[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I thought that 4.5% was 4.5% less growth, not a 4.5% fall.

Manufacturing led recovery... right here we go
1. The venture capitalists (landlords) only investment in fixed assets - so they could build a factory and rent it to you (industrial buy to let?) Unlikley they would as there is a surplus of unoccupied industrial buildings and no demand
2. The venture capitalists want nothing to do with anything that has more than a 3 to 5 years exit strategy (fast buck syndrome)
3. No need for them to improve the lot of the working poor (No profit just drives up labour costs)
There is no mechanism or will in the UK to invest in industrial capacity. Just ask Dyson

Phew! 😉

Why focus on venture capital? They only play a very specific role.

We invest in industrial capacity all the time. I spent all of Monday morning with people who do exactly that.

I'm not speaking to Dyson at the moment - not apologises over his Brexit stance.

I see so the LSE estimates

“Leaving the EU customs union would hurt the British economy and a fall in GDP per capita of 4.5% by 2030 is a sensible estimate of the potential impact. We cannot know for certain how large the costs will be,”

as I said, phew 😉

Based on all of the above, surely any vaguely responsible Government would spell out the pros and cons of leaving and say "look, we massively ****ed up in even calling a referendum, it was completely mis-sold (and unlike PPI, we can't get compensation for being mis-sold Brexit!), you can all see what a complete catastrophe this has been in even a few short months and we've not even formally started the leaving process yet so in the interest of, well, everyone, we're going to ignore what was a non-binding referendum and do what's best for the country. We're not leaving".

And then (after several months of dealing with the political fallout and possibly even a snap election), they could get back to running the country.

Just a thought...

That was done before - albeit very imperfectly - and we had a vote. We have to get on with it now. Its crap but you cant just pretend it didnt happen

(having said that I have no doubt that the real deals are being neogtiated miles away from the formal process and that a fudge will appear - we already have it with the payments for bankers and industry, but the big bazooka will be next year)

Churchill believed in a United States of Europe in order to remove the Sovereignty of France and Germany so they would stop attacking each ofher. His clear intention was to leave them to it and to focus the UK Westwards towards the USA.

I'll leave this here (again).

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I'm probably being a bit slow here but one of things I think I've read many times are statements to the effect of "the UK can't possibly have free trade without free movement of people"..

In light of the map below, can anyone explain why the EU appears to not only be negotiating towards this with a number of countries, but it's already formalised agreements to this effect with Vietnam and Singapore?

Why would the EU want a free trade partnership with Australia, 10,000 miles away but not entertain one with a country 26 miles away?

source for map: http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/

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Hope you boys have very deep pockets teamhurtnomore and lots of (blind)faith in the post Brexit market opportunities.... we are all depending on you (oliver Twist moment)

Hope you boys have very deep pockets teamhurtnomore and lots of (blind)faith in the post Brexit market opportunities.... we are all depending on you (oliver Twist moment)

😯 I am not optimistic. We had a difficult future made harder - and all self-inflicted. We will all have to work a lot harder to make any opportunities work.

[i]“Leaving the EU customs union would hurt the British economy and a fall in GDP per capita of 4.5% by 2030 is a sensible estimate of the potential impact. We cannot know for certain how large the costs will be,”[/i]

Erm. If the GDP falls by 4.5% between now and 2030 that would be a monster recession as even at 1% growth pa the GDP would have grown by +15% in that time - so it'd make it a [b]20% fall![/b]

just5minutes - no not slow - people are just misusing terms that's all.

Oh look, a convenient way to back out of having to meet EU air quality standards that we're currently a very long way from meeting!

(@ 3:20)

We still [i]want[/i] better air quality, they say, but we'll say nothing about how our funky new patriotic standards compare with the EU ones.

Those pesky Europeans, trying to stop the air we breathe from killing us. That's not the British way!

BR - I think it means, say, 15.5% instead of 20% not -4.5% instead of 20%. It's the in-out fall not the absolute fall.

.

In light of the map below, can anyone explain why the EU appears to not only be negotiating towards this with a number of countries, but it's already formalised agreements to this effect with Vietnam and Singapore?

Why would the EU want a free trade partnership with Australia, 10,000 miles away but not entertain one with a country 26 miles away?

What is this dead easy questions on the EU?

[i]BR - I think it means, say, 15.5% instead of 20% not -4.5% instead of 20%. It's the in-out fall not the absolute fall. [/i]

Ok, but predicting that we will be worse off in 2030 than we are now, whether it's 4.5%, 15.5%, 20% or even just 1% means a severe recession.

Have we any clarification of these numbers?

Oh God - who mis-used 4.5%? 😉

Dont worry its not that bad. Bad, yes, but not in the sense .

Here's the EU deal..

OK, so we're off, we'll take a free trade agreement and zero tariffs, we might even match yours on inbound stuff if your good, sorry no free movement and you probably need to do something about that for your own internal political situation.
We won't be helping out with your European Army but you can still rely on Nato.
We'll have our 55 mill back from the ECB but we'll honour our share of the pensions.
No we won't be contributing going forward sorry about that.
Please observe the No fishing signs up the Channel on our side and in the North Sea.
Oh and that 1st payment of the 50% of our Trident project is due, when can we expect the cheque?
Was there anything else?

Was there anything else?

A complete detachment from reality perhaps?

I think he's just cut and paste the Brexit negotiating plan from Theresa's computer

I think he's just cut and paste the [s]Brexit negotiating plan from Theresa's computer[/s] daily express letters page

Was there anything else?

Residential status of about 4 million individuals ring any bells?

a smiley?

OK, so we're off, we'll take a free trade agreement and zero tariffs

What? How? Is that on offer?

Can someone explain how Delphi are going to get their injectors heat treated and still stay competitive with cost?

why Brexiters keep saying that the Eu will allow free trade without free movement of people ?????

They dont understand how it works?

Because if they admitted that wasn't going to happen, they'd have to accept what a **** up they've caused.

Here's the EU deal..
OK, so we're off, we'll take a free trade agreement and zero tariffs, we might even match yours on inbound stuff if your good, sorry no free movement

Can I just check - have all your comments on this thread been on the assumption that's the deal we're going to get? If we can't actually get anywhere close to that would you revise your opinion?

His clear intention was to leave them to it and to focus the UK Westwards towards the USA.

Got a direct quote for that Jambas or is that just your opinion?....

There is absolutely zero chance of tariff free access to the single market without free movement of people. Also zero chance of tariff free access to the single market without making contributions.

There are absolute red lines for the EU and this is a basic underlying principle of the EU

Free movement of people works both ways FFS.
All I want to do is retire to the sunshine.
If we stop young people coming to work here they will stop old gits going out there to do nothing but use their hospitals.
What we do they will do.So it's best to be NICE.

I have the same espresso cups as Jambaliar… anyone want to buy them off me?

Sorry.

I'm probably being a bit slow here but one of things I think I've read many times are statements to the effect of "the UK can't possibly have free trade without free movement of people"..

Well, the right for workers to move about is a major block on many of those trade deals being completed. Take the India one for example, they want to be able to use some of their experts on site in their EU offshoots without having to beg to nations states each time… but, the U.K. blocked it. Perhaps that'll all get sorted in 2.5 years time… anyway, the movement of workers is often the sticking point when it comes to trade deals.

We won't be helping out with your European Army but you can still rely on Nato.

We'll still share aircraft carriers with the French though, yes?

Please observe the No fishing signs up the Channel on our side and in the North Sea.

Will we be buying back the (privatised) fishing quotas we've sold to companies in other EU countries? Or just tearing up international treaties and putting gun boats in place to enforce our illegal embargo?

tjagain - Member
There is absolutely zero chance of tariff free access to the single market without free movement of people. Also zero chance of tariff free access to the single market without making contributions.

There are absolute red lines for the EU and this is a basic underlying principle of the EU

We should have a little bet.

There will probably have to be some contribution, we're going to have to simply because of historic liabilities, but freedom of movement, nope sorry, not going to happen and tariffs? I very much doubt it.

kelvin - Member

Will we be buying back the (privatised) fishing quotas we've sold to companies in other EU countries? Or just tearing up international treaties and putting gun boats in place to enforce our illegal embargo?

Ha coming soon, Cod Wars part deux! 😆

Ha coming soon, Cod Wars part deux!

I don't reckon our Navy is up to the job..

I have still not read or heard any good reasons for us to leave the EU.

I fail to understand how so many people were convinced to believe that the EU is such a terrible thing for the UK.

I also fail to understand how the government can keep up the pretence that a large proportion of the population voted to leave, when there was only a small majority, leaving a very divided nation on the verge of doing something totally ridiculous.

Let us never again have a referendum for the masses, on a permanent decision, with a threshold of only 50%

Watching news and odd that someone with May's experience looks so desperately uncomfortable on a leaders' stage.

37% of eligible voters chose leave, not a majority. Something that I think deserves a bit more attention.

Don't worry Aristolte, there weren't any

rosscore, I'll bet £10,000 that we won't get tarriff-free trade without freedom of movement. Are you interested?

rosscore - Member

There will probably have to be some contribution, we're going to have to simply because of historic liabilities, but freedom of movement, nope sorry, not going to happen and tariffs? I very much doubt it.

Haven't we already pretty much decided we're going to have to pay to let the banking industry have access to the EU. And this Danegeld surely won't come cheap.

Sounds like the current government thinking is freedom of movement for professional middle class types while the working class can know their place and stay in it.

While I kind of feel that reflects the vote (in general at least), it does sound a little divisive.

Good call igm. I Hadn't been attuned to that possibility. Sounds horrible.