[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Anyone vote for all that?

A tiny few probably did and don't GAS about the consequences. The majority didn't though and this is the main justification behind a new referendum and the efforts to prevent no deal. As I said above though, it's a shame the lib dems and tory rebels have other priorities.

Latest opinion polls are showing that the vast majority ~70% are totally against leaving with no deal.
Plus remain is getting further ahead now.
if Boris crashes out with no deal I reckon he is screwed politically (obvs financially he will make a mint from his mates)

I think Johnson's done for no matter what happens, it's just (from my remainy POV) a matter of how much damage he's able to do before he gets the heave-ho.

a shame the lib dems and tory rebels have other priorities

Yes, they do, so… Labour can sit back and let Johnson have his way, hoping it pick up some votes in 5 years time if the electorate haven’t accepted his papering over of the cracks as “beneficial” to their lives… or they can find consensus with those other parties and MPs… for just long enough to lead the way through to an extension and then some democratic events (elections, a referendum, maybe both) and try and get into power ASAP. Or they can keep saying “accept Corbyn as PM, or keep Johnson as PM and let him do what he wants” as if those are the only options available.

[To be fair, I think Labour did exactly this kind of consensus building and practical planning back in September, before Parliament was prorogued, and I fully expect them to do so again in the second half of this month. Everyone is currently just setting themselves apart from each other, as nothing much can happen ‘till Johnson has run down the clock and makes government policy officially No Deal later this month. When all the parties and concerned MPs can, and have to, work together again to stop No Deal, I honestly think they will, and fully expect that Labour will lead this.]

I honestly think they will, and fully expect that Labour will lead this.

I do too, but it'll be in the form of the lib dems climbing down off their high horse and the tory wets swallowing their pride and falling in behind the other opposition parties. None of them are going to want to be labelled as the MPs who enabled Johnson's no deal. Corbyn will (probably) be PM before the end of this month.

but it’ll be in the form of the lib dems climbing down off their high horse and the tory wets swallowing their pride and falling in behind the other opposition parties.

Errrm...

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesrobking/status/1181232155680296961

None of them are going to want to be labelled as the MPs who enabled Johnson’s no deal.

There are Tory rebels who absolutely would rather be labelled as allowing Johnson’s no deal rather than make Corbyn PM. They hate him enough to let the country be damaged by Brexit rather than put him in power, for any amount of time. Some will do what’s right for the country if it comes down to that choice, but not enough of them, I fear.

Well, I have just returned from a townhall meeting in Stockholm organised by the new British Ambassador for UK nationals in Sweden. She’d organised a bunch of people from the Swedish government, quite senior ones as well, to help explain things as they are now. For light relief, she stated that the firm government policy was to leave with a deal, something that caused laughter given Johnson’s statements recently. I think we were supposed to believe her and just accept that he was spouting weapons grade bullshit.

Anyway, the focus was on rights of UK nationals immediately after brexit, specifically a hard brexit. What struck me more than anything was just how organised and prepared the Swedes were and how generous they are being with their plans. Despite hoping for reciprocity in some things, they have offered unilateral protections for us that go way further than anything I would have expected.

My notes are below for howsyourdad1 and the other Swedish residents here:

Ambassador town hall
Mostly Swedish gov people, only ambassador from uk

UK plan is to leave with a deal, but prepare for leaving without one. Proposal is with EU for them to approve. Advice as it is formed will be on British embassy FB page and on the living in Sweden gov page

Sweden is basically prepared for a hard Brexit. Will try to help as best they can, but will not be as easy as with a withdrawal agreement.

Situation now: A hard Brexit would require uk nationals to obtain a residence permit after a grace period of at least 1 year. You would need to apply for a residence stamp to facilitate travel across borders. After the grace period, a special permit has been proposed for UK nationals. Permit is based under the same rules as current EU rules.

Short term residents would be given a temporary residency permit with a validity of five years. Plan is to come into force jan 1st 2020, with the last day of application being the last day of October 2020.

Can apply for passport stamp on Migration website after a hard Brexit, look for Brexit page. Read web pages for what should be done, but stamp is easy and is valid throughout Europe. If travelling or planning travel, get the stamp as quickly as possible. Plan is to have visa free travel from day one, but based on reciprocity. Process should be easy/quick and can be issued at any Migrationsverket reception. Advice is to carry proof of residency. For permit, plan is to have process in place by Jan 1st. Monitor website for details. More on EU nationals page. If no residence permit by the end of the grace period, you can stay, but with some restrictions. Negative decisions can be appealed. Apply as soon as possible to avoid short time in case of backlog. Make applications as complete as possible to speed things up.

Healthcare - require folkbokford(?)/residency, then you have the right to healthcare in Sweden. But, British EHIC cards will not be valid in wider Europe. Swedish EHIC will be valid in Europe. Apply for a Swedish EHIC before travelling.

Applying for new jobs in grace period should be no different than current regime. May depend on the employer though.

Citizenship time counts at the time of granting, but screening takes place at the time of application. If you apply for citizenship and it is in progress, will need to apply again for the residency permit as a separate thing. Citizenship can take up to 18 months and may require you to apply from your home country. Generally, if you have a tax number, it is proof of residency. Start doing stuff now! Time counts from when you can prove you started living in the country. Get proof from work - contract? Pay slip? Check website for rules on that. Avoid long periods of unemployment as this might go against you.

Tax - Brexit will have no bearing on where tax is paid on pensions, etc. UK gov may be able help with working out how to get the UK pension.

Reciprocity clause will not exist, it is a unilateral decision by Sweden. Will only apply to travel.

UK driving licenses get a grace period of a year, but after Oct 31, will not be able to swap out for a Swedish one. Do it now if you have not done it already, but if the process is ongoing when Brexit happens, the license swap will stop and swapping will not be possible.

If you have a UK and a third country citizenship, you can apply for Swedish, but it is dependent on the third country being fine with having three citizenships. UK is fine with that.

Feed questions back on Facebook or via the locations on the card they gave out. Worst case, embassy for contact.

The biggest democratic vote in British history has already decided leave/remain, now we need to break the deadlock and move on. Fair and square…

For pity's sake, not this one again. It simple enough to fact check and find out this is a lie, but Leavers "don't do facts".

I don't know who is more idiotic, Dazh, or those trying to reason with his ilk.

The time for reasonable debate is over.

The time for reasonable debate is over.

More patience required. Despite the polls currently suggesting that a referendum would result in us remaining, that absolutely can be turned around during a campaign, and the experience of 2016 suggests it would be. A lot of reasoned debate will have to happen if this is to be averted. And I’m talking about debate with voters more generally (your friends, family and workmates) not the likes of @exsee & @dazh with their ‘fun games’ on the forum.

Please don't lump dazh in with excee...

I was replying to @el-bent… I’m not suggesting that they are coming from the some set of values, or even playing the same games. But frustration with the approach of either shouldn’t be used as a reason to give up on reasoned debate with people… we will need to do that much more, not less, in the near future.

Trouble is, in the opinion of many remainers, all the stupid moronic leavers don’t understand how democracy works.

It is very easy to fall into that trap, given the support by many leavers for a course of action by the government which sought to sideline parliament (the sovereign body of our democracy) and to call those who overturned that action "enemies of the people".

Interesting post by willard. I'm not all surprised our neighbours are better prepared than we are for whatever may happen. They appear to have more grown ups in government than we do.

@ELBENT. Fact check once again don't forget to pop an apology up mate

You keep saying this. Adding the word “democratic” into a sentence doesn’t automatically make it so. Mob rule is not a democracy.

The uncomfortable truth is that what you – or I – want doesn’t matter. Leave won an opinion poll by a statistically insignificant margin over three years ago, big whoop

Cougar, you don't like people shouting nonsense about 'we won you lost get over it' but you post that above, you sound like the people you have begun to loathe. Rational people have completely lost any sense of reason. I didn't say or imply adding the word democratic in to any sentence automatically made it so? It is the largest democratic vote in British history. it's not irrelevant no matter what you might try and convince yourself of.

Molgrips, I'm not really sure what I think will happen if people think they've been stitched up, it feels like a really volatile time, if we leave with no deal I expect carnage, if we remain I expect carnage, if we can get a compromise of a leave deal across the line I expect slightly less carnage with the option to rejoin always on the table.

I agree it is not irrelevant. It is also no good reason to leave the EU.

If we remain I don't think much bad will happen, (any more than it already is) as it's the status quo.
If we remain we can actually start using our laws and EU laws to stiffen immigration procedures, as that's always been the case but not used as it was cheaper for the UK treasury/foreign office to ignore concerns rather than deal with the concerns.

The referendum result was essentially a stalemate, and an advisory one based on lies, propaganda and dubious funding at that.

Exsee you seem to be basing your position around a wobbly fantasy built on sand.

I don't think there will be any carnage if we remain and reform (starting with our own government).

There might be some minor disruption from small brexit protesters, as we've seen, remain protests and climate change protests gather far more people, and there will be even more once the food and medicine supply is disrupted if a no deal brexit happens and people start losing thier jobs in greater numbers and become homeless as housing benefit won't cover the artificially high rents.

Throw in a bit of terrorism from the Irish situation and we'll see some real chaos.

I have to question why you think;

get a compromise of a leave deal across the line I expect slightly less carnage w

Is a viable option..?
Whether it's May's deal or jonsons may 1.1 version, it's a vassal state for the UK.. That's clear, and that's not acceptable to any UK political faction.

Pray tell.. What super secret solution are you thinking of that no one else can come up with?

@ELBENT. Fact check once again don’t forget to pop an apology up mate

He has nothing for which to apologise. Your link goes on to discuss that how you describe the vote is very much down to interpretation. But you don’t seem like the kind of person that reads beyond the headline of the article. If you delve further (takes real effort this...) into it, you’ll see that the phrase and variations of it have only really taken off in usage since late last year, once it became one of the buzz phrases of the various pro-Brexit/no deal/Lexit groups. And here you are shilling it. How many times have you written it now? A dozen or so? Even twice in one post up there somewhere. Seems the only person you’re really trying to convince is yourself. And I don’t blame you.

So, government has revised upwards (again) the estimate of the cost of No Deal Brexit. The figures are so big now that it’ll just be ignored. All while no10 sources are briefing that No Deal is on… with penalties for countries that support an extension when it comes to dealing with their citizens and future trade and security. They are also saying that they will force through a no deal and ignore any extension if it is granted, by fully removing all EU related law from statute and unilaterally taking the UK out and ignoring/breaking any existing treaties and agreements.

nothing much can happen ‘till Johnson has run down the clock and makes government policy officially No Deal later this month. When all the parties and concerned MPs can, and have to, work together again to stop No Deal, I honestly think they will, and fully expect that Labour will lead this.

Presumably this is why the EU have brought forward their date for a plan so they can get things moving before 31st.

Newsnight just reporting that #10 is briefing that EU27 countries who vote against our request for delay will be prioritised for collaborations in the future; those that vote for delays will go to the end of the queue.

WTF is our politics coming to?

In just a couple of paragraphs, there are a few different types of Brexit here, just talking about the NI/RoI border. (Oh and a bit about the farmers who I believe made a bit of a statement today...that’d be the Burn-Healthy-Dairy-Cows-Brexit.)

https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1180171745271123969?s=21

But yeah, we voted for them all.

Newsnight just reporting that #10 is briefing that EU27 countries who vote against our request for delay will be prioritised for security collaborations in the future; those that vote for delays will go to the end of the queue.

That really smells of total desperation to be honest.

Sounds like typical boris /Cummings

I really hope they both get nailed to the wall when this is over.

The border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland has nothing to do with the EU

That is an outright lie surely?

Well yes, yes it is an outright lie.

Both countries are in the EU.

There's also the Belfast agreement which is an international peace treaty, which supercedes any local agreements.

“no prospect of custom duties”

If all their lies weren’t lies, then we’d probably all have voted for Leave.

That is an outright lie surely?

Well...the CTA existed since, I can’t remember now, 40s or 50s which pre-dates the EEC/EC/EU but what they didn’t say was that it would very much become an EU concern once we voted for whatever version of Brexit we want delivered. Essentially, it was a lie. But y’know, nobody believed that kind of thing. They knew what they were voting for.

Another good one...takes a bit of reading

https://twitter.com/sicarswell/status/1180860725755043843?s=21

He has nothing for which to apologise. Your link goes on to discuss that how you describe the vote is very much down to interpretation. But you don’t seem like the kind of person that reads beyond the headline of the article.

Which I had already explained in one of my previous posts to another shouty type which becomes kind of ironic doesn't it? it's a hugely significant part of the puzzle hence me reminding people of that point. Cougar still thinks it was an advisory irrelevance after 3 years of political mayhem. :o)
I'll decide if he is being offensive to me, not you, thanks.
Will you be apologizing for being offensive matey?

When we get to vote in your ‘deal vs no deal, no you can’t remain’ referendum, what’s the deal look like for Ireland? And how will any accommodations for the people of NI be seen by people in Scotland? And what does the deal look like as regards transfer of data? When can we sign the promised new trade deals with non EU countries? When do we lose the ones we currently have? Will Freedom of Movement continue? Instead of pretending offence has been caused, and demanding an apology, how about you sketch out what the compromise is that you want forced on us (assume that not enough of us would dare to vote against it if the only alternative on the ballet was no deal).

Will you be apologizing for being offensive matey?

On what basis have you decided to take offence?

Kelvin when did I say that was my vote option? I won't be putting the deals together as you well know but the independent impartial body will look into the realities of any agreement so everything on the table will be ratified and ready to go, no more unicorns from anyone.
The compromise vote I would propose personally would be almost identical to what we have now just without the cherries, jobs a goodun.

Being offensive is being offensive Kelvin, just no need and completely against the Singletrack ethos. If we don't call it out it grows like Japanese Knotweed.

Who has been offensive?

Which elements of our current arrangements are the “cherries”?

• Freedom of Movement?
• Common VAT area?
• EHIC?
• ERASMUS?
• Common external tariffs?
• Air quality?
• Food standards?
• Financial passporting?
• CAP?

You need to specify what it is we should be forced into, if we’re not allowed to say, “no thanks, our current deal is better than that, over the last four years we’ve come to better appreciate our cherries, we’ll keep them, thanks”.

So you accept the compromise would be losing all the good stuff? Madness.

Cherries we lose would be rebate and seat at the round table in my preferred deadlock breaker. Both minor and have potential to be a net gain in the long run

So you want us to “Leave”, pay more, and lose our say? And we can’t turn that down without accepting No Deal? Right… I can see how this pleases… er… just you?

And what would we gain?

Yes it's a compromise that will appeal to everyone apart from die hard 'we must remain at all costs' and no dealers. the rebate is highly complex and contentious anyway, the EU will be better off financially and they will continue the good work without us at the table. We will still have considerable influence if we become a better European neighbour.
I'm happy to pay more and have less of a say while still trying to keep the lid on the chaos we have created, what would be your concerns with that?

The rebate is neither complex nor contentious - we pay X, we benefit to the tune of X times several hundred.

I’m happy to pay more and have less of a say

Well, that’s nice.

a compromise that will appeal to everyone apart from…

…just about every UK voter.

pondo, that doesn't look right at all. I've read it a couple of times and it looks like a guaranteed lottery win the way you've written it, am I missing something simple or have you made a mistake?
Rebate information on wiki

Jonshon: the EU didnt say why they rejected the offer

EU: here's an itemised list

he's a liar.

what bothers me more than anything now is the apparent instruction to tell his ambassadors that the plan is to leave with a deal (which I assume they will base their in-country dealings and relationships on) with the strategy of blatant no deal brinkmanship and underhand negotiations.

Is this deliberately isolating or cutting out his diplomat, or just a completely incoherent strategy?

Newsnight just reporting that #10 is briefing that EU27 countries who vote against our request for delay will be prioritised for collaborations in the future; those that vote for delays will go to the end of the queue

True, but security, science and tech.....etc.

Do the EU 27 vote in private? If someone was to reject an extension does everyone else know who it was?

Wot r we gonna do wiv all the trayters that moved to Spain but karnt afford to live there no more?

Reading about one couple who can’t sell their house in Italy as it was destroyed in an earthquake and she has got breast cancer. She will now have to pay for her care and can’t afford it. She has accepted that she will die out there.