Does anyone have a link to how the polls are translating into parliamentary constituencies?
That's what nobody knows this time. Nobody has a spreadsheet for which voters from which parties in which constituencies are remain/leave.
Typically the BP would take more Tory voters than Lab but there are plenty of constituencies where (say) most of the Remainers are Tory, most of the Leavers are Labour. It's all in the air.
I heard a podcast with a polster who reckoned he had a good approximation but he didn't sound that sure and clearly it's totally untested.
Does anyone have a link to how the polls are translating into parliamentary constituencies?
even if Leave voting Labour constituencies that have the Labour MPs that are desperate to vote for Brexit, 2/3rd of Labour voters apparently voted remain
so who knows?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50206257
Unless we have a GE 1st Bassetlaw by-election will test wtf voters think
(BXP took as many voters from Tories as Labour at European elections, but Tories hoovered up all UKIP votes at 2017 GE, but still 10% behind Labour)
Unless we have a GE 1st by-election will test wtf voters think
For sure.
"We've" just elected a solid remainer PPC (Sally Gimson who is married to a Tory - for shits and giggles) in Bassetlaw to replace John Mann. (NEC shipped in non-local)
I'm pretty sure despite being a Labour strong-hold (although close at the last election) the fact that Mann was a rabid leaver - Bassetlaw will go Tory or Brexit party, like neighboring Mansfield.
Decimated by the Tories - but we will vote for you over Labour.
Corbyn's no.1 issue is right here.
The rule book is completely messed up now.
Yeah according to polls swing from Labour -> Tories is about 6% since 2017
With Bassetlaw being 20% above average leave vote during ref that would still be short of the 10% swing Tories would need to take the seat, so would mean a lot of Labour remainers to switch, not saying it wouldnt happen, just that would be a big swing & be all about what the BXP ltd do (they cleaned up at Europeans & would be the very place they'd fancy their chances at getting an MP elected)
We're down to about a 5000 (2017) and trend shrinking majority.
Question is by-election or GE first?
BXP candidate (Debbie Soloman) is a very active campaigner (but deluded in her logic - not that it matters) I must say. It's how much she takes from Tories and Labour.
Yeah according to polls swing from Labour -> Tories is about 6% since 2017
With Bassetlaw being 20% above average leave vote during ref that would still be short of the 10% swing Tories would need to take the seat, so would mean a lot of Labour remainers to switch, not saying it wouldnt happen, just that would be a big swing & be all about what the BXP ltd do
Impossible to predict. For all we know every single Labour voter is a remainer and won't touch Labour *or* the Cons. Or maybe every single Labour voter is a leaver and will hold their nose and vote Tory/BP. Or any other combination.
On top of all that will people bother to vote knowing the opposition is currently in the majority so there will be another election in a very short while.
I think the one thing this by election will show is that it's all impossible to predict right now and there's no such thing as a safe seat.
and there’s no such thing as a safe seat.
I think there are still plenty of safe seats. Its just slightly less than before.
I would be absolutely amazed if any of the seats I have lived in switch (mix of Labour and tory safe seats).
I think the one thing this by election will show is that it’s all impossible to predict right now and there’s no such thing as a safe seat.
All of the above.
I think we're all that messed up now that even I can't remember who to vote for.
finally we're all agreed on something
we live in 'interesting times'
We have an extension!
Pro: Boris dead in a ditch
Con: Katie Hopkins is now going to appear naked with little pics of Nigel in strategic places. The ultimate Halloween horror...
I think we’re all that messed up now that even I can’t remember who to vote for.
Which seat? Some are very hard to make a choice in.
It’s easy here… it has to be Labour.
Pro: Boris dead in a ditch
Con: Katie Hopkins is now going to appear naked with little pics of Nigel in strategic places. The ultimate Halloween horror…
On balance I'd say the former is worth the latter.
As he's a serial lying piece of filthy toerag I can't see him following through with his promise though.
It’s easy here… it has to be Labour.
My tongue is in my cheek.
I will be voting Labour. Bassetlaw as mentioned.
Just listened to BBC Food Program using the Tomato as an illustration of post Brexit food complexities. I was driving at the time so didn't need to devote time specifically for it.
It is well worth a listen as a couple of things I never new before came to light.
Apparently food standards are devolved to Scotland and Wales so if England wants to sign a trade deal with somewhere iffy then the devolved governments can/could in theory refuse to accept it.
There is also an interesting analysis of the geopolitical problems of ditching UK food production in order to buy cheap food from around the world.
Its worth a listen if you are driving or working on yer bike.
SNP seem to be demanding 16/17yo get the vote for this upcoming election.
I’m pretty sure despite being a Labour strong-hold (although close at the last election) the fact that Mann was a rabid leaver – Bassetlaw will go Tory or Brexit party, like neighboring Mansfield.
And no doubt the interpretation of this will be that labour should be more pro-remain.
And now the EU have said the WA won’t be renegociated
They said that before repeatedly. What did they do
They didn't really renegotiate. Boris came along and gave a load of stuff away, and they shrugged and said "well, if you're sure that's what you want". It must be the first time in history that someone has got their side to back something by offering them a substantially worse deal full of things they had all said they would never accept. Insane.
SNP seem to be demanding 16/17yo get the vote for this upcoming election.
They call for this for everything. And good on them for using every opportunity to press for it.
They didn’t really renegotiate. Boris came along and gave a load of stuff away, and they shrugged and said “well, if you’re sure that’s what you want”. It must be the first time in history that someone has got their side to back something by offering them a substantially worse deal full of things they had all said they would never accept. Insane.
To be fair on Johnson the EU did kick the can on the level playing field down the road, but the big change was to replace the backstop with a frontstop, this was hailed as a victory 🙄🙄
And no doubt the interpretation of this will be that labour should be more pro-remain.
Yep. But it would be wrong in this instance.
Well, I would like to vote for the biggest party that is ‘remain’, so it has to be the LibDems for me. It would and should be Labour, but.....
I certainly don’t want to contribute to the ‘80% of people voted for a party that wants to Brexit’ narrative, and Magic Grandpa has done bugger all to dispel that.
I think there will be plenty of tactical voting. In my constituency I'm already hearing about a serious campaign to get ride of Rees Mogg. He's so massively disliked by most sensible people in the constituency that they'd be prepared to forego their usual voting intentions just to get rid of him.
JP
I think there will be plenty of tactical voting.
With luck, I think it's going to be needed.
In my constituency Failing Grayling got more than everyone else put together.
No point voting tactically.
and Magic Grandpa has done bugger all to dispel that.
Well apart from the guaranteed referendum including a remain vote. Aside from that.
Good to see the hard right memes working.
Problem is that with twenty-one tory seats being vacated by mps losing the whip those that are safe seats are being targeted by tories who might be in danger of being voted out of the current meal ticket.
I heard Johnson was looking at moving from his current dungheap to another.
Yep Johnson wants to exit Uxbridge , he did promise to stop Heathrow expansion , bulldozers etc
Then flew off on day of vote
How he gets away with it all is amazing!
Good to see the hard right memes working.
Troll-a-lol.
The Labour Party is, well Corbyn is, we must assume deliberately, selling Brexit as a positive for the UK… just not if delivered by someone else. The whole selling of the 2017 Labour vote as being support for Brexit comes from Labour front benchers… Many of us voted Labour (in my case for the first time) back in 2017 partly to ‘stop May’ with her redlines… only to get our vote used by Labour to support her redlines… most notably as regards stopping freedom of movement. Many are now very reluctant to vote Labour again because of how their vote was used for two years, to not only enable Brexit, but also to destroy any route to a softer Brexit.
I think I'd have to vote Labour in a GE purely on the remain vs deal 1.3
In calderdale it was really close between a diabolical tory and Labour. the lib dems barely registered in the 2017 GE.
I'd rather the lib dems got a revoke mandate, but I'm prepared to hold my nose and vote labour given my local demographic, and get a legally binding deal vs revoke ref2.
As Kelvin said, I'm deeply suspicious of Labour for the reasons outlined.. A vote for Labour was endorsing brexit. Worst most damaging spin ever..
I still to this day don't know what corbyns Labour wants, but a straight up revocation of a50 seems off the table for the moment, so a solid (legal this time) referendum seems best.
In short, my local area is 40/40 tory /Labour 10/10 lib dem or 'other' so it will be a purely tactical vote.
I'd rather vote lib dem.
Gina Miller is preparing a website to help with tactical voting.
She seems pretty good at what she does.
Ooooh look, post Brexit Britain!
Mind boggling more devils in the WA Bill
UK gives up £7bn windfall from European Investment Bank ...
Wow. Page 3.
How to hammer home the effect of the Hard Brexit before us… use measurements people instinctively understand… “the size of Wales”…
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-punches-20755183
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research decided to assess the impact after the government refused to do so - claiming it wasn't needed.
Experts said that even if a free trade agreement is agreed with the EU by January 2021, which critics claim is impossible, the UK GDP will be 3.5% smaller each year "in perpetuity" than if we'd stayed in the EU.
"This is roughly equivalent to losing the annual output of Wales," the think tank concluded.
NIESR economist Arno Hantzsche added: "We don't expect there to be a 'deal dividend' at all.
Experts said that even if a free trade agreement is agreed with the EU by January 2021, which critics claim is impossible, the UK GDP will be 3.5% smaller each year
Unfortunately it didn't, it said 3.5% in the long run, by which I think they mean 10 years, not per annum. Link
Oh, well that's alright then.
Here's us thinking we'll be completely *ed when the reality is that we'll only be moderately *ed for the next decade.
From mefty's link,
The economy is estimated to be 2½ per cent smaller now than it would otherwise have been as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote.
Our economy is 2% smaller than it should be simply because we're talking about leaving the EU. We've not left yet.
Project fear, anyone?
Business wants certainty. God knows when they'll get it.
It actually says:
GDP will be 3% per cent smaller each year in perpetuity than it would have been had the UK stayed an EU member.
STW posters in selective quoting (lying and making stuff up) none shocker.
Project fear, anyone?
Fortunately there is some commentary on that in the report I linked - SPOILER ALERT - it massively overestimated the consequences.
STW posters in selective quoting (lying and making stuff up) none shocker.
Completely mystified by this, I was making the point that it was over a ten year period than than per annum.
