[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

he's really a one man band

no the FN are not happy enough . they were hopping for a lot more . the have been ahead in the polls for along time .

I doubt the Melenchon voters will vote FN .

if Macron wins , a lot of people are going to join his movement . my local mp , a Fillon follower , has not mentioned Fillo once in the past few weeks .
I am certain he will join Macron , and he wont be the only one .

Fillon has called on his supporters to back Macron in round two hasn't he cchris2lou? And Melenchon has said he doesn't support either of the two.

Snap ipsos poll: Macron 62% LePen 38%

UK: Brexit
USA: "Hold my beer..."
France: "Tenez mon vin..."

😀

I'm just here to laugh at sbob.

kelvin - Member

I'm just here to laugh at sbob.

Still nothing to add?

With all that hot air I'm moving my portfolio into balloons! 🙂

[IMG] [/IMG]

Try imagining we're speaking face to face.
Can you see how silly it would be to not actually offer an opinion or counter? 💡

Why don't you sleep on it. 🙂

deadlydarcy - Member
Fillon has called on his supporters to back Macron in round two hasn't he cchris2lou? And Melenchon has said he doesn't support either of the two.

Snap ipsos poll: Macron 62% LePen 38%

I am hoping all the candidates will support Macron.

The more Trump supports Lepen, the more votes she looses.

hard to know how Macron will handle Brexit if/when he wins

Do you read or follow any news coverage ?

he favours a hard brexit and labelled leaving a crime. Everyone knows his position but you apparently

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/24/french-presidential-favourite-emmanuel-macron-hard-bargain-brexit-talks
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/774389/French-Presidential-candidate-Emmanuel-Macron-Theresa-May-Brexit-France-Britain-EU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/21/french-presidential-hopeful-emmanuel-macron-meets-theresa-may/

60/40 is indeed the expected result in Macron's favour. Fillion was quite clear he would vote for Macron to keep out Le Pen, as we all said eariler it will be a big tactical vote [b]against[/b] Le Pen not [b]for[/b] Macron.

IMO Macron will simply deliver more of the (failed) same as the Socialists. He will do nothing to take on Unions or modernise France's Labour laws. Unemployment will continue to be very high especially amongst the young. He will not back a hard-Brexit as that will be a disaster for French farmers and car manufacturers (who are close to bust), he will not want the civil unrest.

European stock markets approve of the result it seems

How many times does he need to say hard brexit before you believe him?

If you deny it enough then it will happen or something like that, or you can reference yourself etc.

The very nature of the system leads to a for or against outcome. As the others did not get close you have to pick from a list of 2. How you decide is up to you but he came out ahead of all the others in round 1 and has the broader appeal (ie he is not a fascist surrounding himself with other fascists)

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I think I'll prefer the original 🙂

@welsh yes, nightmare scenario for EU of Le Pen / Melechon final two averted. As an ex-member of Hollande's Government people expect "more of the same" from Macron and that's something the markets can plan for.

He will not back a hard-Brexit as that will be a disaster for French farmers and car manufacturers (who are close to bust), he will not want the civil unrest.

But you back a hard Brexit despite the damage to UK farmers and car manufacturing?

But you back a hard Brexit despite the damage to UK farmers and car manufacturing?

TNUMTWNT! 😀

French car manufacturer close to bust ?

PSA have just bought Opel, and Renault Mitsubishi.

They get help from French government but it works for everybody.

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/22/dont-believe-theresa-may-election-wont-change-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard ]A piece by Guy in Saturday's Grauniad.[/url]

Not a long read, so Brexiters might manage it in two attempts 😉 etc. But I liked this paragraph:

What has been billed as a “Brexit election” is an attempted power grab by the Tories, who wish to take advantage of a Labour party in seeming disarray to secure another five years of power before the reality of Brexit bites. Will the election of more Tory MPs give May a greater chance of securing a better Brexit deal? For those sitting around the table in Brussels, this is an irrelevance. British officials will represent the people of the UK in the negotiations, regardless of the number of Tory MPs.

Good lord Jamba, big shark jumped there. Shocked at you.

What has been billed as a “Brexit election” is an attempted power grab by the Tories, who wish to take advantage of a Labour party in seeming disarray to secure another five years of power before the reality of Brexit bites. Will the election of more Tory MPs give May a greater chance of securing a better Brexit deal? For those sitting around the table in Brussels, this is an irrelevance. British officials will represent the people of the UK in the negotiations, regardless of the number of Tory MPs.

Yeah pretty much what I expected.

EU have said they will deal with whoever is the government, that's it really, it's just a job.

It's our side that are pitching it as gladiatorial combat, old simmering enmities (centuries old no less) reignited.

A pretty good summary imo that with no Party behind him it's not claer what sort of Government Macron (if/when elected) could form and what he could axhieve.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39689191

That's the inevitable result of an "anti-establishment" vote, no Jambalaya?

Le Pen only has two MPs, so faces the same issue if she wins… in fact I'd wager she'd find it harder to work with MPs not from her own party than he will.

If the people of France want a government drawn from candidates not tied to the two establishment parties, they'll have to vote for MPs that support that. More than the President needs to change, and that's down to voters.

Back to Brexit… are you still gung-ho for a WTO rules hard Brexit, yet excepting that it'll hit farmers and car plants hard on both sides of the channel? Lose-lose?

Yes it's nowhere near in the bag, and it's a shame to see France so divided. (FAO Mrs May, just like our country).

I saw an interesting tweet asking if there was a movement back from left vs right to more historical conservative/nationalist and centre/optimist.

[img] [/img]

Look at those two flags behind him...must have wound you and this missus right up jamba.

It's OK, our Nige is on it.

https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/856242373483008001

France divided? France this, France that.

When was a country ever united in choosing a leader? Korea, Iraq, Libya - that's right, countries with sham democracy. In real democracies people vote according to their interests and views - which aren't identical so you have multiple divisions. But we aren't exactly in a civil war.

There were about 20 of us in the room at vote counting with the main factions represented. Everyone was interested in the results but I didn't hear any derogatory comments about the candidates and those who voted for them.

If you are worried by Le Pen, read her programme. A lot less nationalistic, inward-looking, anti-Europe, right wing... than May and Co.

And don't forget that à lot of people vote FN as a protest in the first round.

And as i said earlier, a lot of mp from every side will join Macron.

I saw one newspapers headline saying that for the first time youngster had the vote they wanted.

Strong mandate my arse:

[img] [/img]

[url= https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856474258930905088/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Fbrexit-latest-news-opposition-remain-record-high-poll-snap-general-election-theresa-may-a7699321.html ]Tweet[/url]

France divided? France this, France that.

I take division in this sense to mean the electorate evenly balanced on a specific binary issue.

Would be great to see a young politician here come and energise the youth vote, especially in light of the oldies shafting them with their brexit

So on that basis what divides France, Mattjq? Male/Female and ?

To be fair many brexit voters don't know how to use a computer so if that pole is internet based they would be exculded.

If you are worried by Le Pen, read her programme. A lot less nationalistic, inward-looking, anti-Europe, right wing... than May and Co.

While I agree with you there, FN has a history that can not be ignored. Le Pen has moved the polices of her party away from where it was, but the suspicion of most people over here in the UK is that is just about making her party appear more electable, not a rejection of an agenda historically far too close to the darkest chapter in European politics. Interesting that for a large chunk of French voters the party isn't seen this way.

History unlearnt?

Strong mandate my arse:

That's why there is a snap election… that fragile wafer thin mandate could will be eroded by 2020… so having elections now and in 2022 is much safer for May & Co.

To be fair many brexit voters don't know how to use a computer so if that pole is internet based they would be exculded.

Coming over here, stealing our bandwidth...

France is not divided... Predictions gives Macron 61% and Le Pen 39% of the votes in the 2nd election.

They get help from French government

and via Chinese too. My point exactly.

Chris its just like those high speed trains they bought to keep the favtory open, except there aren't the tracks yet to run them on. It's just another huge state bailout

@google 40% of the country is expected to be voting FN despite all the establishment labelling them as extreme right. Nearly 50% voted that way in Austria and 30% in Holland. UKIP get 12% - imagine UKIP on 30-50% ?

Think about that - 40% are likely to vote FN despite all the insults and name calling

So on that basis what divides France, Mattjq? Male/Female and ?

Near equal Le Pen/Macron vote.

But I'm happy to be wrong if I'm wrong.

despite all the establishment labelling them as extreme right

The party labelled themselves this.
Their current leader is working hard to counteract this.
The label didn't come from the "establishment", but from the facist and Vichy remnants that founded the party.

Macron will make France a bigger dog's dinner. What a silly goose. 😆

Oh oh ... has he got any political experience? 😯

Spoke too soon innit ... 😆

@dd no surpise to see Macron standing in front of an EU flag. My wife spends about as much time listening to Macron as I do to Strugeon and the SNP - hint hardly at all

I do laugh once again at the macron the progressive comments ... ex banker, millionaire, Trojan Horse stalker, finance minister in the failed Hollande Government but somehow the Messiah 🙂

So, you two, is he an ex-minister and a Trojan horse for the establishment, or without any politcial experience?

kelvin - Member
So, you two, is he an ex-minister and a Trojan horse for the establishment, or without anypolitcial exoericence?

A 39 year old to be the next French President ... 😮
You might as well have a 21 year old be your guide to life ... silly goose. 😆

Cameron was leader at 39, PM at 43.

For **** sake, I replied to the random word generator. I need better filters.

Not sure Cameron's a good example of a good leader

kelvin - Member
Cameron was leader at 39, PM at 43.

I have to thank him. 😛

igm - Member
Not sure Cameron's a good example of a good leader

Please ignore all my replies to the one that should be ignored. Thanks.

Crikey. 😀

Chewkw - not even a good ex-PM. More your sort than mine I suspect, you old trustafarian you.

kelvin - Member

So, you two, is he an ex-minister and a Trojan horse for the establishment, or without any politcial experience?

Why not both? Remember it doesn't matter if 2 pieces of criticism are mutually contradictory as long as they both attack someone you dislike.

A 39 year old to be the next French President ...

No bad thing. Have you seen what happens when they give senile 70 year olds control of the country (and access to Twitter)? 😆

Cameron was leader at 39, PM at 43.

Theresa May: 59
David Cameron: 43
Gordon Brown: 56
Tony Blair: 43
John Major: 47
Margaret Thatcher: 53

39 is young, but not impossibly so. Justin Trudeau seems to be world's darling at the moment and he was sworn in at 43.

(Edit: Le Pen is 48 by the way)

Learning the hard way again Kelvin 😉

GrahamS - Member
Theresa May: 59
David Cameron: 43
Gordon Brown: 56
Tony Blair: 43
John Major: 47
Margaret Thatcher: 53

Do you see the correlation in the age group you listed?

Tony Blair - made some world shattering decisions that affect the world.

David Cameron - created the domino effect on EU.

John Major - World Shattering ... eerrmmm ... hang on ... what did he do? Age must be catching up after 45 ... 😆

The rest normal ...

38 is young, but not impossibly so. Justin Trudeau seems to be world's darling at the moment and he was sworn in at 43.

come on. Chewkw is fun. Possibly a misguided little lamb who shouldn't be allowed out without supervision, but fun.

we have very different definitions of fun and you can look fwd to 2 years of fun at work 😉

TBH i have not read his posts for ages and i found them long, incomprehensible and i struggled to see if any point was being made never mind answer it

I very much doubt he has started making sense but i suspect he has moderated seeing as so few bother to reply he must be doing something to keep you sweet and replying

I always suspected there was a rather intelligent person behind the facade mind

igm - Member
come on. Chewkw is fun. Possibly a misguided little lamb who shouldn't be allowed out without supervision, but fun.

" ... little lamb ..." ... Mary's little lamb? 😀

I quite like Chewkw's posts. Kind of Cpt Beefheart meets Malcom Tucker

[url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_age ]List of UK PM by age[/url] if anyone is interested.

Don't get me started on Pitt the Younger. Appointed at just 24. Looks older in his twitter bio pic though:

[img] [/img]

Kind of Cpt Beefheart meets Malcom Tucker

With a bit of [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/fastshow/characters/rowley_birkin.shtml ]Rowley Birkin QC[/url] for good measure 🙂

GrahamS - Member

List of UK PM by age if anyone is interested.

Don't get me started on Pitt the Younger. Appointed at just 24. Looks older in his twitter bio pic though:

Do you see the correlation between their PM age and lifespan? Those that became PM before 40 usually have shorter life span too ... hmmm ... 😯

With the exception of Duke of Grafton the younger they were as PM the shorter their lives tend to be ... hmmmm ... wonder why ... 😯

Assassination

Do you see the correlation between their PM age and lifespan?
With the exception of Duke of Grafton the rest do live a short live don't they? 😛

Errr... you do understand that list goes back to 1673, yes?

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-has-life-expectancy-changed-over-time/

To be fair Graham, a lot of the change in life expectancy is due to improvements in infant mortality rates.
Life expectancy for those who reach adulthood have changed far less

igm - Member
Assassination

GrahamS - Member

Do you see the correlation between their PM age and lifespan?
With the exception of Duke of Grafton the rest do live a short live don't they?

Errr... you do understand that list goes back to 1673, yes?

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-has-life-expectancy-changed-over-time/

Looking at the job, age, historical time period etc most of them did have a normal life span even by today's standard with the exception of the few young ones. 😛

Edit: Remember they might have smoked like a chimney, breath polluted air and their diet of mercury ... they lived a long life. If you do that now you will have same life span as them.

Junkyard - lazarus
I always suspected there was a rather intelligent person behind the facade mind

Anyone care to guess madame Macron's age without using Google? Hotter than any of the women half her age walking along Hinkley high street, and bright, very bright too.

63

Late forties, early fifties?

Edukator - Reformed Troll
Anyone care to guess madame Macron's age without using Google?

Some politicians are the visible half of a couple that is stronger than the sum of the parts. I put Macron in that category, Madame brings a maturity beyond his years to Macron's campaign.

"Merci à Brigitte sans laquelle je ne serais pas moi" or something to that effect yesterday.

Edukator - Reformed Troll
Some politicians are the visible half of a couple that is stronger than the sum of the parts. I put Macron in that category, Madame brings a maturity beyond his years to Macron's campaign.

I don't see it that way.

No impact whatsoever IMO of the other half because people are desperate to vote against Le Pen hence any reasonably well behaved person will get vote.

... Madame brings a maturity beyond his years to Macron's campaign.

She is 64 so if she still cannot bring maturity to him what else can she bring? 🙄

25 years his senior, first met him when he was 15 and she was his (married) teacher.

How very [i]French[/i] 😀

I do know she is about 24 years older than him as we were discussing it last night. So 63....

chewkw - Member

if she still cannot bring maturity to him what else can she bring?

Werthers Originals

Playlist!

Class dismisssssssed

Oooh a Steel Panther tribute band.

Edukator I assume you are aware of the rumours he's gay and his boyfriend runs the paper that broke the Penelope Fillion story ? Doesn't matter to me fyi

I will take a wager no formal charges are ever pressed over the Fillion "scandal" - just dirty politics

Doesn't matter to me fyi