[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I don't know why you keep arguing with Jambalaya. In his position, working in the city making money, Brexit makes perfect sense. Less regulations and an open free market to screw even more people. The fact that he admitted that even his own children voted stay, says it all for me.

I don't know why you keep arguing with Jambalaya. In his position, working in the city making money, Brexit makes perfect sense.

No it doesn't - in fact quite the opposite. Just look at the share prices of UK and EU banks since the vote.

Plus uncertainty is killing volumes as is uncertainty re the passporting of services

Speaking of opinions and money grabbing types, I found this in the Guardian.

Make of it what you will.

The top donor was the stockbroker Peter Hargreaves, who gave £3.2m to Leave.eu. He explained his enthusiasm for leaving the EU thus: “It would be the biggest stimulus to get our butts in gear that we have ever had … We will get out there and we will be become incredibly successful because we will be insecure again. And insecurity is fantastic.”

We will get out there and we will be become incredibly successful because we will be insecure again. And insecurity is fantastic.”

Once we've become successful, won't that put us back in a secure position similar to the one we were in before brexit. What do we do then? Leave the WTO? Or is this nonsense just another way of avoiding saying you don't like immigration??

Eventually, the UK will leave the planet, stating that the Earth was "so yesterday" and the UK could do better dealing with other planets, despite not knowing whether there is any life on any of them.

Unfortunately the plan to leave will preceed any plan to build a space station or moon Base...

Once we've become successful, won't that put us back in a secure position similar to the one we were in before brexit

I think he means that we will be successful in a way we can never be whilst in the EU.

I think he means that we will be successful in a way we can never be whilst in the EU.

No, what he means is that he will make lots of money.

No, what he means is that he will make lots of money.

This frankly is absolute and total bollix. I have made it clear numerous times that Remain was the betfer outcome for me financially in the narrow sense. "The City" is heavily Remain out of vested interest. What is best for the country and thus me in broader terms is Leave.

So all you Remainers what do you think about this, ex-EU head takes big (and very well paid I imagine) at Goldman Sachs. Numerous news coverage (especially in France where they are incandescent)

[url= https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/13/france-former-european-commission-boss-goldman-sachs-job ]Kerching Kerching[/url]

I think if GS want to pay him handsomely then that's probably what's going to happen.

Not the first time, not the last, and I'm not sure of the relevance.

The "insecurity is fantastic" comment was the one I found most interesting. That's the guy who was bankrolling the leave campaign remember.

Did you also see that campaign spend was 54:46 not far off the vote? Of course you can't buy votes with spend though can you?

But he is right, one of the biggest problems of the Remain campaign was it was very dry, to get through to people you need to paint pictures which [s]illustrate[/s] [b]completely misrepresent[/b] the facts.

Fixed.

So all you Remainers what do you think about this, ex-EU head takes big (and very well paid I imagine) at Goldman Sachs.

Politician takes well paid job after political career has ended

Makes you think, eh 😉

What is best for the country and thus me in broader terms is Leave.

And what about Boris "run away" Johnson taking a highly paid position as foreign secretary?

And what about Boris "run away" Johnson taking a highly paid position as foreign secretary?

He will lose money dumping his column and book deals

[quote=jambalaya ]I must have posted a dozen times just read every post with [IMO] ... [/IMO] thats what I do.

Where exactly does jamba live? ISTM that defence needs geographying - the "French Chateau defence" is a bit unweildy.

Resident in the UK @aracer

from your chateaux in France

Chateaux aren't what they used to be - 50m2 😉

Some say he's Boris Johnston's style consultant...

Some say he wrote Andrea Leadsom's CV...

All we know is he's called Jamba 😉

(Sorry bored in a Westminster hotel room and I've been watching Top Gear - strangely there's nothing going on around here tonight, a mile up the road perhaps but not here)

There's isn't a Jam defence. He just keeps on going regardless 🙂

"And what about Boris "run away" Johnson taking a highly paid position as foreign secretary?"

He will lose money dumping his column and book deals

Well he has a huge ego to feed.

good* analysis here

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/07/14/everything-you-need-to-know-about-theresa-may-s-brexit

*good as in it agrees with my established beliefs, some people may disagree, but hey are wrong 😉

OK, which way is this cookie going to crumble?

Farmers were promised ongoing subsidies to match those from the Common Agricultural Policy

The options appear to be:
- We remain in single market (or a version of) and everything stays sort of the same. We can carry on subsidising farmers at about the same rate as the EU did.
- We fail to negotiate a relationship with the EU and revert to WTO trading nation status. However, to do this we have to either a) negotiate to get a percentage of the EU farming subsidies (long and hard as you have to get consensus from every single EU member) or b) accept large tariff rate quotas (oh yes, tariff rates and quotas don't disappear with the EU) and stop subsidising farmers.

To be clear, I voted remain. I believe in the EU as a protective and progressive force. But the minutiae of the mechanisms of leaving and the horse trading that there will be is weirdly fascinating. I suspect that farming subsidies will disappear if we don't manage a single market style compromise. But there are so many variables.

For those similarly fascinated - you can read up on it below. I'm not going to explain in full as it's much better set out in the FT.
https://next.ft.com/content/5741129a-4510-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d

Bonne fête nationale ! (à celles et ceux qui se sentent concernés)

The options appear to be:
- We remain in single market (or a version of) and everything stays sort of the same. We can carry on subsidising farmers at about the same rate as the EU did.
- We fail to negotiate a relationship with the EU and revert to WTO trading nation status. However, to do this we have to either a) negotiate to get a percentage of the EU farming subsidies (long and hard as you have to get consensus from every single EU member) or b) accept large tariff rate quotas (oh yes, tariff rates and quotas don't disappear with the EU) and stop subsidising farmers

outside the EU we can do what we want in compliance with any other agreements, the difference is that we create our own scheme for our own farmers without having to report up to Brussels for permission

the current implementation of single farm payments is a mess with many farmers not getting money in a timely manner, how much is UK incompetence and how much difficulty complying with EU rules is what we have yet to find out

You don't get do you, rules on tariffs and rules on subsidies go hand in hand. You want tariff free access to EU market, then you don't control your own subsidy rates. And you don't take part it setting the rules anymore. More control handed over to the EU as a result of this "give our country away" decision.

Glad I'm not an exporting farmer or fisherman.

The rest of the world happily trades with tariffs in place. If we had to I'm sure we could too - and we'd be charging tariffs on imports as well, of course.

we'd be charging tariffs on imports as well, of course.

You mean [u]we'd[/u] be paying more for everything we buy, apart from orange and hope bits? But wait they're made from aluminium which we... Ah. Sounds great!

Waiter! Cheque please!

But wait they're made from aluminium which we... Ah. Sounds great!

You understand the concept of 'added value'?

Lump of aluminium comes into UK at one price
Manufactured bike frame exported at higher price
'Value' has been 'added'

"You mean we'd be paying more for everything we buy, apart from orange and hope bits? But wait they're made from aluminium which we... Ah. Sounds great!"

*Everything* we buy? Really? Nobody in Britain buys anything from outside the EU?

Average tariff is 3pc, we'd cope.

But they have added value now, at the price they are now. Making them more expensive just makes things less affordable, so we buy less. We import aluminium ingots from Sweden now at some price per tonne and turn them mainly into swarf and shiny things. Adding 9% to the raw material price helps nobody, except the exchequer. And even he's not that much better off as the vat revenue falls through the floor.

Yes everything we buy, because everything we buy at some point, needs fuel to move it around or process it. Unless we suddenly find a way to convert Brent crude into heavy crude suitable for making petrol, diesel and heavy diesel, instead of the plastic and fertiliser it usually goes off to make.

Edit: it makes good petrol, but naff diesel.

I might be misreading this but looks like aluminium is tariff free for import from almost everywhere and it's inevitable wed start on the standard EU tariff rate 'cos there'd be no time to legislate for anything else:

https://www.gov.uk/trade-tariff/commodities/7601202010#import

Lots of good stats on UK trade figures here by the way:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/may2016

It will be interesting to see how these change in the future.

In fact, on reflection, I reckon tariffs on raw raw materials are unlikely to be a problem. Hard to see why a UK Govt would want to tax imports of raw materials - they'd want manufacturers to have cheap materials. The kind of things they'd be looking to discourage would be car imports (which the EU already does) and stuff we produce here (Steel!).

We can be sure we'd start with the CCT and tweak it for our own purposes. For instance, do we have a wine export industry to protect? No? In which case we can remove the large CCT import tariff on wine.

All academic 'cos I don't think we're leaving, but interesting none the less.

But they have added value now, at the price they are now. Making them more expensive just makes things less affordable, so we buy less. We import aluminium ingots from Sweden now at some price per tonne and turn them mainly into swarf and shiny things. Adding 9% to the raw material price helps nobody, except the exchequer. And even he's not that much better off as the vat revenue falls through the floor.

Where is that 9pc coming from? Why would a UK govt want to put a tariff on Aluminium? Even the EU doesn't and it sounds like the EU does produce some Aluminium so they'd have more reason to than the Uk.

Yes everything we buy, because everything we buy at some point, needs fuel to move it around or process it. Unless we suddenly find a way to convert Brent crude into heavy crude suitable for making petrol, diesel and heavy diesel, instead of the plastic and fertiliser it usually goes off to make.

You're seriously claiming we import our Diesel Tariff Free & from the EU? Tax is a MASSIVE portion of the price of Diesel.

Glad I'm not an exporting farmer or fisherman.

@kelvin farmers and fisherman where pro-Leave quite substantially so I understand. Do you really think they don't fully understand the EU and its subsidies and trade barriers and thought about all of that before voting. As for "exporting" well our domestic market is easily able to support our farmers and 80% of the fish caught in our waters are caught by EU boats. Fishermen would be perfectly happy with export tarifs on fish as the Spanish etc boats can't easily catch those fish anywhere else.

We do not have to accept a free-trade deal of the type we currently have. We can negotiate something more specific to our needs or have none. The vast majoriity of the world's trade is under WTO rules of which the EU is a member and we will be as an independent nation. The US, China etc do huge amounts of business with no trade deal. Germany, France and Eastern Europe do huge amounts of business with Russia likewise with no deal.

Its hilarious
May has brilliantly thrown all the responsibility for the impossible negotiations at the feet of Johnson, Fox and Davies (Gove just considered too duplicitous even for a brexiter!)

Davies has already he said he wants us out by xmas 2018

as a pragmatic remainer, she knows that those 3 dont have a hope of delivering all the bullshit they promised.

what does she really think about Borris..

"Boris negotiated in Europe. I seem to remember last time he did a deal with the Germans, he came back with three nearly-new water cannon".

80% of the fish caught in our waters are caught by EU boats.

Are UK boats not going to other EU countries' waters to fish then? If not, why not?

I'm starting to become rather fond of Theresa May, if she is actually as scheming as I'm starting to suspect...

Game of Thrones and The West Wing have nothing on this.

Maybe this is good for the UK, this kind of high drama is surely going to increase peoples interest in politics - is it not?

Kimbers - are you thinking this is starting to look like May is stitching up the quit squad? Because the thought hasn't crossed my mind. No,no,no, not at all.

My suspicion with May is that emotionally she wants to leave Europe, but she is more ruled by her head than her heart.

We'll see.

Its hilarious
May has brilliantly thrown all the responsibility for the impossible negotiations at the feet of Johnson, Fox and Davies (Gove just considered too duplicitous even for a brexiter!)

Hilarious indeed.

And IDS was an the telly trying to put the responsibility for delivering "Brexit" on May's lap. Strictly speaking correct, but nobody will see it that way and it was pitiful watching him try to deflect responsibility. IMHO the three Brexiteers are going to fail to 'leave', and take the blame. If they work it out and make a success of it, May will be taking the credit.

OOOh and Andea Loathsome now has to tell farmers they are going to loose their subsidies

[img] [/img]

Of course. Missed that.

I did wonder why she'd got that brief.

Best tell thebees the sound he can hear is laughter not crying.

Priti Patel - International Development

Yep. Still on theme.