[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

jambalaya - Member
Edukator I assume you are aware of the rumours he's gay and his boyfriend runs the paper that broke the Penelope Fillion story ? Doesn't matter to me fyi

If you see a sprat (fish) you know it is fishy ... 😆

An interesting read.

[url= https://newrepublic.com/article/142110/rise-jean-luc-melenchon-frances-post-democracy ]Continuer tout droit[/url]

Did we get this already?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/04/24/marine-le-pen-temporarily-steps-down-as-front-national-leader-to_a_22053912/?utm_hp_ref=au-now

Le Pen said tonight:

“I have always considered that the president is the president of all the French. Under this banner, he or she must unite all the French.

“Tonight, I am no longer the president of the Front National. I am the presidential candidate.”

“I will be above partisan considerations.”

Dear me, Jamba. How is life in Internet gutter? You spend your time on this thread either making stuff up or repeating stuff other people have made up. A link is the minimum requirement when posting libelous comments. When there's a problem (in this case false news on the Net) try not to be a part of it.

I fail to see the problem with Le Pen's declaration about being a presidential candidate rather than FN president for the next 10 days. After that she'll either be president or return to being FN president.

Edukator I assume you are aware of the rumours he's gay and his boyfriend runs the paper that broke the Penelope Fillion story ? Doesn't matter to me fyi

I think there's likely to be a fair amount of artificial rumour generation going on right now.

Re: Visas for overseas workers

Having just started the process of recruiting someone from a non-EU country who needs a tier 2 visa to perform a skilled job for 3 years in the UK I can confidently state that anyone who thinks that this is a good and sensible way of getting skilled people with talents we require into the country is a complete f**** imbecile.

It is ludicrously expensive for a person to bear the costs themselves, time consuming and bordering on hostile.

If this is what we will have to do for the rEU as well once we leave then we are screwed (apart from HR departments which will likely have to treble in size to deal with the visa applications).

Although it is a remarkably good way of keeping johnny foreigner out of blighty. But, even though it is a clusterf of epic proportions, "we" are in control of it. Which is all that matters it would appear.

Dear me, Jamba. How is life in Internet gutter? You spend your time on this thread either making stuff up or repeating stuff other people have made up. A link is the minimum requirement when posting libelous comments.

His denial was [url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/07/emmanuel-macron-laughs-gay-affair-rumours/ ]widely reported[/url] so I think you are being abit unfair. Although Jamba is wrong on the alleged other party, he works in Radio rather than for a satirical mag.

Shackleton - Member

It is ludicrously expensive for a person to bear the costs themselves, time consuming and bordering on hostile.

No "bordering on", I've banged on about this but the UK visa process is specifically designed to mess with people. There's a constant undercurrent of changing rules and regs, often applied retrospectively or without notice, or guidance, or spellchecking.

So example- you phone up the UKVI and say:

"Hey, this rule's unclear, can you tell us how to interpret it?"
"You're right, the rule is unclear, we don't really know the answer ourselves"
"Dude, it's your rule"
"I know! Crazy eh"
"You know we're actually paying for this premium advice service"
"Yep. Mugs. You literally help pay the wages of the people whose job it is to keep your perfectly legit students out of the country"
"Cheers, you're doing a great job of that. Anyway, we have this guy who wants to pay us tens of thousands of quid in order to come and study here, and he needs this cleared up, what should we tell him"
"Oh, tell him just to fill it in however seems best"
"Jesus, really? What if he does it wrong?"
"Well we'll not give him clearance and he won't be allowed in the country"
"But you said you don't know what the correct answer is, so how can he do it wrong?"
"We'll decide that when we get the application"
"Can he appeal?"
"Yes. But any appeal won't take effect til after his course has started so it'll be useless"
"His course starts in 3 months, how long does it take to appeal?"
"Usually about 5 minutes. But there's a 4 month waiting list"

If I was your student I'd study elsewhere. Stupid little country.

But I have to ask: if immigration procedures are so Kafkaesque, how come we still get around a quarter million non-EU immigrants a year?

The Macron rumour is pretty much public knowledge in France (privacy laws mean the oress can't write about it much like Hollande's late night scooter trips whilst spendi g €500,000 a year keeping his first lady/girlfriend at the Elysee).

Shackleton how on earth does the rest of the world manage not being in the EU ? I believe I am correct in saying that Indians represpent the nunber 1 nation getting US work visas most going to work in tech in California. Its generally a key visa application test that suitable skills don't exist in the country or are in short supply. Seems sensible to me.

@matt have a look at world's top Unis, dominated by UK and US. Demand for places is going to keep increasing. The Indians and Chinese don't give a toss about Brexit in fact its likley to make things easier for them.

Another misleading post from you Jamba.

Over three years Julie Gayet cost the state 1 200 000 euros, nearly all of which was police protection and nothing to do with keeping her at the Elysée. [url= http://info24.fr/julie-gayet-a-coute-plus-cher-penelope-fillon-aux-contribuables/ ]Info 24[/url] The press did write about the scooter trips, that's how we know about them. The important thing being that it was fact not rumour/fiction/lies.

Most of the citizens of the rest of the world envie the standard of life within the EU and manage rather worse.

Being in the EU has benefited the UK's university system as the university types who post on this thread have pointed out. I'll follow the rankings with interest in the year post Brexit.

mattjg - Member

But I have to ask: if immigration procedures are so Kafkaesque, how come we still get around a quarter million non-EU immigrants a year?

An organised resistance movement, essentially. Every university puts huge efforts and resources into protecting their applicants and their interests, there's also various 3rd parties- agents, UCAS, the British Council, the Scottish Government, Study Group and Kaplan and the like, lots of information sharing and work with overseas governments and the like. Students often pay a small fortune to third parties to get them through the application.

If there's ever a revolution in this country we should get the tier 4 compliance managers to lead it, they have the relevant experience.

Yeah - but all the quarter million a year are students? Nah.

Oh, no, the visa bullshittery I'm talking about is specific for tier 4s, svvs and atas. I don't know anything about professional visas, dependents etc. I guarantee it'll all be bollocks though

Can confirm that its much quicker, cheaper and requires far less red tape to recruit from within the EU, than outside

That doesnt mean we dont recruit from outside the EU, we look to recruit the best, its just that visas from the USA, Malaysia, China (those i have experience with recently) cost around 5grand iirc and take longer to sort out

but if Brexit is about one thing its about more bureaucracy and putting up barriers with our nearest neighbours

Over three years Julie Gayet cost the state 1 200 000 euros, nearly all of which was police protection and nothing to do with keeping her at the Elysée.

It is pretty obvious he was referring to Valerie Trierweiler when discussing cost.

If it had been obvious I wouldn't have thought Julie Gayet who has shared François Hollande's life for the last three years. It was highly unobvious Jamba was referring to Valerie Trierweiler especially as he didn't name her but did mention the scooter saga which was Julie Gayet.

If it had been obvious I wouldn't have thought

I have noticed you often get the wrong end of the stick so I don't think this follows at all.

And you leap to Jamba's defense whatever ambiguous, inaccurate or misleading stuff he writes, Mefty.

Edit: it takes a few seconds to check Jamba's 500 000e figure for keeping Valerie Trierweiler at the Elysée if he is referring to her. It's higher than any figure I can find - even those that include her travel on official humanitarian missions (83 000e for 2013), security and the cost of civil servants working on her official programme.

I thought it was clear I was referring to Valerie T, she lived at the Elysee whereas Gayer never did. That would be very much known to you Edukator as you live in France. Valerie T had a staff of 5 as the official "first lady" all whilst Hollande was scootering around late at night.

As I said I'll wager you (a case of Medoc/simple recoltant Burgandy ?) that absolutely no charges are brought against Fillion or his wife. None. Political dirty tricks played by Macron and his friends and sponsors in Hollande's party. Fillion was leading the polls ahead of Le Pen when this story "broke"

Edukator you are well aware of how much Hollande soent on his hairdresser, just imagine a staff of 5 for Valerie keeping the bef warm whilst Francois was out and about.

The great crime for France is Macron is going to be a photocopy of Hollande in terms of economics and general policy. It was after all his policies which Hollande turned to after his own where a disaster.

I assume you watched the TF1 Eysee 2017 programme tonight, as I will always admit my understanding is limited for live broadcasts as they are too fast for me but Le Pen was spot on to stress that the official 10% unemployment rate is fake, in reality its much higher than that. Macron is economically "more of the same"

More libelous comments with no link, Jamba.

However, Fillon paid his wife to be his assistante parliamentaire while she declared that she had never been her husbands assistant. We've all seen the video and the proof thanks to national TV. Fillon declared he would step down if "mis en examen" but didn't step down when he was "mis en examen". At that point he lost what little credibility he had left.

Jupé or Baroin might well have made it to the second round if the Républicains had opted for a plan B but they followed Fillon over the cliff.

i found work in less than 3 weeks, to start in july .

in the meantime I am temping , working all this week , putting voting slips in boxes . Macron this morning , Lepen this afternoon .

there is work in France if you want it . but there is also a whole industry dedicated to those 10% unemployed .

Blaming on foreigners is typical Lepen . same as her dad really .

Juppe would have won easily .

I bet it is the last time they do primaires as it has gone very wrong . 😆

More libelous comments with no link

[url= https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/ ]Link[/url]

Yup, we watched Marine who failed to answer most of the questions the journalists asked and was shown to be plain wrong on several points, notably the first point of her programme on the Euro.

As for "more of the same", Marine was critical of him for being too economically liberal and said that there would be a radical economic liberalisation that would be disastrous - your heroine clearly disagrees with you.

Le Pen was spot on to stress that the official 10% unemployment rate is fake, in reality its much higher than that.

That sounds oddly familiar.

[i]"Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. As high as 35 — as in fact, I heard recently, 42 percent."[/i] -- [url= https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/10/19-times-trump-called-the-jobs-numbers-fake-before-they-made-him-look-good/ ]Trump on US Employment[/url]

Worked for him I guess. (Despite being [url= http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/30/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-unemployment-rate-may-be-42-perc/ ]very obviously bollocks[/url])

And you leap to Jamba's defense whatever ambiguous, inaccurate or misleading stuff he writes, Mefty.

Today maybe, but as Scarlett O'Hara said "tomorrow is another day", I don't find it particularly difficult to find subjects I disagree with him on. But as I said on the other thread, I don't think he is any worse than many other posters, although I think he should post less. Quality rather than quality is a good adage.

But in this case there was no ambiguity, as Jamba reminds you above, Hollande has had only had one official First Lady and that was Trierweiler.

But "girlfriend" implied Gayet rather than Trierweiller who was always his "compagne" rather than "petite amie". Gayet was the only one referred to a as "petite amie (de l'ombre)".

But he was on his scooter going to see his "petite amie" so she clearly can be eliminated from our enquiries.

You can, I can't the syntax doesn't allow me to.

€500,000 a year keeping his first lady/girlfriend at the Elysee).

Whichever lady is referred to the 500 000e figure is plain wrong. The total cost of Valerie was less than that and when you deduct the cost of her humanitarian missions and official programme the cost of keeping her at the Elysée was a fraction of that.

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/valerie-trierweiler-spent-more-than-previously-thought-francois-hollande ]Official audit says otherwise according to guardian (does include travel)[/url]

"server not found"

Travel on her humanitarian missions was most definitely not part of keeping her at the Elysée and should not be included.

You'll note Jamba isn't trying to defend the figure, he knows it's wrong - he rounded up and changed what it referred to and he knows it..

works now

Le Pen was spot on to stress that the official 10% unemployment rate is fake, in reality its much higher than that.

next thing youll be saying that the UKs record unemployment figures mask huge levels of underemployment contributing to our productivity gap....

That Guardian article gives a figure lower than 500 000e for one year even when you include travel and security during travel and staff working on official business for just one year 2013. Jamba says "a year" for "first lady/girlfriend" which means over several years which would have to include the Gayet period.

€500,000 a year keeping his first lady/girlfriend at the Elysee

Whichever way you look at it Jamba's statement is wrong, as in false, incorrect, higher than the real figure.

Jamba says "a year" for "first lady/girlfriend" which means over several years

No it doesn't it just means the annual cost while she was around. Yes the figure is slightly less than EUR 500K, but as noted in the article does not include the cost of her four bodyguards nor any allocation for her use of office space. These two items would easily take the number above EUR 500 K so Jamba was a bit on the low side.

keeping his first lady/girlfriend at the Elysee

That's what Jamba is talking about the cost of, nothing more nothing less.

Sleep tight.

doesn't matter. like the £350million, just think of a number and it'll keep getting talked about.
now jamba. any comment on the 25% uplift in cost for my customer under wto vs another within the eu? or is this just another inconvenient fact you'd rather ignore?

All the inconvienient facts will be ignored. Like those who might vote Le Pen because they like her approach now she is trying not to associate as much with facists and nazi's and as previously posted the very real change the FN were defrauding the state in a massive and centrally organised way.
The whataboutery is still at a huge level in the world.

This export bonanza, caused by the drop in the value of the [s]country[/s] pound, where is it?

Had a mooch but it's been a long time since i did any economics and the stuff from the OFS suggests (to me) that it's not happened, but i could be just looking at the graphs upside down.

Does anyone know? Is the UK now shuttling tea and cakes to Johnny Furener in unimaginably copious quantities?

As an update: Everyones favourite former Tory leadership contender Michael Gove is being interviewed on Five Live. He's saying that when he said £350 million a week. It'll probably actually be £100 million.

He's not saying where he's getting his figures, but as he's a [s]shameless snivelling, lying, self-serving little cockweasel[/s] honourable, intelligent and honest man, who has been a font of truth throughout, so I'm sure he's right.

You really would never tire of punching him, would you?

[img] [/img]

This export bonanza, caused by the drop in the value of the country pound, where is it?

[url= https://order-order.com/2017/02/21/uk-food-and-drink-exports-hit-all-time-high/ ]Exports [/url]are doing very well, growth in most sectors.

Who is benefitting from this "export bonanza"?

Large corporations who don't pay tax?

Powerful and detailed data on that site, mefty. That will certainly silence those that doubted the cash-u-copia of exports would off-set the "imported" inflation.

The fact that "UK exports of salmon to France up by 31%" "last year" (page dated 21st Feb 2017) is a devastating blow to the remoaners.

Taken a weight of me, that data has.

More millions in the freedom bank, every day.

EDIT: the sort of thing i was hoping for is like [url= https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp ]this[/url]

To me, the BoP does look like it moved favorably from S^^^ to just cack, in the last Q of 2016, but its been a long time since school. Interested to see if it continues to "improve" as other stuff on ONS suggests it's not going so chirpy for Q1 this year.

The fact that "UK exports of salmon to France up by 31%" "last year" (page dated 21st Feb 2017) is a devastating blow to the remoaners.

The only difference Brexit has made to that is the GBP value we get, not the appetite to sell it to France. The rise is more down to poor market prices the prior year than any Brexit revival.

Brexit isn't looking good for us right now.

[img] ?s=uktbttex&v=201704131728t&d1=20120101&d2=20171231[/img]

Clearer on this Tradin Economics/ONS graph

Can we see that chart in $ ?

Or in Intl$ ?

Pound has dropped in value, so even if level of exports stayed exactly the same their value in GBP would go up.

Clearer on this Tradin Economics/ONS graph

Looks clear that the post-vote pound nose-dive made foreign currency receipts convert to more Sterling, yes.

edit:as pointed out by 2 other people (so far) above

Thank you mefty, but is that goods and services - is there a link for more context? ("no reporting without context")

So British exports measured in pound have risen, by not as much as the pound has fallen.

[url= https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/09/uk-trade-deficit-widens-september-exports-fall-pound-drop ]A more reliable source than Mefty's order-order.[/url]

It's going down on the graph and seems to end before 2017. Where are the current figures?

Those are the latest figures on that site: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports (select 5yr and Spline for mefty's chart)

There is a bit more here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade

we are just about to start a large scale cancer genetics study

over a 1million sequencing budget is huge for us,
trouble is we can now afford to do 15% less sequencing than we planned on, to try and keep the power we'd like

weve been getting quotes from all over the place- literally, it now looks like rather than using institutes in london, cambridge or edinburgh as wed planned, we will have to collaborate with a large chinese institution who want scientific credit in the study, we will have to be very careful with the contract!

Trouble is almost everything we buy has risen by a similar amount, so we are having to look at everything very carefully
But at least we are finding ways round the brexit pounding of the pound

the worry is how much lower is it going to go?

Exports are ok because the global economy, and the EU are ticking along ok, therefore keeping demand high not because the UK has boosted it's desirability as a country to trade with...

The people I know who voted out are all, at various times, grasping hold of all kinds of random proof points to try and make their case, rather than admit they may have made a poor decision. Unfortunately, because the quality and reliable data sources contradict their beliefs, all they have to show for it is lousy stuff like that link above, or just wild, subjective claims...

I went to an Experian seminar yesterday where a team of senior economists gave us a data-driven analysis of the UK economy and the impact of Brexit - which was a) well-sourced and b) bearish - negative impacts from imported inflation and reduced immigration especially. Their case was about as well-informed and compelling as you can get...

So what does my idiot Brexit-voting boss say when she gets back to the office (in a company which is officially and publicly pro-Remain and stands to suffer quite seriously from Brexit)? "I disagreed with their view on Brexit"... like she thinks her judgement exceeds the informed view of experienced professional analysts! Shockingly stupid, and too stupid to keep quiet about it...

grasping hold of all kinds of random proof points to try and make their case

The Remain camp is just as guilty of this I think.

(speaking as a Remainer myself)

The Remain camp is just as guilty of this I think.

(speaking as a Remainer myself)

Yes - as is the case in every argument - but in this specific debate, Remainers didn't make some massive decision impacting the whole country both now and in the future on the back of spurious evidence, plus ALL the well-informed sources suggest that Brexit will have a negative impact and is already doing so... there simply isn't any compelling evidence to support the Leave case, only sentiment...

For e.g. my boss could only refute Experian's view with 'I think', she doesn't have an alternative data-based analysis - because there isn't one to support her position...

Confirmation bias innit.

ALL the well-informed sources

This isn't true at all - there are some very good economists on the leave side, such as Gerald Lyons, Patrick Minford etc. Patrick Minford's analysis of trade is fascinating and completely counter intuitive - whether he is right is another matter.

The down slope re exports seems to be common at beginning of year, unlike most ONS figures these are not seasonally adjusted.

So Putin reckons lepen is a safer bet than Trump...

[url=
https://www.ft.com/content/ae05ff5e-29a4-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7 ]Russian hackers targeting Emmanuel Macron, cyber experts warn[/url]

Brexit has been a big win for Vladimir so helping lepen obvious next step

mefty - Member

ALL the well-informed sources

This isn't true at all - there are some very good economists on the leave side, such as Gerald Lyons, Patrick Minford etc. Patrick Minford's analysis of trade is fascinating and completely counter intuitive - whether he is right is another matter.

These people seem to think he isn't right:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexiteers-economists-for-brexit-patrick-minford-study-doubly-misleading-eu-uk-trade-deal-tariff-a7691271.html

Professor Winters also points out that the modelling of Minford’s group bizarrely assumes the EU will waive its standards on goods imports from the UK post-Brexit, which implies precisely the sort of deep trade deal which the Economists for Brexit have been consistently arguing that the UK does not need to bother pursuing.

To be fair, we'll keep following EU standards deal or no deal… manufacturers will be in no rush to let the UK 'take back control' on standards, and the government would have to be nuts to create divergence.

but TNUMTWNT?

[url= https://www.ft.com/content/b950b28c-2a9e-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c ]Deutsche Bank executive warns thousands of UK roles at Brexit risk
Lender’s head of regulation says 4,000 staff could be forced to relocate[/url]

These people seem to think he isn't right:

Of course, but that is because he does not use the "gravity" model of world trade which many others are using as he does not think it works for a change which involves a big shock in trade terms. He explains it all in his papers as well as the significance of the other areas where he has been criticised. As I said I don't know whether he is right, but it is always interesting to read someone who approaches an issue from a completely different angle.

This export bonanza, caused by the drop in the value of the country pound, where is it?

As above the news has been prettybpositive and of course wildy better than the predicted Armageddon. IMF recently upgraded global growth despite originally predicting a global recession post Brexit. None of that is good enough for Remainers though.

Kimbers Deutsche is in free fall, it was one of the banks most active in US sub-prime.

Kimbers of course Putin is enjoying Brexit, the EU has had a massive political agenda to expand Eastwards accepting membership from very poor nations in order to weaken Russia. The US and UK can't do much on Russian sanctions as we do so little business with them unlike the broader EU, the sanctions on Russia have been very painful and Putin is hoping to use EU weakness to soften the (flakey) resolve of Germany to wind back sanctions. Of course the EU was a key player in antagonising Russia over Ukraine.

Just in case it has slipped anyone's mind, we are not post-Brexit, we haven't left yet. EU trade agreements are still in place.

As above the news has been prettybpositive

#jambafact

Might be good for the IT industry as there is plenty of skill here, now it's 10% cheaper.

How much of that IT skill is migrant labour?

I'll except "shit loads" as an answer, if the figures are hard to pin down.

At least Orange 5s will seem competitively priced soon

Depends what you mean by migrant. Immigrant, yes - itinerant, not much.

Comment on farming from a few pages back. My view but will defer to posters like Welsh who are "in the business"

WTO Tariffs are protectionist for farming. There are well established and good reasons for this which I support. As a food exporter a country like France wants tariff free access to export markets. As a food net importer countries like the UK would find WTO protects our farmers in general. Now higher food prices are inflationary and controversial but the UK would be free to agree reduced tariff deals with whom we choose.

In particular in reference to France the farmers are pretty confrontational and powerful, blocking roads etc. WTO tariffs on food with the UK would lead to a lot of trouble and farmers have already thrown eggs at Macron and feel he is no friend of theirs. There is plenty of tension already with cheap EU imports of low quality food with final processing in France and re-labelled as French

A quick comment on French election / Le Pen. Very amusing yesterday as Macron had a meeting with "the management" of the Whirlpool factory threatened with closure in the North of France, Marine's home turf. She turned up on the picket line to stand with "the workers" whilst ex-banker Macron is inside with the suits, she of course stole all the headlines 🙂

WTO Tariffs are protectionist for farming

Aren't EU ones?

Are you aware that a lot of what we want to eat won't grow in this country?

Are you also aware that if farmers can get higher prices for their food, that's going to be us paying for it? So food prices will rise?

U.K. Regrets Brexit for First Time Since Referendum, Poll Says...

[url= https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-27/u-k-regrets-brexit-for-first-time-since-referendum-poll-says ]YouGov[/url]

U.K. Regrets Brexit for First Time Since Referendum, Poll Says...

Which is still in the margin of error, and really hasn't moved much since the referendum. What is shows though, despite what May et al may claim there is no coming together. There is no acceptance that it is the right thing to do.

A soft exit, ie looking to Norway or Switzerland might have been a way of uniting a majority but the car crash that is unfolding....

The EU set out its position days after the referendum, the UK stil hasn't got a clue IMO. WTO rules here we come and how long till the IMF comes back around?

It's remarkable that May keeps repeating that the UK is coming together, as though her wishes might actually make it a reality.

Who does she think she is kidding?
The vitrol on social media only send to have got worse!

The vitrol on social media only send to have got worse!

The results in various elections and referendums have shown that social media is a useless indicator of public sentiment.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39730326

Going peachy then......

I see the Tour de Yorkshire is on this weekend. I note that our future Yorkshire prime minister Gary Verity is involved. So it will be renamed the Freedom Tour de Yorkshire.