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I get that a Labour Party member supporting Remain might say that. As we know from STW political threads you don't have a representative cross section of the UK population. Key Brexiteers in the Brexit posts makes perfect sense. Obviously RemIners hoped to see appointees willing to hijack the process and keep us in the EU
Actually as a centre left, middle class remainer, I was quite pleased to see those clowns in the Brexit posts. Easier to jettison them and be clear Brexit want workable.
Yes Klunk, Adam Werrity: from the mod incident.
Bungling scheming half wits, the steptoe & son of politics.
how many hours do you have?
ok here's a flavour from one of the models and the ST impact
The world that emerges is one in which sterling depreciates immediately, by around 20 per cent, against a basket of currencies. This drives inflationary pressure, causing CPI to jump by between 2-4 percentage points more than our Remain-based forecast in 2017. Investment falls dramatically, just over 10 per cent in the third quarter of 2016 due to the direct impact of uncertainty. This effect is magnified in 2017 as, in addition, widening borrowing premia pushes up the user cost of capital. Real GDP is broadly unaffected in 2016 as the decline in domestic demand is offset by a positive net trade contribution derived from sterling depreciation. The level of GDP will be 1 per cent lower in 2017, as domestic factors dominate, with the level of GDP deviating from our Remain baseline by 2.3 per cent by 2018. This translates into a reduction in the growth rate of GDP of 0.8 and 1.3 percentage points in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Our central forecast results do not imply that the economy will go into recession as a consequence of a vote to leave, but the likelihood of such an event increases.The endogenous response of the MPC is represented by a Taylor Rule using the parameters published for the Bank of England’s model COMPASS (see Burgess et al. 2013). In the active monetary policy scenario, following an initial reduction in response to the shock, the MPC then tightens interest rates from 2017 due to the pronounced deviation of the rate of inflation from the baseline profile. This tightening weighs on demand over the period we present. We think it more likely that the MPC would look through this rise in inflation and keep interest rates on our baseline path.
You really want more???
This is from the exec summary too - trust me, dont worry about the nitty-gritty at this stage
Actually as a centre left, middle class remainer, I was quite pleased to see those clowns in the Brexit posts. Easier to jettison them and be clear Brexit want workable.
tbf they are doing a rather good job so far, fortuantely hannan,gove & rees-mogg want to get themselves in on the action too, 😆
Ta, and is tightening of interest rates, increasing?
We seem to be at a turning point right now br IME
Yields are now rising, inflation expectations have risen and $ liquidity is tightening - market trends that are pre-empting moves in official rates
Central Banks have a tough 12 months ahead of them. Good job Carney locked down 2019 today!!
I cant believe that you lot are still banging on about this. I love an enthusiast!
Interestingly re inflation, they were saying today (R4 obv.) that prospective inflation was too great to be 'looked through' so rates could go up a fair bit. Inevitably some people will have taken out massive fixed rate loans v recently and look super clever with hindsight whilst those on variables will feel sick.
Finally the government will get to deflate (??) some its debt mountain and corporate pension fund deficits can be re-valued.
Good time to fix a mortgage then?
you might be a bit late mol! woild need to check
that is certainly the weight of opinion today.
glad we fixed for 5 years recently .
We seem to be at a turning point right now br IME
Carney was so quick to lower rates (before any data suggesting a negative impact from the vote) that I assumed he did it purely to give himself some room to put them right back up again once the inevitable inflation hit, but without causing too much damage as ANY move whatsoever towards normalising rates will see the debt crisis become very real indeed...
There's also the small matter of US data suggesting another rate rise before Xmas...
It really feels like the calm before the storm at the moment...
Prior to the referendum, I thought to myself, "you'd have to be on drugs to vote for something so stupid".
[url= 
]Brexiters were literally on drugs[/url]
[url= http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/eu-referendum-map-shows-how-brexit-different-parts-of-the-uk-are_uk_57691f46e4b01fb658641757 ]edit to add leave voters map for comparrison[/url]
cchris2lou - Member
glad we fixed for 5 years recently .
+1 did a 5yr fixed, last year
fingers crossed that things have settled by 2020 and renewal
know a few people whove maxed out on trackers who could be hurting, including my brexit voting brother 🙄
So various Japanese firms are getting offers to relocate into the EU and the govrnment refuse to publish the deal they reached with nissan
Lets see you spin this one leavers
One thing the vote shows is how principled people are in this country.
We are prepared to sacrifice our jobs and homes to be able to say "we are free".
Stick that in your pipe EU.
"Who's laughing now."
Quite obvious that the Japanese know the details of the Nissan deal. Nissan is in the process of buying Mitsubishi.
They want the same deal and they are going to get it.
Lucky 350m a week is available for fund all those great deals.
You can't put a price on taking back control, zippy
Clark Greg referenced the carmaker supply line interconnectivity thingy in the debate yesterday
He reckons the EU will allow tariff free access, so as not to mess that up, Im not convinced that economic expediency will trump the free market access & freedom of movement redline that the EU claim
but the government are beginning to accept that we might have to pay in an awful lot if we were to get the access
that 350m 🙄 is getting split an awful lot of ways
you might be a bit late mol! woild need to check
Barclays 3.49% for 5 years at my LTV. Could be worth a shot.
amusing to see how the biases express themselves in the headlines today
FT: Mark Carney to stay as CB Governor until 2019 - help steer UK through Brexshit
Brexshitgraph: Carney to quit straight after Brexshit- wont serve full term
😀
I fixed for 5 years just before the 2008 crash during the hysteria about interest rates just in time to watch the rates tumble. I tried to work out how much extra that cost once but it was all too painful!
[conspiracy_mode]
Anyone else wondering if Rudd's call on not investigating Orgreave is because they don't want to anger the police before the Brexit riots which will come when the public realise exactly what leaving the EU will mean.
Or is it simply because the smoking gun might put the likes of Lord Tebbit (and fellow conspirators in the pre-planned assault on strikers) in court?
[/conspiracy_mode]
Sympathies nipper. But that's the problem with so much distortion in markets. It becomes almost impossible to plan/make sensible investment decisions. Interest rates have been grotesquely manipulated for so long now that it is becoming almost impossible for them to be normalised in an orderly fashion.
Any people claim that's we live in a free market, capitalist society!!!
[i]One thing the vote shows is how principled people are in this country.
We are prepared to sacrifice our jobs and homes to be able to say "we are free".
Stick that in your pipe EU.
"Who's laughing now." [/I]
I think you'll find (with the exception of those against the EU purely on principle, ie Jamba and the Brexit3) that most of the rest probably didn't even consider the risks at all.
#unintendedconsequences
[I]We seem to be at a turning point right now br IME[/I]
More of a tipping point IMO, and I do feel we're now looking into the abyss. Although maybe it's an age thing, as I'm +50 y/o and don't want to cope with 5-10 years of difficult times to get to the 'promised land'. I want to be retired before 60 y/o and the way my pensions/investments are been hammered it's looking less likely this can happen.
Not sure about abyss, but were are a long way from being out of the woods.
We incorrectly diagnosed the reasons for the crisis and hence have not addressed the underlying problems. Recent policies merely prevented things getting worse. In the meantime, the underlying problem has got worse and still has to be addressed, but there are no easy quick solutions. So a gloomy outlook ahead compounded by the unnecessary nonsense that is Brexshit.
that most of the rest probably didn't even consider the risks at all.
That's not true at all. The general view amongst Leavers was "it might be difficult for a while but we will manage". The RemIners totally misjudged the impact of their ludicrous Armageddon predictions - in a true Brit way Leavers just saw it as total bollix
The general view amongst Leavers was "it might be difficult for a while but we will manage".
Which is bloody disgraceful. Essentially, you are gambling with my job for something you want.
See why we're annoyed?
[i]That's not true at all. The general view amongst Leavers was "it might be difficult for a while but we will manage".[/I]
Yep, that's exactly what I said.
With a 'while' been 5-10 years, which is what you have also accepted previously, and most Leavers idea of 'manage', is let someone else sort it out.
The RemIners totally misjudged the impact of their ludicrous Armageddon predictions
You have claimed that most Leavers weren't taken in by the ludicrous £350m pledge, so perhaps you can also see that most Remainers weren't taken in by the more extreme Armageddon / instant-world-war-3 / plague of locusts predictions?
Personally speaking I voted to Remain because I felt that on balance it offered the best overall future, both economically and socially.
in a true Brit way Leavers just saw it as total bollix
Again with the faux-patriotism - only Leavers are "true Brits" says our man in France.
The RemIners totally misjudged the impact of their ludicrous Armageddon predictions - in a true Brit way Leavers just saw it as total bollix
no the remainers were aware that it would be hard times for little or no benefit. That the problem in the UK is not and has never been brussels. The issue is Westminster.
The only good thing that canfrom this cluster****, Westminster will have no one to blame, sadly they will find someone! It is the political way!!
in a true Brit way Leavers just saw it as total bollix
I absolutely adore the way youve used blind patriotism to justify wilful ignorance
That's not true at all. The general view amongst Leavers was "it might be difficult for a while but we will manage".
The Brexiters I know thought a while was 1 or 2 years, not a decade if we are lucky. So are now shocked when it gets pointed out that their kids in Primary school will more than likely have left secondary school by the time this is sorted out.
i am wondering Jamba just how far right / nationalist you are?
You come across as ok (if deluded and misguided) most of the time and then every so often a Mosley-esque comment comes out.
Also a lot of your comments seem anti-others rather than pro-British. True patriotism celebrates what is good in your country (and others) recognises one's own faults and denigrates no one. You don't always fit that bill.
Now I appreciate that given the way the country is going post-June, you have become more and more entrenched and inflexible, but you need to open your mind to the possibilities that are out there, away from the dogmatic doctrine of EU bad, foreigners suspicious and isn't it great when European organisations struggle that you've adopted as your persona on here.
I don't believe it anyway. If you were quite as anti-European as you come across surely you wouldn't be living the life you claim to.
And as a side note I've noticed Chewkw's standard of English (and ability to string an argument together) is far better on other threads. There is a distinct possibility none of these guys actually believe what they post.
Richc - the Brexiters I know have gone very quiet and worried looking with regard to the future
Here is one investment outfit that has already left and the quotes pull no punches. Spin this leavers
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/investment-bank-pulled-money-out-britain-because-of-brexit-carnegie-a7390356.html
And the leavers in government are being put nicely in their place by the EU
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/01/liam-fox-pre-brexit-deal-setback-european-union
This is all going exactly as predicted by the sensible amongst us. The UK will get no help at all from the EU and the financial disaster is just unfolding.
Actually tbf, a trade deal between UK and EU is so obviously in everyones interest, that some form of compromise is highly likely, but it will come with strings attached, not the freebie that Fox would imagine
The UK will get no help at all from the EU and the financial disaster is just unfolding.
More to the point, the EU will quite deliberately send us into a recession 'pour encourager les autres'
Worth also remembering that all the elements in the UK who have the real power and run the country (big business, financial sector, landowners, press, MPs, central bank) wanted us to remain... and if a minority of (largely disempowered) voters think they can get something like this to happen against the wishes of that set of opponents then they're truely naive.
I suspect it'll never actually happen. We'll get squeezed so tightly or the process managed so incompetently that we scream for mercy and beg for another referendum... My worry is that the Brexit camp is so obstinate that we'll have to be suffering really quite badly before they're prepared to accept defeat.
My parents voted out (they're typical hardline Tory loyalists) and they've spent their lifetimes cutting off their noses to spite their faces 'on a matter of principle' - they're absolute experts at it and even massive harm to others washes over them as being of no concern... they're not likely to change this habit with brexit IMO
As THM says it's not in the EU's interests to have our economy shrink. Cos theirs will too.
From the rEU's point of view, the best way to make us look stupid and them good is to have a Norway style deal. As in, we still have to stick to all the rules for practical reasons, we still have to pay, but we get no say in how it's run.
Take what we have now and make it slightly worse - less access for less (but some) money, no influence and some (if not complete) FoM
And we will look back and go WTF was that all about
The RemIners totally misjudged the impact of their ludicrous Armageddon predictions
I'm beginning to think you're just pulling off the most elaborate trolling of all time.
20% devaluation of our currency
The reintroduction of QE
Significant increase in racist hate crimes
Etc
And the real kicker is the thing hasn't even properly started yet!
@igm would be very happy to meet up one day and discuss, said the same to Junky btw. The Leave Campaign had a tag line "EU No. Europe Yes". Me all over. Pro immigration but with visa control open to the world (not just our predominantly white neighbours). Pro free trade with Europe and elsewhere however that does not require a (huge) budget, a political infrastructure, a legal system with jurisdiction over our courts on non-trade issues.
Boarding overall the Economic news is better than predicted, currency move works with pros (more exports, less imports) and cons (inflation)
QE is a tool, Bundesbank resisted it for EU/ECB in what is widely acknowledged as a mistake
Hate crime - disgraceful, police and legal system should crack down hard - Government & Opposition should acknowledge issue was swept under the carpet and mismanaged for too long
There was a trade report from MarkIt today which said exports where strong and growing buoyed by a weaker £ and that had meant strong job creation. The flip side is higher import prices which will at some stage have to be passed on via higher prices or lower profits.
What a lot of the brexiters (and perhaps others) are missing is that, just as politics can trump economic interest in the UK (hence the vote for brexit) it can also work the same way for the EU27, who might well not feel able to offer a good deal to the UK even if that means a bit of extra pain for them. We are far more vulnerable than they are. A simple break with no deal might not be be optimal for them, but it would be a far bigger problem for us. They have their own electorates to worry about/pander to.
via higher prices or lower profits
I wonder which it will be.
That'll show those liberal elites! Oh wait, it'll actually just screw over those already struggling. Still, other people's sacrifice is what it's all about!
@igm would be very happy to meet up one day and discuss, said the same to Junky btw.
I'd be up for a meet up. I'm in London too occasionally, don't think Junkyard ever is 🙂
Pro immigration but with visa control open to the world
Visas are more off-putting than you think they are.
Hate crime - disgraceful, police and legal system should crack down hard
Not going to do much is it? Better to help people not want to do it in the first place. Maybe.. promoting integration and improving conditions for those who feel dispossessed...?
What a lot of the brexiters (and perhaps others) are missing is that, just as politics can trump economic interest in the UK (hence the vote for brexit) it can also work the same way for the EU27, who might well not feel able to offer a good deal to the UK even if that means a bit of extra pain for them. We are far more vulnerable than they are. A simple break with no deal might not be be optimal for them, but it would be a far bigger problem for us. They have their own electorates to worry about/pander to.
There was a chap a few weeks ago on R4, some ambassador type, saying, the EU project is much more than the "financials" to Europeans and they won't betray it's Ideals even if it results them losing out money wise, and it would be unwise for us to assume they will go for the "They need us as much as we need them" argument.
[url= https://twitter.com/bbcr4today/status/789476023469543424 ]found it Ex EU commissioner Lord Hill [/url]
Imagine Scotland had voted to leave. Would we wish them well and set up trading deals that were beneficial to them as we needed their oil.
Or.......would it be national priority number one to **** them over as comprehensively as possible even to our own detriment?
Would jock bashing be a sure fire way to get reelected, would those bloody scots replace the weather and lady Di as the moron press' favourite topic?
I've never had reason to expect any different treatment from Europe towards us. There are ****wit politicians pandering to the lowest needs of ****wits everywhere.
Right from the start, the EU was largely a political project with its roots in cooperation and prevention of war. That economics has since overtaken this is arguably a measure of its success.
I would find it very hard to blame the Germans etc if/when it all goes tits up. They can hardly be expected to not act in their own perceived interests.
And the first bike company casualty is in!!
http://www.bikebiz.com/news/read/brexit-blamed-for-redundancies-at-planet-x/020270
Sensible man Lord Hill and makes the point well.
Jamba, moly, sounds good. Pub?
And Jamba, I've said it and I've meant it, I don't think you really are as jingoistic as you sometimes come across. I think you're frustrated by events, and don't always read back what you've written. And sometimes you assert opinion as fact - but then there's a few of us on here who do that for a living.
You're also clearly deluded and misguided - but you probably think the same of some others on here (maybe even me).
If we're in the same town I'm definitely up for a pint.
PS - you do realise that 90% of the arguments you make could also be made about Westminster and Holyrood - by a different advocate. I was against breaking that trading union too.
Brexit the ultimate scapegoat. US business closed in January, I imagine they shut it down in anticipation of the Referendum annoucement in March.
Lord Hill was our EU Commissioner who quit as soon as the result was in. For him to take a pro-EU stance is haddky a shocker.
If I may say so people here are speaking of Europe in terms of the Comission and political classes. Amongst the people there is a significant and growing eurosceptism, with elections in 2016/17 we don't know how the landscape will look.
@zippy If Scotland had become independent Scotland would have 10% of the oil and UK 90% - discussed at length on the thread.
@igm Would be very happy to meet, logistics suggest it might not be so soon. Not Jingoistic just wanting to prioritise our citizens over others in what I believe is an increasingly dangerous economic situation. That plus the long list of other issues I have with the EU 🙂
[img] 
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zippy If Scotland had become independent Scotland would have 10% of the oil and UK 90% - discussed at length on the thread
Sorry, I've missed this in the thread. explain it.
If the defination of discussed is " claimed by Jamby" on the indy thread and laughed at by everybody else,then yes it was discussed. But then he also suggested annexing the Faslane sub base if Scotland voted yes. Why oh why does he make these statements as if they are facts?
Inflation now predicted for 4% next year...
jambalaya - Member
Brexit the ultimate scapegoat.
yes
I imagine that a company with very tight margins that buys bike components from the far east is totally unaffected by the pounds collapse 🙄
Jamba, moly, sounds good. Pub?
Yes, but I'm stuck in Cardiff for the next few weeks at least.
Or could do a bike ride 🙂
Inflation now predicted for 4% next year...
Same level as in 2011 - did we have a thread then ? I am not saying that won't cause some issues but rising import prices will encourage us to buy less imported goods
I would agree Planet-X was low margin £15-20m sales and £100k profit/loss over last 2 years. Business was
not working is 99% of explanation. 1% Brexit excuse
@duckman - UK doesn't need to annex Faslane it would just not be part of an Independent Scotland either forever or like HK let to UK for 100+ years. As I have said many times just treat every post of mine as IMO
@molgrips you'd have to have the patience of a Saint to do a ride with me atm, ask
TMH how slow I am normally and that's when I was modestly fit. Avgeraging 1 ride every 6 weeks of 20k for last 6 months 🙁
I am not saying that won't cause some issues but rising import prices will encourage us to buy less imported goods
Great when the UK isn't making that much, so inflation will rise, if it was inflation in isolation then maybe it wouldn't be worth a thread but a bank leaving, price rises, pound falling economic uncertainty etc. do warrant discussion.
As for Planet X the business was working in some ways, over the last 2 years have they not acquired a number of brands - hence profit not a great short term indicator of health in a long game. Low £ has however heavily dented their business model, wait until the rest of the 2017 pricing rolls in.
Oh come on..we had the worlds biggest financial collapse back in the 30s and how many threads got started on that?
We are merely experiencing a bump on the road to nirvana.
@zippy I am glad you agree then 🙂 Nirvana Cycles my favourite shop
@mike these issues are just a reminder that we should NEVER have allowed ourselves to become so intwined with the disaster that is EU.
As for a bump in the road I believe the eurozone debt crises will make the 2007-8 financial crises look like a small pothole
@mike these issues are just a reminder that we should NEVER have allowed ourselves to become so intwined with the disaster that is EU.
What's the connection? The reaction is to the UK pursuing an isolationist way forward with no plan.
I believe the eurozone debt crises will make the 2007-8 financial crises look like a small pothole
Good job we aren't in the Eurozone then!
As for what you believe.... That's been repetedly shown to be complete fantasy, eg Jambafact #752 America only has privately funded scientific research, (infact it has the largest state budget for research in the world)
@molgrips you'd have to have the patience of a Saint to do a ride with me atm
We're still arguing with you aren't we? 🙂
Re Planet-X - a low margin importer, so it's obvious that they will suffer from a 20% drop in the currency in which they sell stuff. The simplest of all maths. Now you might say they were being irresponsible to run so close to the wind, but still, when you are importing you suddenly have 20% less money so it's hardly a stretch to see how Brexit has caused them major problems directly.
@mike these issues are just a reminder that we should NEVER have allowed ourselves to become so intwined with the disaster that is [s]EU[/s] brexit.
Fixed that for you. You're welcome!
As for what you believe.... That's been repeatedly shown to be complete fantasy,
Don't forget Clinton has had a stroke, that is a classic Jambafact
A terrifying article in the Guardin today, just confirming what we all know. The people in charge of the decision making process in governments are fanatics! Who don't want anything as inconvenient as evidence or common sense getting in the way of their zealotry. With one exception. For now.....
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/02/mark-carney-brexit-bolsheviks-new-target-chancellor ]After Mark Carney, the Brexit Bolsheviks have a new target[/url]
This sums up the Leave headbangers perfectly....
[i]The leaders of the leave campaign faced the nation with the solemn indignation of children whose Christmas present arrives in fiddly parts, batteries not included. Years of pester power had delivered a cherished gift to the Tory right, but they wanted someone else to make it work before they could play with it.[/i]
Jamb you are so totally wrong and out of touch. Head For The Hills are far better.
Moly, Jamba - how's about a London-Paris-Brussels run?
(In fact we could throw it open to all on here and see if more energy goes into pedalling or arguing - bet it quickly becomes pedalling)
I'd include Edinburgh, Belfast and Cardiff but that's starting to sound like a Grand Tour.
Not enough riding, Jamba? Step away from 'tinerweb, stay out of politics and get back on the bike. 32km commute before work today for me.
Moly, Jamba - how's about a London-Paris-Brussels run?
Love the idea.
Will take some planning though. Small family and all that. How far is it?
I'm in! Show the rest of Europe we're not all fanatic right wing nationalists. It's been 2 years since my last big Europe tour.
London-Brussels a lot shorter, doable in a single day I think.
Where are you guys based igm, fourbanger?
I might wear this:
[img] 
?v=1412947517[/img]
Reading.
Newhaven - Dieppe is a handy ferry.
Reading.
I'll pick you up on the way through. On my bike 🙂
Where are you?