So, we’re expected to be worse off, in terms equivalent to closing down the whole of the Welsh economy, if we leave with Johnson’s WA rather than cancelling Brexit.
Still cries of “Project Fear” from the die hards. Because the government’s own figures show that… er… who needs figures?!?
The current mess is already making us worse off. Leaving with Johnson’s WA will make us worse off than leaving with May’s WA. Leaving with May’s WA would make us worse off then staying in the EEA. Leaving the EU to be in the EEA would make us worse off than keeping full EU membership.
Lots of options there. Staying an EU member makes the most sense economically… but there are lots of less damaging approaches than Johnson’s that politicians can pursue if they want to try and find a compromise to put to us.
it said 3.5% in the long run
Selective quoting of headline that suits your narrative.
Unfortunately it didn’t
Lie.
which I think they mean 10 years
Making stuff up.
Entirely unsurprising you can't grasp things like that - psuedo-intellectualism at its best.
So a report says that we'll be worse off, and your rebuttal is that we will indeed be worse off but less so than other posters have interpreted? Have I got that right?
Sounds awesome, sign me up.
Theres a very good reason Johnson is too scared to produce any impact assessments for his Brexit deal
because like that study mentioned shows, the country will be many £billions poorer
Austerity for another decade, yaay, Brexit !!!
How many hospitals and/or schools is 3.5%?
It would be nice to know in those sort of terms what it costs to do something entirely stupid and self-inflicted.
When the Leave fanbois are reduced to having their best 'sell' as "it won't be as bad as you thought, but it will still be bad" then I think we have reached peak stupidity.
Tell you what, why don't you slam a kitchen drawer on your hand when you get home tonight and then take some solace IF (and only 'if', mind) it doesn't hurt quite as much as you thought it might?
No doubt all those who retired at 60 and 65 will salute us proud patriots who will be working beyond 72.
You ****s didn't even fight in the war or have to make any sacrifice for your brexit.
It's us poor sods who will work til death who will pay for it.
**** you , you ignorant selfish ****s.
So, do I fill this in now or wait a bit? Seems an awful waste of a perfectly good ditch, especially given the significance of today
[img] 
[/img]
No doubt all those who retired at 60 and 65 will salute us proud patriots who will be working beyond 72.
Give it a rest. Less of the "ALL". I and most of my mates are over 60 and I know of 1 brexiter amongst them.
So, do I fill this in now or wait a bit?
Keep it. Even if Johnson doesnt want it it might come in useful when Francois and co explode. Since surely they at least will keep their word as officer and gentlemen?
In other news, Susanna Reid was on form yesterday.
https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1189457934125846528
EDIT: Weird embedding, I mean the lower video.
How many hospitals and/or schools is 3.5%
Who cares? The sensible thing to do is write something like 'brexit had already cost 5% of GDP, and will cost 7% of GDP year on year - let's fund our schools instead' on the side of many buses up and down the country. That'll get the f@333ers thinking about how must this is costing, and continuing to talk about it.
Write to your leave mp and ask how much income and council tax will go down after brexit.
How soon will your local roads be fixed as we all know we pay for smooth euro roads.
Basically get them to acknowledge that things are going to be worse.
And, if you do that, they will ignore you/fob you off, or will start thinking that they are being threatened and get you visited by plod.
Basically get them to acknowledge that things are going to be worse.
You are expecting them to be honest?
3.5% is 10x the cost of being in.
Or 12.5million hip replacements a year.
Just sayin...
Over on that Facebook, an Australian asked what's going on with brexit. I replied and it got a bit long, so I thought I'd share.
>>
Brexit: The story so far.
In 2016, in order to try and resolve Tory infighting we had a national opinion poll where the public were promised sunny uplands, unicorns and free solid gold houses for everyone. Immediately after the vote it was announced that there was no free money and the unicorn was actually a zebra with an ice cream cone stapled to its forehead. Many people didn't seem to care about this abject lie because they don't like foreigners, or something. David Cameron, the dead-pig-molester who started all this and promised faithfully that he'd see it through whatever the outcome, promptly ran away never to be seen or heard from again until he had a book coming out.
Pretty soon after this it was announced that 17.4 million votes was the will of the people and 16.1 million was we won you lost shut up and get over it two world wars and one world cup doo dah queen mum gawd rest her soul. The word "undemocratic" was redefined to mean "anyone who disagrees with us" and billions of new dictionaries had to be printed.
Three years passed, where the government got busy negotiating brexit by having repeated court cases to try and bypass parliament and generally power grab, in between having elections to attempt to pass the poisoned chalice onto someone else.
At a quarter to midnight on the night before her homework was due in, Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU27, arguably a better deal than anyone had hoped possible. She then took it back to parliament who said "don't like it." Three times. Largely because her deal was broadly what we have currently, only giving up our seat at the table, which is clearly pointless whichever side of the argument you support. Quite why she didn't get parliamentary agreement before jumping on a plane, no-one is quite sure. But anyway.
After being democratically voted in by a hundred thousand mostly old angry white men who'd paid for the privilege of doing so (a third of whom had recently been drafted in by a Leave.EU campaign to rig the vote), Boris Johnson then swept in with bold claims about adding an extra 20,000 police officers to the streets (neatly side-stepping the fact that Tory cuts had already cost us 21,000 officers so we'll still be at a net deficit) and some other fictional bollocks about hospitals or bridges or trains or something. He promised to "get brexit done" in his lunch hour despite the entire cabinet having been paralysed for the last three years, agreed a deal with the EU27 which is basically May's deal only with all those pesky things no-one wants - like workers' rights - crossed out, and had that rejected by parliament too because to some it was demonstrably worse than the one they'd already said no to and to the headbangers it still wasn't brexity enough to make them all multi-billionaires overnight.
Boris promised that he'd rather be dead in a ditch than not leave the EU today. Parliament forced him to ask for a few more weeks, because obviously we can have all this sorted out in a month despite having spunked billions of increasingly valueless pounds up the wall to achieve the square root of **** all for the last three years. Boris did so, with his fingers crossed and a note from his mum saying the big boys made him do it.
So now we get to have this merry dance all over again at the end of January, only Boris has just seemingly called a vote of no confidence in himself so we'll get to have the third general election in almost as many years to achieve who the hell knows what any more, despite leavers shouting repeatedly since 2016 that we can't just keep having votes until we get a result we like (because as any fool knows, once you have a vote the democratic process immediately stops dead which is why the Whigs are still in power).
At the point of me writing this, ditches across the country lie sadly bereft of any lying tub-of-lard philandering cockweasels.
I think that about covers it.
Nailed it
Happy Unbrexit day!!!
What's everyone doing to note this momentous unocassion?
I'm in a conference call.
I’m having a birthday to celebrate. I’m getting some new motorbike thermals for winter, a giant cinnamon whirl instead of a cake, and some new golf clubs although only I know about that. Wife is going away biking with her mates for three days so it’s just me and the boys and we’ll eat what we like and not bother cooking veg and leave the bog seat up all weekend. Now Brexit is over I think I’ve done ok out of it.
I was so looking forward to the pics of a nude Katie Hopkins streaking in public adorned only with strategically placed pics of Nigel.
That hasn't happened and Boris isn't dead in a ditch, so maybe they've sneaked Brexit through on us.
[gagging noise] Is disappoint [/gagging noise]
No rioting or absolute chaos then ?
#we’restillintheEU
Who cares? The sensible thing to do is write something like ‘brexit had already cost 5% of GDP, and will cost 7% of GDP year on year
I’ve already said it once, the general population are economically illiterate. I doubt most people could tell you what GDP stands for, nor how it is calculated. That’s why “Wales” was used as the size of loss to the economy. People sort of know what “Wales” is. I doubt the people of Boston care though - after all they don’t live in Wales 😉
Hard leavers won’t care and use statements like “it’s a cost worth paying” (by someone else). They sadly can’t associate that with things like providing public services. Frankly, I despair. Never wanted a referendum on a subject that was of little interest to the electorate at the time. I do have other options, and am unlikely to be affected, personally, but the economics are truly damming.
BTW manufacturing trade is only a tenth of the economy. Wait till we start arguing about services. Then It will be squeaky bum austerity time.
And little known fact... Ode to Joy was commissioned by Britain as a piece from Beethoven. Great piece, and what foresight on the part of us Brits 😀
No rioting or absolute chaos then ?
Still to come. At the moment I think everyone is in shock that someone sacked twice for lying may just have possibly lied about his ability to do something in order to get the job.
3.5% is 10x the cost of being in
Let’s see your maths..
So who can we have a trade deal with?
Trump says Johnson's Brexit could rule out US trade deal
Oh trump will give us a deal, on condition that Johnson lower standards enough & we allow US pharma to charge NHS US drug prices (currently 4x on average what we pay for same medicine)
Realistically services, tech etc will get priority, so London, & educated remainers will do fine out of it. Manufacturing & agriculture (non- elite leaver jobs, if u will) talks will be, more complex & (politically) painful & take much longer, but without a trade deal they'll slowly wither as part of our economy away anyway.
Johnson's Brexit will end up punishing working leavers far more than remainers
Johnson’s Brexit will end up punishing working leavers far more than remainers
This is exactly why it's been sold to working class people as an opportunity for them. Notice how the language used has changed over the months - no one mentions Sovereignty or taking back control anymore. The language around immigration has become much less subtle it's inferred without being specifically promised that jobs might be easier to come by for working class Leave voters, who either do not understand or do not believe that their rights are to be legislated away.
I've been saying this for months, but the aim of Project Brexit has clearly been to deregulate, stockpile the world's tat and export it to the EU via leaky borders. Think of it as a large, poorly regulated Amazon warehouse with low pay, long working hours and few consumer and environmental protections.
However, the EU aren't playing ball - this is why Johnson is moving towards a much harder Brexit than anything envisaged back in 2016. Plan B involves some sort of anglosphere trade bloc that's heavily deregulated, the hints dropped by prominent Brexit politicians are not so subtle.
Oh trump will give us a deal, on condition that Johnson lower standards enough & we allow US pharma to charge NHS US drug prices (currently 4x on average what we pay for same medicine)
Or we just don't buy the drugs at all as NICE deem them nonviable at the increased cost meaning the people who need them will no longer get them. That is the piece that needs to be publicised in campaign although "Not for sale" is admittedly a bit catchier!
Let’s see your maths..
Here's my stab at it.
First of all let's take a look at National Institute Economic Review which states:
"First, and most important, according to our estimate, GDP will be 3% per cent smaller each year in perpetuity than it would have been had the UK stayed an EU member".
Fairly straightforward googling gives:
GDP for 2018 was approx £2.1 trillion.
3% of that is £63 billion.
Payment to EU is £13 billion after rebate (2018)
EU put £4 billion back into UK funding (2018)
Net EU expenditure £9 billion (2018)
Reduction in GDP/EU membership is 63/9 = 7.
Save 9 billion to lose 63!
Let’s see your maths..
Work out 3.5% of GDP (for some reason copy + paste ignores the .5).
Find out UK net contribution to EU. Hint: UK government figures don't account for all credits.
Divide 3.5% of GDP by net EU contribution.
It's 9.5 times if you want to be pedantic.
Save 9 billion to lose 63!
My numbers agree - I knew them before I asked TBH..
But I wanted to see if the poster was going to cook something up in an attempt to justify their post.
Of course they couldn’t, because they were talking shite..
I think it was on here Scotroutes was stating scottish greens are anti europe. Thats not what their manifesto says
"The Green vision for the EU is for a people’s Europe, protecting workers’ rights, the environment, welcoming refugees and reining in the banks and major corporations. Europe has its flaws but progress is being made, driven significantly by Greens, and Scotland can be a leader for that progress. We want to be at the heart of the EU, working to end the economics of inequality, corporate power and unsustainable growth. These are problems that do not respect borders, and it is through cooperation that we can tackle them."
https://greens.scot/membership-of-the-eu
Of course they couldn’t, because they were talking shite..
The mind boggles...
The mind boggles…
Show your working then which refutes that posted - otherwise you are talking shite & will be treated accordingly as a brainless troll.
I explained it to you.
Address your inability to read and you might get somewhere.
Your first calculation is incorrect.
ONS will provide net EU contribution including private sector credits.
No, you didn’t.
You’ve shown no workings at all & showed no sources for your numbers.
Where’s your maths?
I think Farage is serious about standing in most constituencies and that will really damage the tories badly.
I am now thinking well over a hundred seats to the smaller parties and a hung parliament
So what really do you think his game is? Is it as simple as keeping the gravy train going? There are worse reasons I suppose...
It’s as likely a reason as any other. It’s a well paid job, his ego gets stroked a lot, and if we leave he loses both plus his reason for existing.
ONS will provide net EU contribution including private sector credits.
OK that shows a higher figure than the one I quoted because "HM Treasury also publishes figures on the payments between the EU and the UK government and estimated the net contribution in 2018 to be £8.9 billion. Its figures differ to those reported by the ONS as they are estimates, compared with the final figures used in the ONS publication. Treasury figures are also presented on a cash basis, whereas ONS data are presented on an accruals basis".
So if we use ONS (£11bn) rather than HM Treasury (£9bn) the "lost GDP"/"EU contribution" comes out at just under 6 rather than the 7 I calculated.
Nearly there...
Del
Subscriber
I think Farage is serious about standing in most constituencies and that will really damage the tories badly.
I am now thinking well over a hundred seats to the smaller parties and a hung parliament
So what really do you think his game is? Is it as simple as keeping the gravy train going? There are worse reasons I suppose…
That is exactly his game, as confirmed by people I know who have worked for him.
JP
Sounds like they want to be the new DUP
https://twitter.com/tomjharper/status/1190757904447606789?s=21
https://twitter.com/tomjharper/status/1190764063179132930?s=21
£ paywalled https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-asks-about-dominic-cummings-years-working-in-russia-vl6d0w62z
