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No it’s not. It’s the same people who are nasty on all threads. This thread doesn’t get diluted by as many normal people as other threads do.
Most on STW are rather nice people but just getting too caught with their own ideals that's all. 😀
As for Brexit it will be No Deal whether UK like it or not as the EU bloke (Guy Verhofstadt holding the letter from PM BoJO) has mentioned that they would not accept any reheated ex-PM May's deal.
The question now is to see if EU will bow to PM BoJo demands and tow the line accordingly to accept that PM BoJo has hammered them well.
At home (UK Parliament) PM BoJo knows he has the upper hand for now entering the GE so the scenario is like this:
1. No Deal - Tories win "landslide" (majority), oppositions will be in the wild for sometimes.
2. Reheated deal - Tories disintegrate But no majority in the government and UK in lingering decline.
It looks like PM BoJo is riding the wave well so far by keeping the people guessing.
It appears that Johnson has done a deal with the Hungarians to reject an extension. Which is why he's so confident about evading the Benn Act. We're so screwed.
https://twitter.com/ResistersLondon/status/1179715490748477440?s=19
It appears that Johnson has done a deal with the Hungarians to reject an extension. Which is why he’s so confident about evading the Benn Act. We’re so screwed.
Is there any evidence for this?
Why else would they be there, kiksy?
Of course Joris* will attempt to torpedo the extension law. Bribing one nation is a "perfectly legal" way to do so. Ethically and morally bankrupt, as expected.
I can't see any cast iron route to avoiding a no deal now unless The Fop Haired Fondle Denier * is stopped via VONC and the existing May deal is OK'd.
Nothing that requires an extension is guaranteed if Captain Feelythighs* can get one state to veto the request.
* Dominic
It's still "toe the line" chewkw.
So, let's say we leave on Oct 31st with no deal. What's the impact on the irish border on Nov 1st.
This?
Why else would they be there, kiksy?
Plenty of reasons, pre-emptive trade deals, Brexit related immigration talks , basically anything trying to get in early ,could even just be a scheduled thing from ages ago.
Not to discount it might be a veto thing, but without evidence seems a jump.
I am angry too but I am confident that my wife will be able to stay in France.
I have no intention to come back and live in the UK but it was nice to have that option.
I know I will have to queue more to get in the UK, might loose some equity if house prices crash.
I wish no harm to the UK, but I want the EU to protect my interests and if it means the UK is screwed then so be it.
Friends who visit us in France twice a year voted Leave, parent of my wife voted Leave, I mean WTF???
Why else would they be there, kiksy?
The Foreign and Foreign Minister, who talks with several senior members of the British cabinet, including Foreign Minister Dominic Raab and Steve Barclay's Brexit Minister, has stated to the Hungarian media that Hungary's aim is to uphold an earlier agreement that Regardless of the form of Brexit, citizens' rights must be mutually guaranteed, whether they live in the European Union or in the United Kingdom.
The article seems to claim it mainly about expats and Hungarians living in the UK.
Could all be a cover up (as anything the government do now sadly needs to be heavily scrutinized ), but hardly a stretch that the reasons given in the article are true.
Raab and Barclay there to talk about upholding immigrants rights, give over. Probably cheaper to buy a veto from Hungary than DUP votes.
Raab and Barclay there to talk about upholding immigrants rights, give over. Probably cheaper to buy a veto from Hungary than DUP votes.
Indeed. BloHard has already been found acting illegally in proroguing parliament, so committing borderline treason by bribing a far right thug into torpedoing this country shouldn’t be too troubling for him.
Makes you wonder, though. If this was all such a good idea, why do the powers that be have to break the law or engage fascist help to get it through?
Honestly, if Bojo gets a no deal by doing a deal with the Hungarians I am going to laugh....a lot.
The British won’t be able to blame anyone but themselves.
The EU isn't going to accept the deal anyway. If opposition MPs realise this then they'll vote it down, therefore forcing BJ to ask for an extension, destroying his electability (if polls are correct on that) and then clean up in the ensuing GA. Job done.
Is it too late for another referendum?
NOpe. I expect one given that all bar one party have it as policy despite Swinsons grandstanding
However, organising a referendum in the next 28 days seems unlikely even if possible. I reckon Johnson is now working on getting one or more vetos blocking an extension by the EU 27.
Its not needed to have it in the next 28 days nor is that desirable. Thats for the extension period.
That’s if we get an extension.
What happens to the Irish border mess if there is no deal? Is the game that the EU are then obliged to implement a border so the resulting mess is blamed on them rather than the government? Am I missing something because no deal seems to end up with the most horrible of messes and if that is the 'strategy' then that is incredible
If you think back to what EU leaders said about the current extension when it was granted then you should have real doubts about an extension. Macron said to use the time wisely, instead of which it has been squandered with no signing of May's deal, no realistic propostions for a deal that would satisfy the EU 27, no GE... non of the things the time was given for. In fact the British attitude has hardened and compromise is ever further away. The collaboration of just one of the 27 is all that's needed for Johnson to get the no deal Brexit he wants.
If BoJo is "forced" to ask for an extension by Parliament or a judicial review, then it won't be seen as his fault by the Brexit die hard crowd - he may not be as unelectable as we'd like to think
In the case of no deal I reckon the EU will simply apply tarrifs on purchases by EU companies initially and perhpas exempt Ireland for the time it takes to come to an arrangement with a back-to-the-wall Britain. It's not the small cross Irish border stuff that will be targeted it'll be stuff that really hurts. A minor leak through Ireland will be ignored rather than set up a hard border, the big stuff is on company balance sheets and really easy to apply tarifs to.
Leffeboy, on Johnson’s proposal....
Some are even seeing it as a declaration of war.
We will get an extension. It makes the EUs life easier to kick the can, and frankly at the moment we are paying in but our government is making no strategic decisions with the other 27 so the French are leading without counter argument.
The extension will be until mid 2020 as they will need it all sorted my the time they need to re-negotiate/ remove our rebate from their budget calculations.
Tldr: no to Alexander's deal, offer a long extension to parliament. They take it. Referendum mid january. video of Cummings using BJs head like a pig's leaked to the guardian.
An extension in exchange for another referendum and / or election is in the EUs interest. I agree one to just defer decsions is not what they want but they know another referendum is coming
I wouldn't be suprised to see a second ref bill go thru before the deadline
the French are leading without counter argument.
If only! That would be ace but it really isn't the case.
Edit: I'd be pleasantly surprised, TJ, but surprised all the same.
An extension in exchange for another referendum and / or election is in the EUs interest. I agree one to just defer decsions is not what they want but they know another referendum is coming
I wouldn’t be suprised to see a second ref bill go thru before the deadline
I wouldn't count on that after reading that politico article, it reads to me like they are ready for a showdown with Britain now.
Don’t we all want an extension to take us into next year when the Tax Avoidance Directive starts to kick in?
Isn’t that the panic behind the Oct 31st leave date?
Ahhhhh global Britain - ready to trade with the world.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49907056
Drug exports restricted 'to protect NHS patients'
^^^ Pretty much my reaction to reading this. Good thing we bought a nice stock of contraceptives, contact lenses and other basic medicines.
On the border in the event of "no deal"
the EU will have to erect a hard border immediately. They have to by law.
the UK will have to have a hard border because if they do not then every nation in the world will be entitled to have complete tariff free access to the UK because no border = no tariffs
Don’t we all want an extension to take us into next year when the Tax Avoidance Directive starts to kick in?
It is just another stupid conspiracy theory like the hedge fund one, spread by the ill informed.
RE the Hedge fund "one", I'm not sure that Hammond would have risked being sued into the ground if there was nothing to it - but I'm open to hearing more mefty.
I think we at the point, in fact well beyond it, where remainers and anti-populists have to start fighting a disinformation war anyway. If we can't win, we can at least sow doubt and discredit Johnsons "man of the people" narrative.
Mefty - actually both have good evidence for them. Your link actually shows that the EU anti tax avoidance stuff will come into force in 2020 aand will severly limit the UK and its dependencies tax avodence / evaision industry.
EU’s new “anti tax avoidance directive”, the last part of which has to be applied in member states by 1 January 2020 (although it’s unclear if they will still take effect if we leave with no deal at the end of October).
However, its purpose is not to reveal money hidden in offshore accounts.
The directive has five key legal aspects relating to:
limiting interest (capping the amount of tax deductible interest a company can have),
the rules around exit taxation (the taxes on companies when they leave a country),
the rules around controlled foreign companies (to stop the diverting of profits to low-tax countries),
general anti-abuse rules (to counter ‘aggressive tax planning’ that doesn’t necessarily break any specific rules), and;
rules on hybrid mismatches (when companies exploit the differences between countries’ tax systems).
Broadly, the new directive is intended to prevent corporate tax avoidance practices, and has been planned since 2015. It “aims to address situations where corporate groups take advantage of disparities between national tax systems” to reduce the amount of tax they have to pay.In practice, this aims to tackle large companies shifting profits from the EU country in which they were made to a country with a lower tax rate or “preferential” rules. This could be another EU country, or a non-EU country.
So these policies are about tightening up “systemic issues” to do with tax law in EU countries, to make it harder for companies to practice what the EU calls “aggressive tax planning”.
Same as the hedge fund - its proven and admitted.
As I said spread by the ill informed
Er… didn’t you post the link?
Mefty, that article seems a bit biased. Royal Mail has been hit by Brexit - Mr Crispin has been shorting companies that are vulnerable. To say that he's not involved because remain hedge fund managers are in on it is a bit deceptive - hedge fund managers of any political persuasion will hop on where they see the market going. That doesn't rule out Crispin playing political games to stack it in his favor.
Here is a counter argument by Bloomberg that makes a similar case to begin with - but then goes further and diverges, I'd rather side with Bloomberg than Forbes.
The fund team my wife works in seem to agree with the Bloomberg take.
Who’s going to post the C4 Odey clip?
Er… didn’t you post the link?
He doesn't seem to have understood it. He only partially quotes it.
Here is a counter argument by Bloomberg that makes a similar case to begin with – but then goes further and diverges, I’d rather side with Bloomberg than Forbes.
It is not a counter argument, it is a completely different one - no doubt there are plenty of people in the City who would like to see a new regulatory framework. But if it comes to believing the staunchy remain FT, who do have some understanding of how these markets work, and a lefty remainer like Coppola, compared to Byline who have never seen a conspiracy theory they don't like - it is not really much a competition.
Who’s going to post the C4 Odey clip?
Do they have one with David Harding as well, whose funds made even more I believe, he was of course one of the biggest donors to the Remain campaign?
It's a shit article Mefty - for example towards the end it attempts to obfuscate political lobbying by stating that the hedge fund bets don't exist - so therefore there is no political lobbying going on. That or the writers thinking is just muddled.
So this is yet another a tin-foil-hat conspiracy theory. But no doubt it will continue to run. Already, the opposition Labour party has called for an inquiry into Johnson’s “conflict of interest.” It is fair to say that financial backing from companies that hope to profit from a no-deal Brexit, even though there is no evidence that they have has yet placed significant bets to that effect, places Johnson under some psychological pressure to deliver what they want even at the expense of the best interests of the country. But if he is any good as a Prime Minister, he will resist this. And if he isn’t, then he shouldn’t be in the job.
The bolded sections are an attempt to obfuscate and misdirect the reader - away from the fact that Boris could well be being played like a puppet by his backers. The Bloomberg article is better, it starts out more or less the same - but doesn't end with the shit, muddled conclusion of the Forbes article.
The idea that hedge fund backers are betting on brexit might be a bit of a conspiracy theory, but really - what it amounts to is a clumsy attempt to explain what is actually potentially going on.
Make sure you stockpile the tin foil hats!!
Do they have one with David Harding as well, whose funds made even more I believe, he was of course one of the biggest donors to the Remain campaign?
Come on, do you not think we can see straight past that? Whatever happens, fund managers will do what needs doing to make money. That isn’t the same as trying to make things happen to make money off the back of them. Odey is playing key Tories in order to make money (at our expense).
Make sure you stockpile the tin foil hats!!
Make your point without being rude, if you can.
I tend to dislike conspiracy loons as much as any rationalist or scientist mefty - I just think it takes a leap of faith to think that political lobbying isn't going on. We know it does, it's been documented countless times.
Odey was great in the C4 doc. Well worth watching.
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/tories-at-war/on-demand/69801-001