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Doesn't surprise me at all
Well, it should, because it didn't happen.
Exit polls look awful for LePen&Co as well.
[quote=teethgrinder ]Link...?
https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/singletrack-world-forum-e/cpgdlmbifgbhcoigdoeoooakijdionop is what I'm using, though only works on Chrome. I also did the latest updates, and open to suggestions (though I've kind of been working on the next update for the last two years, so it may not be implemented quickly!)
I can assure any interested parties that this Chrome add-on has increased my enjoyment of this forum by at least 80%.
I will happily buy whoever wrote it a pint or three.
Exit polls look awful for LePen&Co as well.
8 seats.
What was jamba predicting back when he told us France would lurch to the right?
Hang in, it wasn't 150 was it?
Well, I for one am delighted that the Front National is on the back foot. Long may it stay that way.
Cheers!
[quote=Junkyard ]you need to then download deluge to make it work - no idea why
I have to admit I have no idea what deluge is, and fairly sure I don't have it installed - though I am usually running a dev version of the extension (really should check what the difference is to the current release version) I'm sure the release version also works.
[quote=PJM1974 ]I will happily buy whoever wrote it a pint or three.
See my message above 😉 I'd take a pint off you as I've only done updates, were it not that I've not touched the block user feature - I know who did write it, but I don't think he's on here very often (and his user name is disconcertingly similar to the user who usually prompts its installation!): http://singletrackworld.com/forum/profile/chvck
Back on topic, Labour have mirrored May and her team's "cake and eat it" approach so as not to leave any clear water between the two main parties on Brexit during the General Election, so they couldn't be accused of sliding away from the Leave process. Those hoping that the top two in the Labour Party will take a more sensible approach now the election is done, are probably deluding themselves; they will be aiming to be ready for another snap election.
So… once it's clear the options are "no cake at all" or "remain" (rather than the many fanciful contradictory options hoped for over the last 2 years)… and "the people" don't get given a clear choice between the two [b]real[/b] options… how well is democracy working then?
can you get stats to see who is the most blocked?
We know who it is , and his lead is unassailable, but to what degree.
Well, that's plus two in the last ten minutes.
Today the first dose of reality will arrive.
This past year reminds me very much of the community charge(poll Tax)
1. The community charge. Some people thought it was a good idea.
2. The tories at the time had a large majority.
3. The debates about the Community Charge went on. Some dispute it made
sense. Others warned of the dangers.
4. Some in House of Lords said it was a very bad idea. So the Tories
summoned to the Lords every "backwoodsman" hereditary peer in the land.
5. In what was one of the highest votes in parliamentary history the
government forced the Bill though the upper house. Timetable was kept.
6. It was first implemented in Scotland. Hugely unpopular. [b]Wiped out
Tories in Scotland for political generation.[/b] But the tories shrugged.
7. And then [b]the councils set the amounts to pay.[/b]
The Community Charge became the hated Poll Tax.
8. It did not matter if it was a clever idea. It did not matter if there
was a "mandate". It did not matter the government had kept to the
timetable.
9. [b]When people saw how much the idea was going to cost, they went
against it.[/b]
10. Similarly, the test for Brexit will not be whether mandate or timetable
has been kept, or "Eurocrats" defeated, or even if it is a good idea.
11. [b]The test for Brexit will be when people pay real costs for the
policy.[/b]
So, bearing in mind the points in bold above are warnings from history, if the tories attempt a hard brexit, and once the real costs of leaving and then being on the outside to businesses and individuals come into focus, which will happen very soon, it will spell the end of the tory party.
Sorry, one last OT:
[quote=Junkyard ]can you get stats to see who is the most blocked?
Interesting feature suggestion, but nope (and I suspect it would involve collecting data from users in a way they wouldn't like as everything happens at your end).
FWIW I never used the blocking feature as I disagreed with it on principle and reasoned I could just ignore posts, but I recently started and it's very refreshing!
[quote=El-bent ]11. The test for Brexit will be when people pay real costs for the policy.
The trouble is not only will that come too late to make a difference, but check out interviews of Brexit supporters, most seem to consider the cost to be worth paying to "take back control" and "stop those bloody furriners".
The trouble is not only will that come too late to make a difference, but check out interviews of Brexit supporters,
I understand that brexit supporters will attempt to achieve their aims at any cost to everyone else, they have lived in a dream land for the past year. From today reality comes calling.
They are sitting on a time bomb, and its about to go off.
We're in uncharted waters for sure. However, we've a Prime Minister who continues to damage her own standing with her conduct post Grenfell and who has made several strategic blunders in her negotiations with the DUP and has led a disastrous campaign - [url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-leadership-challenge-conservative-tory-leadership-election-2017-a7784226.html ]here.[/url]
The hard-right pro Brexit faction of the party cannot muster enough MPs to mount a serious challenge, despite the bluster in the Daily Heil, Telegraph et al. The 1922 Committee seem to have backed May for now, simply because the other options are utterly toxic and a leadership challenge on the eve of negotiations will ultimately damage the Conservatives' brand even further.
The lack of a commons majority will mean compromise. The voices calling for the whole shebang to be called off are growing louder.
can you get stats to see who is the most blocked
A sort of chexit poll!
FWIW I never used the blocking feature as I disagreed with it on principle and reasoned I could just ignore posts, but I recently started and it's very refreshing!
I downloaded it specifically to block chewkw
El-bent somewhere up thread there is a link to a piece with Nigel Lawson, the tories needed a big mandate because they would get hammered in the next election. They would loose seats, but if they started with enough they would remain in power.
Nothing about what is good for the electorate, just about power and keeping it
Judging by the main culprits responses I'm pretty sure they've blocked themselves!
Certainly would explain how they keep repeatedly posting the most ludicrous reality avoiding shite...
I just wish someone could do an iOS killfile. I used to think it was in unnecessary but it really has become extremely tedious of late.
Have we done this? Philip Hammond says that no deal (the most likely outcome IMO, and what Jamba wants) would be very bad indeed:
I note in passing that his odds of being next PM have gone from 14/1 to 7/1.
Memo to self: sell all remaining savings, ISAs, pensions, etc that are invested in the UK.
is hammond no longer part of jambys 85% vote for Hard brexit?
Just make the figures up then present them as factscan you get stats to see who is the most blocked?
[quote=nickjb ]Just make the figures up then present them as facts
Why didn't I think of that? It's not like you lot could have fact checked me if I'd claimed I had the stats here 8)
Seeing Gove being interviewed leaves me feeling bilious
I have to be the honest the longer this Brexit debacle goes on - the more & more ridiculous it & it's supported are becoming....
It's mind blowing that they are STILL blowing the trumpet for it....
wait three weeks then post what you like saying it is what you always said 😛Why didn't I think of that?
Nothing about what is good for the electorate, just about power and keeping it
Yes. When people who voted for brexit heard the line "taking back control", who did they think this "control" was going back to?
What it means is the burning of the terms and conditions of UK citizens, the tories despise anything remotely "social", their behavior towards the greenfell tower fire and on the run up to such an incident is conservative attitude personified. Where was the Government, either national or local at the beginning? It was the community and charities that took up the slack, in the same way that foodbanks are now normal, just how this Government wants it. I've said it before, this is a Government that hates Government, just only wants its power.
Anyone seen as using any social service such as the NHS, or living in social housing are seen as a waste of THEIR money.
Also, this may be a hot topic for some, but the phrase "Turkeys voting for Christmas" has been used a lot about those who voted for Brexit who stand to lose from it. While there are many factors in this such as de-industrialisation, generations left unemployed, and of course the "Foreigners are to blame" lines from the Brexit camp,(working out well now people are dying on the streets) Education has a large part to play. People down the order shall we say, despite there being a public education system which is also under attack from the Government, have been poorly educated and largely ignored once again by this Government.
See the pattern forming?
This is what taking back control is.
I note the extremely illiberal tone of the pro-Conservative media of late. The alarm bells really started to sound when the Daily Heil appeared to endorse Le Pen on their front page.
There seems to be a growing backlash against the illiberal media - organisations like Stop Funding Hate are making headway in ensuring that advertisers are aware of the negative publicity resulting from associating their brand to the far-right press. Breitbart has already seen advertisers leave in droves.
The Daily Express's headline last week which insinuated that the EU was to blame for Grenfell Tower was quite shocking, but I honestly don't think that many people were fooled.
and negotiations begin in earnest as the two Assange brothers finally get down to business
[img] 
[/img]
I'm predicting a technical knockout towards the end of the first round.
I'm predicting that the current "It is fine, of course our Euro-Buddies will give us the deal we want" message will evaporate within a couple of months.
At which point the govt. is faced with telling us the truth of the real costs of brexit, in so doing so committing a final act of political suicide.
Or they could do a smile and wave as long as they can and pretend that a Euro30bn exit fee, crappy trade deal, no collaboration on customs, education, food etc is 'all good', until in 2019 we discover the deal is in fact the Emperors New clothes....
You started this thread matt, your OP was:
I am torn between both.Part of me thinks more local decisions and less centralised is a Good Thing.
But part of me thinks it is working OK, and would it rock the boat lots to leave?
.
So where are you on the whole thing now?
[Sorry, this is not a "picking-on-you-by-finding-a-quote-from-ages-ago" post, just curious as to whether you're still torn?]
is there odds on what the divorce bill will be?
I cant see this going well tbh
May & davis have already pissed away 2 months out of the 20 or so we have to negotiate with their batshit election
assuming we get a 50bn divorce bill (+/-)
[url= https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/590488/PU2027_EU_finances_2016_print_final.pdf ]and we pay in 8bn or so a yr to the EU[/url]
thatll 2025 before we break even
[url= https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf ]after that even the softest of brexits costing 20bn a year[/url]
that means that we have to make up an [b]extra[/b] 6bn a year from our new global trade nirvana just to break even
https://www.ft.com/content/db2716aa-5026-11e7-a1f2-db19572361bb
Doesn't matter how much we are worse off, we will be in total control of those losses.
(and we will have WAY less foreigners)
[quote=kerley ]Doesn't matter how much we are worse off, we will be in total control of those losses.
(and we will have WAY less foreigners)
poe's law. i really cant tell if your serious or taking the piss.
So, "no deal is better than a bad deal". Is that profound statement true for everything?
e.g.
- No beer is better than bad beer.
- No breakfast is better than a bad breakfast
- No Brexit is better than a bad Brexit
- No PM is better than a bad PM.
So where are you on the whole thing now?
Quite quickly through the campaign I realised that we needed the stability and favour that being part of Europe brought us - that getting on with people and countries was important. I'm a firm pro-european now, and voted 'remain'.
we will be in total control of those losses.
No. No we won't.
At what point in the proceedings will Barnier get fed up with Davis's false joviiality and lamp him one?
unwise council estate lad who was in the SAS *
* technically the reservist/TA SAS but i bet he is pretty tough
Maybe so, but it doesn't make his silly giggling any less irritating.
So how long before we understand just how tiny this planet is, how much impact on a global level individual countries have and therefore how idiotic the idea of "country" actually is?
Where do the 50bn come from quoted on this thread. I've watched German news and the figure quoted was up to 100bn, confirmed by the Sud Deutsche Zeitung:
" die finanziellen Verpflichtungen Großbritanniens gegenüber der EU, die bis zu 100 Milliarden Euro betragen könnten"
Where do the 50bn come from quoted on this thread. I've watched German news and the figure quoted was up to 100bn, confirmed by the Sud Deutsche Zeitung:
I have seen various numbers from £50Bn to €100Bn, I guess the final number will be somewhere in the middle, probably towards the top end because of the capabilities of the UKs crack negotiators.
They will probably negotiate a severance figure of €200Bn and claim it as a win. Big number better than little number, who needs experts.
Edukator all the figures are just made up fantasies, mainky for gullible members of the European public who are being lead to believe that tye UK's massive net £10bn payment intontye EU budget won't be missed.
What Davies and the UK team did is ask the EU what LEGAL basis they have for the request, nothing about figures. The EU cannot answer. We already said we will pay what is LEGALLY due. We know what that number is. It is 2 years of budget contributions net of rebates. Post A50 payments are guillotined, ie cut off. The EU drafted it that way as they wanted to ensure net recipients got no more money. Cuts both ways. We don't even owe money for pensions of UK citizens past amd present who are EU employees.
We owe approx £20bn whilst we are members and nothing afterwards. We already said we will make up EU grants / funding after April 2019 [b]directly[/b] to UK entities receiving them.
Therafter we have the EU asset discussion and what money we are owed. As I said I'd be happy to get back our £6bn (?) EIB capital and see the bank gone from the UK. I want nothing at all to do with it.
Where do the 50bn come from quoted on this thread.
That was me being hopelessly optimistic . 100bn is what v is read too but....
I'm sure there is a bit of bluff on both sides re the final figure, so I'm sure it could be negotiated down,
Even bumbling Davis must have some be talents
That said it was only a month ago he was assuring us that we couldn't possibly be following the EU's timetable of agreeing an exit bill first- he actually said it'd be 'row of summer'
https://www.ft.com/content/01396086-38ae-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23
Funnily enough he slunk in with his tail between his legs and meekly agreed to do as the EU told him and do the exit bill 1st and trade talks later.
The Brexies so deluded they probably won't see this early aquiescenc as a portent of what's to come....
oh come on Kimbers , it took Barnier at least a few hours to have DD change his mind . 😆
. We already said we will make up EU grants / funding after April 2019 directly to UK entities receiving them.
Jambafudge alert!!!!
They said funding will be paid [b]until[/b] 2020
After that it's the slippery slope for UK research,
if it were to be 100bn exit bill that'd be beyond 2030 before we break even and can start making up the losses to science funding!
The possible collaborative loss could be the real problem, like the NHS, we've already seen a drop in EU applicants and researchers heading back to the EU
Little Britain here we come ! 🙁
I want nothing at all to do with it.
You are Nigel Farage & I claim my half a crown.
@Kimbers I recall they said until the end of the projects. You are correct to say the EU budget cycle ends in 2020 but my understanding is some projects go longer. To be honest much of it is as clear as mud a bit like the fact there are in the EU's opinion something like 30 different ways to calculate "net budget contribution". Its a total mess.
I think also that a big chunk of this €100bn number is loan guaranties and not acutal cash. However no one is really sure as its just made up figures. There is no contract / budget you can point to to get these numbers.
I claim my half a crown
Excellent 🙂
Joking aside the EIB is a huge potential liability wrt the eurozone. We should take our £6bn capital back and use that to support directly the UK projects (like crossrail) that have EIB loans. £6bn capital is very roughly about £75bn in loans probably more
Which is why the EU will demand a minimum of 50bn as that would mean no other country has to change their planned contributions in the next cycle, just because we've decided to throw a toddler tantrum and strop off..
As for the EIB they've invested billions in the UK projects (5.5bn in 2016) -though you jambafacted previously they didn't help us at all, that's another source of investment the UK gov will have to make up until we've paid off or divorce bill
Essentially all this 'populist' discontent is a kickback against austerity, Brexit commits us to another 6-12 years of that hurting the poorest hardest, just so egoists like rees-mogg, dacre, gove etc can say they've 'taken back control'
Interesting perspective on the state of UK politics in general from our Irish friends:
Well the. Irishtimes agrees with my assessment, I'm assuming that isn't a Murdoch publication!
I think also that a big chunk of this €100bn number is loan guaranties and not acutal cash. However no one is really sure as its just made up figures. There is no contract / budget you can point to to get these numbers.
LOL given leaves grasp of figures I'm not sure who to believe more. The UK is on the hook for payments and Davis knows this,in fact it will be in one of his oh so manylon pages of plans.
Lead by may negotiations start with a u turn inside the first day.
Edukator all the figures are just made up fantasies, mainky for gullible members of the European public who are being lead to believe that tye UK's massive net £10bn payment intontye EU budget won't be missed.
Sigh. It's not £10bn. The Daily Telegraph thinks it's a mere £6.5bn:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/how-much-do-we-spend-on-the-eu-and-what-else-could-it-pay-for/
But you probably knew that.
Well the. Irishtimes agrees with my assessment
Looks a lot like schadenfreude to me after years of the Irish being the butt of English jokes about the Irish being idiots...
I agree with him... we're being led by utter donkeys at the moment...
[quote=Junkyard ]unwise council estate lad who was in the SAS *
* technically the reservist/TA SAS but i bet he is pretty tough
Old bloke who thinks he's still tough.
[quote=jambalaya ]What Davies and the UK team did is ask the EU what LEGAL basis they have for the request
cite
Probably is compared to the other fella whose backstory I do not know but i am guessing he is not as rough and toughty
Look lets be honest the outcome being decided by a fight to the death between the two is probably our best, and only, chance of success 😉
cite makes a lot more sense now i know you are politely saying #jambyfact
It's sad that France is now the coolest country in Europe.
And we're now the least cool.
UK's massive net £10bn payment intontye EU budget won't be missed.
Why do you keep using the wrong fing figure??
I don't know, I guess BS is your forte..
Anyway, is it wrong to be amused by David Davis' crap performance today?
Is the UK actually the B-ark ?
8 seats to one of the pictures our pit pet right wing nut jobs' masturbation wall (yeah, yeah, she "stepped down"). Not even enough to form a parliamentary group.
AfD in Germany polling at its lowest since 2 years.
I wish I'd watched the news instead of believing the guy who'd been correct on everything, ever. I'd assumed the Eurozone had collapsed and Turkey was about to join the EU and we'd have an ocean of refugees waiting at Calais.
That'll teach me.
looks like ole Davis is alone and naked. oh, the imagery.
Jamba - couple of thoughts.
We know what that number is. It is 2 years of budget contributions net of rebates. Post A50 payments are guillotined, ie cut off.
1. The A50 guillotine as you describe it is the no deal position - agreed? So if we want a deal it's likely to be more - agreed again?
2. You previously said no more money, and you've now gone for £20bn - any advance on £20bn?
We started capitulating to EU demands within hours of the negotiation, usual suspects gone quiet, wonder if any of these brexies get what's about to happen?
You guys are hysterical
The EU agreed to discuss trade at their October summit irrespective of any progress or not on the exit arrangements. I can tell you there is going to be no substantive progress on the exit bill by October not least as the Germans have elections and need to keep up the €100bn premise so there are no conversations domestically about how much extra they will have to pay.
Kier Starmer is in a dreadful mess trying to appeal to Remain and Leave Labour voters, even when Ewan pins him down he won't state his postion clearly and lets the BBC do it for him. Labour would give up the ability to sign trade deals with anyone outside the EU in return for membership of the customs union and tariff free trade with the EU, also no mention of cost either. What a dogs breakfast.
Kier Starmer is in a dreadful mess trying to appeal to Remain and Leave Labour voters, even when Ewan pins him down he won't state his postion clearly and lets the BBC do it for him. Labour would give up the ability to sign trade deals with anyone outside the EU in return for membership of the customs union and tariff free trade with the EU, also no mention of cost either. What a dogs breakfast.
Are Labour doing the deal? Has Davis been told he's not supposed to be there?
I can tell you there is going to be no substantive progress on the exit bill by October
Well...
We all know how accurate your predictions are!
😆
as the Germans have elections
What's your prediction?
150 seat majority for your admired AfD?
jambs stop digging!
if you really are a typical leaver then it explains the brexit debate quite well
[url= https://www.healthspiritbody.com/signs-of-a-sociopath/?tzfd2 ]Here Are 5 Undeniable Signs That You Are Arguing With A Sociopath[/url]
They say or do things, and then blatantly deny that those things ever took place. Alternatively, they reinvent history and blame you for “misinterpreting” them.
sounds familiar. 150 anyone?
Anyway, wouldn't it be great if we could embed tweets here. But, here's an excellent thread on FoM which exposes the lies that jamba and the rest of our Brexies have been peddling for years. To be fair, they've only been parroting the anti-EU newspapers, but they've swallowed the lies and repeated them countlessly.
https://twitter.com/jerryhogg/status/876773422042423298
What a dogs breakfast.
credit where it's due, you've got that bang on!
Be careful DD you know what a thin skin he has and will go running to teacher.
Shouldn't be an issue, it's quite easy to demonstrate that his accusation is grounded in fact
So....we want to limit immigration, but we want to avoid a disaster befalling the NHS?
We don't want our exports to be mired in border controls, we want to keep our banking sector happy, we want the best possible trade deal with our European mainland trading partners. We want to have a say in any future EU product safety standards, we also want to avoid a £50bn divorce bill.
Does anyone see a potential solution on the horizon...anyone...anyone...?