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They EU is very poorly placed to handle the reduction in exports to the UK
Really? Why?
They've got far more people and businesses, and a far larger economy around which to spread the loss.
I think Jamba forgot he had François Fillon down as next French President earlier in this thread. And Marine Le Pen as the biggest party in the primaires.
Or that he [url= http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/donald-trump#post-7057464 ]once said[/url] of Trump: [i]"Novelty value only, he has no chance of being elected."[/i]
But yeah... totally right all the time 😀
The USA?
Not even close
Yorkshire is the UK's biggest trading partner, till we get us freedom. Then we will only deal with those that are proper tight like Holland and Scotland.
@Graham indeed I did, Fillion was the predicted winner until Macron's buddies leaked the Penelope information (non-public tax records). IMO no charged will be filed but it's job done as Macron will win.
I do love the "never mind the quality fell the width" argument about the EU. Yup its 500m people many of whom are really quite poor and overall its a region with virtually no growth in world terms
@molgrips you may have noticed how negative I am on Europe's economic prospects and the looming eurozone catastrophe. That's why.
We trade wirh most of the rest of the workd under WTO, we can do the same with Europe.
Don't know why you don't think a shitload of red tape and extra tariffs won't make a difference...
and the looming eurozone catastrophe.
Surely it would've happened by now, brexies been banging on about it for years....
Meanwhile Brexits already cost UK households 500 quid a year- we haven't even got to May's cliff edge yet !!
I do love the "never mind the quality fell the width" argument about the EU. Yup its 500m people many of whom are really quite poor and overall its a region with virtually no growth in world terms
Mature economies grow less than developing, expecting the EU to keep up with the BRICS is quite insane TBH
Now lets look at the UK, some of the richest and poorest areas in Europe. More than half the population receive more than they pay in.
Productivity is pretty abysmal, as are GDP PPP etc etc.
i prefer listening to folk explain how an economy "risking" 4 % of its exports is in deep trouble where as one risking 44% of its has a fantastic opportunity to ride an arc of prosperity and will be much better off afterwards
Granted it has no facts to support it but that will not be holding you back.
Yup its 500m people many of whom are really quite poor and overall its a region with virtually no growth in world terms
But you're always fond of telling us how rich we all are in Europe...when justifying the victimisation of the poor. Make up your mind.
Another #jambafact
Watching Direct 5 where a panel has noted that Marine Le Pen has adopted a tactic I've already seen used by the Brexit team and Trump - the bare-faced lie. As the journalists are saying, how do you interview someone when she lies, you point out that the the stats/info being presented is false and she continues with the lie?
I predicted the other night that May and Davies' embarrassing lack of preparation and knowledge at he dinner would be spun today as the EU's inflexibility and bullying.
And right from this morning with Frasier Nelson, it's been this all day.
Losing control.
But you're always fond of telling us how rich we all are in Europe...when justifying the victimisation of the poor. Make up your mind.
Indeed.
The [url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) ]GDP (PPP) of the EU as a whole is the second highest in the world[/url], behind China but ahead of the US, India and Japan.
The [url= http://www.tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-per-capita-ppp ]GDP per Capita (PPP) of the EU[/url] [i]is[/i] less impressive, granted, thanks to some comparatively poor members, but it is still twice the world average and its not really [i]that[/i] far behind our own (those 2015 figures show UK at $38509.21 and EU at $35630.30).
Nail on head.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/britain-complacency-brexit-humiliation--france-germany-eu-uk?CMP=fb_gu
whenever you read any article you should look who wrote it, and see if there may be reasons why it was written other than the apparent gist of the article.
That article was written by Simon Tilford, who is deputy director of the centre for european reform ( https://www.cer.org.uk/personnel/simon-tilford) ,their aim is ( https://www.cer.org.uk/about)
"The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical"
So bearing the above in mind of course he would say what he said in that article. I dont think his view can be taken as impartial in this debate.
I dont think his view can be taken as impartial in this debate.
You can make that claim for 80% of stuff written about this Brexit debacle
You can make that claim for 80% of stuff written about this Brexit debacle
true
"The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical"
I think the key words here are 'reform' and 'not uncritical'.
We trade wirh most of the rest of the workd under WTO, we can do the same with Europe.
not without introducing additional complexity and cost, which you appear either to not have any knowledge of, or don't care about. which is it, just out of interest?
Be fair to Jamba he's a money man. As I understand it his background is not in trade or industry merely investment (though he has a little computing too I think), so he wouldn't have knowledge of some of the difficulties for others trying to work internationally.
Just as I can't understand how IT types seem incapable of getting anything right (posted via an iPhone on a web forum).
It's actually the opposite when EU bureaucrats understand and realise that they are actually self-harming when they are bullying UK ... 😆Nipper99 - Member
Nail on head.
The EU bureaucrats are thickos aren't they, never learned and never will. 😆
So bearing the above in mind of course he would say what he said in that article. I dont think his view can be taken as impartial in this debate.
I don't think that's entirely fair. He didn't become the deputy director by accident, did he? I doubt he was completley neutral about the EU until that job dropped in his lap and they started to brainwash him.
I rather suspect that he already had a pro-EU opinion before he took the job. It is reasonable that someone with a pro-EU stance would write an anti-Brexit article. The piece is very clearly opinion, and it even says that in the top right.
Amuse me Chewkw, when exactly have the EU bullied the U.K.?
Anyway my mate Bob (remember him) from Hartlepool has taken voluntary redundancy and as he says 4 months wages tax free you can't save that sort of money? And he has himself a kitchen Portesham job lined up at a local pub/restaurant on £7.50 an hour - not quite the Brexit he expected but he is happy at the moment as he no longer needs to drive to work.
See simple problems need simple solutions - chuck em a bag of peanuts then handful each day... one day they hope they will get a another bag of peanuts..
Meanwhile rich folks count theiron peanut warehouses. Gotta love the great unwashed...
This thread has become a proxy for whinning about the Tory Government for some. Fact is 5 weeks from now they are going to have a huge Brexit mandate and a majority not seen for 20+ years.
Services are tariff free. There is no complication. The avergae WTO tariff is 3%, the currency move has more than compensated for that wrt exports and anything which discourages imports is a benefit to the uk economy. In the whole WTO will protect our farmers and fishermen. Molgrips I find it hard to imagine how our businesses, the vast majority of which doen't export to the EU will find the bureacracy worse. The businessman who spoke at the vote Leave launch event I went to listed regularion after regulation which were drafted for some niche European country's benefit which had zero relevance in the UK.
@dd May was perfectly prepared for the Junker meeting. Law Lords analysis that there is no legal basis for a "Brexit Bill". None. A willingness and desire to agree a deal for UK citizens / EU nationals by June ("too complicated says EU will take much longer"). A desire for a broad free trade agreement.
May was perfectly prepared for the Junker meeting.
#jambafact
EDIT: you're also showing that you don't understand the implications of "going WTO". But you're not alone. Neither do most Brexiteers.
...when they are bullying UK ...
🙄
By "bullying" you mean not allowing the UK to have its cake and eat it (as Boris famously said)?
That's like saying I'm bullying burglars by locking my door!
In the whole WTO will protect our farmers and fishermen.
I can't see how removing the hefty EU tariffs (the ones you yourself decry as "protectionism") that protect our farmers from cheap mass-produced meat from countries with lower welfare standards and intensive farming will make life better for our farmers.
listed regularion after regulation which were drafted for some niche European country's benefit
So the tune starts to change and The Great Copy-Paste Bill becomes The Great Get Rid Of Regulations We Don't Like Without Public Scrutiny Bill.
I believe the main ones highlighted recently were the Working Time Directive, incandescent light bulbs, inefficient motors for hoovers, and the ability to kill endangered newts.
If I was a U.K. farmer, I'd be very worried right now. May will sell them down the river in a heartbeat.
Well post Brexit I think the EU can make some positive changes:
Ban RHD vehicles with immediate effect. Road safety will benefit.
Add Britain to the list of rogue financial states (it should already be on the list) in which holding bank accounts is illegal for EU citizens.
Double, hell triple, taxe foncière and habitation for non EU property owners in Europe.
Make Type approval and EC certificate testing in EU based test facilities obligatory for all non EU goods.
8) 😀
😛
Yup, that's tongue in cheek, but until measures like that are on the agenda I think British politicians (and citizens) would do well to shut up about bullying.
Services are tariff free. There is no complication. The avergae WTO tariff is 3%, the currency move has more than compensated for that wrt exports and anything which discourages imports is a benefit to the uk economy. In the whole WTO will protect our farmers and fishermen.
o rly?
wto is 10% on cars, 12% on wheat estimates range form an extra [url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/what-would-brexit-mean-for-british-trade/ ]40-165bn a year cost[/url] to uk non-service exports
services are still restricted, -passporting and other banking regs, other barriers include certifcation etc energy markets not fully opened up
opening it up is an [url= https://ec.europa.eu/commission/priorities/internal-market_en ]ongoing project[/url] we will now be outside of
we will also be outside of the EUs new digital Single Market which is still under development and worth >400bn accross the EU
yes we will be transcribing the new laws but into our statute books but one of the great unresolveds of brexit is will we be changing our laws to match the EUs as they constantly evolve?
The new digital disputes platform will be essential to compete globally but presumably require ECJ oversight,
its the same conundrums over and over, leaving the EU makes us less competitive in an ever more interconnected and integrated world
maybe we can tie ourselves to the the US as its growth slows and the EUs speeds up ?
same deal with pharma as we leave the EMA we look set to loose our status as the worlds 3rd largest destination for Pharma R&D investment, the big drug companies are looking to relocate staff already, how much of their 15bn a year will the uk economy loose?
May will be bloody tough 🙄 but we all know thats just empty bluster for her gullible brexies supporters
so many stumbling blocks and questions
-
Mays 'cards to her chest' stance so obviously means - keep quiet till after the GE when the compromises can begin in earnest
Has the eurozone imploded yet by the way?
[url= http://www.marke****ch.com/story/eurozone-current-account-surplus-hits-record-high-2017-04-21 ]Eurozone surplus hits record high.[/url]
In order to keep his 100% record on everything it has to happen soon
Its always dawniest before the dark Ed.
@dd I said after the German elections, the "bailouts" have been nothing mire than a delaying excersize. Trumpmis going to have a field day via the US's dominant seat at the IMF
@Edukator Le Pen confirmed a return to the Franc in 2 years, she won't win but she has been clear.
Meanwhile May has had a field day with the FAZ piece, massive Junker own goal. Spectator quotes below but in all the papers [b]#BloodyDifficultWoman[/b]
Later on in an interview with the BBC, May addressed reports in the foreign media of her ‘disastrous’ Brexit dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker, which saw the Prime Minister accused of ‘living in another galaxy’ and lacking a clue when it comes to the Brexit negotiations. Rather than downplay reports of a frosty relationship with the European Commission president, May doubled down – explaining that she was a difficult woman to negotiate with and a proud one at that.
Referencing the term Ken Clarke once used to describe her, May said that Juncker was learning that she was a ‘bloody difficult woman’. The Prime Minister went on to say that she did not ‘recall’ a lot of the account that has been given of the meeting – putting it down to Brussels gossip. But her message was clear. If the negotiations really are going to be this nasty, complicated and hard-going, who do you want at the negotiating table: Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn?
looks like the UK cares about its territories and is properly investing in them.
If the negotiations really are going to be this nasty, complicated and hard-going, who do you want at the negotiating table:
😳
thats the ultimate fail right there- the 'logic'of brexies
they dont have to be that hard, May could do something revolutionary and just be honest with the public, rather than cowering before Dacre and Murdoch
sadly shes just Weak & Powerless
Nearly sidestepping your lack of understanding of WTO there again jambalaya.
Has May actually got anything original to say?
She thinks being a "bloody difficult woman" is going to work? I realise this kind of talk gives Brexiteers a raging hard-on, but really, time to grow up.
Clock's ticking jambalaya. You're losing control. You've got amateurs running the show. Time to cry "Mummmmmmyyyyyyy". The EU is bullying us again.
If anyone catches footage of May being booed out of another community centre in Bristol (naturally stuffed with placard carrying Tories, not members of the community), that happened just round the corner from me. She came to the wrong neighbourhood. 😀
Are the FT reporting the divorce bill as rising to £100bn?? 😆
Mummy doesn't seem to have a monopoly on being bloody difficult.
If we are to continue being a major market for European goods, as Brexiters say, then they aren't going to want to damage our economy too much are they?
The mood of the EU seems quite open minded to me, but they clearly cannot move their red lines can they?
#BloodyDifficultWoman 🙂
##BloodyDifficultWoman
#weknow
##BloodyDifficultWoman
#weknow
/p>
its gonna be her shambles at the home office all over again
she could oust cameron as the PM who sunk the UK at this rate!
In the whole WTO will protect our farmers and fishermen.
You really are clueless aren't you Jambalaya.
There's difficult and then there's just plain ignorant.
So simply question....
Who pays the WTO tariffs?
From an EU perspective letting the UK do WTO for a couple of years or a decade should make negotiations for a trade deal much easier.
by then the EU will want to hang on the coattails of SS Britannia and be shoehorned into our trade deals around the world that have swept the nation with bountifulness wealth as the EU is politically divided the Euro has imploded and greece has defaulted only then will thy have finally realised the truth that they need us more than we need them
May will wipe the floor with them them
I look forward to negotiating in 5-10 years if they want to bully us
Jesus the shred of sanity that existed on this thread has gone....
One more go - (outside the EU)
1. What are we going to sell?
2. Who is going to buy it?
No jam jokes, financial services bollocks or mystery technology. It will take 3 generations to re skill this country and no Tory government will pay for it, it's too late poor people the ship has sailed, the EU didn't take your jobs (not jobs its standard of living thats gone)it was the market (supported by all of us) and now automation.
In 1983 i was paid £5 an hour as a time served craftsman at 20 years old - to help with the maths a beer was less than a quid. How many 20 year olds are on £20 an hour currently that's a £40k salary, it's gone and not likley to return. Heading into WTO land will only make it worse not better.
No, it's all going to be perfect, really it is, trust me.
The shred of sanity went when we stopped discussing an independent Yorkshire. All this EU stuff is total speculation, not one of us knows what will happen but we'll use the media information that backs our particular prejudice then spout away as if it's fact. None of us know we are just making all up. It would be good to hear from someone who has actually been involved in EU the framing and writing of EU Directives, perhaps sat in the room with the EU Comissioner responsible for bringing in a new directive. Perhaps they could illuminate the way the democratic EU system works. Anyway back to real world, Free Yorkshire an it better be cheap. The bill for Yorkshire to,leave will be £100bn, I'm sure the City can find the money to get us out.
Making quotes about being a 'bloody difficult woman' doesn't create a reality.
May does not even have the confidence to stand up in public and debate the GE with the other contending leaders.
Or maybe that's what she means about being difficult , she'll run away whenever it gets too tough for her. 😀
It would be good to hear from someone who has actually been involved in EU the framing and writing of EU Directives,
had a good talk from a lawyer who works in Europe on medical research law, as with all law, EU law is constantly evolving to keep pace with (in this case) scientific and medical advances,
because the UK is such a life sciences hub and been the most successful writers of grants & biggest receiver of EU science funds, weve had the biggest impact in shaping EU law in this regard.
With the loss of the EMA, participation in ERASMUS, Horizon 2020, Euratom etc we will be forced to duplicate much of the legal and regulatory framework ourselves, remaining competitive will cost more n time and money.
Mrs May is simply objection handling in advance of the deal, any sales person on here should recognise this positioning approach.
She will -
1. Blame EU for failure of deal
2. Claim that she is responsible for a good deal
Sad very sad
Why go into a negotiation where you are looking for a win win outcome with such an antagonistic stand.
It is really stupid,
She does seem a little weak with all the posturing.
Strong leaders negotiating from a position of strength wouldn't be coming out with all the sound bite nonsense she is.
I may of course be wrong - I often am.
Problem is she is doing it to the electorate not to those she must negotiate withMrs May is simply objection handling in advance of the deal
When the other side claim you are delusional and in a different galaxy then you have overplayed this somewhat
As noted above her strategy seems to be demand the impossible, anatagonise the negotiators and then say she will be just as difficult in the negotiations
I am not seeing it as the best move when its you v 27 . Bridges need to be built, common ground sought, mutual respect dealt and consensus to get an agreement
Does anyone see this in May - she wont face the electorate whilst campaigning only Tories and she is scared to debate Corbyn. Given she is not displaying much faith in her abilities why should we?
She is a weak leader Junkyard. Once that is accepted everything else makes sense.
No, it's all going to be perfect, really it is, trust me.
Just how strong is the french farming lobby?
Your a French farmer, why would you even consider a transition deal that helps a British farmer? Any transition deal is reliant on goodwill from the EU which means European electorates and there concerns matter.
12% WTO tarrif on wheat + loss of subsidies, cant see any farmer being able to export much wheat!
where did we get on lamb 😉
Yanis on 5 live. He's clearly got an axe to grind, but is making a few interesting comments on how the negotiations may go, or not go.
EU Draft Negotiating Mandate - just published.
[url= https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/annex-recommendation-uk-eu-negotiations_3-may-2017_en.pdf ]https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/annex-recommendation-uk-eu-negotiations_3-may-2017_en.pdf[/url]
Now [i]that's[/i] a mandate! Anybody got a link to the Government's mandate? No?
Ever feel the grown ups are on the eu side?
We have our own grown ups, but they're increasingly sidelined.
Interesting to see the EU has prepared a nice document setting out objectives, I thought the Brexiters were in charge so i really don't know why the EU have the cheek to think that they can set the agenda....
And we all know the eu doc is a typical tyrinical bully technique used to try and intimidate the UK into accepting defeat. Dont they know we have trident
edit: wrong thread, haha
Rumour has it at [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39789903 ]BBC[/url] that EU bureaucrats are demanding £84 billion ransom from UK for wanting out from their club.
For that money UK could easily buy 3 Nimitz-Class aircraft carriers costing US$4.5 billion to $6.2 billion each, to make up 3 powerful fleets (including other ships, plane, subs etc) ... just in case we have to defend against EU bureaucratic invasion. The we all become sailors ...
😆
Read the eu exit doc, it's. Really informative for the trolls
mikewsmith - Member
Read the eu exit doc, it's. Really informative for the trolls
In an "unlikely" scenario ... What if UK does not want to pay instead join forces with USA & Russia and become very friendly with China ... and also India & Commonwealth nations again ... what can EU bureaucrats do? 😆
Or use the £84 billion to dismantle EU bureaucratic system. 😛
Or invest £84 billion into the head of nations i.e. we can create 84 nations that support us ... 84 billionaires. 😈
£84 billion ransom
It's not ransom. But idiot leavers will call it that. They don't seem able to make a good argument so are resorting to hysteria.
It's funny laughing at the leavers though, with their panicky attempts to talk tough.
#strongly stable
@molgrips I read the Law Lords report, suggest you do the same.
Happy 65th Malcolm 🙂
https://mobile.twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/859704369188614144/video/1
A ranty Brexit voting OAP, well I never !!
Deluded...
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10154515365681200&id=371509533894&fs=1
@Chewk, the Indians asked for more student visa's in return for a deal, May said no. Infact the EU negotiations have long been stalled because the UK wouldn't budge on that.
Of course it is a ransom, no surprise there coz everyone knows that's what EU bureaucrats want to cover themselves for their retirements. 😆molgrips - Member
£84 billion ransom
It's not ransom. But idiot leavers will call it that. They don't seem able to make a good argument so are resorting to hysteria.
If only the EU bureaucrats know how to beg or learn to beg for the left over they might at least get something out of the transition. They need to be polite and humble to beg UK for the money. 😆igm - Member
It's funny laughing at the leavers though, with their panicky attempts to talk tough.#strongly stable
Ya, don't get too excited over that coz that's a non-issue, £1 Billion will sort everything out easily ... Guarantee. Anyone says otherwise is lying ... 😛mrmo - Member
@Chewk, the Indians asked for more student visa's in return for a deal, May said no. Infact the EU negotiations have long been stalled because the UK wouldn't budge on that.
Chewk is a great believer in the BREXIT BURAEUCRACY as we are directed to recreate all the bodies we are leaving
Of course it is a ransom, no surprise there coz everyone knows that's what EU bureaucrats want to cover themselves for their retirements.
We're breaking a deal. Do you think EE will let me walk away from my phone contract if I cancel early?
Of course it is a ransom
So if we refuse to pay then will they keep us in the EU against our will?
They need to be polite and humble to beg UK for the money.
But I thought they had kidnapped us? Why would they beg hostages for ransom money?