireland for people from anywhere in the EU.

We rely on Ireland's border controls at present as we are both outside Schengen and there is a Common Travel Area, not sure there is any need for change.

We rely on Ireland's border controls at present as we are both outside Schengen and there is a Common Travel Area, not sure there is any need for change.

EU nationals walk straight through those checks though. So, unless you also put border controls in Belfast and Larne(which is as daft and idea as putting up checkpoints on the border), then EU nationals have defacto FOM in the UK.

no idea, why anyone wants to put up borders with the EU at all though, it's silly, I'd have entered schengen a long time ago.

I'd also suggest there's every possibility Ireland could join schengen in the future.

It depends what worries one about FOM. Hardly anyone cares about people travelling across borders, the key issue is the ability to set up home in another country, work there etc and that can be policed without the need for a border between NI and Ireland.

The Brexiteer MP’s, their financiers and “influencers” know they have crossed the Rubicon.

They honestly don’t care if there is a deal, a border, a blue, red or green passport. They've gone beyond. Just look at the smirk on Patel’s face on the way to being fired. She [b][i]knows[/i][/b].

There will be a futile realisation in the Conservative & Labour political machinery that they were just pawns in a revolution.

Brexiteers have gone full Bolshevik/Khmer Rouge/National Socialist and just like them, they will destroy everything to “save” everything.

And I genuinely though Hatton, Benn and Foot were dangerous...

mefty - Member
It depends what worries one about FOM. Hardly anyone cares about people travelling across borders, the key issue is the ability to set up home in another country, work there etc and that can be policed without the need for a border between NI and Ireland.

Can also be policed without the need for brexit too within existing laws. And it's hardly like there's going to be heavy restrictions placed on EU nationals coming to live and work here anyhow..

The whole argument is bunkum.

Hardly anyone cares about people travelling across borders,

mefty did you meiss the brexit referendum?

[img] [/img]

[img] [/img]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/21/vote-leave-prejudice-turkey-eu-security-threat

[img] [/img]

thanks to the bigotry stirred up in the brexit debate theres little differentiation between travelling here or setting up home, its all just evil immigrants,

and more to the point how do you differntiate between someone travelling across a border & someone coming here to set up a home?

Zokes - stating the obvious about what the negotiations are fundamentally about has no relevance either way regarding empathy. That posse members chose to jump on that comment and extend it incorrectly to suit their need to abuse is another point. FWIW I have constantly argued for full FoM so I can hardly be cosidered unsympathetic to anyone whose family is caught up in the uncertainty from both sides. Plus I have just been arranging visas for non UK nationals to joint my team and stay in the UK.

But that has no bearing on either the responsibilities of HM Gov or on the way that the EU has chosen not to negotiate. If people want to swallow their BS and if it makes then “feel” more empathetic than that is their choice. It makes SFA difference to what is actually happening. So you can put your accusations in the appropriate shady place.

EU has chosen not to negotiate

Why should the EU make it easy for Britain?

and more to the point how do you differntiate between someone travelling across a border & someone coming here to set up a home?

Well you can't, which is why it is of limited relevance and making it difficult to obtain free healthcare, employment etc without the right to reside provides a better policing mechanism. Not 100% effective, but effective enough.

NI border is an insoluble conundrum

Under the GFA it must remain an open border

If / When we leave the EU it must be a controlled border

The only way it could remain an open border is if we stay in EFTA. that requires ECJ adjudication which May has rejected

No bespoke deal is possible in the time we have left.

Superficially - no reason
Genuinely - because this is a lose:lose scenario. Being a relatively winner in that game is still being a loser

Genuinely - because this is a lose:lose scenario. Being a relatively winner in that game is still being a loser

Is it? Captialism is ultimately a competition. It makes sense to choose a "lose lose" option if the other side loses more.

Also makes sense to choose NOT to have a win win position if the other side wins more, which i suspect is why a lot of people voted to leave the EU. Whilst they gained from being in the EU, people in London etc... gained more. It wasn't fair.

I disagree - take international trade and the basic law of comparative advantage. You chose ultimately not to compete where you have no comparative advantage and through trade you have a win;win

Ditto fragmenting the City of London will have negative implications for the availability and cost of financing for European companies - a lose;lose

teamhurtmore - Member
Superficially - no reason
Genuinely - because this is a lose:lose scenario. Being a relatively winner in that game is still being a loser

is that goal still lose/lose?

Britain only has comparative advantage through abusing EU treaty agreements and engaging in fiscal and social dumping, underlying productivity is lousy. Once outside the EU the other member states don't have to put up with unfair competition and won't. Countries know how much they are currently losing but can't stop it. They will be able to if Brexit goes through.

Even trade is a lose if you run a high enough deficit to bankrupt the country.

European companies don't need the City for finance, their main interest in the City is a place to organise optimisation fiscale to avoid tax. Money is cheaper in many European countries and could be cheaper full stop with Eurobonds. I hope that Brexit means European leaders will see the advantages of Eurobonds post Brexit.

There are easy answers to all the problems you say will impact the EU post Brexit THM, Britain on the other hand is going to find itself isolated with a declining currency, companies moving out, no inward investment, mouths to feed, falling GDP in dollar/euro terms. Britian is screwed without a negotiated deal but refuses to even negotiate honestly on the prerequisits for talks.

[img] [/img]

Another earth shattering report from our French correspondent.

Joe that would be a win:win 😉

Ed, your analysis/diatribe runs completely counter to the EU’s own analysis especially in finance. But no change there.

Nearly 50% of all EU finance is raised in London which again points to your flawed points.

I wish he woulr use smileys because newcomers probably don’t get the joke and may be wondering what is being smoked over there 😉 is this bloke serious ??? (And another ? For fun)

Well once the banks currently in London have bases in Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris or wherever that 50% will still be available but just not from the square mile. Moving a few servers and staff to a new office isn't going to take long or cause much disruption. There's the bandwidth in plenty of places. There's enough bandwidth in my local town to house a big financial institution if you boss is looking for somewhere with a high quality of life for him/her and his/her employees.

Clousukator: “money is cheaper in Europe”

The EU Parliaments study in the impact of brexit “ Brexit cannot be considered a zero sum game in which financial service activities could be relocated from the UK without raising costs”

You decide which is more reliable?

I thin that a short term rise in the price of some financial services that don't impact many business will be outweighed by:

A reduction in the loss of tax revenue to tax evasion organised through the city. If big business pays more tax the consumer and medium sized companies won't have to pay as much. So most companies will gain (because most are small), most employess will gain (because most are self employed or work in small business) and citizens will gain.

The only people who really profit from using the City rather than their local bank are those who benefit from the fiddles orgainsed in the square mile - multinationals, the rich and the super rich.

The Paradise papers are making clear to the many what I've been denouncing on this thread (and for years on other threads). The reson the City has grown is because it is the centre of tax avoidance in Europe.

😀

The EU Parliaments study in the impact of brexit

We should probably check our parliament's Brexit impact studies. 58 of them I believe.

Where are they again...?

I’ve read all the equivalent papers on my industry from both sides

They were brilliant

Where are they again...?

david davis has them, but you gotta catch him....

[img] [/img]

Another earth shattering report from our French correspondent.

kimbers: http://newsthump.com/2017/11/09/all-future-uk-government-business-to-be-conducted-alongside-the-benny-hill-theme/

I’ve read all the equivalent papers on my industry from both sides
They were brilliant

Then you are better informed than the Brexit Select Committee, who were apparently not allowed to see the Brexit impact papers.

But it's okay, [url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-bercow-secret-brexit-studies-reports-sectors-government-david-davis-theresa-may-a8041446.html ]John Bercow gave the government till the end of Tuesday 7th Nov to publish them[/url], so any day now...

Not those papers obviously - but both sides have very comprehensive briefing papers on most topics. Very detailed, lots of primary and secondary data and above all stuff that’s not made up

One would hope that the official impact papers don't contain too much made up stuff either THM 😀

But given that [url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-theresa-may-brexit-reports-not-read-secret-detail-uk-economy-impact-leave-eu-a8022946.html ]the cabinet have only read the summaries[/url] and they currently seem reluctant to respect the democratic vote to release them, despite saying that they would, it may be a while till we find out.

Yay democracy.

[url= http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/business-energy-and-industrial-strategy-committee/leaving-the-eu-implications-for-the-automotive-industry/written/71644.pdf ]Honda impact statement[/url]

10% tariff would make products uncompetitive, average tariff 10%....

They've got to write the impact assessments first...

so Theresa's got something to not read?

Not those papers obviously - but both sides have very comprehensive briefing papers on most topics.

Borris Johnson had lots of briefing papers before him at that select committee talking about Zaghari-Ratcliffe , he obviously didn't bother reading them though.

Look is getting late in the day , will May stump up the £40,50,60bn ? before xmas or will we have start stocking up on tinned goods.

If she does won't be a nice present for the NHS, they'll have to wait 7 odd years for that £350million pw !

Fwiw, maybe she will she's so damaged now, what difference will it make?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36353013

Just to remind everyone what kind of people make up this "government"

Junkyard - lazarus

Another earth shattering report from our French correspondent.

another childish post from the right wing of little englandshire

Hardly suprising given that they are trying to defend the indefensible.

I saw above in a quote ( so I guess THM) that apparantly we are negotiating a free trade agreement. Its laughable the depth of delusion

To be fair Penny looks fine for the military, but a bit of a lightweight for public life.

She has a history.

Wait till ‘The Penny drops’ 🙂

Tag team member # 2: apparently we are negotiating a free trade agreement. it’s laughable to the depth of delusion

German Foreign Ministry: already prepared a comprehensive free trade accord and is recommending that the free trade deal with the U.K. should be “balanced, ambitious and far reaching”

So you have a choice: the abusive condemnation of a poster who regularly posts untrue comments or the German Foreign Ministry. You decide......

It’s a tough one I know 😉

Delusion 😀

Ok, it's a tough one, but I think I can work it out. Is THM pretending that the foreign ministry of one EU govt preparing a statement on the sort of agreement they would like to see, is the same thing as the UK actually being in the process of negotiating such a FTA with the EU negotiating team?

Surely he wouldn't be that misguided/dishonest/deluded, would he?

So what are they discussing - the weather?

I don't think the German foreign ministry is involved in any way in the brexit negotiations, is it?

No Germany had no sway in things European do they?

Is THM pretending

Neither is actually what he is like but we should all have a hobby and this is his.

Not sure being a tedious **** can really be classed as a hobby.

But internet bullying can - see above

Getting back to the point, I think Germany has significant influence within the EU, their foreign ministry substantially less, and the UK govt is certainly not involved in negotiating a FTA with them, so I don't see how you can think that their vague wish-list for motherhood and apple-pie is in any way supportive of your claim, which as far as I can tell is plainly false.

Germany to the rescue. Or not, according to today's Grauniad.

Germany is leading EU27 states in pressuring their negotiating team to take a stricter line in Brexit talks, offering the British government no hope of discussions on a future relationship with the bloc unless a definitive concession on the financial settlement is made in the next few weeks.

Good idea Captain, thank you

Well IMHO the history of Europe and particularly its relations with third parties tells us that all important matters are ultimately determined by Germany. The one exception now is the ECB is standing up to the Bundesbank on momentary policy

But Barnier is simply a front man. The only people who matter are Merkel, Macron and May (if the latter is still in place). They determine what happens most importantly Merkel. So the views of her ministry are far more important and relevant than most of the Brussels tittle tattle

The 3Ms are the true power brokers here. The test mere bit part players

Yes Dr, Merkel wants here pound of flesh too in return

[quote=teamhurtmore ]But internet bullying can - see above

how many people have left the thread because of you ?
You seem to think two wrongs [ assuming we accept your mate with no facts was bullied] make a right and I assure you Jesus is not looking down pleased with you. HE said turn the other cheek and do unto others as you would have done unto you.
Still it ups to you how you wish to act and up to us how much we wish to engage with your obvious trolling.

But Barnier is simply a front man. The only people who matter are Merkel, Macron and May

That just shows a clear lack of understanding of how the negotiations are organised.
The EU have official brexit negotiators as do the UK..

That's why it was all a bit odd when May went to Florence to make that speech that none of the influential European counterparts turned up to.

She doesn't officially negotiate on the part of the UK on brexit, although it would be daft to assume she doesn't have an influence on the UK brexit 'team' she's not steering the boat on that officially.

I assume you are aware that all EU members have veto rights on any final deal too..?

Complaining about being bullied is just as ridiculous as Trump playing the same card, if you keep saying stupid stuff, you can't really cite victimisation when you inevitably get pulled up on it.

So you can put your accusations in the appropriate shady place.

Your backside? Might shut you up for a bit, I suppose.

True colours

zokes - Still not a customer

So you can put your accusations in the appropriate shady place.

Your backside? Might shut you up for a bit, I suppose.

I thought thats where he spoke from at the best of times 😉

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/14/eu-canada-free-trade-deal-ceta-in-jeopardy-belgium-wallonia-parliament-vote

Yes it is all up to Merkel....

In the same way the crap about Turkey and no veto was spread by certain brexiteers, to say the only country that matters is Germany is also crap. Spain can veto the deal in exchange for Gibraltar. Poland can veto if its citizens don't get fair treatment etc etc etc.

I hate the term 'brexiteer' it makes them sound they have some kind of status.