[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

In. Mostly 'cos of holidays.

You can slice the economics either way to suit your perspective, regardless the UK economy would survive and continue much of a muchness. A bit like the Scots independence thing this really an emotional/political decision and I think there's more linking us than dividing us.

Can't trust the EU to best represent the UK's interests, can't trust our politicians with free rein over our rights.

I'm loath to admit it (it does feel like my arm is being twisted) but we seem to be reliant upon these symbiotic opposing forces to create some kind of balance in this complicated mess, inevitably compromised as it will be. Another dog shit sandwich isn't it 😐

Funny how no one talks about the social, cultural, and keeping the peace aspect of it. Maybe it's taken for granted now but it wasn't that long ago that Europe was killing millions of it's citizens in massive wars. Ironic really that it's greatest success is now not even considered as one of it's benefits.

'you'd be an idiot to vote out' turn of phrase (seen quite a lot on here, by the way..).

I extended the discussion however to make a point that in the long term this may not be as disastrous as many are making out.

I think if you could poll people (maybe 20 years ago) on whether or not they wanted the EU to develop to this position then the vote would be very different.

I'm split but the worry is that voting will be driven by Daily Mail, Mirror and Sun headlines which means it will turn into a shambles. In some ways it's a shame Dave is trying to dress up his absolute failure in the way that he is. I suspect that will drive more to vote out than to understand the facts and make a more informed decision.

For those voting they want out because of the immigration aspect should consider that Norway, not a member of the EU, has 7.38 EU migrants per 1,000 population. Switzerland, also not a member but has access to EU markets, has 11.33 migrants per 1,000. The UK currently only has 2.48 migrants per 1,000. Doesn't really stack up with how the papers would lead you to believe does it?

For whoever it was that was asking timescale; who knows, it could be 20 years. We'd have to adapt most of our legislation to remove EU directives and EU treaties with the rest of the world would cease to apply to the UK. We would have to negotiate the future of the 2 million brits who live in the EU. WTO rules state we have no right of access to EU markets so that would have to be negotiated and we would have to make significant payments as Norway and Switzerland do.

Lastly I suspect we'd also get a short/long term sterling crisis if we leave which would make everyone's enduro 'sled' more expensive.

I think that the biggest clue comes form the fact that so many of the people who are saying "out" would be a disaster are the same people who, a few years ago, were telling us that it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro...

Isn't that NATO though and the focus on the common enemy of the USSR. Remember Germany wasn't allowed an army operating outside its borders and still has a US and UK military presence. The EU didn't stop the Yugoslavia crisis.

Klunk - Member

I found the report r4 did on Norway revealing, the infamous fax machine and the cost for them to deal with the EU, 7th largest contributor and no sway/vote/influence on how it's run and they still have to implement a lot of the directives... That'll go down like a lead balloon with the kippers if that's the result.

I just listened to the Radio 4 program that Klunk linked to on page 2. Very interesting from both sides of the argment and just shows it's not a cut-and-dried decision either way really. Obviously the UK is not the same as Norway and the issues would be different here.

I think if we stay in we will tend to just bumble along as we have done in the EU thus far which would be a mistake. Coming out would be a very interesting proposition though.

Lastly I suspect we'd also get a short/long term sterling crisis if we leave which would make everyone's enduro 'sled' more expensive.

This is one of the most interesting aspects, there is the immediate effect and then the long term. It could be good for the likes of Orange bikes and Jaguar-LandRover.

Actually Jaguar Land Rover sales figures by number of vehicles are interesting in terms of this debate, for the year of 2014 they broke down as the following:

China 122k
Overseas 96.5k
Europe 86.3k
UK 82.8k
USA 75k

A girl I know went to stay in Spain for a year only to hate the place like plague after a year, because the people there treated her (British) like "money printing machine".

I think that the biggest clue comes form the fact that so many of the people who are saying "out" would be a disaster are the same people who, a few years ago, were telling us that it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro...

bowglie - Member
The Japanese companies manufacture here to get around EU quotas, so they're not going to hang around if the UK leaves the EU.

Toyoda has said that Toyota will stay regardless.

Ninfan its not helpful to build up straw men then attack them with made up events that never happened

I dont think anyone is really saying it would be a disaster - though this may hinge on the exact meaning of the word disaster- just that it would be worse and have some major implications in the short to medium term.
Take the cars example above They will stay initially but they are less likely to invest in the future and more likely to withdraw if we leave the EU. Not a disaster but hardly good news.

What I do find interesting is that many of the anti EU are also very vocal in being pro the UK union

The very arguments they used then are now being ignored in this one 😉

[quote=Junkyard ]What I do find interesting is that many of the anti EU are also very vocal in being pro the UK union
The very arguments they used then are now being ignored in this one

and vice versa 😉

POssibly/probably

Interesting isnt it how we can reverse roles/arguments/principles and just make base emotive decisions about freedom 😉

TBH i was pro Scottish as i would vote for anything that made a tory govt largely impossible but I was not a passionate indy

On this i was pro the EU but ernie made a good point once that moved me to uncertain. Either way it wont be a massive endorsement whichever way i vote though stay is probably the more likely - mainly as it would annoy farage and loads of others i have no time nor respect for.

I think it's typical of Britain's view of its own membership of the EU that we chose now to have an existential membership crisis.
The EU is currently dealing with major, once in a generation problems; the migrant crisis, the instability of the world economy, Greece and an increasingly belligerent Russia.
We sit here on our high horse criticising the EU for struggling to solve some of these incredibly difficult problems whilst doing nothing to help them.
You can almost imagine the atmosphere in the Council of Europe summit when all the leaders are debating all the above problems, then Call me Dave puts his hand up and says,
"Can I talk about an important issue?"
"Go on", says Donald Tusk.
"I really need to get an agreement here about all those EU citizens coming to the UK, working, paying tax and NI, then claiming the tax credits they're entitled to, it has to stop."
"Sorry, Dave, but can't this wait, we do have a few more important things to discus."
"No." Squeaks Dave, "if I don't go back to London with an agreement on this, then the UK may be forced to leave the EU, that's how seriously we take tax credits."
If the UK isn't willing to take part in the EU properly, it should leave it.

The eu was a nice idea but it hasn't worked, so OUT as there's no point flogging a dead horse.

This is all academic though as the referendum will be fixed to get whatever result the government wants

Rubbish - the government is split!

In, I deal with a lot of EU driven policy and legislation through work. The problems don't usually stem from the EU but the way we in the UK elect to implement it.

I've not seen good evidence that persuades me that out is better. The arguments seem to be limited to eugh foreigners and politicians.

Greece and an increasingly belligerent Russia.

The EU is by no means blameless for either of these situations

I'm not suggesting that the EU is blameless in any of these situations, that wasn't the point I was trying to make...

We sit here on our high horse criticising the EU for struggling to solve some of these incredibly difficult problems whilst doing nothing to help them.

Not strictly true we pledged £2.3 billion and have ~ 3 ships in the med picking people up.

I'd argue there hasn't been a coordinated EU response, we have Germany doing one thing and others doing something else. In fact the lack of joined up thinking is making a big problem worse.

.

This is all academic though as the referendum will be fixed to get whatever result the government wants

Michael Portillo on "This Week" reckoned that people in the know say that if the vote was an "out" vote, the establishment would drag its heels, perhaps have a second vote and generally not leave.

I can see why. How much legislation/treaty agreements would need to be rewritten, and how many civil servants and lawers are available to do it?

As for my personal opinion, I haven't got a Scooby.

As for my personal opinion, I haven't got a Scooby. My hopes that there would be an impartial layman's explanation of the issues published by the civil service to inform voters aint gonna happen.

I think all the issues are far too complex for anyone to really understand and predict. I just read this BBC article which seems reasonably balanced but really am still none the wiser.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32793642

I think it will come down to a few emotive issues like immigration for instance which a lot of people in the street have a knee-jerk reaction to without really understanding the pros and cons. A bit like the General Election then when people vote for "that nice Mr. Blair" for instance without any inkling what he stands for.

mrwhyte - Member

Do people seriously think we could go it alone and have the same negotiating power as the EU? they are the single biggest trading bloc in the world, with huge purchasing power.

Drivel; we are still the 5th largest economy by GDP in the world, the EU will not want to loose their share of our business. There are far smaller nations going it alone, quite happily: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29

dragon - Member

We sit here on our high horse criticising the EU for struggling to solve some of these incredibly difficult problems whilst doing nothing to help them.

Not strictly true we pledged £2.3 billion and have ~ 3 ships in the med picking people up.

I'd argue there hasn't been a coordinated EU response, we have Germany doing one thing and others doing something else. In fact the lack of joined up thinking is making a big problem worse.

we are still the 5th largest economy by GDP in the world, the EU will not want to loose their share of our business.

Clearly they are larger so that means they can much easier lose our trade than they ours.
Why do people think they will be gutted to see us go and that we have the stronger negotiating hand? Its madness to think this.

we know we will survive - no one is suggesting we will fold as a country the question is , economically, is it to our advantage to be in the EU or out of it.

I just also read that the wording of the question is very important. Apparently it's looking like something like the following:-

"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

I wonder how many people will answer "Yes"? 😳

I'm not suggesting that the EU is blameless in any of these situations, that wasn't the point I was trying to make...

Forza, source for that question is?

...and which EU is under discussion, the old one or the future one?

teamhurtmore - Member

...and which EU is under discussion, the old one or the future one?

That's true, but my meaning was more to do with the old EU without fiscal/political union or the future one with it?

piemonster - Member

Forza, source for that question is?

7th paragraph

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887

If the UK isn't willing to take part in the EU properly, it should leave it.

Doe that go for everyone - theres plenty of EU countries who floit and ignore the rules and just get away with it. If We were had the same attitude nobody would be considering leaving.

Much quicker to list the countries that follow/have ever followed the rules!

Forza, ta very much

Why do people think they will be gutted to see us go and that we have the stronger negotiating hand?

only 8 of the 28 EU nations are net financial contributors to the EU budget, the UK is the third biggest one.

thats a pretty strong negotiating hand.

thats a pretty strong negotiating hand.

konabunny - Member
I think that the biggest clue comes form the fact that so many of the people who are saying "out" would be a disaster are the same people who, a few years ago, were telling us that it would be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro...

Who specifically are you talking about?

The CBI, for one, I understand.

Yep, add on Mandelson, Clarke, Blair etc.

My vote is out, last time the country had one (or so I am led to believe) was the mid 70's and that was a vote for the common market agreement, europe has changed beyond recognition and we are still here on a 70's vote. I am probably wrong and will no doubt get hained for my view but our country poors millions into europe every single day, our way of life is goverend more and more by a distant organisation that will never be remotely in touch with our daily lives and we continuosly have it shoveled down our throats rules from europe. I am British and proud I am not a European!

I'd argue there hasn't been a coordinated EU response, we have Germany doing one thing and others doing something else. In fact the lack of joined up thinking is making a big problem worse.

What we have is Germany, whether wisely or not (probably for another debate), trying to "do its bit" to help the migrant crisis. Whether you agree with Germany's actions doesn't alter the fact that they are clearly not acting entirely in their own national interest. Every part of the UK's relationship with the EU is judged on how it affects our own self interest. This is not a helpful attitude for a member of the EU to have, as it contributes greatly to the continued lack of "joined up thinking".
I'm not suggesting other EU nations aren't behaving in the same way, I'm suggesting that the EU has become about more than a simple cost-benefit analysis. If we aren't prepared to behave in a more co-operative, assistive manner with a better Europe as our collective goal, there's no point being in the EU.

theres plenty of EU countries who floit and ignore the rules and just get away with it. If We were had the same attitude nobody would be considering leaving.

the UK is the third biggest one[net contributor].

thats a pretty strong negotiating hand.

Yes they will be bending over backwards to make sure we get exactly what we want in that negotiation
😆

Its gives us some negotiating at this point, when still in, but not when we leave For example I doubt the EU would be doing this for one of the smaller nations but there is only so far they will go to try and keep us in the club

Once we do leave they will be scorned and respond in the usual way scorned folk do.

its still madness to think we have a great negotiating position v them when leaving. Its as weak a hand as one can have

We still want to trade but we dont want to pay. Its never ever going to happen like that ever. Look how little he got when we had the threat of money and they were trying to keep us.

pedant mode on:

[i]as a british citizen by a quirk of geography you are also a european, as Britain is technically within the boundaries of western europe, our culture is european in terms of historical interaction, art, music, religion etc.etc.[/i]

Pedant mode off:

However what you want to call yourself is entirely your choice of course.

Like a quite large number of people in this country I would definitely call myself British with European roots of which I am proud.

Of my eight great-grandparents who were born in the last two decades of the 19th century, four were born in England, two were born in Italy, one in Ireland ( although when he was born, Cork was part of the united kingdom) and one in Germany.

edit:
I should of course have said In, but not just because of the above