[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Damn, this thread moves fast...

Anyway, this I don't understand:

Uncontrolled immigration from an ever expanding list of poor EU countries is going to drive wages and working conditions down in the UK pushing more and more jobs down to minimum wage. How on earth is that good for working people ?

You hear from politicians to pub pundits, but I don't follow the logic...

1. As an EU member, we have accept free movement of EU Nationals

2. EU migrants from Eastern Europe are perceived to have driven down UK wages, through an influx of cheap labour.

3. If we leave the EU (and don't negotiate a free trade deal), we can dispense with free movement, "take back control" of immigration and therefore reduce those claimed competitive cheap labour pressures on the UK employment market???

Is that correct???

If so, then it must be contradictory with :

4. Outside of the EU, the U.K. can take back control of our economy and become MORE COMPETETIVE.

So, Brexiteers, some soul searching and honest answers (to yourselves)

Do you envisage UK WAGES going DOWN or going UP if we leave

A. More competitive means wages down, EU migrants or not (assuming productivity remains poor)

B. Wages up means less competitive on the world stage...

If you answered A, are you an employer - with a vested interest in driving UK wages down?
If you answered B, can you seriously trust the folks that appear to be selling two contradictory things?

Well, you're both disingenuous with the facts so I'm hardly surprised..

The problem is that unlike jamba, Bozo has the power to actually damage peoples' lives, and while he's being a humourous buffoon, people are actually suffering because of his self-centred behaviour.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/16/boris-johnson-accused-of-burying-study-linking-pollution-and-deprived-schools

I'd answer C : many brexiters think that we'll be more productive by tearing up workers rights and doing away with regulation as regards environmental damage and protecting both the public and employees.

@rkk competitiveness has more facets than just low cost of Labour. As noted before 87% of UK business is non-EU related so not having to comply with all the legislation will be hugely liberating (and the legislation is not all environmental etc, a large amount is protectionist claptrap). If we can control our immigration we will be definition be able to take the best candidates for any job, so there is a quality uptick in the labour force for example. Leaving the EU will take off the downward pressure on wages allowing them to stabilise and as the economy grows more vibrantly as we interact with faster growing economies outside the EU and UK business is not bound by irrelevant EU legislation wages can rise, that's a Brexiter's scenario.

@kelvin we can see in France and Spain the impact of labour regulation - 25% youth unemployment. That's why Hollande is trying to reform it, he's even pushing through without asking Parliament via a special Presidential decree.

1. Untrue. We reject many (>6k since 2010). There is no such thing as no control except in the minds of the xenophobic

2. Argument (incorrectly) assumes that supply of labour happens in isolation, It doesnt. It increases supply AND demand and leads to marginal increases in wages. Evidence is mixed though so better to assume little or no pact. There is no evidence of a clear reduction in wages except in the minds of the xenophobic

3. Untrue. Evidence clear except.....

4. As above....

Answer C. Wages are a red herring except in the minds of the xenophobic.

Employment is much more to do with the folly of the €. Without the abilty to devalue, contries with poor unit labour costs/poor productivity have to adjust via wage deflation and/or unemployment

The BBC heard a World Migration / On-the-Move Day today. The ex head of MI6 Richard Dearlove made some very interesting statements. I paraphrase,

The EU's response to the Migrant crises has been hesitant. Unless the EU can demonstrate to its citizens it has control of the migrant situation a populist uprising is inevitable and it is already stirring. In particular allowing VISA free travel to 75m Turks at this time is like storing gasoline next to the fire we are trying to extinguish. The stakes are very high and the UK Referendum is the first roll of the dice in a larger geo-political game

[url= http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-36289420 ]BBC - videos available here - speech extracts at 18:22 GMT[/url]

Wages are a red herring except in the minds of the xenophobic.

Why? Because they need lots of people (both call centres and fruit farms). If you've ever done either job you'll know why the net needs to be cast wide to get enough staff.

@jamba - hasn't worked in the US... Which is why Trump is on a roll. US blue collar incomes have been static since the 70s. The manufacturing sector that used to employ them cannot compete with offshore manufacturers - yet they can control immigration AND set import tarrifs - ie what Leave envisage for the UK

@kelvin - I see your C as philosophically the same as my A. Brexit a cover for employers to drive costs down further, whilst creaming off more (back to the US comparison)

Yes red herring. Admittedly some contradictory research but at best one can argue a very small to small impact on low wages. Some argue that any negative impact is mainly felt by previous immigrants.

Anyway NIESR has a good look at this and concluded

In other words, the research confirms what we already thought.  Immigration may have some, small, negative impact on wages for [b]some [/b]low-paid workers. [b] But  the idea that immigration is the main or even a moderately important driver of low pay is simply not supported by the available evidence.[/b] Politicians who claim the contrary are either so obsessed with immigration that they are blind to more important issues - or they are merely trying to divert attention from their failure to propose policy measures that would actually make a meaningful difference to the low paid. 

A red herring except in the ....

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages#.VzodnGt5mSN

Red Herring ? Not if you are the working class person who's wages are being undermined. Ask yourself why First Direct's warehouse is staffed mainly by eastern europeans ? Or the fields of East Anglia are worked mainly the same way ?

Most Brits wouldn't touch agricultural labouring

ETA - I assume you mean First Direct ? If so a classic example of a crooked / greedy employer, and EXACTLY the reason why EU employment law serves UK employees.

net needs to be cast wide

except in the minds of the xenophobic

ants come to the UK to do the jobs the Brits won't touch" - I started out doing agricultural labouring

Casual farm labouring here - cold, wet, stupidly hard work

Anyone listen to PM? They had a couple of listener's questions answered. One of which was "Does any other country in the world support Britain's exit from the EU?"

The answer is no, of course. In fact many of them have implored us to stay. Even India and China asked us to. Wonder why that would be?

Racist? No idea. Hope not as that is worse than xenophobic. But given that we have been presented with no (non-falsifiable) arguments then one is left with little alternatve conclusions.

So far: false numbers; false statements re lack of border controls; false assessment of impact on wages. Would be very happy to read some proper reasons as xenophobia is very nasty and would love to be proved wrong.

jambalaya
In particular allowing VISA free travel to 75m Turks at this time is like storing gasoline next to the fire we are trying to extinguish.

YAWN

The EU would aim to lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens by June 2016 ([b]but this would not apply to the UK[/b]). The payment of €3bn (£2.4bn) to Turkey would be sped up, and preparations would be made for opening the next stage of talks on EU membership for Turkey.
All of this is complicated. [b]For visa liberalisation to happen, Turkey has to meet 72 benchmarks[/b] on everything from biometric passports to judicial cooperation.

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35832035 ]BBC[/url]

YAWN

Quelle surpise......

Jamba in "not telling the full story caught with his pants down hand in the cookie jar shocker....."

[img] [/img]

YAWN because I quoted directly the worlds of an ex head of MI6 on a matter of security ? @Lifer you, supported by @MrLeb are so desperate to score petty points you have yourselves been both been caught with your pants well and truly around your ankles

Here is the full speech. Last 90 seconds if you cannot listed to the whole 7:45

So the BBC is wrong is it?

I'm not scoring petty points Jamba - I'm just pointing out your lies which is the proper thing to do!

Talk the truth, for a change, you might you'll get a very different response!

Answer one simple Q for me:

Is that BBC article a fallacy? Y or N.

If Y - show me/us the FACTS which confirm so.

The OPINION of the ex-head of MI6 does not constitute FACT.

I repeat OPINIONS proposed as FACT, ARE NOT FACT..

The first line of that speech opens with "It is my take...." Ie his OPINION, not FACT.

We will not be faced with unbridled Turkish immigration - that is a FACT, if you read the BBC article you'd know that & understand why your fears are somewhat over the top..

I'm not going to go into why we won't face such mass immigration as its all stated quite clearly in the BBC article.

They may one day join the EU but they have a very long way to go before that is any kind of certainty.

So turkey doesn't have to meet the benchmarks?

I heard a few days ago on the BBC that Turkish membership of the EU is realistically 20 years away at least. They have to jump through a series of hoops and meet many criteria. It has taken a few years just to meet one target relating to science research and funding.

Start with the job centre ? Very simplistic I know but I have personally witnessed someone decline to even apply for a job because "it's not worth the bother luv". 

athgray - Member
I heard a few days ago on the BBC that Turkish membership of the EU is realistically 20 years away at least. They have to jump through a series of hoops and meet many criteria. It has taken a few years just to meet one target relating to science research and funding.

Shhh now, all 72million are currently walking across Europe now like a giant NHS eating locust.

MrLeb where exactly did I lie in quoting the ex head of MI6 ? Where did I say we would be facing unbridled immigration from Turkey ? You are inventing stuff so that you can get even more wound up.

So turkey doesn't have to meet the benchmarks?

@athgray Turkey's membership application was indeed put on hold a few years ago, however Erdogan is laying the EU like a fiddle over the migrant crises and has made it's EU application being reconsidered/reopened a condition of playing ball.

@duckman, as above I am just quoting one very well informed person's opinion

The Greek debt crises shows how good the EU is at enforcing rules, the ECB and the EU turned a blind eye to Greece's borrowing excess which was pretty obvious to many.

My view is [s]it will be[/s] fudged,

Visa free travel for Turks isn't the same as immigration from Turkey, is it? Or did I miss something?

molgrips - Member
Visa free travel for Turks isn't the same as immigration from Turkey, is it? Or did I miss something?

It is the start of the process of letting them join EU if Turkey can hold EU to ransom a bit more longer. Then Central Asia will join in too as they are related and if I were from Central Asia I would start to invest in a Turkish passport now. Not difficult to buy one if they speak almost the same language.

MrLeb where exactly did I lie in quoting the ex head of MI6 ? Where did I say we would be facing unbridled immigration from Turkey ? You are inventing stuff so that you can get even more wound up.

True, you didn't lie - my fault, I apologise.

You were just economical with the truth.

Again.

Is Turkey placing returned people in camps or sending them home to their country of origin?
If immigrants and refugees are still in Turkey, surely Turkish blackmail will be innefective.

It is as if Europe has handed Turkey a bomb and locked it outside the house, whilst Turkey shouts at the doorstep "let me in with this bomb, or I will pass it through the letterbox!"

. Then Central Asia will join in too as they are related and if I were from Central Asia I would start to invest in a Turkish passport now. Not difficult to buy one if they speak almost the same language.

This is nonsense. What are you saying, if we let Turkey in everyone in the Arab world will be claiming Turkish citizenship because they are all pretty much the same? This is just ill conceived and ignorant scare mongering.

True, you didn't lie - my fault, I apologise.

You were just economical with the truth.

Again.

@molgrips no its not the same. Leave campaign is certainly flagging up the visa free travel and the amount of money the EU (therefore the UK) is sending Turkey's way and the fact its very much "on the list" of potential joiners.

so not having to comply with all the legislation will be hugely liberating

If we can control our immigration we will be definition be able to take the best candidates for any job,

Not if you are the working class person who's wages are being undermined.

Very simplistic I know but I have personally witnessed someone decline to even apply for a job because "it's not worth the bother luv".

Racist? No idea. Hope not as that is worse than xenophobic. But given that we have been presented with no (non-falsifiable) arguments then one is left with little alternatve conclusions.

So far: false numbers; false statements re lack of border controls; false assessment of impact on wages. Would be very happy to read some proper reasons as xenophobia is very nasty and would love to be proved wrong.

This is worth repeating - never thought i would do that- but he has succinctly demolished what you think is an argument with simple facts and he is correct its just xenophobic sabre rattling gibberish with no basis in fact

For you to warble on about the working classes - I seem to have missed you ever GAS about them before on here - is a priceless piece of re engineering that BOris "protect our NHS" would admire.

Literally shameless.

. If we can control our immigration we will be definition be able to take the best candidates for any job, so there is a quality uptick in the labour force for example. Leaving the EU will take off the downward pressure on wages allowing them to stabilise and as the economy grows more vibrantly as we interact with faster growing economies outside the EU and UK business is not bound by irrelevant EU legislation wages can rise, that's a Brexiter's scenario.
@kelvin we can see in France and Spain the impact of labour regulation - 25% youth unemployment. That's why Hollande is trying to reform it, he's even pushing through without asking Parliament via a special Presidential decree

So a quick q&a
Is the problem in France due to uncontrolled migration?
What eu labour laws are causing the problem?
Are they laws the UK has too?
Could it perhaps be an economic problem and not the fault of the eu?

athgray - Member

Then Central Asia will join in too as they are related and if I were from Central Asia I would start to invest in a Turkish passport now. Not difficult to buy one if they speak almost the same language.

This is nonsense. What are you saying, if we let Turkey in everyone in the Arab world will be claiming Turkish citizenship because they are all pretty much the same? This is just ill conceived and ignorant scare mongering.

Crikey ... Turks are Not Arabs vice versa.

Many in Central Asia has already gone to Turkey for various reasons. Seeking asylum or before joining the fight in middle east.

They have common heritage because they are Turkic with link back to their mongol ancestors.

With Turkey wanting more influence in Central Asia they would welcome their long lost cousins with open arms then let them move on to where ever they prefer.

Here a map.

[img] [/img]

Jamba is it just me or did you completely miss mi6 guy saying that you can not stem an irresistible tide of migration with border controls. So i'm pretty baffled by your line of argument that turkey will stem the tide of migration, with border controls?

Leaving the EU will take off the downward pressure on wages allowing them to stabilise and as the economy grows more vibrantly as we interact with faster growing economies outside the EU

Dealing more with India and China will take off downward pressure on wages? Yeah, right!

[img] [/img]

Not sure if you were looking for a call centre picture, but that is actually a LAN party from about 10 years ago ^^

I was thinking that - what is the relevance of the photo to the point or the debate. Has the Doc gone rogue and flipped to the other side?

I was thinking that - what is the relevance of the photo to the point or the debate. Has the Doc gone rogue and flipped to the other side?

The point is that these are the people(*) that we will be competing with for low-paid work if we drop EU employment protection and interact more closely with India. Does that seem like a victory for the Working Man?

I'm not really on a side here - I will vote IN, but I will hold my nose doing so essentially for the reasons given in Paul Mason's article.

(*Apparently they aren't - the pic was taken from a site where it was represented as being of a call centre. Luckily the local experts are here to put me right 🙂 )

Whats that Farage is awake...

There could be unstoppable demand for [s]a re-run of the EU referendum if Remains wins by a narrow margin on 23 June,[/s] UKIP leader Nigel Farage [s]has said.[/s]
Mr Farage said he believed [s]the Leave campaign were on course for victory.
But[/s] he [s]said there[/s] would be [s]resentment, particularly[/s] in the Conservative Party, [s]if not, with claims the referendum will not have been a fair contest.[/s]
Leave campaigners are angry [s]at the government for spending £9m on pro-EU leaflets sent to every UK home.[/s]

"We definitely won't lose but if we do we'll do it again until we don't". FRO Nigel.

i wonder how he'd feel about a re-run if the 'Leave' vote won...?

(i'll assume that would be a completely different matter, the British people have spoken, etc.)

Like Scotland - it depends on the answer. Although tbf the European's have also been playing the vote til will win card too.

The point is that these are the people(*) that we will be competing with for low-paid work if we drop EU employment protection and interact more closely with India. Does that seem like a victory for the Working Man?

That's got to be a resounding, if not deafening, NO.