As it stands with the £ at this level and adding worst case WTO tariffs Nissan is comfortably better off producing cars in the UK. Cost of deal therefore zero.
You want the economy to succeed, but at the same time you want the £ to stay low. Eh what? Am I missing something in my naievety?
There is a strange split between those people wanting Brexit to IMPROVE/INCREASE trade with the rest of the world, that is those that say the EU is holding us back from trading, and those that voted Leave because they feel that international trade has "left them behind" and results in a "lack of control" at the national level. I can't reconcile what these different groups of people (who voted for "the same thing") want. Can anyone help?
Should Brexit result in a rolling back, or a forward push, for globalisation?
Perhaps we need a simple poll…
1) let's trade more
2) let's trade less
Farage isn't as stupid as he looks, get Trump into power and the USA will screw up trade deals leaving the crumbs, and they're pretty big crumbs, fall into the UK's lap.
#Genius.
[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/donald-trump-china-iphone-cars-cut-trade-war-threat-us-auto-industry-a7415846.html ]“If Trump wrecks Sino-US trade, a number of US industries will be impaired. Finally the new president will be condemned for his recklessness, ignorance and incompetence,” the newspaper said.[/url]
😆
Where NAFTA and the EU have failed is the massive stretch to extend that to include countries of hugely varied wealth.
Actually Jamba I have some sympathy with that, although you still need to define what the EU is for before you can define failure. It is, and always was, a bit more useful than a mere trade deal.
The interesting bit is that, and forgive me if I have misunderstood your argument, you suggest that it is the trade deal part of it leaving the poor behind that caused the ill feeling, which of course manifests itself in the anti-immigrant, anti-foreigner stance of the leave campaign.
But that's the bit that everyone wants to keep - even you, although you suggest it will just magically work with no downside, which neither you nor I believe.
Interesting.
Where NAFTA and the EU have failed is the massive stretch to extend that to include countries of hugely varied wealth.
Counties of different wealth might specialise in different industries, or have different natural resources, or different climates, so trade agreements between them make sense, no? Why only have trade agreements with countries that are trying to grow the exact same industries as you?
The first figure I came across is[url= https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/ ] 44% of our trade is with the eu[/url]. That must mean we do 54% with the rest of the world. How many of those companies are based here due to getting access to the EU markets and the rest of the world?
It is really funny that May is pressing for free trade with the rest of the world as a solution to our problems while Trump is arguing the opposite. Who would have thought the answer to the feeling on the street that foreigners are taking our jobs would be that we want more foreigners to take our jobs. Please China dump your cheap steel on us. We don't care that it is produced using vastly cheaper labour with negligible environmental laws.
The thing about free trade is that it is not in the interest of the weaker party. Especially if we want to preserve things like environmental protection, workers rights, political rights as at the end of the day money talks.
The thing about free trade is that it is not in the interest of the weaker party.
I'm not sure that's always the case. What constitutes weaker? China was the poorer country and it's done very well out of trade. Likewise I suspect that the eastern European countries have benefitted from people coming over here to gain skills - provided they return afterwards, of course. They also get a good deal of outsourcing work sent over to them.
If one country has the money, and the other country has the skills, which one is weaker? Which one loses out?
I think the problem isn't with free trade as such, it's exploitation.
We are weaker if we want to preserve jobs, environmental protection, and employment protection and if we want to compete we must be willing to cutting costs somewhere or have a protected market.
Ideally you'd want some kind of supra-national organisation to make sure that everyone had to stick to the same rules and prevent some people under-cutting each other...
We are weaker if we want to preserve jobs, environmental protection, and employment protection and if we want to compete we must be willing to cutting costs somewhere or have a protected market.
Or learn how to sell quality instead of cheap crap. There's a market for quality too.
Or learn how to sell quality instead of cheap crap. There's a market for quality too.
Limited though. You can't suddenly make everyone buy top quality stuff instead of cheap stuff - where will they get the money?
Limited though. You can't suddenly make everyone buy top quality stuff instead of cheap stuff - where will they get the money?
What do you think is the difference between manufacturing quality stuff and cheap stuff, as a proportion of the final selling price?
Double your manufacturing cost on many products and it would barely affect final price
What do you think is the difference between manufacturing quality stuff and cheap stuff, as a proportion of the final selling price?
This I'll agree with to a degree. A good quality control regime will bring down costs and make you more competitve.
We need to market quality and stop accepting the price driven markets that are selling to us at the moment. Lazy sales people thrive on cheap prices to gain market share, anyone can do that.
Good quality doesn't need to mean expensive.
So let me get this straight. You're advocating investing hugely in building manufacturing capability, on the basis that it'll be better quality than the Chinese.
Sounds good. Why do we need to be out of the EU to do ths?
So let me get this straight. You're advocating investing hugely in building manufacturing capability, on the basis that it'll be better quality than the Chinese.
Yep, ever since my dissertation and Nissan seem to have carved themselves a nice little niche.
Sounds good. Why do we need to be out of the EU to do ths?
It was in response to GEDA stating that we are weaker in a free trade environment if we can't compete, in EU or outside, it doesn't matter.
We are weaker if we want to preserve jobs, environmental protection, and employment protection and if we want to compete we must be willing to cutting costs somewhere or have a protected market.
GEDA - most (65%) of our international trade is outside the EU and the EU has been a declining partner as it's economy is stagnant
UK imports from the EU are 54% of total imports, a figure that has remained the same from 2000 to 2015. Exports to the EU have declined as you might expect with the decline of North Sea oil and gas.
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Should you not try to implement a new economic strategy while continuing to maintain what works at the moment. Seems a pretty standard way to deal with risk? Who knows if we can become a super hi-tech manufacturer but I do not see the EU holding us back on that account, Germany seem to be quite good at it.
Should you not try to implement a new economic strategy while continuing to maintain what works at the moment.
Well I would say so yes. Suddenly informing your economy that things are going to completely change in 2 years, but not telling them how or putting in place any strategy, well that's pretty frigging stupid isn't it?
Question for Jam and Ninfan: Assuming you're right about Britain being better off out of the EU - don't you think it would be a good idea to come up with a strategy to work towards that to minimise disruption and maximise benefit, rather than simply pulling the plug?
Well I would say so yes. Suddenly informing your economy that things are going to completely change in 2 years, but not telling them how or putting in place any strategy, well that's pretty frigging stupid isn't it?
Those are the rules. You can tell Article 50 was supposed to be a deterrent.
So it has been stated that we can have a glorious future selling high end stuff in a free trade paradise. Can't really see that benefiting the poor, uneducated and left behind that voted for Brexit. Am I being stupid or is the problem that these people are poor, unskilled, few opportunities or examples of how one makes your life better not quick fixes that look easy on paper but in reality are a bit harder to carry out. I give you some select quotes from the UKIP manifesto as exhibit a:
Leave the EU and save £55 million
every day
Drop the EU Landfill Directive to cut
refuse disposal costs
Close unnecessary central government
departments and quangos
End wasteful EU and UK subsidies to
‘renewable energy scams’, such as wind
turbines and solar farms
Oppose EU directives adding artificial and
detrimental costs
The first figure I came across is 44% of our trade is with the eu. That must mean we do 54% with the rest of the world. How many of those companies are based here due to getting access to the EU markets and the rest of the world?
GEDA you are correct (as is Edukator) it is 44/56 but the EU component has been declining as the EU has stagnated post financial crises and imo will get much worse as the eurozone crises returns to the fore and gets dealt with. My point is that 44% of trade doesn't dissapear - it may be subject to tariffs and all 100% of our trade is now more attractive due to the decline in the £. China has held down its fx rate for decades and Germany beenfits from a weaker € than would be the fx rate for the D-Mark
The delay in A50 has allowed business to think more about their plans for different scenarios come 2019, hence the 9 months from June 2016 to A50 in March 2017.
No doubt the creation of the A50 mechanism via Lisbon Treaty has a pro EU bias, that's the political nature of the beast make it difficult to leave the project. I mean how very dare anyone reject us ?
So it has been stated that [b]we can have a glorious future selling high end stuff[/b] in a free trade paradise.
Was there a mention of high end stuff?
Am I being stupid
I'm saying nothing.
Are you a gold fish?
Or learn how to sell quality instead of cheap crap. There's a market for quality too.
The delay in A50 has allowed business to think more about their plans for different scenarios come 2019, hence the 9 months from June 2016 to A50 in March 2017.
Hahaha.. 2.5 years.. 🙂
Do you actually work in business at all?
Has your bank planned for the demise of the euro ? Answer yes as the SFA requires it. I worked on the "end of the euro" planning project back in 2010. Businesses are pretty adept at acting when they have to.
Are you a gold fish?
Quality =/= high end. I'll take a gold star though. Did you miss the bit about the dissertation too? Would you consider Nissan to be high end? Skoda to be high end? They are brands known for high quality though.
I wouldn't, on the other hand, call Maserati quality in spite of the high end price tag. They do have a reputation for breaking down a lot.
Planning for new regulations is one thing. I bet all the businesses are doing jumps for joy that they have to do yet more changes to support laws that will have no benefit financially. Planning for a brand new economic strategy takes decades. Plus the fact that current economic theory of leaving everything to the market does not support or even believe in state interference. (Not that China and Germany believe in that way of doing things)
Funnily enough at the Remembrance service we attended the vicar talked about Trump, Brexit and the rise of divisiveness and hate.
It really annoys me when this happens.
Planning for a brand new economic strategy takes decades.
Amazon, Google, Facebook ?
We are speaking about incorprating WTO tariffs (avg 3%), our currency and the oil price have moved more in the last 2 years, it's not rocket science. Any business which exports globally already manages for tariffs.
Do you think VW are telling the German Government they need more time for Brexit as they haven't worked out how to deal with it for exports to the UK ?
Anyone else hear this song every time you see Jam's username?
Anyway:
Amazon, Google, Facebook ?
No. SMEs that use European parters or sell to Europe with small margins. Products that might have less of a of a market elsewhere.
Do you think VW are telling the German Government they need more time for Brexit as they haven't worked out how to deal with it for exports to the UK ?
No but I bet they are making contingency plans for lost sales due to prices going up due to Brexit
Jamba - am I right that you've only worked in services (finance?) not industry?
I think you are underestimating the psychological impact, Jamba. Time will tell. There are a whole lot of people in the EU who suddenly feel a little less well disposed towards doing business with the UK even though it has become temporarily cheaper. They know that once the increased price of imports hits the UK the price advantage will be eroded by inflation and you are doing business with a non-EU state with a volatile foreign currency.
Trust is a very important and that is in short supply. Good will too. Ford, GM and Peugeot all claim to have lost two to three digit millions due to the Brexit. When they readjust their capacity it's going to be very tempting to shut factories in leave towns.
I think the "special relationship" will be based on revenge in the years to come.
If I were a company right now I'd not touch the UK with a bargepole. No-one's got any idea what's going to happen to it - not even its government. A lot of investment is going to go elsewhere even if Brexit gets scrapped - because if it does it'll take several years.
Trust is a very important and that is in short supply.
He's right. What else is May likely to do for populist reasons that'll knacker yet more businesses?
We all need to step back and look at this from a much lower level, all this discussion about WTO tariffs and exchange rates is a little lost on the more down to earth brexit voters - their needs are simple just take Bob from Hartlepool he wants all the immigrants sending home and he fully expects £36k a year +bonus + pension for a 35 hour week driving his fork lift - all within 3 years from now.
None of the above discussion on euro fiscal global fiscal bollocks has not a jot of value to Bob who voted leave (he actually doesn't believe it's real just like climate change is made up) this is your problem so solve it please Jamba and Ninfan..
igm software development then banking / asset management. As I said if you are a manufacturer your products are much more competitve today than they where in May.
Edukator when fhe eurozone blows up I have no doubt Brexit will be blamed. I mean it was all going so well right ?
I am a hard nosed business person, people buy from us as they like the product and price not because we are their friend. If Europe starts any sort of anti UK attidue it is they who have plenty to lose as we run such a large trade deficit. Also you forget there are many in the EU who are very disatisfied with it. Just wait till the Germans have to find another €5bn pa (?) and the French €3bn pa to make up the budget shortfall from the UK leaving. I think their eire will against Brussels. I have been quite surprised how many of my poltically active French in-laws haven't grasped this future cost and it's not being discussed innthe media
Indeed nissan managed for it by getting an assurance forom the govt there would be none or they would **** offAny business which exports globally already manages for tariffs.
if only reality reflected your optimism
,
incorprating WTO tariffs (avg 3%)
Source please as reads like a total [s]lie [/s]jambyfact
Let's call this the Hartlepool conundrum
Answers to the following please-
1. What business is going to arrive in Hartlepool in the next 3 years that offers mass employment
2. Will the above business pay £36k to Bob as a semi skilled (at best individual)
3. Who is going to invest
oldman, no-one gives a shit about Bob, they just want to harness his frustration as a vote for their neolibertarian agenda. There will still be plenty of foreigners to blame when his 36k job doesn't appear, and Bob will quite possibly still be deluded enough to vote for more of the same. Even if he isn't, that's far off in the future.
[url= https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/oranges-litmus-test/ ]https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2016/09/10/oranges-litmus-test/[/url]
no idea where 3% comes from, according to the WTO on page 3 it is 9%? and varies massively
> Funnily enough at the Remembrance service we attended the vicar talked about Trump, Brexit and the rise of divisiveness and hate.It really annoys me when this happens.
What you mean religious leaders speaking out against hatred & intolerance and cheekily offering an alternative message of compassion, empathy, and understanding?
Bastards!
She even did the old Edmund Burke "good men to do nothing" quote.
Oldman, how old is Bob? Does he have an issue with shooting "them", we are going to need soldiers to suppress the uprising when the shit hits the fan and things don't magically get better.
Objectively the pound is more likely to fail than the Euro. Have you looked at the UK's balance of payments? Yes, you have, and it's more of a problem for the UK than Europe
I'm not expecting any country to make up the UK's budget contribution. I'm expecting the trade tariffs or one-off annual right to trade payment to be greater - see Norway or Switzerland.
Many in the EU are dissatisfied with it, and many of those want reform not out. I expect politicians will do everything in their power to make sure the citizens of Europe see the Brexit as a failure; an example of what not to do.
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37921598 ]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37921598[/url]
can't blame them really, how many years did they fight to evict the UK from French soil and now they have given some territory away and get treated like crap for it.
and before anyone mentions elections, Brexit means Brexit, if the French electorate are promised that the UK is evicted from French soil, Joan of Arc anyone? why would they to follow it through?
Hold on ,no one needs to worry about those blips ^^^^^^^ Enola will negotiate them all away.
