[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Its a legal opinion and nothing more. There's no doubt numerous other opinions that say otherwise.

Its a legal opinion and nothing more.

But jambs has a downloaded pdf!

Ah ha, the 'PDF file so it must be true' strategy. Remind me to try that with the District Judge in the morning.

Jamba - you need to read that more carefully and think about it in context. Schoolboy error.

"no enforcable" in the Lords' pdf is naive. When big blocks decide to impose their will the consequences of not complying can be ruinous. Use your imagination, what would you do if a rogue state didn't pay its debts? Consider the fate of nations that have defied international/American/EU will over the last century. The only succesful exception I can think of is Taiwan's defiance of China, and we don't know how much more successful they could have been with more cooperation.

And that Jamba is the context.
Thanks Edukator - living up to your name there.

Now Jamba read what it says carefully - not what you want to see.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-4594100/DAILY-BRIEFING-Airbus-threatens-quit-Britain.html

More good news from Airbus this time....

well it is good if you live and work in Toulouse, maybe not so if you live and work at Broughton.

edit I wish to apologise to linking to a DM related site.

Anyone seen the projections for En Marche? 😯

Now that Mummy, and our pet bitty boys, is a mandate. 😀

two things from the french vote, low turnout which isn't the best situation,

oh and the complete failure of FN!

[quote=mrmo ]two things from the french vote, low turnout which isn't the best situation

Quite the contrast to our election - though the turnout wasn't as high as people were suggesting it would be. I haven't seen analysis of turnout by age group, but does that mean the turnout of the young didn't happen, or did some of the old stay at home (as I suspected might be the result of the dementia tax, rather than them switching their vote)?

MrMo it was only the first round to reduce the candidate list to 2 in each "constituency". It's likely more people will vote next weekend. Macron looks like he'll have a decent majority - the socialists have collapsed and he has taken a lot of centre ground votes. Where my wife votes the run off is between 2 right side candidates but the national story is very much in Macron's favour. Marine Le Penn looks like she will be elected to represent the Calais area

and having a low turnout never helps .

As for getting the Pas de Calais voting FN, a region that screwed, voting for an extremist is not surprising.

Also I believe the French focus more on the Presidential election than the parliamentary one. My wife votes in everything but some in her family vote only in the Presidential election and sometimes only in tje second round of either

http://newsthump.com/2017/06/12/bloody-french-politicians-just-rubbing-our-noses-in-it-complain-british-electorate/
😆

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40243782

Queens speech indefinitely delayed....

Sounds like the 1922 aren't fully behind Mrs May yet.

Picked up another gem. Brexit is already helping with at pesky immigration thing. 🙄

There has been a sharp drop in the number of nurses registering to work in the UK since the EU referendum, figures suggest.
Last July, 1,304 nurses from the EU joined the Nursing and Midwifery Council register.
That compares with just 46 in April this year, a fall of 96%.

Taking back control

when you die unattended in your hospital bed at least youll now that it was an evil EU nurse thats forgotten about you
[img] [/img]

in the meantime 1 in 9 nursing posts vacant. 🙄

I was winding up my FIL at the weekend that his leave vote almost let a communist (as he would see it) into Number 10. The look on his face 😆

Entirely predictable.

Skilled workers have options other places, so when the UK become anti-foreigner they go other places.

Edit - nurses not FILs. Although now I come to consider...

Surely not?

[url= http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/11/the-dup-could-insist-on-nigel-farage-having-a-role-in-brexit-negotiations-6701540/ ]DUP could insist on a role for Farage[/url]

slowoldman - Member
Surely not?

DUP could insist on a role for Farage

There was a recent question- where did the DUP get the money from?

Looking at the above, this could tie in.

Osbornes not gonna let it lie
[img] [/img]

I've been out of this thread for a few hundred pages and was wondering if anyone had come up with any quantifiable way that we'll be better off after we leave the EU?

was wondering if anyone had come up with any quantifiable way that we'll be better off after we leave the EU?

Jambaworld looks very rosy.. Otherwise no not really..

I think Jambaworld is something like this:

Naive is an interesting choice of words Edukator because [b]naive[/b] is what it woukd be to make a [b]donation[/b] of £1bn, £5bn, £10bn, £25bn, £50bn or £100bn to the European Union vanity and ego project

It is not remotely "ruinous" for the UK to trade with the EU under WTO tariffs. It is not even negative for the econony, the pessimistic projections show the UK would [b]continue to grow[/b] (albeit at a lower rate) until such a time as we agreed other trade deals. Then you have the reality that Europe mired in outdated and unaffordable social restraints will continue to grow much much more slowly than the rest of the world, ie the places where we will be signing new trade deals

Edukator I am afraid you have as the Americans say "drunk the coolaid"

A good friend of mine (and Remainer) has had a number of private briefings from consultants and startegists and they make the point that in their opinion there is unlikely to be a deal as EU will stick to its fantasy of a Brexit Bill a donation which the UK will not pay. This will cause huge trauma particularly in Europe as people like yourself believe its a legitimate bill when it is nothing of the sort. There will be long lasting consequences as the finger pointing will ramp up.

Then during all of this we will see the resurfacing of the Greek (and then Italian ...) debt crises

Mr Macrin has his €50bn austerity programme to implement and in a year max he will have to face either a larger EU budget contribution (circa €5bn pa) or pursueding the newer EU members to receibg substantially less in grants and investment.

It is not remotely "ruinous" for the UK to trade with the EU under WTO tariffs

let them eat yachts...

to the European Union vanity amd ego project

It is not remotely "ruinous" for the UK to trade with the EU under WTO tariffs. It is not even negative for the econony, the pessimistic projections show the UK would continue to grow (albeit at a lower rate)

Then during all of this we will see the resurfacing of the Greek (and then Italian ...) debt crises

@igm before 2000 most immigrant staff within the nhs came from outside the EU (I have a chart somewhere). A good friend if mine works in HR for a major nhs hospital, many of her staff come from Asia under 3 year work visas. Europeans can come and do the same if they wish

Europeans can come and do the same if they wish

But they're not are they, that's the problem.............

Jamba - they don't want to because you lot told them you didn't like them. Yes?
You've been unpleasant and they're taking their business elsewhere.

A good friend if mine works in HR for a major nhs hospital, many of her staff come from Asia under 3 year work visas. Europeans can come and do the same if they wish

Also the state of the working life in the nhs is not good in the eyes of the rest of the world. Plenty of brit medics here in Oz who are never going back. Once you loose the attraction of being able to live and settle you need to offer something else.

#shortsighted

The Labour Party stood on a manifesto to end Freedom of movement amd hence the single market and customs union. The only significant difference wrt Tories was May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" (statement of the bleeding obvious I would say)

So of 650 Westminster MPs 584 = 318+266 (at least) stood for a "hard" Brexit

@igm I didn't tell anyone I didn't like them. I said they where all welcome with a work VISA just like I was welcome in the US and Singapore

The Leave Campaign made it very clear it expectwd EU citizens in the UK would have the rigjt to stay. The EU refused to discuss that till after A50 (playing politics) and have now come up with a list of crazy demands

Yes Jamba, but no one believes the Labour stance. 😉

And you may not think you told them you didn't like them, but it appears they do. And that's what matters.

They are actually quitting

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/18/nhs-eu-nurses-quit-record-numbers

A good friend if mine works in HR for a major nhs hospital, many of her staff come from Asia under 3 year work visas

arent non eu numbers down to
our brexit devalued £ makes us less appealing for all foreign workers, skilled or not

. I said they where all welcome with a work VISA just like I was welcome in the US and Singapore

Perhaps it's time to accept that helping prep a yacht isnt where most people exist.

The Leave Campaign made it very clear it expectwd EU citizens in the UK would have the rigjt to stay.

But there were only suppositions and expecations, no concrete plan. That's why it was such a stupid referendum.

@kimbers no idea about fx impact, relatively modest I would imagine. A reduction of say 10-15% in what they can send home

"No one believes the Labour Party" - you could well be right 🙂 I suspect the students don't even realise that's the manifesto policy, they are voting on other issues

From the BBC piece on the reduction of applicants to the nurses register (ie potentially interested in working here)

But the NMC said the introduction of English language testing for EU nurses is also likely to have played a role

It's like the fuss with Uber as London will now give drivers an English test. Uproar.

A reduction of say 10-15% in what they can send home

relatively modest I would imagine. A reduction of say 10-15% in what they can send home

you're not on the same salary as a nurse, are you.....

It seems Jam won't acknowledge the difference between moving somewhere under freedom of movement and moving somewhere with a visa.

Do you appreciate there is a difference, Jam?

[quote=molgrips ]It seems Jam won't acknowledge the difference between moving somewhere under freedom of movement and moving somewhere with a visa.
Do you appreciate there is a difference, Jam?

can you sail there?

[quote=jambalaya ]The Labour Party stood on a manifesto to end Freedom of movement amd hence the single market and customs union.

cite

The only significant difference wrt Tories was May's statement that "no deal is better than a bad deal" (statement of the bleeding obvious I would say)

I would say that no deal doesn't even mean no deal

I've been out of this thread for a few hundred pages and was wondering if anyone had come up with any quantifiable way that we'll be better off after we leave the EU?

@kimbers no idea about fx impact, relatively modest I would imagine. A reduction of say 10-15% in what they can send home

FFS..............You've got to be trolling now.

DUP want us inside customs union as checks at Irish border would be financially too painful for them to sell to voters

possible sticking point in deal, not sure how May can guarantee anything in negotiations, especially now with no credibility or legitimacy

mandate for brexit my left nut!

[quote=kimbers ]relatively modest I would imagine. A reduction of say 10-15% in what they can send home
you're not on the same salary as a nurse, are you.....

I'm sure we'd all be jumping for joy if we get a 10-15% pay cut tomorrow

you're not on the same salary as a nurse, are you.....

Nurses salary and their expenses are in £, modest increase in expenses due to inflation this past year (possibly even a decrease in rents depending where they are). So net income after expenses basically the same. FX impact on that 10-15% in say Phillipine Peso terms for example

@boarding they haven't had any pay cut, see above

Jamby - member
Nurses salary and their expenses are in £, modest increase in expenses due to inflation this past year (possibly even a decrease in rents depending where they are). So net income after expenses basically the same. FX impact on that 10-15% in say Phillipine Peso terms for example

It's always fun trying to spot the gaping holes in your arguments. I always know that there is one, but the challenge you throw down, faithfully, every day, is to find it! Challenge accepted!

So, as an economist, you should know that the ultimate test of whether or not nurses are being paid too much or too little is what the recruitment numbers look like. Lots of people wanting to be nurses? Paying too much. Not enough? Paying too little. It's that easy.

https://www.rcn.org.uk/news-and-events/news/rcn-concerned-at-fall-in-nursing-degree-applications
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-40248366

Hmmm, it would appear we're not paying them enough. What do I win?

Thought he was an IT bod made good not an economist.

What do I win?

a 10-15% pay cut

Interesting - a new concensus?

Gavin Barwell, who lost his seat but has since been appointed Mrs May's chief of staff, said Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn had "tapped into" public anger over Brexit and austerity, saying some voters were dismayed about the prospect of years of future public sector pay freezes.
He told the BBC's Panorama his party had to listen to Remain voters about their concerns. Meanwhile his colleague George Freeman said it was time for the government to "drop a hard Brexit" message and return to a "message of hope" he said Mrs May articulated when she first became prime minister.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson has said the priority of Brexit talks should be the economy and free trade and that other parties should be involved in negotiations.
After attending Monday's meeting of senior ministers and Tory officials, she said: "We do have to make sure that we invite other people in now. This isn't just going to be a Tory Brexit, this is going to have to involve the whole country."

In other news apparently no goats are harmed in the making of goat skin parchment. I can't cite that as I can remember where I saw it. But it's real apparently.

As each Brexit stage goes by the time taken increases and the conviction diminishes. Six months ago very few people thought Macron had any chance of being president and no chance of having a majority government. Someone in the UK needs to have Macron's confidence and vision and use putting a stop to Brexit as a base to their manifesto. Now is the time to do it. Madame was right six months back BTW, it was a long shot and Macron was right on target:

Madame likes Macron, there were something like 50 000 party members involved in organising today's centre/right primaries. Macron needs to build that kind of support and put together a party double quick if he is to stand a chance as an alternative to the PS. It's a long shot.

Someone in the UK needs to have Macron's confidence and vision and use putting a stop to Brexit as a base to their manifesto.

Forgive me, I don't know much about French politics, but isn't Macron's whole party a new movement? I cannot see the political climate in the UK allowing a new party to sweep to power in a short time - but I am not exactly sure why.

Someone in the UK needs to have Macron's confidence and vision and use putting a stop to Brexit as a base to their manifesto.
Forgive me, I don't know much about French politics, but isn't Macron's whole party a new movement? I cannot see the political climate in the UK allowing a new party to sweep to power in a short time - but I am not exactly sure why.

Agreed - someone needs to but on the surface at least, no-one appears to be stepping forward. Liberal Party are too weak it seems, so we need a new centrist movement. Tony Blair hinted at something like this in the video I posted last week but he's pretty toxic for the British public so I don't think he's the right figurehead. We probably need someone younger too.

Tories think they're the natural party of power in the UK - being the party of the aristocracy and establishment so they'll not go down without a very, very hard fight. This election may just be the beginning of the end of them - their base is already dying off... in 10 years time they'll be far less dominant amongst the electorate and the generation below (mine) are more naturally socially liberal so are less likely to instinctively vote Tory just because they always have...

I can't believe no-one's plotting something - Brexit is too much of a loss for too many powerful people. Maybe they're just biding their time - once the economy's hurting and house prices have fallen more and people are feeling real pain then they'll move - not before end 2017 at the earliest IMO. Economy is already struggling on so many metrics - inflation, growth, retail volumes, real wages and now the holy grail of house prices beginning to go too... but people need to feel more pain before they'll act IMO.

In the meantime there's an awful lot of people at work who're openly hostile to Brexit and to May/Tories - I've never known the UK so politicised since I've been an adult. The hard Brexiters keep quiet - they know we all think they've made the stupidest decision and they're certainly not proud of it as they never try and make their case publicly. If the hard Brexiters are already feeling challenged to this extent then I suspect there's more than a few soft Brexiters silently regretting what they did and if we give them an easy way to change their minds where they don't have to do it publicly then they'll take it I reckon... Farage is clearly a spent force likely to have less influence if we come to another referendum

Blimey jambalaya, you are the gift that keeps on giving. Have you forgotten the magic money tree already? 😆
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-nhs-nurses-election-2017-bbc-question-time-leaders-special-a7770371.html ]nurse's pay in real terms[/url]

He lives in his own world,like so many isolated from where people are doing it tough. There is very little point trying to convince him otherwise like a few others they would struggle to comprehend how to live on 25k or even consider moving to another country for that.
The facts of WTO - May's no deal deal are stark and depressing. The implications including hard borders, tariffs which no matter what you cherry pick or average will have an impact on imports and exports, no FoM/visa's and immigration haters in charge of them will mean the UK is worse off.

Comes back to one very simple point - how can you trust people who can't even manage the maths of the rebate.

and more bad news for the rabid brexiters
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40251190

It said without a more pro-business stance, the resulting political instability may force more firms to alter their plans "away from the UK".
The EEF is the latest business organisation to call for a rethink of the government's Brexit plans.
It wants access to the single market to be at the heart of Brexit negotiations.
The EEF said even before the election firms were already altering or thinking about changing their business plans because of the Brexit vote.
Terry Scuoler, EEF chief executive, said the government had already "wasted a year" and needed to "move away from its previous rhetoric and start repairing relations with EU partners".
For the EEF that meant putting access to the single market and staying in a customs union at the centre of the government's negotiations and involving business groups in the talks over trade.

Yes Molgrips, En Marche is whole new movement started by one man a year ago (though I reckon it was his wife's idea).

Maybe they're just biding their time - once the economy's hurting and house prices have fallen more and people are feeling real pain then they'll move - not before end 2017 at the earliest IMO. Economy is already struggling on so many metrics - inflation, growth, retail volumes, real wages and now the holy grail of house prices beginning to go too... but people need to feel more pain before they'll act IMO.

The bigger problem in UK politics is finding the launch pad. A presidential system put them all up for discussion and then he could follow with a parliamentary bid. Could he have done it the other way around?

The other option is a split from the current lot joining to form something new.

Trouble is the Liberal Party needs to rebrand itself. As a party it has far too much baggage and a history of under-performing. The term "Liberal" is used by many now as a derogatory term, such that the true political meaning has been lost. People need to have a party they can identify with, hence the success of the UK Independence Party. If most of the people who voted for them actually read their manifesto they would be aghast.....

What is needed is a snappy party title that people who are not hard core socialist and not hard core right wing nut-jobs can actually get behind and feel comfortable with. Any ideas for a name?

Progressive Party?
Social Democrats? (Been tried!)
UK Centrist Party?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40259392

More good Brexit news, inflation up, again.

Let's hope the tories hang on a bit, in office but not in power, while the good news piles up.

What is needed is a snappy party title that people who are not hard core socialist and not hard core right wing nut-jobs can actually get behind and feel comfortable with.

This is what I'm hearing all over - my friends in London want it (currently left of centre) my friends in the home counties want it (currently right of centre) and a chunk of my work colleagues in Middle England want it (currently a Tory seat but only just scraped through last week.

I suspect a lot of previous Labour and Tory voters don't want to stay with either of those parties as they're heading off to the extremes but don't feel the Liberal Party has a strong enough vision-based cause to fall behind.

Plus I think we all recognise that brexit or not, we're seriously up the creek and we've used up all our paddles and got no money left to buy any more - and the two-party 'shout at each other and ignore the electorate' system just isn't anything we respect any more - it's not fit for purpose in a crisis.

I think the middle ground is there for the taking - we need a technocratic, pragmatic ideology-free coalition that governs for the people and the situation we're in rather than for itself. The sooner someone serious and capable steps up to the plate, the better. The longer they fail to do this the more down the slippery slope of extremism we going to fall...

the two-party 'shout at each other and ignore the electorate' system

Were you here for the election?

Years ago we voted in a referendum on a change to the voting system. One which would in all probability have delivered coalition government. We threw it out (well, "them others" did). We need a party with radical views - though what they are, who knows?

The longer they fail to do this the more down the slippery slope of extremism we going to fall...

All depends what you see as extremism and what you are used to.

As said during the election campaign, Labours policies were middle of the road for many Scandanavian countries so they would be fairly centrist policies.

Right, Left, Centre are just words and don't mean anything in themselves. Why is Centre better than Left or Right, just because it is in the middle?

Years ago we voted in a referendum on a change to the voting system. One which would in all probability have delivered coalition government.

The main front page story on the DT (the paper version, it doesn't get so much prominence online):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/12/tory-labour-mps-plot-secret-deal-ensure-soft-brexit/

Also a couple of articles on the Jezza thread seem more relevant here:
https://capx.co/all-that-matters-now-is-stopping-corbyn/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2017/jun/12/paul-mason-jeremy-corbyn-defeat-ruling-elite-antonio-gramsci

I'd have dismissed the Graduin article as wishful thinking, were it not for the capx article.

And another great Brexit result. Just when are the Brexit fans going to start acknowledging that what we're losing is more than what they seek to gain.

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40264755 ]London to lose EUR clearing[/url]

I always wondered why May was going for the most extreme version of Brexit given that in April 16 she thought that leaving was a really stupid thing to do - it seemed inconsistent to say the least.
I assumed it was one of two things - the extreme right wing in her party really did have that much of a hold over her.

OR - she knew that the harder the Brexit she offered, the more likely there'd be resistance from her MPs, Parliament overall and from us, the electorate - as by definition hard Brexit was disfavoured by almost the entire nation.

Interesting that today the leaks are coming out that cross-party talks are already taking place around a softer Brexit as a reaction to this ultra-hard approach. If Parliament as a whole takes a view of Brexit that is representative of the views of individual MPs then we'll not be leaving as most were Remain.

As the economy sinks (already doing so) as a result of the referendum and sentiment around the ultra-hard option, the more moderate Out voters will soften up and reconsider if they really made the right decision (as well as many of them suffering the anger of their family member over what they've done...

So we're already beginning to slide down the slippery slope of leaving hard Brexit behind. How long before public opinion shifts away entirely? When will be the right point to suggest a second referendum once an actual deal is on the table?

Or am I making massive assumptions that May is that cunning...

Or am I making massive assumptions that May is that cunning...

Hanlon's razor. Though I did suggest the reverse Hanlon's razor earlier, as the level of incompetence required seems implausible.

@brooess why don't you read May's 11 point EU negotiating letter ? She is going for a bold ambitious and broad free trade agreement. What she also totally reasonably said is that if the EU won't play ball she will walk away.

Where where our Referendum's on the Maastricht and Lisbon Treaties ?

We know where the referendum was on the EU constitution - the French rejected it in theirs so outs was cancelled. The EU thrn wrapped it all up into the Lisbon Treaty and the F-wit Blair signed it

The Dutch passed into law that all future EU trieaties or modifications require a binding referendum.

Jammers - Member
What she also totally reasonably said is that if the EU won't play ball she will walk away.

Everyone knows now that if you put a bit of pressure on her, she'll cave in.

Wow...so angry as he sees Brexit disappearing down the toilet.

Trolls will be trolls @deadly who did you vote for Labour stood on a manifesto with honouring Brexit and wnding freedom if movement hence an exit of THE single marke amd the customs union. Unless you voted Lub Dem or Green you supported Brexit.

IMO a WTO Brexit is now much more likely than it was on June 7th