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In your opinion - but just about no one else's given the news over the last day or so.
PS when I described you as an IT bod made good, was that reasonably accurate?
IMO
150
😆
Calm down jamba - I realise you're finally coming to terms with what we were all telling you ages ago. But it's ok. Just relax a bit man.
EDIT: oh and,
Trolls will be trolls @deadly who did you vote for
A pro-remain labour candidate. Just like the rest of Bristol. You probably wouldn't like it here too much. 😀
I think it's going to take a wee while longer to realise he's a proponent of lowering the UKs quality of life.
Assuming the UK survives the experience at all. Might end up just being England and Wales yet.
I'm assuming Ruth will have to ask Theresa for at least as much cash for Scotland as Arlene gets for NI or Nicola will be able to beat her about the head with that situation.
Interesting days. And yes the UK is at risk here.
what do the polls sayIMO a WTO Brexit is now much more likely than it was on June 7th
tbh nothing is more likely except uncertainty now.
TelegraphDavid Davis has been stripped of his most hardline Brexit minister in the latest sign that Theresa May is planning to soften the terms of Britain’s exit from the European Union.
David Jones, a minister of state in the Department for Exiting the EU, was sacked as by Mrs May, who failed to tell the Brexit minister about her plans.
He was replaced by Baroness Anelay, who is thought to have supported the Remain campaign before last year’s EU referendum.
Leave the European Union
End freedom of movement
Leave the single market
Leave the customs union
[b]318+266+10 = 594 / 650 seats (at least)[/b]
I dont think ken clarke will be voting with the tories so take at least one off - given that why did dear leader have a vote to strengthen her position ? did she need more labour support and less tories 😉
PLP rejoicing at the election result and welcoming JC....how is strong and stable working out for Mummy?
Its such a strange time when the losers feel better than the winner.
We wont ever see that again IMHO.
Wait and see Jamba.
Your problem is there is little if any support for your preferred Armageddon solution, and a soft Brexit may be difficult to achieve - which leaves no Brexit. Palatable to many, and damaging to no one really.
Brexies are losing even more control. They don't like it.
Trolling goes to 11 @deadly
Yep. The fact Theresa didn't even tell David Davis she'd sacked one of his staff (if true, the Telegraph hasn't got the best record on facts) speaks volumes.
Jamba - I've got you as the troll in this - but only at a humourous level.
[quote=jambalaya ]Trolling goes to 11 @deadly
is that out of 150 ?
is that out of 150 ?
Depends what day it is
Seriously jambs? [i] you're[/i] calling troll? 😆
Anyway that's not trolling - this is trolling.
Corbyn said that he looked forwards to a Queen’s speech “just as soon as the coalition of chaos has been negotiated”, before adding, to laughter: “Just to let the house and the rest of the nation know, if that’s not possible the Labour party stands ready to offer strong and stable leadership in the national interest.”
is that out of 150 ?
350 (million).
I'm low level.
I wonder if Corbyn is going to invite May to condemn terrorism any time soon?
And how he'll word it to make it clear he means unionist paramilitaries?
Looks like the French and Germans are happy to call it all off, inflation now at 2.9%,
More and more companies are starting to outline their plans,
With May unlikely to make it through the parliament have to wonder how much of a mess this is going to turn out to be.
I think it's going to take a wee while longer to realise he's a proponent of lowering the UKs quality of life.
You think he GAS about anyone on less than 150K ??
[img] 
[/img]
Such nice people the Tories.
wife swap....brexit special .....dont miss it
Trouble is the Lawson/jambas significant short term hit to the economy (aka WTO) will cause misery to millions (but worth it for those rich folk who won't suffer)
Now that may doesn't have that majority it's all up for grabs
I have faith in starmer etc getting Brexit reversed (part of the reason I , like many others voted labour, lib Dems just weren't a realistic prospect) , dunno how but there's a path to a 2nd ref somehow and 500k voters turn 18 every year and 500k (actually now more as the Tory NHS/social care attack does its best) OAPs die
I know I'm being a hopeless romantic , but I'd like to think the UK can turn back from this path to fantasy nostalgia little Britain isolationism and idiocy
You see some people still have faith.....
[url=
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40267063 ]
French President Emmanuel Macron says the possibility of the UK remaining in the European Union is an option until Brexit negotiations have concluded.[/url]
I do see a set of conditions where hard brexit is possible. Something like may clinging on, getting a rubbish deal with her typical level of political skill being offered a remain (go and think about clause) storming off and defying Parliament and signing it before retiring to somewhere in the empire.
Probably good odds on there being a you can stay look at the damage done choice.
@deadly why don't you quote a specifc post with the 150 number in so we get a timestamp and then I can show you dozens of subsequent posts with 75-100 which matched all the "experts"
No such thing as a "pro Remain" Labour candidate, see the A50 vote majority, look at the manifesto and listen to the leadership.
Spent 3 years in Bristol at Uni, I don't donate to the Uni as too left wing. Life member of Uni Rugby Club fwiw (ie I made some dinations when they where raising funds).
@kimbers Macron (and some other German politicians) are still clinging to the forlorn hope that we stay. He is well aware of what a massive bugdgetary loss the UK is to the EU as well as the prospect of losing tariff free access to such a valuable and wealthy market if the EU sticks to its Brexit Bill precondition and we leave and resort to WTO. Then we should add in immigration, with the UK outside the freedom of movement zone France will have to cope with even more immigration. Macron would really rather we stayed, that's obvious.
Too good 😆
3 weeks ago Jambers.
Just show a bit of humility and admit you were wrong.
There's no shame in it.
Wait and see Jamba.
Your problem is there is little if any support for your preferred Armageddon solution, and a soft Brexit may be difficult to achieve - which leaves no Brexit. Palatable to many, and damaging to no one really.
Wait and see is indeed the best post on here for a while.
I see more opportunity in new global trade deals that I see in expending energy talking ith EU egotists desperate to maintain their vanity project / gravy train
Far from being an "Armageddon" even the IMF (lead by ex-French finance Minister and big pro-EU Christine Lagrande) says a WTO Brexit the UK would still continue to grow even without assuming any new trade deals.
The vast majority of rest of the world trades very nicely with the EU under WTO, as would we.
so only three weeks ago he was predicting it
I am looking fwd to the ensuing explanation 😆
Thanks Jam Bo. Rusty so shall we add up all the other subsequent posts with 75-100 predictions. Surely just changing my prediction is an admission of being "wrong". Also if you read a few other threads you will see I said exactly what you are suggesting I have not. From memory once in direct responce to Pigface making such a request.
I can show you dozens of subsequent posts with 75-100 which matched all the "experts"
And yet as the experts listened to and saw the evidence of a change you called them all out as headline generators and polling to sell papers.
The vast majority of rest of the world trades very nicely with the EU under WTO, as would we.
But how would it be better? Tariffs are like extra vat. Don't quote yachts or the "average" where would it hit people and where would exports be hit. It will cost the UK consumers more than today.
WTO Brexit the UK would still continue to grow even without assuming any new trade deals.
Was that quantified? Continents are moving closer but I'm still going to fly rather than wait for the land bridge to arrive.
Put the spade down
You didn't just change your position you said 'my prediction [u]remains[/u] 75-100'
You've been caught bullshitting so much you've got your own meme!
You are the perfect example of Vote Leave, the Brexit bus in human form!
Brexit has made us all poorer, exports are up but growth has slowed so [url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/31/uk-comes-bottom-of-the-g7-growth-league-as-canada-takes-the-lead ]we've sunk to the bottom of the G7[/url]...... but you can't even consider admitting that you might be wrong
Rusty so shall we add up all the other subsequent posts with 75-100 predictions. Surely just changing my prediction is an admission of being "wrong".
If you feel you want to, please do.
And why the quotation marks?
You were wrong.
I'd respect you a little more if you admitted it.
No such thing as a "pro Remain" Labour candidate
Liar liar, pants on fire.
Of course there is. I just voted for one. She increased her majority from 4k to 13k, despite UKIP standing down after 7.5k votes last time round.
This was a constituency relatively high on the Tory hit-list which would see them on their way to a:
150 majority
😆
Oops, bin dun.
I see more opportunity in new global trade deals
I'm not interested in attacking you Jam - I honestly would like to know what things lead you to think this, in the spirit of constructive discussion.
We're all human Jambers, even Junkyard (although some scientists disagree on this) 🙂
Admitting you're wrong now and then is a positive character trait.
You're an intelligent bloke and different perspectives are always welcome.
I've changed my mind on lots of things because I respect the opinions of people I know from here.
A bit of humility goes a long way and I bet you'd be surprised at the reaction.
Rusty Spanner - MemberWe're all human
Except chewkw obviously
[quote=kimbers ] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40267063
French President Emmanuel Macron says the possibility of the UK remaining in the European Union is an option until Brexit negotiations have concluded.
Exactly what some of us were suggesting on here very recently, yet only 3 days ago jamba wrote:
[quote=jambalaya ]@mille its quite clear there is no way to cancel it, the EU designed A50 that way to intimidate members
Nice to see (as he appears to have given up relying on that in his response to Macron's statement) he's also admitted he was wrong about that.
At which point I'll also admit I've realised I might have been wrong (though I'm probably joined with most others on this thread and in the wider world on this one). When Maybot says "no deal is better than a bad deal" she's not actually referring to completing Brexit with no deal...
to intimidate members
This should be a really big clue as to who holds the power in negations really.
Jamba I very much doubt it was a request from me, you had me banned for a month, or is that something else you have conveniently forgotten.
Jamba's endless repetition of porkies is one of the things that make political threads on STW so very tedious.
I think the peak of the far right has been passed for now.
Austria was the first clue, then France and in the States they are busily disassembling Trump's team (probably lame duck him rather than impeach) - it's just up to Britain to do its bit and clear up the Brexit mess.
He wouldn't be saying that if he didn't think we wanted back in. Think about it.
The Brexies have messed this country up badly. Decades before we recover from their stupidity.
The vast majority of rest of the world trades very nicely with the EU under WTO, as would we
very nicely for who?
Saw the verhhofstadt comments, wonder if British ministers have been sounding it out?
The vast majority of rest of the world trades very nicely with the EU under WTO, as would we.
But the vast majority of the world hasn't spent 40 years building tightly integrated trading networks with business relying on each other only to have it all torn up in a matter of months. I think that if you took any country and disrupted its trading partnerships this much it would struggle.
Beginning to think you don't really understand what is about to happen Jam.
Any pharmaceutical products made in the uk will need a primary testing lab in Europe, which will likely mean that most companies will move their labs to within bloc.
That's going to cause some big issues.
Am expecting to move to Europe within the next 5 years when we set up within block
Imagine having someone who knew nothing about your job suddenly force you to completely hanger how you do business.
Now Jam will probably say that THE EU forces his business to work a particular way, but that is not quite the same thing. He has regulations enforced for real reasons. And his industry has always had regulations. Grahamt1980's employer will be caused big problems because some other people don't like immigrants.
Am expecting to move to Europe within the next 5 years when we set up within block
It's ok, because jamba told us that the visa system would be a doddle. You'll be alright.
Unless we're still in by then. 🙂
He wouldn't be saying that if he didn't think we wanted back in. Think about it.
Agreed, do the EU want the problem child back? Really?
Agree with Graham, loss of EU funding already hitting life science,
Los of funding from drug companies and maybe even more importantly collaboration will be very hard on labs dependent on access to in development drugs.
Worrying times for UK life sciences
Very amusing, but sadly accurate article about the UKs moment of madness
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/15/britain-brexit-europe-populism-eu
It is now obvious that there was not a plan A, or a plan B, or a plan C, as the government’s incapacity to begin negotiations with a clear strategy demonstrates. The 27 member states, in a hurry to get the whole thing over with, still have not the slightest clue what London wants or how exactly it intends to sever the UK’s extremely complex, 44 year-old legal ties with the EU.
Here we near the sublime: Brexit could amount simply to Britain losing its influence in Brussels, giving up its voice – basically, surrendering its sovereignty without benefiting from any shared sovereignty to limit the coming economic disaster. That’s what’s called political and diplomatic suicide, especially when you remember the unique position the UK had managed to carve itself out in the EU and its influence in Brussels.Now we can really see why the citizens of the old continent are not too keen on following Britain’s example. And we can understand, too, why all of Europe is quietly s****ing at the sorry spectacle of the worn-out old British lion: this week, Emmanuel Macron even allowed himself the luxury of reminding Theresa May, during her visit to Paris, that “the door will stay open, as long as the negotiations are not over”.
then I can show you dozens of subsequent posts with 75-100 which matched all the "experts"
So you admit that your considered estimate was actually just what some experts had said (Thought we'd had enough of experts?)?
In that case can you stop spouting off guff as if you dreamt it up and instead just say which expert told you that?
@deadly I didn't say the visa system would be a doddle. It should be hard to the into the UK, there are very very many people who want to come here from all over the world
Negotiations start on Monday
Leave Means Leave have publsihed an analysis of how much better off we will be without a deal with the EU. Freeing us from unecessary tariffs and irrelevant regulations. £120-150bn pa
@chest I posted before I looked at the analysis which showed the UKiP swing to Tories in Labour's Northern seats as the key driver. Labour kyboshed that by stating clearly they would end freedom of mivement and hence withdraw from THE single market. As Farage said that put Labour on the same "hard Brexit" page as Tories
[quote=jambalaya ] Labour kyboshed that by stating clearly they would end freedom of mivement and hence withdraw from THE single market.
cite
irrelevant regulations
Examples?
Well that should be an interesting read is there anything suggesting anything like this from someone who does not want us to leave - you know someone impartial?Leave Means Leave have publsihed an analysis of how much better off we will be without a deal with the EU.
TBh that "report" is basically nuts
It makes some strange assumptions - all taken from leave sites/believers and their "research" - and then extrapolates them whilst ignoring the reality
For example it claims the cutting of EU red tape will give an immediate 2.5% boost to the economy whilst accepting laws wont change initially and there will be resistance to the changes they want. Yes its that poor folks
Its politically motivated tosh masquerading as research or a report with pretty basic errors in it - BS basically It also reads terribly and is pretty low quality in terms of the style and content. Its many things but academically rigorous [ or relevant] is not one of them.
Thanks for doing the legwork JY - I suspected* as much but CBA reading it.
*knew damn well
Examples?
Building regs, Fire regs, that sort of thing?
Leave Means Leave have publsihed an analysis of how much better off we will be without a deal with the EU.
Any noble prize winning economists on there?
[quote=aracer ]Thanks for doing the legwork JY - I suspected* as much but CBA reading it.
*knew damn well
No probs
PS sent you a PM on here please reply or I will have to use the other channel to get you !!!
Building regs, Fire regs, that sort of thing?
Too expensive to enforce.
Because of some serious big swinging dick move we're about to pull.
Meanwhile, negotiations set to start Monday. No government. No majority. No plan. A dearth of negotiating talent. You couldn't make this shit up. 😆
JY - YGM, sorry for not replying sooner!
They've just had to swap around MPs at early GE Davis's ministry of Brexit amid talk of chaos...
Had a browse of jambas comic, yeah mostly unverified assertions, certainty not properly referenced or backed up with any statistics. Especially the financial benefits of deregulation, (I think this week we've all seen what reducing regulation can lead to)
Quite keynsian though with its infrastructure stimulus, that seems to eclipse EU payment benefits although as THM would point out, not investing from a position of economic strength, sounds like a big hit to the deficit
Some glaring lack of detail to especially regards research & Development, also no mention of increased legal costs and expansion of civil service to replace what we currently farm out to the EU
Some good discussion points but Yeah it's just uncosted partisan Fantasyland for the most part
The only way Brexit can "work" is with huge injections of money, issue is how poor will people accept being before they kick off. A large component of recent elections has been anti tories and anti austerity.
That document at a quick scan (at least the first part) sounds like they want to set up a managed economy where the government makes sure essential industries are funded and staffed. This will be paid for from the new focus on being an export economy. Not sure if they are thinking services or goods.
All the euro red tape was stifling our economy apparently....
Just wait till the shackles are off (or on depending where you sit in the supply chain)
This time next year....
I do look on this with something of "ah well you voted for this" inflation at 3%, pay rises at **** All, interest rates will rise this year - so assuming I can add up 3% + no pay rise + 3% on an average mortgage = exactly £2000 (made this up but it's probably not far off) less money per annum for the average bod?
So if we extrapolate this out for 10 years that means most "Jams" will be queing at food banks. Going to be shed loads of min wage jobs though..
Also Mrs May didn't want to talk to the great unwashed today during her visit to Grenfell Tower as she had to scurry off to placate the Northern Irish politicians who are not in the DUP...
She makes Maggie look warm hearted
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40296649 ]Man who lives unparalleled life of luxury thinks we should just shut up and get on with it[/url]
He added that he is "as much in the dark as anyone else" about Brexit.
Probably no need to read any further than that.
Start how you mean to go on?
Presumably it's a tactical move to keep the EU on their toes?