[s]The EU[/s] Brexit is a corrupt and failed political and economic project.

Fixed that for you.

TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in.

How can it be - we dont know the terms yet?

The process is just that, nothing is going to be worse in April 2017 than it is today in terms of our relationship with the EU.

On the contrary, we will have just triggered A50 and started the hard/real part of a process of mutual harm. Relationships will get a lot worse. That is a given.

Jamba - you so hate the EU that you cannot see the catastrophe coming. Yes its going to get a lot worse when the banks have to leave to do business in the EU. When Nissan realises May cannot possibly keep tarif free trade in cars, when the pound continues to tank, as the balance of payments gets worse.

Its an utter economic disaster on the way but your irrational hatred of the EU makes you blind to this

Best predicted growth of the G7? - Our governments own figures show a 4.5 contraction coming - thats a huge recession

The doom and gloomers here want to see bad news everywhere. However reality is simply not willing to play ball.

You're doing exactly the same thing, just from the other side of the argument.

The actual reality is that we just don't know what is going to happen, so by all means debate what might or might not happen, but this entrenchment achieves nothing and smacks of a lack of confidence in one's argument.
Also, that comment's a bit rich coming from someone who managed to convince themselves that Arlene Foster campaigned to remain just to fit their own entrenched point of view.
I'll say it again...
Say it with me if you like.

She did not.

Our governments own figures show a 4.5 contraction coming - thats a huge recession

Please stop posting false statements - they do not become true through repetition. You have already been corrected on this one.

Prices are going up, foreigners are still here and I'm not free.
Who do I complain to?

Bit of an aside, but you didn't sit through Trolls this afternoon. Or if you did you'll know what I mean.

The evil character 'Chef' is clearly modelled on Theresa May.

The doom and gloomers here want to see bad news everywhere. However reality is simply not willing to play ball.

bought any marmite lately?

Lord Farage! Best get the favourite suit pressed Jamby, you must be very proud.

The Times has an article advising you to buy stuff before "The brexit chill" kicks in. They are hardly remoaners. A shit storm is coming.
I'm so glad that bigotry and hatred now has an actual price we can see in good old pounds and pence.
Well ****ing done you stupid ****s.

You are pathologically determined to see bad news so you can say "told you so"

I dunno if that's aimed at the rest of us but Jam - I really really desperately want you to be right and me to be wrong. I want to live in a tolerant open prosperous country, as do most of the remainers on here.

I'll get absolutely no satisfaction from being right, believe me, and I doubt they will either. I'm negative because to me, it just doesn't look good.

duckman - Member
Lord Farage! Best get the favourite suit pressed Jamby, you must be very proud.

mirror, mirror on the wall.....

Molgrips +1

Hoping for the best, mentally preparing for the worse.

As a decidedly misanthropic anarchist, I'm really looking forward to brexit.
Unlike Jamba and his mates, I don't think it will be a particularly wise move regarding the advancement of a prosperous capitalist society.
In fact, if Trump gets in as well, I might just be lucky enough to bear witness to the final crisis of capitalism and the great revolution which will inevitably follow.
So keep it up boys, you keep shitting in your own soup and calling it caviar.

Eat up.

Hoping for the best, mentally preparing for the worse.

exactly I really dont want my kids to grow up in a country where ignorance and xenophobia dictate policy and end up damaging the economy

I don't think it will be a particularly wise move regarding the advancement of a prosperous capitalist society.

I'm all for moving away from capitalism. But I want a conscious managed transition driven by enlightenment, not a collapse. Because if society collapses backwards then yes, consumption will fall, but people won't learn anything and simply rebuild to do it all over again. And the vulnerable will suffer greatly - like the US great depression but worldwide.

exactly I really dont want my kids to grow up in a country where ignorance and xenophobia dictate

Good plan Mike, but we'll also need a time machine and the address of Guy Justus Oscar Farage.

Even though Epsom voted to remain ,chris grayling wants out and won't reflect the needs of his constituents.
My poll tax is due tomorrow so I've sent him this.Lets see what he says.

Every month I give Epsom and Ewell council £167 in taxes. I’d really rather give it to Epsom hospital.
They could certainly do with the money.
Do you mind if I opt out of paying council tax? I’ve asked all my neighbours and they 100% are with me.
Surely we can’t ignore those kind of results.
Thanks in advance ,.

TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in. The process is just that, nothing is going to be worse in April 2017 than it is today in terms of our relationship with the EU.

Please don't rely on this for any financial or business planning.

TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in. The process is just that, nothing is going to be worse in April 2017 than it is today in terms of our relationship with the EU.

[img] [/img]

How come no one in the government has a clue what's going on but 2 people on a cycling forum have been given full disclosure of the plans of Enola May?

I see GM have followed Nissans lead and let it be known they will be expecting [s]their publicly undisclosed, taxpayer funded bribe to be paid in full[/s], concerns to be considered, or they're off

Who could possibly have seen that one coming eh?

[i]TJ the fact we are leaving is all priced in. [/I]

Jamba

It may be priced 'in' globally and the world you live in but no one has the inflation that's going to hit us priced in nor has anyone really understood the basic impact on average folk by the 5-10 years worth of disruption (a time period that you agreed in a earlier post that was likely) that'll we'll likely face.

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1882/economics/winners-and-losers-from-weak-pound/

As a rough rule of thumb, a 10% devaluation may increase prices by 2-3%.

Yes and no br

Inflation expectations have reacted to events and are now at a level above the BoE target. People are already concerned/factoring in higher prices.

Brexshiteers have a habit of ignoring the fact that after the vote we have had a very significant injection into the economy/easing of policy as a result of the sharp devaluation of the pound. This has plusses and minusses.

Enola May

😀

I'm just glad I'm not the only one with OMD going round and round in my head.

[i]Theresa May, you should have stayed at home yesterday...[/i]

[url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/potential-farage-replacements-included-something-that-has-never-been-out-of-its-cellar-2015051298222 ]New UKIP leaders?[/url]

"Enola May" I think the cargo might explode before we get off the runway

New UKIP leaders?

that's nothing - you should see the UKIP group in the Welsh Assembly:

[img] [/img]

Answering on my phone I saw thms nonsense
4.5% comtractio is a statement from May
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-britain-lose-45-gdp-eu-customs-union-a7369181.html

TJ - feel free to demonstrate your lack of understanding of what the 4.5% figure represents or means. You may well be playing the "lets post nonsense" game with Jambas still.

But, we are only trying to prevent your from looking, what's your word, "ignorant" on this issue. Your choice.....

Our governments own figures show a 4.5 contraction coming - thats a huge recession

No they dont, no its not.

And the BOE Governor.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/bank-of-england-governor-to-be-replaced-with-bucket-full-of-stupid-suggestions-20161031116236

The remarkable thing is that the brexiteers need economic stability to prevent the public realising b4 A50 is triggered that Brexit is going to leave us all poorer

But ...
Hannan
Gove
Hague
Davies
Fox
and even May in her conference speech have attacked Carney(tho today we saw her endorse him desperately!)
Added to the Brexiters attacks on Hammond all theyve done is scare the markets & hurt the £ further - its october's worst performing currency in the world!

even assumiong Carney stays on through 2018 theyve already spooked foreign investors and traders

I just cant get my head round their childishness/stupidity

I just cant get my head round their childishness/stupidity

the trouble is they can't handle/spin the reality so the next best option is to blame the messenger.

Klunk - Member
the [s]next best[/s] only option is to blame the [s]messenger[/s] foreigner

it's the brexit way.

Of your list, only Hague and May are of importance and relevance. The views of the others can be parked and ignored.

Hague was more balanced than the headlines would suggest and made some fair points

May is more confusing on the face of it but is playing different audiences. I think that she has realised that her comments at the conference were ill-advised and has come out today in support Carney. She should do so. She also needs to remember that the BoE only has two priorities (inflation, financial stability) and one bag of tricks (monetary policy). The latter works best in conjunction with fiscal (and supply-side) policies which are her responsibility. It is also largely impotent in the face on deleveraging by households and corporates. To mis-quote Keynes, Carney is currently pushing on a piece of string.

Where she is correct is to question the over-relaince on QE. This is a blunt instrument, with limited success that, as she has pointed out, has created unequal rewards. It needs to be ended asap. But Central Banks now have their cocks in the custard as exiting QE is going to be extremely difficult.

I just cant get my head round their childishness/stupidity

I can. Its hardly like we're talking about intellectual heavyweights here. They're a bunch of bloody clowns. Be honest...... who (except Jammers) didn't think, when those 3 names were announced ... "are you having a ****ing laugh?"

Nothing that has followed has surprised me. I expect it to get a lot worse, as the self-serving morons dig deeper and deeper into the great big pool of shit they've created

Thm
You can keep on saying nonsense but we know its nonsense

The government own briefing paper states this 4.5% contraction is coming but of course you know better

Funny how you keep answering me
Do you realise how silly you look? Fortunately I don't have to read your drivel normally

Im not the one who is looking silly - I understand what was said - I have read the papers behind the briefing and have access to the assumptions in their models and what they mean

You clearly don't. But feel free to wallow in - what's your expression and sneery comment for others? - ignorance here. Everyone can see how silly that looks - we were just trying to help you out.

The government own briefing paper states this 4.5% contraction is coming

No it doesnt. That comment is ignorant of the facts.

You really need to widen you info source (WoS is a v poor choice) and stop blocking links that would help you to understand. Otherwise it becomes a little embarrassing. You have now made the same mistake 4 or 5 times. Do YOU realise how silly you look?

I just cant get my head round their childishness/stupidity

The report TJ talks about refers to a drop in GDP [i]per capita[/i] of 4.5% by 2030, based on a hypothetical, post brexit scenario. That does not mean that growth will shrink to -4.5% in a recession, it simply means that our GDP [i]per capita[/i] will be lower in 14 years.
I'm not suggesting this is a good thing, and i don't think thm is either, it's just that this is only one report of many and is not suggesting a contraction of our economy of 4.5%, just that one measure of growth/productivity might be down by around this amount at some point in the future.
I certainly don't see this report as a reason to panic, though it does warn of potential issues that must be addressed, especially regarding productivity, which has been a problem for our economy long before brexit popped up.

Hmm.

Without immigration, our population would shrink, wouldn't it? As immigrants are keeping the birth rate up as I have read.

Whilst probably being good for the environment doesn't this present a serious problem for current economic practises?

Whilst probably being good for the environment doesn't this present a serious problem for current economic practises?

It would mean that our island would gradually become lighter.

Eventually we could run the risk that one strong storm could blow us either crashing into Denmark and Sweden, or worse, out into the Atlantic Ocean. Even if Scotland became independent, it would still suffer the same fate.

If we were blown far enough out across the Atlantic, Donald Trump would be able to claim the UK as a territory of the US, and forcibly convert the entire country into a new luxury golf course.

The government has planned for this already by siting huge numbers of propellers all around the country (disguised as wind turbines obviously). These will be connected via the national grid to Sizewell B.

So I don't think you need to worry - everything is in hand.

Well this is where the fun will start, molgrips. When the section of the UK who voted for Brexit on an anti-immigration basis find out that, post-brexit, we will still have pretty sizeable amounts of immigrants coming in, we will see the full consequences of the forces unleashed over the past 12 months.

Long term, the only people who will be happy with brexit will be the ones who make the most money from it.

All 3 of them...

And Jamba.

The report TJ talks about refers to a drop in GDP per capita of 4.5% by 2030, based on a hypothetical, post brexit scenario.

Better but still not 100% correct

That does not mean that growth will shrink to -4.5% in a recession

100% correct

it simply means that our GDP per capita will be lower in 14 years.

Better but still not 100% correct

The briefing paper summarises a series of papers that were prepared pre-Brexshit vote to identify the various factors that would be affected by it and to consider what impact this may have on the level of economic activity. These were not government figures.

All the papers were based on the same framework (NiGEM) but they used different assumptions

The numbers - although the 4.5% was an average not an actual I believe - indicate the difference between the level of GDP per capita based on their base case scenarios of the UK without Brexshit and the results of the modelling post Brexshit. GDP per capita was not lower in absolute terms, it was less than their base cases over the period to 2030. Different things.

I'm not suggesting this is a good thing, and i don't think thm is either, it's just that this is only one report of many and is not suggesting a contraction of our economy of 4.5%,

So in conclusion

Our governments own figures show a 4.5 contraction coming - thats a huge recession

No they dont. No its not

The government own briefing paper states this 4.5% contraction is coming

No it doesnt.

Some things never change do they 😉

What thm said.

Eloquent bastard. 8)

[i]GDP per capita was not lower in absolute terms, it was less than their base cases over the period to 2030. Different things.[/I]

If our GDP was 4.5% lower in absolute terms by 2030 even David Davies (aka Jamba) would realise that Brexit is a planned train crash, into a loaded A380 in Times Square while the Queen opened a joint UN and G7 meeting 🙂

So if it's [b]only[/b] 4.5% lower than what it could've been, that's still almost a 1/20th lower - or Wales, to put it into perspective...

Or have I read what THM wrote wrongly?

So some people did some sums and said that, without brexit, there will be 20 extra cows in the field by 2030. They then did sums and said that with brexit, there might only be 19 more cows in the field.

Sorry THM, we're really ****ing this up.

Fin - I'm sure to be corrected but as I recall its more like - we currently have 100 cows in a field, the projection without Brexit is that we'll have 130 cows in the field by 2030 but with Brexit we'll only have 125 cows and a calf.
E&OE

Will these cows be able to travel freely around Europe and then retire to Majorca?

good job i'm vegan, don't need no cows...

Guys, its not that hard. Pre-Brexit we had 10 cows in a fields. The Brexhsiteers promised us another 15 cows if we voted LEAVE.

We voted....

....we now have three donkeys and a camel.

The outstanding question....Who has the hump?

(br IMO forget the figures - I am amazed that they were included in a briefing pack at all. As some of the authors pointed out themselves, the numbers are not what is important. It is the understanding of the value drivers and sensitivity of the outputs to relatively small changes in the output that is of interest and then only to those who have responsibility for managing them. Interestingly, in the three papers I have access to, none of them included a fall in £ as great as we have seen to date)

Enough serious stuff - back to the camel

No camels.
Bit too Arabic for the brexit crowd.

As TMH says the report TJ quoted suggested (under it's very pessimistic Brexit scenarios) that GDP would grow but grow by 4.5% less than it would if we Remain. The report is one of the reasons Osbourne is now a back bencher

Be honest...... who (except Jammers) didn't think, when those 3 names were announced ... "are you having a ****ing laugh?

I get that a Labour Party member supporting Remain might say that. As we know from STW political threads you don't have a representative cross section of the UK population. Key Brexiteers in the Brexit posts makes perfect sense. Obviously RemIners hoped to see appointees willing to hijack the process and keep us in the EU

INteresting article today:

[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/31/why-all-conservatives-should-want-parliament-to-have-the-final-s/ ]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/31/why-all-conservatives-should-want-parliament-to-have-the-final-s/[/url]

If Leave had been allowed access to the civil service and Treasury maybe we could have come up with our own scenarios and then we could have a more sensible debate. As we have noted before Economists struggle to predict what will happen 1 or 2 years forward never mind 15

Live Parliament statement on Nissan

As we have noted before Economists struggle to predict what will happen 1 or 2 years forward never mind 15

Knowing one of the cretins in charge personally, I can honestly say that I wouldn't put him in charge of a chicken coop at sundown. He even takes his aide (Adam?) on holiday to help sort out thing like "where did I put my ski boots" and "which table are we on tonight?" (the same table they always sit you at and have done for the past decade).

under it's very pessimistic Brexit scenarios

Not true - the £ drop is already greater than that used in the different models

(Adam?)

Adam Werritty ?

If Leave had been allowed access to the civil service and Treasury maybe we could have come up with our own scenarios and then we could have a more sensible debate

Nah they'd still have written a load of lies on a bus or used pictures of refugees to stir up fear and hate

They were called up numerous times on using the 350mil figure and still chose to keep pushing the lie. (As did our own resident VL campaigner)

If Leave had been allowed access to the civil service and Treasury maybe we could have come up with our own scenarios and then we could have a more sensible debate.

The Treasury was only one of the models used. Leave had access to the base models as any of us do (well the results anyway).

Of course, we know what Leave did when presented with real evidence - dismiss the role of experts. And they are doing the same now with Carney.

Actually can't believe Carney hasn't quit today, seeing it through til the end of brexit just seems masochistic, given the stick he's been getting off the brexit boys.

Presumably it'd be easy to update the nos including the pound at the level it is, and presumably it'd be better nos - well, according to the Brexiters they do say it's better that the pound is worth less?

@kimbers £10bn & £190m are the figures I used, just saying. Budget contributions are forecast to rise of course.

TMH is lower £ a negative for their model, input or output ? I was referring to things like assuming there was not a single trade deal signed in 15 years. Any 90 page economic report full of formulas you know it's bollix never mind one presented as part of an Election / Referendum

Any 90 page economic report full of formulas you know it's bollix

Wow.

Genuinely.

Wow.

You're not even being ironic, are you?

jambalaya - Member
@kimbers £10bn & £190m are the figures I used, just saying. Budget contributions are forecast to rise of course.

Jambs, do I have cut and paste the bit where you said £350m [b]again[/b]! ? You are the perfect example of vote leave and Brexiters, still unable to accept that you lied

The £ affects different variables in different ways at different times - we have discussed this before. It not a simple good v bad relationship. The important thing is to understand how this works!!

Actually can't believe Carney hasn't quit today, seeing it through til the end of brexit just seems masochistic, given the stick he's been getting off the brexit boys.

No point moving back to Canada at the current exchange rates.

[i]The £ affects different variables in different ways at different times - we have discussed this before. It not a simple good v bad relationship. The important thing is to understand how this works!! [/I]

and?

Go ahead Kimbers - just post the link to the post

The Brexiters are still at it, they really are an amazingly dim lot

Rees- Mogg

“I think the uncertainty was bad, but I still think he ought to have gone because of his bias over Brexit.”

Some pro-Brexit Conservative MPs aren’t best pleased that Mark Carney will remain at the Bank of England until 2019, says the City AM newspaper.

One leading Tory brexiteer told them that:

My sense is that if [Carney] is going to stay to 2019 he needs to find a way to row in behind the Prime Minister and start to find a way to be a bit more positive.

I would like him to stay and do a good job, and demonstrate some enthusiasm for leaving the EU, seeing as we are going to.

I've said it before Jamba, and I'll say it again...

No

She

Didn't

and what BR?

there isnt space here to go through all the variables and the different weightings. Each model varies.

I did make an error earlier, several included an immediate 20% devaluation in the ST, greater than I first said/implied and pretty good for people of zero value!!

jambalaya - Member
Go ahead Kimbers - just post the link to the post

Jambas - kimbers is correct, you did state this. But don't worry so did Give and he lied live on tv on pretty much every detail about the £350m

Less than zero value.

And, how about telling us how it works then?

Please don't say it's too complicated 🙂