give Plan B a go
and that being....?
WTF can they debate? I know this is Xmas time, but do we need more pantos?
Its a NEGOTIATION between two sides - do people really think that we* agree a nice list of must-haves and noce-to-haves and give it to our friends to ratify?
Have we suspended all reality now? Next thins we will be pretending to scrutinise while respecting the original timetable. But no one would be silly enough to say that surely - goes off to check news website.... 😯
*we ie parties who themselves cannot agree!!
Its a very strange world when we have to rely on D Davis of all people to say something sensible
He added: "This is a negotiation; it's not a policy statement. And, therefore, where you are aiming for may not be the exact place you end up."
Its a NEGOTIATION between two sides - do people really think that we* agree a nice list of must-haves and noce-to-haves and give it to our friends to ratify?
THM it's also the UK's process and democracy.
As far as a negotiation it's more like defusing a bomb with a timer and 5 remote detonators, or worse Bullys Prize Board.
As far as debate what I would like to see is Parliament presented with facts and analysis, at least of the worst case Hard Brexit and the impact that would have on the UK, an acceptance of the mutually exclusives (free trade without free movement) etc.
As was always the case the referendum which went to a very slim margin was to advise parliament of the next steps. The can take the advice, look at the outlook and situations and then take the next step. What people are asking for is that the UK follows it's laws and respects the process.
He added: "This is a negotiation; it's not a policy statement. And, therefore, where you are aiming for may not be the exact place you end up."
Which is useful as with most of these negotiations we negotiate and then ratify the outcome, this one works differently. It's an all in hand of poker and the negotiating team need to have the backing of parliamnet before putting the house on what they think is a good hand.
Thing is in this "negotiation" we have nothing to offer. We are beggars. What the 3 clowns have said they want is not on the table. the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
We don't have a poker hand and the EU know it. Its a 7 and a 3 against a pair of queens!
THM it's also the UK's process and democracy.
Yes and we have a result of a democratic process.
Jambas seems to be correct on this issue at least. We have just had a vote that commits us to an A50 timetable. Progress (albeit down a bad path)
Now for the 16 word bill!
Thing is in this "negotiation" we have nothing to offer.
No really.
Mikesmith - hard exit is not the worst case - its the only thing that can happen - or stay in on the same terms as now. Even the very unlikely EEA option means paying the same in, obeying most of the same rules and accepting free movement of people ie no change
Yes and we have a result of a democratic process.
The first part of it. Parmimanent was always due to have the final say.
Jambas seems to be correct on this issue at least. We have just had a vote that commits us to an A50 timetable. Progress (albeit down a bad path)
To a point but the SC is very likely to show that to declare A50 the government needs a plan & that plan could form the basis of a bill to decalre A50
Now for the 16 word bill!
Which I would expect to be voted down unless a decent plan was put forward first.
The EU has already stated quite clearly that some of the stuff that the UK supposidly wants is not available without conceeding on others. The UK's plan is non existent and based on blind optimism and wishful thinking. If that is all they are taking forward (threats of Prosecco wars etc.) then it is the job of Parliament to call a halt to the proceedings.
Interesting, so the gov puts forward a very narrow bill and Parliament votes it down right through the deadline they have just agreed. Today has been worthwhile then. Bloody politicians.... 😀
To a point but the SC is very likely to show that to declare A50 the government needs a plan & that plan could form the basis of a bill to decalre A50
I very much doubt this is what the SC is opining on
Without the actions of HM Opposition represented by Gina Miller the SC is unlikely to have been involved at all, so it is not true to claim that P was going to have the final say.
It might be me being a bit thick but surely the common sense approach would be for the Tory Government to provide guidance on what they are trying to achieve then get a vote of confidence from parliament (as decreed by the judges or enemies of the people) then go out and see what the EU offers (don't for one moment think this is negotiation I sell stuff for a living and know what elements are required for a negotiation) bring back the offer and put it to a vote in parliament.
Trying to achieve? A withdrawal from the EU. What's difficult about that?
The people got it, why can't MPs?
It would have always required a bill of some sort just as it was expected to be a remain vote nobody bothered to check. The opposition is in dissaray as this is not a party lines issue, the government is also split but I'd not expect to see much tory action on it until the feel it's now or never - no point rocking the boat early. I probably phrased the SC part a bit off, it's likely that they will agree that parliament needs to vote/approve/be consulted BEFORE passing A50. The goverment has just commited to putting a plan forward before an A50 bill.
That plan will directly influence the outcome of any vote. After the hardcore leave there are a lot who sway towards but will not be happy granting the 3 idiots a blank chequebook especially with Borris's unique style of negotiations. JC has zero chance of whipping his party on the issue and having the Lib Dems & SNP to stand with may temp a few over quite easily.
Just remember (old stat but still relevant)
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If it went along party lines the government has a working majority of 13, thats a small target if you want to take something down especially given the traditional tory splits on Europe. As much as many saw Brexit and Trump as unimaginable, the same could be said of MP's voting with their beliefs not the referendum.
I have had multiple conversations with rabid Brexiteers who said they assumed we would still be able to trade on a level playing field post Brexit including access to the single market?
Now is this a line they have been fed to get their exit vote or is it simply an assumption?
Also THM not all the people got it in all the same way
Actually who do you think a vote of no confidence would suit most!
In hindsight your,opening comment is correct but without Ms Miller there is a strong chance that the gov would have got away with it. what evidence was there to the contrary?
How silly of them
Because they have swallowed the arrogance fed to them that they need us more than we need them.
As for the WTO that Jambalaya opines to then we will have zero influence there as we are not part of the group that sets policy and direction of which one of which is the EU and which, oh hang on......
There appears to be a fair amount of cut your nose off to spite your face approach to Brexit, not sure we can afford to chuck our teddies out of the pram and **** off into the sunset selling chutney to India. I will once again labour the point- WHAT DO WE HAVE THAT AMERICA INDIA CHINA AUSTRALIA want to pay top dollar for? (That they already don't own?) Trade deals are imaterial if you don't have a product or service with "demand" 10% drop in GDP is catastrophic for the UK
In hindsight your,opening comment is correct but without Ms Miller there is a strong chance that the gov would have got away with it. what evidence was there to the contrary?
TBH no idea and I don't really care, so long as somebody is there to hold the government to account then thats enough. This one is a long way from done and I'd have to say the conclusion is less that certain while I understand your desire to end the uncertainty this may be the case where it needs to run it's course and have one final vote by parliament. If it's voted down then UKIP can rant and rave if it's leave then good luck to the UK, those
"The three main groups; affluent Euroskeptics, older working class and a smaller group of economically disadvantaged, anti immigration voters"
will have got what they wanted and the rest will be expected to fix it.
Recent reports that the the other member states still have differences but are united in making sure that over Brexit they come away with the best deal they can as they hold all the cards should be warning enough. There will be a price to pay for everything the UK wants - it's not being vindictive, it's not to teach the UK a lesson it's because that is what happens when the losing side negotiates.
Well I think its free trade with these guys then
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How can it be voted down, they have agreed the timetable. It's going to happen.
Or that could just be the Rees Mogg family at home.
Old man since the first name on your list is our biggest export market, is the answer quite a lot?
teamhurtmore - Member
How can it be voted down, they have agreed the timetable. It's going to happen.
They have agreed a timetable, the SC will ensure that a vote is required, many things have a timetable that never happen as conditions and ideas change. The timetable is important as it outlines what the government needs to do before parliament will vote on an A50 bill and when they plan to do it.
Brexiters, have a look at what Britain's imports and exports are made up of. [url= http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top-UK-exports.html ]Imports and exports.[/url]
Now consider the companies within those sectors that are doing the importing and exporting. Now consider who owns those companies, the board members pension funds etc. And the partners of those companies.
You'll reach the conclusion that the people who will make decisions after Brexit very often aren't British and have no incietive to stay in the UK other than that it is a cheap manufacturing base with low taxes [b]within the European Union with access to its markets[/b]
They have agreed a timetable, the SC will ensure that a vote is required,
True
many things have a timetable that never happen as conditions and ideas change.
True, but what is the relevance here? Or is this part of the "delay/frustrate and we can eventually ignore" strategy?
The timetable is important as it outlines what the government needs to do before parliament will vote on an A50 bill and when they plan to do it.
Are you sure? Can't see what it outlines other than some vague notion of presenting something. If there are any winners (?) last night, it was the Gov and the Brexshiteers. They got a much better result than the obstructers.
Indeed edukator - you forgot the lowest level of worker protection in the EU as well. This is how we have attracted inward investment. This will now stop. No incentive for multinationals to have a manufacturing presence in thee UK after we leave
"If there are any winners (?) last night, it was the Gov"
The majority of the Govt, including the PM are remainers.
So any credible impediments and/or credible excuses to delay are welcome to them.
Sure - the government won after having to agree to do something they said they never would!
*sings*
You spin me right round baby right round...............
OOB, so we are going for the delay and obstruct model of obstruction after all. Last night was nothing more than an opposition botch. You only have to look at which side had smiles in their faces to understand.
Indeed edukator - you forgot the lowest level of worker protection in the EU as well. This is how we have attracted inward investment. This will now stop. No incentive for multinationals to have a manufacturing presence in thee UK after we leave
PSA: fact-based alternative explanations are available
Its a NEGOTIATION between two sides - do people really think that we* agree a nice list of must-haves and nice-to-haves and give it to our friends to ratify?
"OOB, so we are going for the delay and obstruct model of obstruction after all."
No doubt, unless you think Brexit will be a success and a vote winner.
How can it be voted down, they have agreed the timetable
And those that vote it down will claim that the government is undermining the timetable by not respecting parliament and giving them something that they can reasonably approve.
Meanwhile the government will claim that the opposition to their bill is ignoring the timetable when really the referendum gave them carte blanche to do what they like and parliament should sign up to that.
The arguments will go along the lines of "the people voted for Brexit" "but not on any terms or at any cost" etc etc. Everyone playing a defender of democracy.
Both sides have easy ways to make a mess of this while also claiming the moral high ground. That, more than the fact of Brexit itself, is what will make this a complete clusterf***.
NEGOTIATION
"OOB, so we are going for the delay and obstruct model of obstruction after all."No doubt, unless you think Brexit will be a success and a vote winner.
At least that's honest (in one sense)
It is worth listening to Dominic Greave on Today this morning as to the meaning and effect of last night's motion - a parliamentary opinion pole and nothing more.
And those that vote it down will claim that the government is undermining the timetable by not respecting parliament and giving them something that they can reasonably approve.Meanwhile the government will claim that the opposition to their bill is ignoring the timetable when really the referendum gave them carte blanche to do what they like and parliament should sign up to that.
The arguments will go along the lines of "the people voted for Brexit" "but not on any terms or at any cost" etc etc. Everyone playing a defender of democracy.
Both sides have easy ways to make a mess of this while also claiming the moral high ground. That is what will [s]make this a complete clusterf***[/s] [b]prevent anything too silly happening.[/b]
Yup, something like that.
Neuberger's comments were interesting too - especially given his role.
What will happen? A50 will be triggered by end 1Q17.
Newsnight discussion last night seemed pretty clear, it's done and it appears extremely unlikely A50 could be stalled now. Stephen Kinnock was in agreement and pretty clear Labour would not attempt to block it (70% of Labour MPs sit in constituencies which voted Leave). The vote was a massive win for the Government in all respects and at the end of the day was achieved very easily.
and at the end of the day was achieved very easily.
by Gina Miller 😉
Jamba - how was it a massive win to be pushed into doing something May said they would not do and would be very damaging - and pushed into it by a backbench rebellion?
Nobody disputes that Article 50 won't be triggered, and probably on time.
The hard work will start once it is triggered.
Could have sworn that this was a Labour motion, plus on what side was the biggest backbench revolt?
The motion - with the all important amendment which scuppered the oppo (not Gina Miller this time, the pretend one)
That this House recognises that leaving the EU is the defining issue facing the UK; notes the resolution on parliamentary scrutiny of the UK leaving the EU agreed by the House on 12 October 2016; recognises that it is Parliament’s responsibility to properly scrutinise the Government while respecting the decision of the British people to leave the European Union; confirms that there should be no disclosure of material that could be reasonably judged to damage the UK in any negotiations to depart from the European Union after Article 50 has been triggered; and calls on the Prime Minister to commit to publishing the Government’s plan for leaving the EU before Article 50 is invoked, consistently with the principles agreed without division by this House on 12 October; recognises that this House should respect the wishes of the United Kingdom as expressed in the referendum on 23 June; [b]and further calls on the Government to invoke Article 50 by 31 March 2017.[/b]
Jambas, newsnight was interesting and Kinnock was pretty clear agreed. All we saw was a total waste of time (as Neuberger hinted at) with the Brexsiteers having the upper hand. But no real winners at all, other than the time for delaying and uncertainty now has limits which is a relief
The hard work will start once it is triggered.
Indeed the rest is just noise
From Laura K
[b]It sailed through.[/b]
For the first time, MPs have agreed in a vote that we will begin the process of leaving the EU by the end of March.
The government chief whip was seen with a massive grin after tonight's vote.
[b]Remember ministers' climbdown came with a clever kicker, persuading Labour to sign up to their timetable for triggering Article 50 without committing to very much in return - the vague promise of a plan that could be as detailed as the back of the proverbial fag packet.[/b]
There's grumpiness on the Labour benches at how it was handled - angry conversations taking place, sources suggest - a sense among some that the front bench allowed themselves to be hoodwinked by the government's cunning plan.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38244953
The Government set a trap and it was triggered with a massive majority. The Government will provide broadbrush details, as Boris said on Marr if you read what the Government has said there is a lot of information there. We want control of our laws, borders and freedom to do trade deals. That means no single market and no customs union. The Govt will lay out what it's offereing, eg free trade on a list of sectors and expect that in return, EU citizens can remain if EU grants the same etc
THE single market is the European Union, they've created a political structure around that concept and we are leaving the EU to end our membership of that political project.
