[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I think we can all agree that leave or stay, we do need tighter immigration controls, for non-EU citizens at the least

I think you missed the intended humour kb !!

I'm undecided, but the calibre of people supporting our exit is pushing me towards staying in.

What a gaggle of shisters...
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[i]teamhurtmore - Member
However, despite the normal rhetoric, increases in immigration actually increased both the supply and demand for labour and hence tends to benefit wages or at worse has no effect.[/i]

I see your point and would be inclined to agree if I could see wages increasing. Frustratingly I don't see the lowest paid receiving any significant increases, while the board room salaries are colossal, imo.

It's the old management issue. Management are great at reducing all costs, but themselves.

[i]teamhurtmore - Member
I think you missed the intended humour kb !![/i]

Quite. Although I suspect, in the case of that specific post, we would need an immigration policy for extra terrestrials...
Evidently we don't have one, yet.
😀

[i]ratnips - Member
I'm undecided[/i]

Judging by that selection of photos I'm sure you are already decided.
😉

I'm undecided, but the calibre of people supporting our exit is pushing me towards staying in.

It should be the issues you're basing your decision on not the shower on either side that have nailed their colours to the mast. The sad truth is that the decision to stay or leave Europe is going to be based on personalities (or lack of).

[i]I suppose I'm a bit of a Luddite. I'd like to see a return to an economy that provides the majority of our needs from within our own borders. I'd like to see countries and communities build up their own resilience to free market trends and see an improvement in aspirations and opportunities for the young.[/i]

I'd be quite interested in when you believe any of the above ever occurred, ie what year are you wanting to return to?

Victorian Values maybe 😉

Solo - Member

Judging by that selection of photos I'm sure you are already decided.

For balance, I know he wants us in... 😉
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Someone could include a rogues gallery of MP's wanting us to stay in the EU as neither seem to be interested in how it would benefit us, only their self interested career options (That I am decided on 😀 )

I'd like to see a return to an economy that provides the majority of our needs from within our own borders.

@yossarian based on that quote alone I'd see you as a strong Leave. In any case why not have a read of this, plenty of other material too [url= http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/our_case ]Vote Leave Take Control- Oir Case[/url]

Chaps its really not rocket science to predict the behaviour of EU Governments to protect their own interests in respect of the significant amounts of money the 5th richest country in the world and its citizens spend in their country. Those interests are not best served by imposing barriers on those people spending that money.

I have zero interest in working in France, I will not need a French passport to live here either post a EU exit. Its ludicrous scaremongering to suggest such restrictions would be imposed post a Brexit

@dalesjoe and @sbob, yes indeed that's my biggest worry, a Brexit would be hugely damaging to the EU superstate project, in fact probably to the EU as it stands today and economically damaging for the EU and thus they will go into hyperdrive to accomodate us post a Leave vote. Thus my fear is Parliament ignores the result and we stay in. There is precedent here, the Norwegans voted to stay out of the EU but the pro EU government signed up to most of the EU conditions anyway.

@tmh, you cannot possibly extrapolate positively the impact on the UK of EU migration over the past 30 years into the future. The nature of of the EU and its composition are very different today. All the new members are relatively poor, the impact will inevitably much less beneficial than it was in the past. Again Poland is a great example, they joined the EU and we now have 1m Poles here, no other new member has anything like that impact. of course some of those people are highly skilled but many are not undermining wages and working conditions of British workers. Also as quoted here on STW unless you are earning £38k pa you are taking out of the system more than you are putting in.

As far as new members go the elephant in the room is of course Turkey, a country which has tried and failed to join previously and which has made its support of EU action on Syrian migrants conditional on the prioritisation of its EU membership negotiations. Also from October 2016 Turkish citizens will have freedom of movement within the EU without the need for visas, add that to Schengen and its a signiificant concern. I struggle to see how the EU would cope with Turkey as a member but experience shows us that doesn't mean politically orientated decisions supporting the "superstate project" don't get taken.

Guardian has a list of how Tory MPs will be campaigning. Very glad to see mine will be supporting Leave, clealry the weight of my email to her was a factor in her decsion 😉

Chaps its really not rocket science to predict the behaviour of EU Governments to protect their own interests in respect of the significant amounts of money the 5th richest country in the world and its citizens spend in their country. Those interests are not best served by imposing barriers on those people spending that money.

If there was no benefit [ or cost] to being in the market then lots of others will leave /stop paying so its really not in their best interest to acquiesce to our demands.
Of course its difficult, its uncharted territory and a new set of circumstances

The least likely outcome is we divorce them, stop paying, and they just go hey dont worry keep all the good stuff from the marriage [ lets us pick alone] throw the rest away and we will keep with you because we need you. Its fanciful in the extreme.

FWIW they are over 50% of our export and we are under 10 % of thiers

Its not really them who have the greatest sense of urgency to get a deal and its obvious who has the stronger negotiating position

CLearly we will still trade, clearly, initially it will have a negative impact. Whether we will have the right to remain in the EU countries and work there after we leave is at best speculative and at worst you just refusing to address the real issues/questions posed by leaving.
One of the clear reasons we are leaving is immigration. you really think we can "send them home" and they wont do anything?

Jambas, mon ami, I see the problem is your source material so thanks for the link. 😉 so the link starts with the easily falsifiable assertion that we have lost control of vital policies (total poppy cock as noted above ) and continues with the idea of "supremacy of EU Law" (ditto). Despite this starting nonsense I skim read the rest to arive at the wonderfully comic conclusion that "if we vote to leave, we can change the agenda" - no really.

Re immigration far better to start from factual base points than the fantasies so beloved on the likes of UKIP

Again the idea that Poles are undermining wages is easily falsifiable - the only eronous starting point for that narrative is to ignore the fact that labour has both supply and demand.

Other than that......

BTW loved the reference to convicted criminals at the bottom of page 32. This is getting to close to Scotland's Future levels of nonsense.

That will be why we have complete unanimity about what will happen afterwards and why the Brexit have explained it so categorically exactly what will happen rather than vaguely tell us it will be fine as they can be held to ransom by us.

Unless you can predict exactly how the EU will change in the future with us as a part of it, I think it's a little unfair to berate someone else for not being able to predict the future with us out of it. 💡

I predict that fear will keep us in the EU.
Certainly most of us on STW are of the age where we fear change anyhow. 😆

Unless you can predict exactly how the EU will change in the future with us as a part of it, I think it's a little unfair to berate someone else for not being able to predict the future with us out of it.

Its probably fairer to say that leaving is more unknown than staying. There will be some interesting times if Scotland votes stay but rUK tries to make it leave. INteresting if the eu say they will allow it to stay and recognise them as a separate state. UNlikely but not outlandish.

* in the sense that no one can predict the future but I never claimed they could in the strictest sense you mean there.

Also as quoted here on STW unless you are earning £38k pa you are taking out of the system more than you are putting in.

Obviously you'd be balancing that against not having to pay the costs of raising from birth? Those are quite significant.

I will not need a French passport to live here either post a EU exit.

"Let them eat cake." You have no idea what restrictions there may be on Brits living abroad post-Brexit, certainly more than pre-Brexit.

DrJ Brits buy property and "live" in the US, Switzerland and Singapore as I pointed out despite having no legal right to do so. Unless the EU is going to introduce draconian restrictions which have massive negative econimic consequences for themselves there is going to be very little to no change at all.

JY we can agree to differ then on who has the stronger negotiating position, you are conveninetly ignoring the massive trade deficit we have with the EU. Also 50% of our exports is counting Switzerland as part of the EU. Look at these charts, Germany we buy £56bn we sell £31bn. I am arguing that puts us in driving seat and Germany as the most powerful EU country very much aligned with the UK interests as we saw in the recent negotiations.

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@tmh I couldn't find your MP on the leave/remain/undecided campaigning list. Perhaps you could make your points to them assuming they are Leave ? Quick scan showed 109 Tory MPs campaigning for Leave, 120 Remain and a big chunk Undecided. You didn't reply to my "immigrant benefit projection" point.

We roughly know who those MPs are in BritLand campaigning for "IN" or "OUT but who are those people in charged of EU-SSR?
[b]
But who are the "management" team in the EU parliament? [/b]

Yes, in management. I define them as management but nastier ... If you are guessing then you are in trouble.

These are bunch of dangerous shadowy zombie maggots that need to be feed ... they are parasitic. They are pest!

MMwwhhhaaaa! 😈

Good to see the ZMs are back. I've missed them.

DrJ Brits buy property and "live" in the US, Switzerland and Singapore as I pointed out despite having no legal right to do so. Unless the EU is going to introduce draconian restrictions which have massive negative econimic consequences for themselves there is going to be very little to no change at all.

There you go again. As you well know the French attempted to impose taxes on foreign owners that were ruled illegal for EU citizens
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11468615/French-tax-on-Britons-second-homes-illegal.html

Non-EU citzens are not allowed to buy property in Denmark without specific authorisation.

If your acquaintances buy property without a legal right then they risk having to give up that property if the winds change.

You just don't know what the situation will be post-Brexit. This is the kind of dishonest argument I referred to above when I accepted thm's request to edit my post. You simply don't seem able to help yourself.

FWIW they are over 50% of our export and we are under 10 % of thiers

Its been pointed out before that these figures don't hold up to scrutiny, due to the 'Rotterdam effect'

If a product is made in Britain and exported to China, but ships via Rotterdam or Antwerp, or any other major continental shipping hub, or via the channel tunnel, then it is potentially registered as a export to the EU. Nobody has been able to quantify accurately how much this skews the figures.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.htmld
@ninfan

JY we can agree to differ then on who has the stronger negotiating position, you are conveninetly ignoring the massive trade deficit we have with the EU.

No one credible is going to think the smaller economy more reliant on the larger economy for exports has the best negotiating position.

slowoldman - Member
Good to see the ZMs are back. I've missed them.

I am monitoring Junkyard now coz he is leaking brain juice and might contaminate the place so need to contain the spread. 😈

Junkyard ... as Gandalf the grey once said " ... you shall not pass! ..." to the ... yes, Gandalf is saying that to ... 😈

You didn't reply to my "immigrant benefit projection" point.

No because I didn't understand it nor can I predict the future with accuracy. What I do know is that 98% of Poles are here to work and or study and I have no problem with that. Plus I support the freedom of people, capital and goods and services across Europe. I have also refuted the false claim that immigration has a negative impact on wages. It doesn't.

We have experimented with isolationalism and protectionism before. It's was a disaster. We do not need to repeat the mistakes of history.

teamhurtmore - Member
I have also refuted the false claim that immigration has a negative impact on wages. It doesn't.

We have experimented with isolationalism and protectionism before. It's was a disaster. We do not need to repeat the mistakes of history.

I don't. My experience is completely opposite to yours.

I come from a place where the politicians sold us, gave up power to centralise govt, to become a federal state or part of (we are Union like you lot in the UK) and the result is the total destruction of the virgin forest with the locals have no say at all. Our power has practically been eroded to such an extend we have no say in matters regarding our own lives.

You think your EU ideal is better than our political lot in the far east? Crikey ... 😯

Cameron gave Boris a "welcome to the big leagues" monstering in Parliament today.

Some Government figures reported by the Guardian today

EU nations claim 10% of the £25bn bill for in work benefits
EU nationals make up 6% of the workforce

So roughly they are nearly twice as likely to claim in work benefits that are UK nationals and non-EU immigrants (or theynare claiming twice as much as theynare in the lowest paid work). Seems pretty clear therefore EU nationals are predominantly in low paid work (undermining UK wages) thus taking much more from the country than they put in

That's a series of non sequiturs and fallacies

Right, I'm a little confused about something, so maybe one of the great minds can explain for me...

If we leave the single market, why would it stop us buying things from Germany, I'm fairly sure it won't be the Germans doing that. As I understand it there is nothing to stop us buying goods from China, or anywhere else outside the EU for that matter, it's just that our government impose import duties and VAT on them, which all adds complication. So surely if we as a country want to continue buying things from the EU we are perfectly fine to do so, and our government can keep the tax rates as they are.

Although as soon as we are out of the EU, we won't have a reciprocal VAT agreement anymore will we? So we'll then have to pay VAT on it anyway, but then maybe have to go about claiming back the tax from the EU country... it all sounds like it's going to get complicated...

But does that sound about right for us buying from them?

And the other way round... if a company in the EU want buy something, wouldn't they essentially look to buy from inside their single market before looking outside? Isn't that part of the idea of having a single market, to promote those who are part of it, and exclude to a certain extent those who aren't by adding import duties?

So, as soon as we are out of their club, surely they be very happy to sell things to us, after all it new money coming into their club. However, buying things from us then becomes more expensive as they add import duties, so becomes less favourable.

Now, I am sure we'll be able to negotiate some kind of deal which gives us some access to this club, but I fail to see how that will come out in us getting a deal even close to what we have now. Come to think of it, haven't we just tried some negotiation... surely if we had that strong a position, wouldn't we have come away from the recent talks with some far better deal? In order to get a fantastic deal, don't we need to have a better bargaining position then they do?

So, have I missed something vital which will mean we are actually in a much stronger position than I thought? And if so, does anyone know what it is, and why we haven't already used it to improve our position at the recent talks?

Yours,

Confused of Rugeley

If we leave the single market, why would it stop us buying things from Germany, I'm fairly sure it won't be the Germans doing that. As I understand it there is nothing to stop us buying goods from China, or anywhere else outside the EU for that matter, it's just that our government impose import duties and VAT on them, which all adds complication

On top of that the UK will remove itself from any of the negotiations that decide what the EU regs on goods imported will be so we will have to follow all the rules but have no say on them - and probably pay for the privilege.

And if so, does anyone know what it is, and why we haven't already used it to improve our position at the recent talks?

[quote=konabunny ]That's a series of non sequiturs and fallacies

and yet it is all 100 % correct

Seems pretty clear therefore EU nationals are predominantly in low paid work (undermining UK wages

Seems pretty clear therefore EU nationals are predominantly in low paid work (undermining UK wages) thus taking much more from the country than they put in

We would really need to look at the entire set of EU nationals - ie the including the 90% who dont claim these benefits in order to make that assessment. When we do this the results are clear and they are net contributors- KB is correct this is a non sequitur. Why does that need explaining to you ? its not hard to realise you need to look at them all and not a sub set; basic stuff dude, basic. 😕

Sorely missed, eh Junky:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/may/17/exit-europe-from-the-left

So by getting rid of all these economic migrants workers conditions will become fantastic or perhaps it will be a perfect excuse to cut all benefits and tell people to work in the vacant positions... It won't raise wages and companies will be free (er) to screw people over...

@kona, you win fhe English language award for the thread. However those are government figures (remember they are vote Remain) quoted by the Guardian (Remain). Rock solid, 100% factual type. Feel free to give us your interpretation. JY you can play too, see Sports Direct for effectiveness of minimum wage and EU workers. I'm comfortable with my analysis.

@funky. Here is my 2 pence. The situation you describe on a exit and import/export duties is the situation we'd have if there was no trade deal. Even in that scenario local VAT is pYabke by the UK and by the EU countries (their vat is similar or higher to ours). Then we have import/export duties. Given we buy £89bn per anum more from them than they buy from us the UK woukd be the big winner in an import/export duty trade war.

So what Insay isnthe most likely scenario is we agree a free trade deal, ie no import/export duties. Perhaps it won't be as extensive as we currently have but its not like the EU is the only or best supplier of every product or service and a less restrictive deal would benefit us. Again given we buy much more from them than they buy from us, not surprising as we are much richer country than the vast majority of the EU inparticular recent and any future joiners like Turkey.

Also the EU is in a deep economic sh1t (as my wife would say) with the huge overhang of an imminent Greek defsult with losses of €150-200bn to be shared out by members, contagion to other weak members and the grave risk to their entrie project as one of the worlds richest countries opts out. No doubt an EU imposion would be bad for the Uk but the impact woukd be far less if we where out than in.

Virtually all the talk so far (in general, not just on here) seems to be based around economic arguments. I wish we could hear a bit more about the other topics eg UK sovereignty. Personally if we had to suffer economically in the short term I'd find that acceptable if we gained in the long term.

DC claims to have got us an opt out of this "ever closer union" malarkey. However the "no vote" seems adamant that this agreement is not worth the paper it's written on. No wonder those of us who are undecided are confused! I must admit though I can't help but think a lot of the concessions are very much open to interpretation.

Everyone always focuses on money. "It's the economy, stupid". Anyone can make the figures say what they want - frankly, like the stock market, it's too complicated for a single person to understand.

I like to lift my head up from my dinner plate and look at the horizon, so I'll vote to stay in because I like foreign people. I like them living here and I like visiting them.

Obviously very simplistic and idealistic and some will say naive, but it's a principle thing for me.

@ninfan indeed, many trade unionists hold the same view. Corbyn himself has been euroskeptic for many years. I do find it ironic that so many left side voters want to rely on the leaders of 28 other countreis to make our employment law. Surely the best way to make our employment law is to win an election by having a compelling manifesto?

I like them living here and I like visiting them.

I also find it ironic that the SNP are so desperate for Scotland to become independent and yet in the event of a brexit want to join the EU and be governed by Brussels?!

I also find it ironic that the SNP are so desperate for Scotland to become independent and yet in the event of a brexit want to join the EU and be governed by Brussels?!

Why, it's not actually the same thing?

I to would like to hear more about the non business side of the argument,personally I am fed up with big biz and globalisation and I would like to see a lot more in house training, companies allways want to hire a ready made candidate and never train people to fill thier needs,business has become very short term in its outlook great maybe for the bottom line today but socialy destabalizing for the community's it operates in,

I dont live in a business I live in a country of people a society.

Ironic in that they want to run their own house and yet are happy to sign up to be run from Brussels. Agree with the above, I'm far more interested in smaller, local business rather than if some global company will see a drop in their huge profits for a few years.

Djoe - there is lots of discussions on sovereignty, most of them ill-informed scaremongering eg, the EU sets our employment law- utter tosh.

CMD, may have oversold his hand but:

- we have a carve out from any move to closer union with specific regards to the UK

- EU parliaments can block EU legislation together

- a new mechanism is being created to review existing EU laws to ensure that decisions are taken at the national level where possible and only at the EU level where necessary (subsidiarity) and that only the minimum action necessary is taken to achieve regulatory objectives (proportionality)

- national security remains the sole responsibility of the UK Government

- on policing, immigration and asylum policy, judgement on whether we take part in European-level action rests clearly with the UK Government and Parliament

Re immigration: the scaremongering about wages is dependent on people falling for what is known to economists as the "lump of labour fallacy" - more simply that the number of jobs in an economy is fixed. IT ISN'T.

What generally happens is that migration increases both the supply AND DEMAND for labour, leading to increased investment, more jobs and higher wages. Understanding both supply and demand gets an A*, relying only on supply only a C- I'm afraid.

Who gets to vote? I should imagine all the expats will be voting stay.
If the poll was resolved by newspaper sales would the In papers win or Out?
Why would newspaper owners that dont even live in the UK be so bothered about our sovereignty?
My folks will vote Out. They buy the Mail.

Re Scotland - you are correct, the yS position was illogical for sure.

However, that doesn't mean that you cannot be pro-Union but anti the €. A common currency requires (1) that the area in question fulfils the criteria for a common currency (UK yes, EU no) and (2) full monetary and fiscal union (remember Mark Carney's warning to the Scots). We have this in the UK and the system works well especially given the high level of devolved power that exists to complement the above.

The folly of the yS argument is clear - the EU does not satisfy the criteria for a common currency area and even if it does full monetary and fiscal union does not exist (yet) - hence the failures that are all to obvious to see. So in the desperation to leave a well-functioning union, yS were prepared to accept a lose-lose scenario. Extraordinary incompetence on their behalf.

[url= http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06091 ]HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY EU/UK ECONOMICS RESEARCH PAPER[/url]